Transferring nuclear technology to them will bring the USA on the side of the Germans.
If they find out, possibly.
the British are in the German sphere of interest just as the Brazilians are in the US sphere of influence.
The difference is that Britain is relatively much stronger in its position
vis-a-vis Germany than Brazil is compared to the US, even without London (and let's not forget, the first atomic bombs were not sufficiently powerful to destroy the entirety of a city of London's size, even if it did destroy key parts of it).
So for one reason or another the Germans not bomb the bomb factories. That moves things to the next stage, delivery systems. It can be expected that the Luftwaffe will maintain an air defence system, but no guarantee that a bomber will not get through. Rockets make the situation far more dangerous especially sub launched ones. Rather than go there the Germans might decide just to bomb anything that looks like a super bomb factory.
I think you hit the nail on the head with rockets. As IOTL, a submarine-based deterrent is Britain's best bet, once the technology becomes available.
Of course the British would anticipate this and so declare no first use on their part. They do have historical precedent this: the Germans super bombed them first. They can then play coy on whether they have any. That would avoid them getting bombed. The Luftwaffe would still build up an air defence system plus ABMs just in case.
Agreed.
The facilities needed for a nuclear weapons programme are not easily concealed; either an isotopic separation plant or a reactor and plutonium separation plant. None of these are small, all are expensive, and then there's the cooling and uranium feedstock.
Yes, but the British already have these facilities, and they will be heavily defended from air attack. Britain ITTL was not defeated in the same manner as Germany IOTL - there will be no occupation. Is there even anything in the books about the British nuclear programme being dismantled? The
wiki seems to suggest that it remained operational post-war.
Also sanctions can be used as a weapon and given that Britain is democratic I think they'd be less willing to risk the type of sanctions North Korea and Iran had imposed on them. People might want a nuclear arsenal but might not be willing to suffer all the possible risks that come in the process of attempting to acquire one.
How will the Germans sanction a country that hasn't been importing anything from them (or their sphere of influence) for years? The only countries I can see bending to German diplomatic pressure to join the embargo would be France and possibly Italy, and Britain can make up this loss elsewhere.
Agreed. What's the UK going to realistically do in its postwar state if say, Germany decides to initiate a total blockade of the British Isles? They'd break eventually, once the British populace starves.
They can't do this without restarting a conventional war with the UK - even assuming they could manage it, given that the Royal Navy was merely defeated by the USN, not utterly destroyed like the IJN of OTL.
But would Germany go that far? It is one thing doing as I proposed some air raids. It is another going for a major naval operation. We don't know very much about the Kriegsmarine and Royal Navy in the TL-191 universe but I would be surprised if the latter is larger than the former. It could cost the Germans ships and whilst they could afford to replace them more than Britain, they would still have to be replaced.
Also, how is it going to go down in the USA if Germany stops food being transported at a time of peace? It is one thing during wartime stopping food shipments because they could feed an army or navy. It is another to stop starving children being fed in peace time. Do the Germans want get in a war with the USA over merchant ships when they have a British problem, a hostile Russia and a France that needs to be permanently sat on?
I agree that air raids are more likely than blockade, and I also agree that the Royal Navy would be able to frustrate any German attempt to impose one. It's unclear how the two navies compare with regard to size, given that the RN defeated the German fleet in 1943 but was then defeated in turn by the USN. They may well be comparable.
I also agree that the US may take exception to a blockade of starvation.
Well in the last book the US did oppose nuclear profileration so they probably won't care too much especially since the UK would likely be in Germany's sphere of influence anyway.
How would Britain be in Germany's sphere of influence? Even if the UK is 'assigned' to the German sphere through US-German negotiation, there's no way that Britain will simply fall prostrate before Berlin. They were defeated, not occupied, so the British public and political sphere are going to continue to see Germany as the country that obliterated parts of several major cities and presents the clearest threat not only to British interests, but the nation's very sovereignty. In other words, without a 'de-Silver Shirt-ification' occupation, the geopolitical outlook in London is going to remain fundamentally anti-German, even if the government adopts a more pragmatic stance in its relations with the Kaiserreich. If anything, Britain is much more likely to fall into the US sphere of influence, although I personally think they will remain outside both.