TL-191 WI: The Second Mexican War was actually against Mexico?
- Thread starter rob2001
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A lot of names for events, including wars, start out as misnomers or half-correct.
If you look at the Mexican-American War that occurred between 1846-1848, it was called the "Mexican War", instead of the former's more accurate name. I suppose that for the average, ignorant American citizen, it was a shorter and faster way of naming it.
Well, I suppose the first thing to ask is why are they fighting? Is the US trying to take more land from Mexico, or is Mexico trying to reconquer the US Southwest, or is it something else entirely?
Secondly, how have the alliances between various nations formed up at the start of the war? Is the United States and the Confederate States somehow fighting on the same side against Mexico, England, and France? (Didn't Harry Harrison write a book something like that?)
If it is just a war between the US and Mexico, I think that the US would still beat the Second Mexican Empire, eventhough the US maybe somewhat weaker due having recently lost the War of Cession with the CSA. Just my two cents.
Hm. Even if it was just a war between Mexico and the United States, you'd really have to consider why they would fight each other.
The reason why the United States declared a war against the Confederate States was over the purchase of Sonora and Chihuahua from the Mexican Empire. The Mexican Hapsburgs were strapped for cash trying to maintain power in Mexico since Napoleon III's intervention succeeded in propping him up. The Mexican Emperor and his government needed money and the Confederacy wanted to expand its territory westward to have access to the Pacific ocean, much like the United States had access to the Pacific via California through San Francisco. And while Baja California is in the way and may create a possible choke-point for the Mexicans to exploit, the Confederacy is in a much more powerful, stable position than Mexico and the two countries are very closely allied with each other. I doubt the Mexican Emperor would risk a war with the Confederacy just to extort them over more money, especially since I don't believe they have the means to really do so.
The only reasons I can see the US and The Mexican Empire duking it out one-on-one would be over serious border clashes or border disputes near southern California and the New Mexico, either over indian tribes crossing open borders or over disagreements with how to draw a line between what was who's. Remember this war takes place in 1881, a time where states weren't really states yet and patrolling the frontiers here were fairly hard.
Either way I don't believe the Confederacy would just let their closest neighbor and ally be attacked by the US without a say. The Mexican Empire is too weak to take on the US in this timeline, so I don't believe they'd be the aggressor. The US would probably be the most likely candidate to escalate things invade Mexico over land, but what would they be taking? Baja California? Sonora?
Well... I can see the US declaring war on Mexico to pre-empt any attempt of the Confederacy to buy Sonora and Chihuahua, but then they'd risk seriously angering the French and the British. After all the Monroe Doctrine is a joke in the timeline and and the US is not in a strong position to really wave its big stick around without offending the Confederacy, the British, and the French. Especially the French actually. Napoleon III would not like that.
So if the US goes to war with Mexico exclusively and the Confederacy doesn't get involved, it still has to go to war with France and British Empire. They're not going to let the US just attack Mexico. They're the big players in this world, the Great Powers with the big empires that see everything.
The reason why the United States declared a war against the Confederate States was over the purchase of Sonora and Chihuahua from the Mexican Empire. The Mexican Hapsburgs were strapped for cash trying to maintain power in Mexico since Napoleon III's intervention succeeded in propping him up. The Mexican Emperor and his government needed money and the Confederacy wanted to expand its territory westward to have access to the Pacific ocean, much like the United States had access to the Pacific via California through San Francisco. And while Baja California is in the way and may create a possible choke-point for the Mexicans to exploit, the Confederacy is in a much more powerful, stable position than Mexico and the two countries are very closely allied with each other. I doubt the Mexican Emperor would risk a war with the Confederacy just to extort them over more money, especially since I don't believe they have the means to really do so.
The only reasons I can see the US and The Mexican Empire duking it out one-on-one would be over serious border clashes or border disputes near southern California and the New Mexico, either over indian tribes crossing open borders or over disagreements with how to draw a line between what was who's. Remember this war takes place in 1881, a time where states weren't really states yet and patrolling the frontiers here were fairly hard.
Either way I don't believe the Confederacy would just let their closest neighbor and ally be attacked by the US without a say. The Mexican Empire is too weak to take on the US in this timeline, so I don't believe they'd be the aggressor. The US would probably be the most likely candidate to escalate things invade Mexico over land, but what would they be taking? Baja California? Sonora?
Well... I can see the US declaring war on Mexico to pre-empt any attempt of the Confederacy to buy Sonora and Chihuahua, but then they'd risk seriously angering the French and the British. After all the Monroe Doctrine is a joke in the timeline and and the US is not in a strong position to really wave its big stick around without offending the Confederacy, the British, and the French. Especially the French actually. Napoleon III would not like that.
