At the end of TL 191 (specifically "In At The Death") the U.S. has conquered the Confederacy with the intention of eventually absorbing it back in the Union. But is this realistic? The CSA had been independent for 80 years, and the population (or a least a sizeable minority) seemed willing to make the occupation too painful for the U.S. to bear. David Bar Elias did a fantastic TL where the Confederacy is eventually re-absorbed (the last state admitted in the 1970's I believe). But again, would this have been possible? Would the U.S. have been willing to continue a military occupation with mounting casualties for the next few decades? Add to this that they were still occupying Canada (where a rebellion had just been put down), plus they had to rebuild the war damage they themselves had just suffered. Any thoughts you have are welcomed.
TL 191: The Southern Occupation
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Yes, David Bar Elias' excellent TL pointed out that the U.S. would be successful in the endeavor after many decades. I was looking for other POV's who may factor in other variables that would produce other outcomes.
Quite bluntly I suspect that the United States will hold onto The South even at the cost of letting Canada go it'd own way; quite frankly they can't afford NOT to, given that there's no other way to Guarantee that the Confederacy will not pull off another Rearmament and elect ANOTHER Featherston (with the inevitable result).
In all honesty the question isn't whether or not the United States will hold onto the South, the question is whether or not the cost of doing so is going to either cause the USA to go broke after footing the bill or break to pieces under the sheer weight of the burden it has chosen to carry; I would like to think that the North can stand the cost of reabsorbing the South, but I can certainly imagine a new round of crises breaking out if the cost of doing so rises too high - possibly resulting in a final fragmentation of the United States, although this may very well be the ULTIMATE Worst Case scenario.
In all honesty the question isn't whether or not the United States will hold onto the South, the question is whether or not the cost of doing so is going to either cause the USA to go broke after footing the bill or break to pieces under the sheer weight of the burden it has chosen to carry; I would like to think that the North can stand the cost of reabsorbing the South, but I can certainly imagine a new round of crises breaking out if the cost of doing so rises too high - possibly resulting in a final fragmentation of the United States, although this may very well be the ULTIMATE Worst Case scenario.
I generally agree with Tiro, the economic cost of maintaining three separate occupations (Canada, Utah/Deseret, and the ex-Confederacy) is going to take an immense toll on the Americans. Not only is there going to be Canadian resistance (while a significant Americanized population evidenced in the books), but there were already Mormon people bombs and ex-Confederate resistance to the US occupation. There just simply aren't enough US troops to go around, and iirc there's hints of a German-American cold war brewing. I think the US would likely go the way of the USSR by the late 1980s or early 1990s, if only because maintaining three separate occupations, massive reeducation and de-Freedomization in the South, handling Canadian and Southern resistance, the rise of Canadian and Southern neo-nationalism and maintaining a cold war status with Germany.
From what I saw, if there is a "Cold War" in TL-191 it wouldn't be nearly as hostile as OTL. Germany and the US are allies and friends; they may not get along perfectly in the future but I don't see it being as bad as OTL US vs. USSR. The US is going to be looking to Japan as its hostile rival IMO.
In regards to Canada, do you think the US might just annex a couple pieces on each coast (BC+Alberta+Nova Scotia) and put a puppet regime in the rest so it can focus more on the former CSA?
In regards to Canada, do you think the US might just annex a couple pieces on each coast (BC+Alberta+Nova Scotia) and put a puppet regime in the rest so it can focus more on the former CSA?
See, that's what I never got. The U.S. could annex the coastal areas and leave the rest of Canada under a puppet government. That would ensure Canada's permanent disarmament. As far as Utah goes, if they expel the Mormons then would the U.S. need to continue to occupy the state?
At least with the former CSA, the US has a plan (annexation and integration). However it seems like they have no idea what to do with Canada.
They have the men, the industry, and the will to absorb both, and will likely do so, perhaps more successfully with Canada than with the former CSA oddly enough. No fascism to wipe out after all.
The Mormons are not numerous enough to be a major concern - they go too far, and the boot will come down hard.
The Mormons are not numerous enough to be a major concern - they go too far, and the boot will come down hard.
I had a rather unorthodox idea about this: going by HT's parallelism, the United States goes the way of the Soviet Union and collapses into its constituent parts (in this case, Canada, Alaska, the pre-FGW USA, CSA, Texas, the Confederate Pacific, Deseret). However, to mix things up a bit, the collapse isn't a peaceful as the OTL USSR's, particularly in the former CSA. It turns out, absorbing a country that's been independent for eight decades and has developed a national identity revolving completely around not being American is actually a really bad idea in the long run. In the former CSA, we see a Yugoslavia-type collapse, with the former CSA seeing warfare and ethnic cleansing akin to the Yugoslav Wars (with a Confederate Milosevic, naturally). Lots of ethnic strife between blacks, Southern whites, "carpetbaggers," and Hispanics.
It's been a while since I've read the books, so it's possible a German-American cold war won't be as bad as the OTL one. But considering that the German-American alliance was practically dead by 1932 when the Germans didn't help the US against Japan, and definitely dead by 1941, I'm more liable to think TL-191's "Cold War" will be just as brutal as OTL.
I don't think they will. The US will probably go for the entire thing, sitting on top of the Canadians until either they assimilate (they won't) or get so swollen with American immigrants that they become a minority (more plausible, but I still see Americans as being just a very vocal minority in Canada).
From what it seemed, neither any of the political parties had a clue what to do with Canada.
