TL 191 WI: Great Britain stays out of the Great War

What if the United Kingdom had not enter The Great War in 1914, but had stay neutral? (Germany does not enter Belgium, sort of thing.)

How will the Great War play out now? How would the war play out between the North and the South play out?
 
While I do consider this a fairly unlikely scenario (if only because the British have commitments to both the Confederate States and the French Republic, which leaves them dangerously isolated should they fail to Honour them - especially if the USA remains hostile to Great Britain in the aftermath of the Great War), I do think that should the British Empire remain neutral then both France and the Confederacy are going to collapse sooner than they did in our own timeline.

Quite bluntly in a clash between France & Russia on one side and Germany on the other the British Empire helps level the odds (in terms of Industrial Development), in a clash between the USA & the Confederacy the British Empire (via Canada) diverts crucial resources from the Mason-Dixon line and buttresses Confederate finances, helping the South remain a going concern in the process.

In all honesty though I find it hard to imagine the Asquith Government NOT being pulled in to this particular meat grinder - quite bluntly his Government had some very capable people, but "Squiffy" was too weak a reed to resist the forces pulling Great Britain into a Continental War, not least because this would have left the British Empire in the invidious position of being painted as "Perfidious Albion" by both sides even as the attempted to drag the Primus inter pares of the Great Powers into the War on their side.
 
In all honesty though I find it hard to imagine the Asquith Government NOT being pulled in to this particular meat grinder - quite bluntly his Government had some very capable people, but "Squiffy" was too weak a reed to resist the forces pulling Great Britain into a Continental War, not least because this would have left the British Empire in the invidious position of being painted as "Perfidious Albion" by both sides even as the attempted to drag the Primus inter pares of the Great Powers into the War on their side.
Whilst there may be a case for Britain staying out of a European War it is unlikely that it would allow the USA a free hand against the CSA and the CSA is duty bound to support its French allies.

In any event on most TLs I would expect Britain to get sucked into the Great Way by the middle of 1915 when the Tories take power. The latter are going to find some causus belli or other.
 
In any event on most TLs I would expect Britain to get sucked into the Great Way by the middle of 1915 when the Tories take power. The latter are going to find some causus belli or other.

And in this case, how will affect the war both in Europe and North America by the middle of 1915?
 
USN v RN. US troops being diverted to the Canadian border instead of stomping the CSA into the ground. The Middle East front being opened up. Maybe a BEF in France. Blockade of Germany.
 
Whilst there may be a case for Britain staying out of a European War it is unlikely that it would allow the USA a free hand against the CSA and the CSA is duty bound to support its French allies.

In any event on most TLs I would expect Britain to get sucked into the Great Way by the middle of 1915 when the Tories take power. The latter are going to find some causus belli or other.
I disagree that the CSA has any duty to France, alliances weren't that firm and Italy is an example of a broken alliance.

If Britain stayed out so would the CSA.
 
I disagree that the CSA has any duty to France, alliances weren't that firm and Italy is an example of a broken alliance.

If Britain stayed out so would the CSA.
The CSA have a duty to France because both it and Britain backed its independence. However, its duty is not so great as it commited far less forces in 1881. Also, the CSA has an alibi in staying out because Britain is not at war. Therefore I agree with the final line above.

The USA is now on the same side as the Central Powers but Germany would prefer that they stay out. This is because if they are in then it is more likely that Britain would get involved and that is no advantage to Germany.

ON the matter of broken alliances, actually Italy had two, an open one with the Central Powers and a secret with France.
 
if the UK does indeed stay neutral in the conflict, then you'd think Germany would have an easier time of it in France. And the US would have more forces to throw against the CSA (I doubt that British neutrality is going to stop TR from attacking), although the US will have to leave a tripwire force on the northern border just in case....
 
Okay there are two possibilities

One is that the UK is neutral because Germany doesn't give them a causus belli like Belgium, the other is that Britain is too distracted with something else to declare war even with the Invasion of Belgium

In the first case the French are obligingly sticking their dicks into a meatgrinder and turning the crank in Alsace-Lorraine, the Germans don't need 7 Armies in the West and can spare one to send to Prussia and maul the Russians worse there and another to dig Austria-Hungary out of their bad situation in Galicia. The result is that Russia is forced to make the major withdrawals they did in 1915 a year earlier, Austria has the reserves to finish off Serbia over the winter and France has battered itself to exhaustion for little gains. If the US is involved, then it has the troops to break the Confederate offensive across the Potomac, plus slightly speed up the other offenses, and the Navy can sail up and down the Confederate coast with impunity. Without A-H getting mauled over Fall and Winter Italy probably decides to wait longer to join the war

