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TL: President Vandenberg 1940

PoD: early May/June 1940, FDR dies. John Garner becomes the new POTUS, but he and Henry Wallace split the Democratic party vote, while after a free-wheeling convention Arthur Vandenberg (one of the front runners IOTL) takes the Republican nomination and wins the election. Garner is unable to push though the oil embargo on Japan.

Vandenberg is (was IOTL) a staunch isolationist. There will be no Lend-Lease act ITTL.

Britain is on its own. Japan continues to fight in China, and can buy oil from the DEI - no need to declare war on the UK and the Netherlands, which means no need to declare war on the US.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_H._Vandenberg

The 1940 Election:
As an example use OTL, with the following shifts: Vandenberg gets Willkie's votes, plus 1% of votes cast. Wallace gets FDRs votes, minus 1% of votes cast and minus 10% of Democratic votes cast. Garner gets 10% of the Democratic votes.

This will give Vandenberg 306 electoral votes (266 needed to win). Critical to his victory is Pennsylvania, which he wins by just 13,000 votes out of over 4 million. Connecticut is even closer - he wins by just 1,100 votes out of 780,000.

The 1% shift represents the "No FDR" factor as well as Vandenberg not having Willkie's platform/personal conflicts. Garner's 10% of the Democratic vote represents his incumbent advantage, and refusal to cave to Wallace. This is critical - without him as a spoiler, even a 3% shift doesn't put Vandenberg over the top.

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