TL Proposal: Iran Saudi war

Well, to have this happen, wouldn't you need the Iran-Iraq War to be butterflied? In 1984 and 1985, both years you have chosen, Iran was at war with Iraq. Why would they start a war against Saudi Arabia, when they already have one. While I understand that OTL in the 2000's the United States sustained two major wars, but modern Day America is a very different story from the recently established Islamic government in Iran. Is Iran powerful? I would say so, but not that powerful.

Maybe Saudi Arabia could choose to go to war with Iran?

There’s a relatively straightforward way of doing this: Iraq loses the Iran-Iraq War and the Iranians take Baghdad. For a POD, if one of the Islamic Dawa Party’s efforts to kill Saddam bears fruit at a critical moment and the state falls into chaos, it could happen. Basrah falls, the Kurdish revolt goes into full swing, etc. The Saudis regard all of this as an existential threat and intervene in force in Iraq to create a buffer zone. There’s your war.
 
There’s a relatively straightforward way of doing this: Iraq loses the Iran-Iraq War and the Iranians take Baghdad
that would certainly get the Saudis involved... and Kuwait and the Gulf States and the US for certain and possibly Egypt as well. Having Iran conquer Iraq and be in striking distance of the other gulf states was a nightmare scenario for just about everyone back then...
 

nbcman

Donor
That was Kuwiat though, not Iran.

The war would destablise the entire Middle East as Iranian aligned groups get drawn in, and also involve substantial military action in the Persian Gulf, which carries 20% of the worlds Oil. Iran could easily disrupt shipping even under American bombardment with surface-to-sea missiles. Getting rid of those would probably require boots on the ground, especially if the Soviets end up helping Iran.
In the 1980s, Iran had antagonized both the US (aka the Great Satan) and the Soviets (the Lesser Satan) by their actions. There may be a negotiation between the US and Soviets that allows the US a free hand in Iran up to a certain point in return for the US stopping their support as well as other country's support of the Mujahideen in Afganistan.
 
Iran is not Iraq. It’d be like Afganistan x10 for the US
i think i saw an old ahc that discussed that.
they used the numbers of soldiers in iraq and afhanistan to try and extrapolate the numbers for a possible occupation of iran.
basically you would have to reinstate the draft to occupy the oil producing regions plus teheran, and that's not even counting the quality differences between Iraqi and iranian armies, and their preparations.
Of course, they were talking about a 2006-2008 iran, not an iran in the 80s, but i guess finding the thread would be a tad useful.
 
My 2 cents:

Shiite rebellion in 1991 is not snuffed out but also doenst overthow Saddam. It looks something like modern day Syria. Eventually things escalate into full fledged war for some reason, bonus points if it involves Qatar.

For interesting butterflies, this probably kills the decline in oil prices and the peace dividend of the 1990s. Clinton might lose re-election, tech bubble might be more subdued, Asian economic growth never takes off (no Asian Contagion either though). All these things are debatable but for whatever you disagree with here, there are probably 10 other butterflies you can introduce.
 

kernals12

Banned
My 2 cents:

Shiite rebellion in 1991 is not snuffed out but also doenst overthow Saddam. It looks something like modern day Syria. Eventually things escalate into full fledged war for some reason, bonus points if it involves Qatar.

For interesting butterflies, this probably kills the decline in oil prices and the peace dividend of the 1990s. Clinton might lose re-election, tech bubble might be more subdued, Asian economic growth never takes off (no Asian Contagion either though). All these things are debatable but for whatever you disagree with here, there are probably 10 other butterflies you can introduce.
In 1991, Iraq's oil was not important to world markets thanks to international sanctions. I don't know how Clinton would lose re-election or how this would subdue the tech bubble or prevent and Asian economic take off that started decades earlier.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Iraq should be neutral to make this somehow interesting, so let's start talking naval invasion, with sealion-style crazy invasion plans ...
 
It is ASB for Saudis to fight a war without allies, especially the US.
On paper they are 250,000 plus men and equiped with the latest weapons and should be up there with ISreal, Turkey and Egypt in terms of power.
The reality is that they are woefully under trained and incompetent.
If houti tribesmen can raid over the border into Saudia, armed with technicals and kalashnikovs and ATGMS
engage a mechanized saudi force with tanks, artillery support and air superiority, beat them sensless and proceed to loot their equipment i wonder how they will face a real army?
 

kernals12

Banned
It is ASB for Saudis to fight a war without allies, especially the US.
On paper they are 250,000 plus men and equiped with the latest weapons and should be up there with ISreal, Turkey and Egypt in terms of power.
The reality is that they are woefully under trained and incompetent.
If houti tribesmen can raid over the border into Saudia, armed with technicals and kalashnikovs and ATGMS
engage a mechanized saudi force with tanks, artillery support and air superiority, beat them sensless and proceed to loot their equipment i wonder how they will face a real army?
The Reagan administration would never allow Saudi Arabia to get invaded.
 
In 1991, Iraq's oil was not important to world markets thanks to international sanctions. I don't know how Clinton would lose re-election or how this would subdue the tech bubble or prevent and Asian economic take off that started decades earlier.

A war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 92-94ish time frame would have a dramatic impact on the price of oil. How much and how long depends upon your butterflies and imagination.
 
In the 1980s, Iran had antagonized both the US (aka the Great Satan) and the Soviets (the Lesser Satan) by their actions. There may be a negotiation between the US and Soviets that allows the US a free hand in Iran up to a certain point in return for the US stopping their support as well as other country's support of the Mujahideen in Afganistan.
What's on offer? Permanent Iranian neutrality post-war? South Azerbaijan annexed to or puppetized by the USSR?
 
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