TL-191: Pax Romana - Neutrality for the Kingdom of Italy (1914-1944)

In a post of mine, the Italians did sell a bunch of MAB-38 submachine-guns to the French and British, in which they also proved popular with Germans who captured them.
True, I've read it, but kinda imagine (due to the unstable situation in OTL Italy, something similar happening - it's all made up, it's not part of the story, i think):
- an Austro-Hungarian Carro Armato P.26/40 in Ukraine, as replacement/supplement of losses
- an CSA Re.2000 II Series (the catapult variant) onboard CSS "battleship", as a way of self-defense
- (Mussolini) regiment: after the fascist leader, many of them escaped to more friendly nations, and some even joined the Kingdom of France army, forming the (Mussolini) regiment, fighting in Alsace-Lorraine; their "counterpart", the Italian Volunteer Brigade, fought initially against the Greeks, and later, joined the Ottomans in the Caucasus
 
Italian ottoman relations could be very interesting in considering that they're both being neutral during the second great war they could be quasi-allies by the same time The ottomans are funding insurgence against Italian colonial governments so they have to have this weird moment where they have to agree to disagree in the relationship is defined by contradictions
 
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Italian ottoman relations could be very interesting in considering that they're both being neutral during the second great war they could be quasi-allies by the same time The ottomans are funding insurgence against Italian colonial governments so they have to have this weird moment where they have to agree to disagree in the relationship is defined by contradictions
Do we know if the Italo-Turkish War (1911 to 1912) also happen in the TL-191.
 
Do we know if the Italo-Turkish War (1911 to 1912) also happen in the TL-191.
That would still happen. The ripple effect from the south winning the Civil War here would not necessarily effect an event like this. Italy would still be ambitious enough to seek colonies of her own in this timeline.
 
Italian ottoman relations could be very interesting in considering that they're both being neutral during the second great war they could be quasi-allies by the same time The ottomans are funding insurgence against Italian colonial governments so they have to have this weird moment where they have to agree to disagree in the relationship is defined by contradictions
Indeed. One detail though. The Ottoman Empire is said to have gone to war with the rest of the Central Powers in 1941, meaning that it sided with Germany again. They make mentions of Armenians rising up again and carrying out a suicide bombing campaign throughout Turkey during the war. So, the Ottomans here are not neutral.

Italian-Ottoman relations however would not be cordial, I agree.
 
True, I've read it, but kinda imagine (due to the unstable situation in OTL Italy, something similar happening - it's all made up, it's not part of the story, i think):
- an Austro-Hungarian Carro Armato P.26/40 in Ukraine, as replacement/supplement of losses
- an CSA Re.2000 II Series (the catapult variant) onboard CSS "battleship", as a way of self-defense
- (Mussolini) regiment: after the fascist leader, many of them escaped to more friendly nations, and some even joined the Kingdom of France army, forming the (Mussolini) regiment, fighting in Alsace-Lorraine; their "counterpart", the Italian Volunteer Brigade, fought initially against the Greeks, and later, joined the Ottomans in the Caucasus
In a previous discussion here, it is also very possible and very likely that any hardcore fascists in Italy would have gone to Spain to fight in the Spanish Civil War. This is one conflict that the Italians would have a keen interest in. In that discussion, we speculated that Italians of all relevant ideologies would volunteer as fighters here - monarchists, fascists, socialists, communists.

Mussolini is very briefly mentioned in TL-191 as being a minor politician of no importance in Italy after the Great War. Whatever role you see him in as part of your headcanon, I believe it wouldn't be out of character for him to volunteer and fight in Spain as one of the fascist fighters there.

Italian guns and equipment of all sorts can also find themselves in Spain. And Italian socialists would likely fight hard to help establish a republic that would be friendly to their ideology.
 
