TL 191 WI: What if the December Plot had been successful?

[Enigmajones]

So if you’ve never read Harry Turtledove’s Southern Victory books this isn’t the thread for you.

So basically the question is, what if the December Plot, Willy Knights coup attempt against Jake Featherston, had succeeded and Willy Knight had become President of the CSA, how would the world of TL 191 differ from the books?

 

[Pera]

Basically the difference between Franco and Hitler. Willy Knight seems to me not as genocidal and ruthless as Featherston, not the type to attack the US. Might die of old age in 1960-70, afterwards there might be multiparty elections again and even transition to democracy, depends on what is seen as successful in the world of TL191.

 

[Enigmajones]

Basically the difference between Franco and Hitler. Willy Knight seems to me not as genocidal and ruthless as Featherston, not the type to attack the US. Might die of old age in 1960-70, afterwards there might be multiparty elections again and even transition to democracy, depends on what is seen as successful in the world of TL191.

Do you think that Knight would likely advocate for the same plebiscites that Featherston had in the late 1930’s? Given that since his power base was supposedly in the Western states it makes me think he would advocate for the return of Houston and potentially Sequoyah.

 

[bguy]

Knight may not be in power all that long. Ferdinand Koenig will probably suspect Knight's complicity in Featherston's assassination and Koenig has his own pretty strong powerbase given his control of the Justice Department and the Freedom Party organization (which means he should have control of most of the Stalwarts and the Freedom Party Guards.) Koenig is also likely to have some powerful allies in the Confederate military since we know that after the removal of General Stuart, Featherson started moving his own people into the command positions in the army. In particular Hank Coomer, the commander of the Army of Northern Virginia in the Second Great War was said to be a longtime Freedom Party member. We don't know if Coomer was already in command of the ANV by late 1938, but if he was that then means the most powerful Confederate military formation in the Richmond area is in the hands of a hard core Freedom Party member. (i.e. someone that is probably more inclined to side with Koenig than Knight if it comes down to a power struggle between them.) Thus if Knight doesn't quickly have Koenig assassinated there's a good chance Koenig will be able to launch a successful countercoup.

 

[Enigmajones]

Knight may not be in power all that long. Ferdinand Koenig will probably suspect Knight's complicity in Featherston's assassination and Koenig has his own pretty strong powerbase given his control of the Justice Department and the Freedom Party organization (which means he should have control of most of the Stalwarts and the Freedom Party Guards.) Koenig is also likely to have some powerful allies in the Confederate military since we know that after the removal of General Stuart, Featherson started moving his own people into the command positions in the army. In particular Hank Coomer, the commander of the Army of Northern Virginia in the Second Great War was said to be a longtime Freedom Party member. We don't know if Coomer was already in command of the ANV by late 1938, but if he was that then means the most powerful Confederate military formation in the Richmond area is in the hands of a hard core Freedom Party member. (i.e. someone that is probably more inclined to side with Koenig than Knight if it comes down to a power struggle between them.) Thus if Knight doesn't quickly have Koenig assassinated there's a good chance Koenig will be able to launch a successful countercoup.

Is it stated in the books if anyone powerful were complicit in the assassination attempt? Maybe people from the old days in the Redemption League, or his loyal members of the Freedom Party Stalwarts?

 

[bguy]

Is it stated in the books if anyone powerful were complicit in the assassination attempt? Maybe people from the old days in the Redemption League, or his loyal members of the Freedom Party Stalwarts?

I don't think any of Knight's co-conspirators were ever described. Amos Mizell generally seemed friendly with Knight and also seemed to be troubled by the cult of personality that was developing around Featherston even as far back as during the 1933 presidential election, so it's easy to imagine him backing the plot, but I don't know if Mizell was even still alive by the time of the December Plot let alone if he had any influence at that time. (Mizell's last appearance is in The Center Cannot Hold, and I don't think he is even mentioned in any of the later books.)

 

[Jett-Power]

TBH, I don't see Knight being all that different from Featherston. He claimed that he was saving the Confederacy from a dictator while he was in Camp Dependable, but in actuality, he was silent about the oppression of blacks and opposition parties and would have continued it if his coup had succeeded. Remember, Knight turned on Featherston because Featherston didn't let him run in the 1939 election, not because he was against a dictator. And if you think Knight wouldn't go to war with the US, remember he created the Redemption League for the same reasons why Featherston joined the Freedom Party, to rule the Confederacy with an iron fist and defeat the US in the next war. Knight may have not been as brutal as Featherston, but a tyrant is still a tyrant.

 

[bguy]

TBH, I don't see Knight being all that different from Featherston. He claimed that he was saving the Confederacy from a dictator while he was in Camp Dependable, but in actuality, he was silent about the oppression of blacks and opposition parties and would have continued it if his coup had succeeded. Remember, Knight turned on Featherston because Featherston didn't let him run in the 1939 election, not because he was against a dictator. And if you think Knight wouldn't go to war with the US, remember he created the Redemption League for the same reasons why Featherston joined the Freedom Party, to rule the Confederacy with an iron fist and defeat the US in the next war. Knight may have not been as brutal as Featherston, but a tyrant is still a tyrant.

The one key difference is Knight doesn't have quite the same level of drive/stubbornness that Featherson does. Thus Knight might actually have been satisfied with the CSA's substantial gains from the Richmond Agreement and not gone to war with the US shortly thereafter to reclaim territory that just demonstrated it doesn't want to be part of the CSA.

 

[Jett-Power]

The one key difference is Knight doesn't have quite the same level of drive/stubbornness that Featherson does. Thus Knight might actually have been satisfied with the CSA's substantial gains from the Richmond Agreement and not gone to war with the US shortly thereafter to reclaim territory that just demonstrated it doesn't want to be part of the CSA.

That is possible, but it is possible Knight would still go to war with the US anyway.

 

[Pera]

That is possible, but it is possible Knight would still go to war with the US anyway.

A ruthless dictator can still avoid a big war not because of any moral qualms but because realizing the power of the USA is vastly greater and chances of success were slim. Just like Mao, Franco, Stalin were risk-averse in some way.

 

[Enigmajones]

I thought it was interesting difference I recalled after checking the Turtledove Wiki, is the fashion choice difference between Featherston and Knight, at Featherston's inauguration Featherston wore basically the same uniform as the Stalwarts, and later wore the grey uniform of the Freedom Party Guards, but Knight wore the uniform of a field marshal.

Another point, should war break out between Knight's Confederacy and the USA, will he be as present on the front as Featherston was?

 

[Lalli]

That is possible, but it is possible Knight would still go to war with the US anyway.

Even if he would be brutal dictator he might not be stupid enough go to war against USA. Ruthless and totalitarian dictator is not necessarility stupid one who decides fight with stronger guy.

 

[BarrelBuster]

imagine the Confederate Forces been joined the coup by set up barricades arrest any Freedom Party commanders for this plot to succeed.