TL Proposal: Iran Saudi war

kernals12

Banned
Recent events have made me consider writing a timeline about Iran and Saudi Arabia going to war at some time in the 1980s, specifically 1984 or 1985. Anyone have any good PODs (the most obvious one would be Iran attacking a Saudi oil tanker and then the Saudis shooting 4 Iranian jets, but I don't know how close that came to leading to war) or any idea about whether the US would invade Iran?
 
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Well, to have this happen, wouldn't you need the Iran-Iraq War to be butterflied? In 1984 and 1985, both years you have chosen, Iran was at war with Iraq. Why would they start a war against Saudi Arabia, when they already have one. While I understand that OTL in the 2000's the United States sustained two major wars, but modern Day America is a very different story from the recently established Islamic government in Iran. Is Iran powerful? I would say so, but not that powerful.
 

kernals12

Banned
Well, to have this happen, wouldn't you need the Iran-Iraq War to be butterflied? In 1984 and 1985, both years you have chosen, Iran was at war with Iraq. Why would they start a war against Saudi Arabia, when they already have one. While I understand that OTL in the 2000's the United States sustained two major wars, but modern Day America is a very different story from the recently established Islamic government in Iran. Is Iran powerful? I would say so, but not that powerful.
Maybe Saudi Arabia could choose to go to war with Iran?
 
Maybe Saudi Arabia could choose to go to war with Iran?

That could happen, but from what I know (and I will admit this period of history is not my strongest) Iraq and Saudi Arabia have had bad blood for a good bit, hell America couldn't have occupied Kuwait so quickly if it wasn't for all the support and bases in Saudi Arabia. While I can see the Saudis fighting Iran, I don't see it happening unless you butterfly the Iran-Iraq War
 

kernals12

Banned
The thing that interests me the most is the impact of the resulting energy crisis. If this war begins in 1984, the world economy is plunged into recession and Reagan could lose to Mondale.
 

kernals12

Banned
Sorry, I just read the US promised it would intervene if the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded. This means it would just be like the Gulf War and too short and boring to warrant a thread.:(
 
POD: instead of the 1988 USS Vincennes incident, a Saudi Air Force jet accidentally shoots down an Iranian passenger jet full of pilgrims on their way to Hajj. This ignites much bigger and deadlier Mecca riots, Saudi embassies are attacked and burned to the ground in Iran, and things go downhill from there.
 
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Given the world situation right now the thread will probably get derailed by posters discussing current politics. I imagine Iraq would jump in to seize southeastern Iran which is occupied by Shiite Arabs
 
Well, to have this happen, wouldn't you need the Iran-Iraq War to be butterflied? In 1984 and 1985, both years you have chosen, Iran was at war with Iraq. Why would they start a war against Saudi Arabia, when they already have one. While I understand that OTL in the 2000's the United States sustained two major wars, but modern Day America is a very different story from the recently established Islamic government in Iran. Is Iran powerful? I would say so, but not that powerful.
Quite the opposite. The Iran-Iraq war was a massive source of contention for Saudi-Iranian relations.

Saudi Arabia backed Iraq with money and weapons, and as tensions rose both sides became increasingly confrontational. They continuously violated each other’s airspace and Iran even attempted bombing Saudi oil fields and oil tankers. As mentioned in the OP this got so bad that this actually spilled into aerial combat.

Things got very close to war OTL
 

Deleted member 9338

Those were the good old days when the US thought it could fix the world I know as I was in the Mediterranean with a few hundred other sailors trying to do that.

Your potetinial conflict was not only a possibility, but a major concern in the military and State Department. It was important to keep Saudi Arabia neutral as they did not want Americans on the ground in Arabia in case of a larger war.

While Iran was a major regional player at the time, a war with Saudi Arabia would of mostly involved missle boats and aircraft over the Persian Gulf. Arabia has quality, Iran numbers.
 

kernals12

Banned
Iran is not Iraq. It’d be like Afganistan x10 for the US
The US wouldn't try to take Tehran, but they would utterly destroy Iran's airfields, shipyards, transportation and communications networks, and army barracks. I wanted a years long war that cut the world off from the Persian gulf's oil supplies. I even had energy crisis articles ready to go "British coal mines reopen thanks to energy crunch" "GM to kill off all V8 rear drive cars by 1992" "Colorado shale rocks become endless supply of fuel" "President Reagan reluctantly agrees to end sanctions on Soviet oil"
 
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The US wouldn't try to take Tehran, but they would utterly destroy Iran's airfields, shipyards, transportation and communications networks, and army barracks. I wanted a years long war that cut the world off from the Persian gulf's oil supplies. I even had energy crisis articles ready to go "British coal mines reopen thanks to energy crunch" "GM to kill off all V8 rear drive cars by 1992" "Colorado shale rocks become endless supply of fuel" "President Reagan reluctantly agrees to end sanctions on Soviet oil"
Even that would cause global economic disaster
 
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait led to a doubling of oil prices that lasted just 6 months
That was Kuwiat though, not Iran.

The war would destablise the entire Middle East as Iranian aligned groups get drawn in, and also involve substantial military action in the Persian Gulf, which carries 20% of the worlds Oil. Iran could easily disrupt shipping even under American bombardment with surface-to-sea missiles. Getting rid of those would probably require boots on the ground, especially if the Soviets end up helping Iran.
 

kernals12

Banned
That was Kuwiat though, not Iran.

The war would destablise the entire Middle East as Iranian aligned groups get drawn in, and also involve substantial military action in the Persian Gulf, which carries 20% of the worlds Oil. Iran could easily disrupt shipping even under American bombardment with surface-to-sea missiles. Getting rid of those would probably require boots on the ground, especially if the Soviets end up helping Iran.
The increase in prices accounted not only for the loss of Kuwaiti output but also fears about the Saudi oilfields being seized.
 
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