In the Second, the East would goes as OTL, but without the BEF the French Fifth Army is mauled if not destroyed and incapable of offensive operations at the Marne, Sixth Army is stretched to cover the positions of the BEF as well and cannot take the offensive. Logistics save Paris for now, but the Germans do not need to retreat, without the BEF the Germans win the Race to the Sea, control the coalfields at Bethune and Belgium and the coast up to the mouth of the Somme is lost. France lacks coal during the winter and armaments production is much lower than OTL. Italy again probably decides to stay neutral for now, and US goes as option one

In both cases the British not joining immediately has very bad effects on the Entente. In case one Russia has taken a very heavy blow, Serbia is off the board and Austria-Hungary is in a much, much better position, in case two French war production has cratered, instituting the Dover Barrage would be impossible, France has taken worse casualties and Paris in under threat. In either case the Confederacy has taken a rather severe beating and Italy is much more reluctant to join. Japan is also neutral and German and American raiders will ravage French holdings and commerce in the Pacific and Atlantic without the RN and IJN
 
If Britain skips the first six months she might not join at all once the casualties start pouring in. I can't remember how the war declarations go but I suspect that if Britain sits on the sidelines the CSA does too.

All in all the Anglosphere might be pretty happy they sat this one out.
 
I would imagine no UK means no Canadian front in the North American theater. This likely means the US does better and probably annexes what they did from the CSA in TL-191 Great War+ Tennessee.
 
I would imagine no UK means no Canadian front in the North American theater. This likely means the US does better and probably annexes what they did from the CSA in TL-191 Great War+ Tennessee.
Well the US is still going to have to maintain some garrisons up there, they can't rely on Canadian neutrality. That said a major limiter in WWI offenses was how many artillery shells were available, and those would not be used, so the Confederates are going to have 33%-50% more arty landing on their heads, plus some extra units can be diverted. The US Navy also has a free hand, so the Confederates are going to really have to worry about their coasts. I'd guess a lot of the freed up troops would go to stopping the Confederates in Maryland, which should be possible, though they could rupture a single front wide open, or make all of them move slightly faster

Not sure the US would take Tennessee, has to hold and assimilate, don't want to bite off more than it can chew
 
A hilarious scenario would be if Germany avoids the invasion of Belgium and so Britain never intervenes in Europe but the USA still invades the CSA and triggers the British alliance there. The Germans disavow the Americans to keep Britain off the continent while France does everything but beg to get British entry. Two concurrent wars would raise all sorts of shenanigans.
 
A hilarious scenario would be if Germany avoids the invasion of Belgium and so Britain never intervenes in Europe but the USA still invades the CSA and triggers the British alliance there. The Germans disavow the Americans to keep Britain off the continent while France does everything but beg to get British entry. Two concurrent wars would raise all sorts of shenanigans.
From the prelude to American Front." A European Power to help you against England and France? Good luck to you, Mr President. Good luck."

What if the USA did not find an ally. Instead she lays into the CSA after Germany invaded Belgium and Britain declared war as per OTL.

In such a scenario Britain has a choice, throw France to the wolves or throw the CSA to a different predator? She does not have an army to aid both and the USA can offer neutrality to her in the Third American War. Germany has less to offer.

Me thinks that the CSA is doomed in such a scenario.
 
If Britain remains neutral, then Canada remains neutral. That means no Canadian Front that the U.S. has to worry about. The CSA is going to get curb stomped even harder in this scenario. While Washington would still probably fall, Army of Northern Virginia would probably be stopped somewhere Maryland as opposed to Pennsylvania. The U.S. First and Second Armies advance more quickly and most likely have Kentucky conquered by mid 1915. Nashville probably falls by mid 1916 at the latest. The U.S. liberates Maryland and Washington by the end of 1915 and invades Northern Virginia by the spring of 1916. The CSA throws in the towel by the fall of 1916. I look for the U.S. to gain all of the territory it did in "American Empire" plus Tennessee.

Of course Canada will still be free, and Britain would maintain control over Hawaii, Bermuda, and the Bahamas. So the U.S. isn't quite as dominant in the Pacific or North Atlantic.
 
Britain would maintain control over Hawaii
Sandwich Islands not Hawaii. Next thing you will be doing is talking about tanks fighting battles.;)

A shorter war and no British to intervenes that the Reds are unlikely to rise up. The CSA will still supply the Mormons.
 
Sandwich Islands not Hawaii. Next thing you will be doing is talking about tanks fighting battles.;)

A shorter war and no British to intervenes that the Reds are unlikely to rise up. The CSA will still supply the Mormons.
The Question becomes will the Mormons rise up? Without a Second Front the US will be rather more obviously winning, Mormons rising if it looks like it could go either way is one thing, but if the US is definitely winning, they are likely to be crushed and not try it

I think Reds Rising up is still likely, as I think it is more dependent on the CSA losing than the length of the war. The US did supply them, which it might not given more success, but if the CSA is being stomped into the dirt bad enough it looks like the Reds might have a chance, they are likely to give it a shot
 
Top