TL-191: Plausibile/Possible Complete Confederate Occupation after First Great War.

In How Few Remain, and the aftermath of the Second Mexican War, Theodore Roosevelt states that if elected President he "would never lose a war against the Confederate States". So suppose we dial this up to eleven with all the Revanchism and say that not only did Theodore Roosevelt and the United States defeat the Confederacy, but it also completely occupied it and reabsorbed it similar to how OTl after the Civil War and also how it was done in the final book of the series "In at the Death".

A minor/major stipulation I am looking at here is that Canada is not occupied at all, merely defeated. So instead all the focus is on reuniting the US/CS. Ergo: The complete and utter dissolution of the Confederate States of America is achieve in World War 1.

I would assume that there would be consistent terrorist attacks and continuous unrest, or even mass exodus - and perhaps if there is a Second Great War later on, there may even be some major "Snake Featherson Uprising".

I am more or less interested in seeing if it can be plausibly done in Universe at this stage and what the after effects would be.
 
The US was in a revenge-seeking mood in the First Great War. Britain had stopped them from beating the Confederacy not once, but twice. Occupying Canada was revenge for them helping the Confederacy in the Second Mexican War, so unless Eugene Debs wins in the 1916 election, I don't see the US letting Canada go scot-free after the First Great War. Then again, if Debs was President, then there would be no occupation of the Confederacy, so there's that.
 
It never really made sense to me that the Germans won the European section of the Great War, I get that Britain had to split it's resources but that wasn't going to weaken the North Sea blockade and Germany should have still starved into surrender as it did in OTL. Also while France had some problems in the aftermath of the Nivelle offensive it was nowhere near collapse. So you could have a Peace with a Germany forced by hunger and resource starvation to seek terms and a Confederacy collapsing under the weight of Union Armies but with Canada still holding out. The US has to trade away an potential gains in Canada to protect Germany from French revanchism but no one is willing to stand up for the Confederacy meaning it gets annexed.
 
It never really made sense to me that the Germans won the European section of the Great War, I get that Britain had to split it's resources but that wasn't going to weaken the North Sea blockade and Germany should have still starved into surrender as it did in OTL. Also while France had some problems in the aftermath of the Nivelle offensive it was nowhere near collapse. So you could have a Peace with a Germany forced by hunger and resource starvation to seek terms and a Confederacy collapsing under the weight of Union Armies but with Canada still holding out. The US has to trade away an potential gains in Canada to protect Germany from French revanchism but no one is willing to stand up for the Confederacy meaning it gets annexed.
The Entente in OTL relied on a lot of American supplies and finance. As in TL191, not only do they not have American support, Britain at least has to peel off ships and men to fight the United States in the Atlantic and Canada (not to mention a bunch of American raiders and submarines playing havoc with British trade).
 
It never really made sense to me that the Germans won the European section of the Great War, I get that Britain had to split it's resources but that wasn't going to weaken the North Sea blockade and Germany should have still starved into surrender as it did in OTL. Also while France had some problems in the aftermath of the Nivelle offensive it was nowhere near collapse. So you could have a Peace with a Germany forced by hunger and resource starvation to seek terms and a Confederacy collapsing under the weight of Union Armies but with Canada still holding out. The US has to trade away an potential gains in Canada to protect Germany from French revanchism but no one is willing to stand up for the Confederacy meaning it gets annexed.
The North sea Blockade did not become impenetrable until the US joined in OTL, the US stopped a lot of running at the source, it would be weaker than OTL. Germany did not starve into surrender, they ran out of reserves during the Hundred Days Offensive (with concurrent offensives elsewhere) and surrendered before their lines completely broke

In 191 Italy decides to stay neutral, so A-H had a lot more resources to throw at Russia, and thus Germany somewhat more to throw at France. As such one would think quite logically France had to take more losses in '15 and '16 and thus has less manpower. With the British more limited in how many troops they could send, plus no 620,000 Canadians, the French still have to cover as much or more the OTL Western Front and likely take more casualties again. It's quite possible for the French to run out of manpower and the British be unable to cover, OTL they were planning on disbanding divisions in 1919 if the war continued and so were the British. If the French and British take more casualties than OTL that arrives faster, and the French running out of manpower in 1917 does not look implausible

This does not even count what happens to the Race for the Sea if there are fewer British troops are available, there are not chances for the Germans to really outright win, but a 5 mile bulge at the right place, Bethune falls, French Coal Production, thus war production craters