So if the US goes to war with Mexico exclusively and the Confederacy doesn't get involved, it still has to go to war with France and British Empire. They're not going to let the US just attack Mexico. They're the big players in this world, the Great Powers with the big empires that see everything.
I think it was called the Second Mexican War because the casus belli for the war involved Mexico. Sometimes, the names of wars are dictated by what is believed to cause the war. 'The War of Jenkins' Ear', anyone? What I don't know is why it's called the 'Second' Mexican War.
I mean I get that, it just that there surely should've been more suitable names given that the two big iconic events of the war took place in Louisville and the Canadian border.
If the war is against Mexico and America performs similiarily to how they do in the book Mexico probably gets the Gadsden area back and maybe San Diego plus an indemnity. Money problem is solved, Max gains some much needed prestige and loyalty of the Mexican people and America gets its pecker slapped. Everyone is happy (except America).
Its acknowledging the fact that the "first" Mexican War had already occurred, when the United States was still actually united and President Polk led the country into, in our time line, what is called the "Mexican American War". You know, the one from 1846-1848? The one where we took Texas, California, and other territories from Mexico.
Harry Turtledove is saying this is the "second" war that involves Mexico.
You got a point. In either case I can't see a war between the United States and Mexico in this timeline without some kind involvement or intervention from another nation. If not the Confederates, then probably France or Britain since they have a lot more interest in affairs in North America now.
France makes sense because Mexico is a client state. The CSA makes sense because they don't want the USA to grow too powerful and swallow them back up.
Britain makes no sense though. Why even declare war if they aren't to make any moves to safeguard Canada? Is northern Maine really worth American enmity?
If Britain gets involved she's going to make sure America isn't a threat to her, or she won't join at all.
To make this work, you need to charge the causes of the war. Have Maximilian be throw out of power and the Mexican Republicans take over the nation. Instead of Mexico selling Sonora and Chihuahua (Which I doubt Maximilian would have done as it would have alienated much of his support. The Mexican people got pissed at Santa Anna for selling the whole northern half to the USA. How do you think they react to Maximilian doing the same thing? ) the war is due to the CSA and France trying to restore the House of Habsburg-Lorraine to Mexico with America supporting the Republicans and have Mexico as a ally to try and block the CSA.
Cool, fair enough then.
Hey if anyone can help me out: I'm new here and I want to create a new topic thread for more TL-191 stuff, but I don't know how to create a new topic thread for discussion. If anyone know, please PLEASE, don't be shy and drop a reply. I really like Turtledove's series here and I want to share some ideas with y'all.
San Diego in this period was a backwater in a wasteland full of not much else. Why would Mexico want more of that when the whole purpose of selling the two northern provinces was to trim off some of that wasteland and associated costs while getting a nice fat check from the C.S. Treasury Department? Also, adding in Gadsden above Confederate Sonora and Chihuaha would just make the map look weird.
Not that I've actually looked inside the book since like 2001, but I'm pretty sure France's interests in Mexico disappeared along with the Napoleon III's Second Empire in 1870, and the Confederacy, with a quiet understanding from the new republican government in Paris, sort of just took France's place.
Britain and France join in the first place for the moralistic reason that they're aiding a smaller, sympathetic power being pushed around by an aggressive larger power, and for the more tangible geopolitical reason that keeping North America divided is a good thing. For Britain and France.
The OP sad that the war in his scenario is the USA against Mexico, so as empty and barren as San Diego is, it was still known to be a good deep water port. Other than that and Gadsden there isn't really anything else for Mexico to feasibly take. My suggestion imples that the war is against Mexico and that it wasn't set up by Confederate expansionism.
Honestly, Britain would probably sit the whole thing out. And if they do intervene, they're going to knock the Americans down a peg or not intervene at all. There are plenty of times where Britain let smaller states get kicked around because they didn't have a dog in the fight (Russia and the Ottomans (1877 comes to mind)
Okay. But then why would TL-191 USA want a war with Mexico? They already have clear access to the Pacific and Asian markets with California and Oregon.
If it was strictly a US-Mexican affair, probably.
That was literally the casus belli they cited for entering the Second Mexican War. Longstreet's promise to manumit the slaves in a year wasn't the trigger; the US making the first aggressive military move was.
I have no idea. We're discussing a hypothetical war in a world where the fictional war would have never broken out to begin with.
Indeed. Either way, I believe you can't have a second Mexican-American War without the CSA getting seriously concerned about it, with threats being sent to the US capital from Richmond. Just no getting around that I guess.