TL Planning - No 9/11: Effects

No it's not

Show me a single leader in the Arab Spring using the fall of Saddam Hussein as a rallying cry in Egypt, Libya, or Tunisia. If it indeed "caused" the Arab Spring from anything other than butterfly effect then logically the fall of Saddam would have being a mainstream topic within the Arab revolutions with lots and lots of discussions on it. If anything, the disaster that was the Iraq occupation helped discredit the idea of overthrowing dictators. The whole "Iraq caused Arab spring" thing is just neoconservative apologism based on a conjecture with no evidence backing it up.


I am NOT making neoconservative apologism. I am just observing what I percieve to be a cause, (The ouster of Hussein) and an effect (The overthrow of several Arab tyrannies that, until then had been pretty well entrenched.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I realize that, but can you show me deffinative alternate cause?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Motivations
Numerous factors have led to the protests, including issues such as dictatorship or absolute monarchy, human rights violations, government corruption (demonstrated by Wikileaks diplomatic cables),[132] economic decline, unemployment, extreme poverty, and a number of demographic structural factors,[133] such as a large percentage of educated but dissatisfied youth within the population.[134] Also, some, like Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Zizek attribute the 2009 Iranian protests as one of the reasons behind the Arab Spring.[135] The catalysts for the revolts in all Northern African and Persian Gulf countries have been the concentration of vince in the hands of autocrats in power for decades, insufficient transparency of its redistribution, corruption, and especially the refusal of the youth to accept the status quo.[136] Increasing food prices and global famine rates have also been a significant factor, as they involve threats to food security worldwide and prices that approach levels of the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.[137] Amnesty International singled out Wikileaks' release of US diplomatic cables as a catalyst for the revolts.[138]
In recent decades rising living standards and literacy rates, as well as the increased availability of higher education, have resulted in an improved human development index in the affected countries. The tension between rising aspirations and a lack of government reform may have been a contributing factor in all of the protests.[136][139][140] Many of the Internet-savvy youth of these countries have, increasingly over the years, been viewing autocrats and absolute monarchies as anachronisms. A university professor of Oman, Al-Najma Zidjaly referred to this upheaval as youthquake.[136]
Tunisia and Egypt, the first to witness major uprisings, differ from other North African and Middle Eastern nations such as Algeria and Libya in that they lack significant oil revenue, and were thus unable to make concessions to calm the masses.[136]

Oh come on this is some stupid "I'm right unless you type up on essay explaining a complicated topic that incidentally I can read up on myself if I spend 5 seconds using google thing". The burden of proof doesn't lay on the other person to prove your baseless conjecture wrong when you have no evidence backing it up in the first place.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Motivations


Oh come on this is some stupid "I'm right unless you type up on essay explaining a complicated topic that incidentally I can read up on myself if I spend 5 seconds using google thing". The burden of proof doesn't lay on the other person to prove your baseless conjecture wrong when you have no evidence backing it up in the first place.

NO, THIS IS,

"I do not know the topic at hand, could you please educate me so that my ignorance can be rectified."

And you could have done that WITHOUT being a smug smarmy jerk.
 
I'm sorry :(
Apology accepted.

Note for the future, I call myself a eternal Student of history specifically because there is much I do not know and am willing to learn. I am very aware of my own ignorance on many subjects and am eager for that condition to be rectified.
 
Cutting that from Spiderman 1 was actually a good idea from a marketing standpoint but if left in would have established the Marvel-verse as one VERY different from ours.
.

Actually, i think its been clarified that that scene was just made for the trailer (since it couldnt really fit anywhere in the film proper).
 

Hyperion

Banned
One thing to consider.

Even if 9/11, the Afghan War, and possibly even the Iraq War are all butterflied away, the US and British would still be conducting Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch over Iraq, hitting air defense systems, radar and SAM sites, occasionally engaging the odd Iraqi MiG or Mirage, and occasionally conducting the odd heavy strike on a command and control target.

While the Iraqi defenses may have not been that great, if this low intensity No-Fly Zone conflict continues well beyond 2003, what are the odds that at some point an Iraqi SAM site operator, or even the odd fighter pilot, might get lucky and shoot down a US or British aircraft, either capturing or killing the pilot(s).
 
One thing to consider.

Even if 9/11, the Afghan War, and possibly even the Iraq War are all butterflied away, the US and British would still be conducting Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch over Iraq, hitting air defense systems, radar and SAM sites, occasionally engaging the odd Iraqi MiG or Mirage, and occasionally conducting the odd heavy strike on a command and control target.

While the Iraqi defenses may have not been that great, if this low intensity No-Fly Zone conflict continues well beyond 2003, what are the odds that at some point an Iraqi SAM site operator, or even the odd fighter pilot, might get lucky and shoot down a US or British aircraft, either capturing or killing the pilot(s).

If Arab Spring happens in this timeline (A whole decade of butterflies to play with here), I guess that means we can see UN involvement in both Libya and Iraq.
 

JoeMulk

Banned
Bush is probably a one-term president. I base this on his pre-9/11 approval polls and the fact the economy would have dominated the discussion without any focus on the War on Terrorism or the eventual Iraq War (as the latter would be difficult to justify without a renewed interest in global threats).

Of course, without 9/11 & potentially the subsequent wars, the Democratic Primary probably takes on a vastly different look. Howard Dean, who rose to popularity because of his opposition to the Iraq War, probably doesn't get near the level of support because, in almost every other issue, he'd challenge to separate himself from the other Democrats.

In peacetime though there wouldn't be much appeal for Kerry either so maybe the Democrats nominate John Edwards or Dick Gephart since both would have had an economically populist message and probably would have won.
 
One thing that was taking place, was that many people felt that there was a Second Cold War developing between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Just remember that there had been flareups after a U.S. reconnaisance flight was captured by Chinese PLA forces. You had tensions mounting between the U.S. and China over North Korea...
 
If Arab Spring happens in this timeline (A whole decade of butterflies to play with here), I guess that means we can see UN involvement in both Libya and Iraq.

Hmmm that might be interesting. Say does anyone out there have any info on what/how that might be ouched off? I am sorry, but I don't know how that would get kicked off.
 
Hmmm that might be interesting. Say does anyone out there have any info on what/how that might be ouched off? I am sorry, but I don't know how that would get kicked off.

There's a shit ton of butterflies. It was a lot of little things that got fired off by one tiny event. That's how most revolution breaks out. The problem is some of this is going to be lost. Less of a focus on Islamic extremism in everyone's minds because there was no devastating reminder that they exist.

Arab Spring was moderate Muslims making a voice for themselves and refusing to accept the secular dictators or the Muslim extremists.

Wikileaks also played a role in getting things started in North Africa. There were also the 2009 Iranian protests which pretty much showed every dictator the basics for being an asshole in the digital age.

There's going to eventually be a rise up against these dictators, but it may be delayed or on a smaller scale.
 
There's a shit ton of butterflies. It was a lot of little things that got fired off by one tiny event. That's how most revolution breaks out. The problem is some of this is going to be lost. Less of a focus on Islamic extremism in everyone's minds because there was no devastating reminder that they exist.

Arab Spring was moderate Muslims making a voice for themselves and refusing to accept the secular dictators or the Muslim extremists.

Wikileaks also played a role in getting things started in North Africa. There were also the 2009 Iranian protests which pretty much showed every dictator the basics for being an asshole in the digital age.

There's going to eventually be a rise up against these dictators, but it may be delayed or on a smaller scale.

O.K., I can see that, and I can also see it being delayed by a general lack of extreme cassus belli.
 
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