Canada is screwed long term, they, the CSA and Mexico have 2/3rds the US population while less than half the industry, and fundamentally everything west of Lake Nipigon is indefensible. Fundamentally defending the core of Canada (Peninsular Ontario and Quebec North of the St. Lawrence) requires a 500 mile perimeter, plus denying the US use of the Great Lakes, while the Geography is better for the defense that is still longer than the Western Front with a lower troop ratio
 

bguy

Donor
In 191 Italy decides to stay neutral, so A-H had a lot more resources to throw at Russia, and thus Germany somewhat more to throw at France. As such one would think quite logically France had to take more losses in '15 and '16 and thus has less manpower. With the British more limited in how many troops they could send, plus no 620,000 Canadians, the French still have to cover as much or more the OTL Western Front and likely take more casualties again. It's quite possible for the French to run out of manpower and the British be unable to cover, OTL they were planning on disbanding divisions in 1919 if the war continued and so were the British. If the French and British take more casualties than OTL that arrives faster, and the French running out of manpower in 1917 does not look implausible
IOTL wasn't Petain telling the troops "just hold on, the Americans are coming" a big factor in how he was able to ultimately suppress the 1917 mutinies? In TL-191, the French don't have any prospect of massive reinforcements coming, so once the mutinies get going they would be a lot harder to suppress.
 
The U.S. population was pretty war weary by 1917. Yes the U.S. had broken through in Tennessee, northern Virginia, and had pushed into Texas. However, the U.S. would still have to advances several hundred more miles through fanatical Confederate resistance to completely subdue the CSA. Not to mention that the U.S. was still fighting in Canada and on the seas against the Entente. Roosevelt, in my opinion, gauged the costs of conquering the CSA with crippling it militarily and economically. Given the current U.S. political situation the latter option won.
 
Unlikely. Remembrance at this point was about vengeance against the South and break it, not reconquest.

What you can get is a even greater victory against the CSA, allowing a treaty even more in favor to the North and weakening the Confederacy even more. (Even better is the event of a Confederate Civil War which the Union would just love to mess around in.)
 
The U.S. population was pretty war weary by 1917. Yes the U.S. had broken through in Tennessee, northern Virginia, and had pushed into Texas. However, the U.S. would still have to advances several hundred more miles through fanatical Confederate resistance to completely subdue the CSA. Not to mention that the U.S. was still fighting in Canada and on the seas against the Entente. Roosevelt, in my opinion, gauged the costs of conquering the CSA with crippling it militarily and economically. Given the current U.S. political situation the latter option won.
Uh by the end of the war Confederate resistance was anything but fanatical. Jake Featherston was firing canister over open sights at fleeing Confederate soldiers in Northern Virginia and that wasn't stopping them. And that was Northern Virginia, where the situation probably most favored the Confederacy, being a narrow front where the US can't use its advantage in numbers to biggest effect

I mean they weren't going to occupy the whole place, but the Union could have easily pushed on much more than they did, taken Richmond, grabbed even more of the Confederate border states and possibly all of Tennessee
 
I mean they weren't going to occupy the whole place, but the Union could have easily pushed on much more than they did, taken Richmond, grabbed even more of the Confederate border states and possibly all of Tennessee
What, Virginai, Kentucky and Tennessee?

And maybe even Western Texas?
 
What, Virginai, Kentucky and Tennessee?

And maybe even Western Texas?
Probably not to keep, but the ANV was collapsing, so nothing stopping the US from taking Richmond in a couple weeks, they were 50 miles away when the aermistice happened. Probably would not have taken the whole thing, but say border on the York River instead of the Rappahannock

They got all of Kentucky in canon, a few more weeks and Custer would be in Alabama, and I'd think TR would trade his bit of Alabama, and any bits of Georgia and Mississippi Custer grabbed for the rest of Tennessee, like he traded his chunk of Tennessee for the rest of Kentucky

They got west Texas in canon,just probably a bigger chunk this time

By more of the border states I mean larger chunks of Arkansas, Chihuahua and Sonora
 
Uh by the end of the war Confederate resistance was anything but fanatical. Jake Featherston was firing canister over open sights at fleeing Confederate soldiers in Northern Virginia and that wasn't stopping them. And that was Northern Virginia, where the situation probably most favored the Confederacy, being a narrow front where the US can't use its advantage in numbers to biggest effect

I mean they weren't going to occupy the whole place, but the Union could have easily pushed on much more than they did, taken Richmond, grabbed even more of the Confederate border states and possibly all of Tennessee
Respectfully disagree. Yes the U.S. had advanced into Virginia and Tennessee, but it was exhausted and the U.S. population was getting war weary. The CSA might have sought an armistice because it was running on fumes, but it would quickly find a tenacity once it's told that Roosevelt had the objective of wiping it from existence. Would the U.S. be willing to suffer a potential million more casualties? Not to mention that the fighting in Canada, although reaching an end, was still ongoing.
 