I could actually see that, and I'd been developing a map of what I thought TL191 would look like by 2000 (I'll post it here if that's okay with OP and you all). While I don't think the entire CSA will reforge itself, I do see a Southern state as being something inevitable (most likely comprising LA, MS, AL, GA, SC and maybe FL and AK). After nearly a century of developing an identity of not being American, Southerners will be pretty vocal about restoring a Southron state. Canada, after at least a century of occupation, colonization, forced assimilation and military rule, will be pretty brutal to Americans who remain (and have some extremists who call for adding Quebec back into confederation). Admittedly, I also saw New England (including the Maritimes and Newfoundland) spinning off on its own, as well as a NY+NJ union.
I've been thinking about this for a bit, and because I'm more than happy to piggyback on HT's laziness, I'm thinking of ripping off OTL post-Soviet and post-Yugoslav history in a not-so-subtle manner. Here are my ideas:
- A rump USA, naturally led by a Putin expy. Has a few unrecognized "Yankee" statelets, like Delmarva and parts of Kentucky and Missouri, as something like Abkhazia or South Ossetia. Also has New Orleans (possibly renamed) as an obvious Kaliningrad expy, and because it's likely that the Americans would want to keep the mouth of the Mississippi at all costs and ship a lot of Americans down there. I don't see any parts of the pre-FGW United States breaking away (except for Deseret).
- A Remembrance state in West Virginia or somesuch, playing the role of Transnistria.
- An "Appalachian" state, composed primarily of Kentucky and West Virginia. Really poor.
- Texas, minus the state of Houston, which remains in the Union. Possibly lost some territories to former Confederate Mexico, but not Mexico itself.
- A rump CSA, more or less as you described it. A bit of an infamous state given Featherston (who is used often enough in lazy political argumentation that it has its own law) and the post-USA wars in the 1990s.
- Several black republics, mostly in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, which were "autonomous areas" established post-war (American occupation forces wanted to keep blacks safe and away from white Southerners). Terribly poor, and have exchanged territory with the surrounding CSA.
- Former Confederate Mexico. Some talk of reunification with Mexico, but the cultures have diverged a bit too much for that.
- Canada, minus Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador.
- Newfoundland and Labrador.
- Deseret.
- Alaska (if the Americans took them from the Russians at the end of the SGW, or afterward, as they did in After the End).
- Sequoyah, maybe. Depends on American policy with Indians (since they were rather pro-Confederate in TL-191, probably terribly).
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Hmm... You've got a lot of rock-solid ideas: a Remembrance-state in WV, an Appalachian state and a rump USA with a Putin expy. I'm hesitant about so many black republics, if only because there aren't a whole lot of black Confederates left (estimates in the books ran from 6-10 million murdered in the Destruction; and the Filling the Future thread went with almost 11 million blacks in total killed in the Destruction). Haiti and Liberia will probably get the lion's share of survivors, though there will be some moderately-sized black communities north of the Mason-Dixon and a handful of small ones in the South.
I agree with Alaska, Deseret and Sequoyah (who will probably benefit from the oil there, and being quite pro-Confederate). Newfoundland and Labrador will either stay with the US, or join up with Quebec; I just can't see it going solo. I see really three futures for ex-Confederate Mexico: rejoin Mexico (most unlikely, after over 60 years with Confederate rule), go on its own (more likely, could probably run off of tourism), or remain in the Union.
I agree with Alaska, Deseret and Sequoyah (who will probably benefit from the oil there, and being quite pro-Confederate). Newfoundland and Labrador will either stay with the US, or join up with Quebec; I just can't see it going solo. I see really three futures for ex-Confederate Mexico: rejoin Mexico (most unlikely, after over 60 years with Confederate rule), go on its own (more likely, could probably run off of tourism), or remain in the Union.
They cooperated on superbomb research in the Second Great War. Plus, at the end of IATD (final 'official' TL-191 book) Dewey and the German leader pledged to work together to prevent further superbomb expansion (IIRC someone speculated that meant it would be a German/US vs. Japan cold war).
You're right, and I actually had an idea on my drive home: rather than being located in the Deep South, the black republics are located along the Mason-Dixon, and are our Abkhazia/South Ossetia/Novorossiya analogues. These were established by the United States as havens for blacks who didn't want to go to Haiti and Liberia, and while created with the best of intentions, led to ethnic strife later.
You're right. Perhaps they'll stay in the Union.
I imagine them going on their own.
Ahh, okay. It's possible for a Germany/US vs. Japan cold war, but I still think that the US will harbor deep resentment over German inaction during the Pacific War in the 1930s. But a tri-polar cold war seems more likely.
Keeping them as border republics seems a bit cruel (the US would essentially be keeping them as the first casualty in any US-Southron war). I'm okay with the US creating havens for blacks who don't go to Haiti or Liberia, but to me it seems more likely an analogue of "40 acres and a mule" will take off. Maybe some survivors will be resettled in Utah/Deseret, or in Canada. If they're going to take parts of the Southern states, maybe an autonomous black republic between the Rappahannock and the James River (they'd be protected by the US occupation in NC as well, giving strategic depth).
I feel Newfoundland would stay with the Union, if only because it's better than the alternative.
I'm split 50-50 with ex-Confederate Mexico. My map had them stay with the Union, but I could easily see a Republic of Sonora be established in the three ex-Confederate Mexican states.
Thank you! I honestly didn't know what else to do with it. I'll probably rework it and put it in the CSA successor state, though