Respectfully disagree. Yes the U.S. had advanced into Virginia and Tennessee, but it was exhausted and the U.S. population was getting war weary. The CSA might have sought an armistice because it was running on fumes, but it would quickly find a tenacity once it's told that Roosevelt had the objective of wiping it from existence. Would the U.S. be willing to suffer a potential million more casualties? Not to mention that the fighting in Canada, although reaching an end, was still ongoing.
So what if it was war weary? By 1917 in OTL, every warring nation’s population was war weary, and yet the war still went on for another year. And even if the US population wanted the war to end, they couldn’t do anything about it until the next elections. So
realistically, the US has until the 1918 midterms to continue the war, and by that point, the US could have been in a position to to negotiate for Tennessee, a bigger chunk of Northern Virginia, and who knows what other parts of the Confederacy
 
I mean, sure. But I've always had the impression that after several decade of independence, the Confederates would have built their own national identity separate from the USA. On the other side of the coin, the Union in this scenario would also be different culturally, and probably wouldn't want absorb their backwards racist cousins and pay the substantial cost of absorbing an ungrateful South. It always bugged me that the CSA got reabsorbed in the end, along with Canada.

I always though shattering the CSA into pieces with pliant leaders, as heads was a more plausible route (spin off Texas, a rump Confederacy, maybe an African American State, Native American etc) and creating client states ala Germany in CP victory scenarios (Kingdom of Ukraine, Baltic states etc). That way you stop them threatening you in the future without the headache of occupation. Same goes for Canada, remove British influence, release Quebec and spin off a Canadian Republic.
 
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Respectfully disagree. Yes the U.S. had advanced into Virginia and Tennessee, but it was exhausted and the U.S. population was getting war weary. The CSA might have sought an armistice because it was running on fumes, but it would quickly find a tenacity once it's told that Roosevelt had the objective of wiping it from existence. Would the U.S. be willing to suffer a potential million more casualties? Not to mention that the fighting in Canada, although reaching an end, was still ongoing.
The US hasn't just advanced, the CS was in full rout. CS troops were willing to get shot at by their own side rather than stop running. Let me repeat that, they would rather be shot by their own side than stop running. Why exactly are they going to turn around and stop running and start fighting? They've lost the war, any further fighting is going to get their asses killed, and by this point the CSA was dependent on Black soldiers who have little motivation to fight hard to protect the CS system. So with a large part of their manpower disappearing, god knows how much military industry being overrun how exactly are they going to cause a million more US casualties?

Canada isn't exactly top priority for the US, and is probably going to fall on its own soon, they had a worse manpower crunch than anyone else, the troops already advancing are sufficient
 
The US hasn't just advanced, the CS was in full rout. CS troops were willing to get shot at by their own side rather than stop running. Let me repeat that, they would rather be shot by their own side than stop running. Why exactly are they going to turn around and stop running and start fighting? They've lost the war, any further fighting is going to get their asses killed, and by this point the CSA was dependent on Black soldiers who have little motivation to fight hard to protect the CS system. So with a large part of their manpower disappearing, god knows how much military industry being overrun how exactly are they going to cause a million more US casualties?

Canada isn't exactly top priority for the US, and is probably going to fall on its own soon, they had a worse manpower crunch than anyone else, the troops already advancing are sufficient
Except now official U.S. policy isn't just beating the CSA, but conquering it. Let's see just how much the CSA is willing to fight with the potential that their country's very existence is up for grabs. Keep in mind that, unlike OTL, the CSA has had more than 50 years of independence and a chance to develop a distinct national identity at this point.
 
Except now official U.S. policy isn't just beating the CSA, but conquering it. Let's see just how much the CSA is willing to fight with the potential that their country's very existence is up for grabs. Keep in mind that, unlike OTL, the CSA has had more than 50 years of independence and a chance to develop a distinct national identity at this point.
Willingness doesn't necessarily matter, ability does. The spirit may be willing but the flesh is weak

The Black soldiers aren't exactly going to fight for the CSA that hard, and they can't throw in the old men and boys because they are needed to fight the remaining Black Guerillas, and the women are working in the factories. So where are they getting the men to fight on? They were plum out

Likewise where are they getting the equipment to replace all the stuff lost in the routs with Northern Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee gone? Because if they don't have that the US can defeat them with firepower rather than manpower
 
Willingness doesn't necessarily matter, ability does. The spirit may be willing but the flesh is weak

The Black soldiers aren't exactly going to fight for the CSA that hard, and they can't throw in the old men and boys because they are needed to fight the remaining Black Guerillas, and the women are working in the factories. So where are they getting the men to fight on? They were plum out

Likewise where are they getting the equipment to replace all the stuff lost in the routs with Northern Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee gone? Because if they don't have that the US can defeat them with firepower rather than manpower
Is the U.S., in 1917, willing to sustain a fight against and occupy an enemy that will fight and resist to preserve its 56 year independence?
 
Is the U.S., in 1917, willing to sustain a fight against and occupy an enemy that will fight and resist to preserve its 56 year independence?
You know I never said occupy the whole place. In any case, basically everyone in OTL WWI was willing to keep fighting into 1918, some into 1919, so the US still would have the stomach for at least a year of full scale fighting. Meanwhile the CSA, well they can't sustain a full year of such fighting. Occupying the CSA may be easier than Canada, after all 40% of the CS population is going to be fairly enthusiastic collaborators. You can make money out of an occupation in this period, and if ex Confederate blacks are doing the garrisoning the North isn't losing people
 
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