THE INCOMING STORM (1939-41)

The conclusion of the civil war in Spain was not the end of the tension in the continent but merely a glimpse of things to come; once the violence ended the Entente immediately start to analyze all the lesson learned during the conflict while at the same time using the spanish mineral wealth to feed their rearmament program (this last move, seen by the local as extremely exploative due to the imposed economic term, created a certain amount of tension between Spain and the Anglo-French). Later the last original member of the Entente, the Confederate States of America, under the control of Jake Featherson and his party, decided to renew her ties with her former allies adding the growing tension in North America to the already volative situation in Europe. For many that was the final sign that war was by now unavoidable.
On the other side, Germany start to fully realize her military lack of preparation due to the economic depression and the general lack of desire by the population for military adventures or show of force and greatly invested in her own program to modernize her armed forces; same was doing her most powerfull ally the Austro-Hungarian Empire even if obstacolated by the internal political situation.

Italy, being caught between this two alliance, also partecipated at this race so to quickly improve her armed forces for fear to be involved in the fight when (and not if) will happen and be found unpreparated; so increasingly the national budget was used to obtain new weapons and equipment, to modernize the forts at the French and Austrian border and to create national reserve of strategic materials in case world trade become heavily hampered like in the last war. The socialist-led coalition that during the period governed Italy was elected on a program of keeping the peace and increase the quality of life of the mass, but more and more event in the rest of the world, forced the goverment led by Giacomo Matteotti to invest in the sword instead that in the plow, this brought a strange situation where sector of the great industry supported the socialist why group of the left accused them of betrayal.
All that while the usually conservative italian society experienced a period of ‘debauchery and libertine sin’ as many conservative catholic described that period, expatriate artist from France and England like director Alfred Hitchcock and singer/actor Maurice Chevalier among many others brought many new and modern idea and attitude with them, greatly influencing the arts and the way of thinking of the population. On the dark side, all this partying at his core was a coping mechanism for many, due to the widespread belief that soon a new great war will start engulfing everyone on his bloody embrace.

Diplomatically speacking, while the old continent worried about the continued and progressively more aggressive french demand towards Alsace-Loraine or the British conscription law, in Rome deja-vu was the codeword of the day as like 25 years before, both alliance were trying to bring Italy in the war on their side or at least keep her in a favorable state of neutrality. The British Foreign Secretary Lord Halifax and the French foreign minister Paul Baudouin offered to the italians the full extension of their claim towards Austria-Hungary and added the promise of colonial gain and zone of influence in Turkey if in the case of a new war between the Central Power and the Entente she join the latter launching an attack towards A-H and helping the Royal Navy and Marine Nationale in the Mediterranean . The fact that two authoritarian reactionary regime attempted seriusly an alliance with a socialist goverment, not only point at the seriousness of the future intention of such regime but also their need to quickly fill the military gap in term of resources between them and German alliance and the general strategic importance of Italy. While the italian goverment not fully refused the proposal, it was clear that was also not really interested in a war of aggression, at least for now and the two dignitary returned home with a polite but firm refusal but also an assurance that Italy will remain neutral if not attacked. The talking between the Entente delegation and the italian goverment, while formal and surely not warm, were still far from hostile, the same thing cannot be said of the negotiation with the italian former allies.
The German and Hapsburg ambassador contacted Galeazzo Ciano (1)the italian foreign minister, proposing an official return of Italy in the alliance and in case of war a total support of the italian claim towards France and naturally a share of the Anglo-French colonial empire, plus some economic incentive.
While the envoys received the same answer of the previous delegation, the tone was totally different as the negotioation with the Entente were coldish, formal but in general correct while in the one involving the CP the discussion turning quickly towards the agreement reached more than 20 years ago and how was betrayed even with all the assurances given at the highest level of both Empires. If the tone and words of the italian minister was not among the best to use in any official negotiations between Great powers neither was the one used by the Austrian ambassador (a prominent member of the anti-italian faction of the Hapsburg) shouting that if there was a betrayal it has been done by the italians due to their greed and that a geographical expression needed a lot of caution in dealing in the affair of giants. Apparently the German ambassador cut the talking, excusing himself and forcefully bring with him his Austrian counterpart before more damage was done and in the following days Wien recalled his ambassador due to health reason leaving any further negotiation to the sole german diplomat until a new ambassador was designed but even if the overall tone of the discussion were now more civil, the answer was the same, at the eve of the new Great War, Italy again will stay out of the fight...at least for now

(1) yeah, his father was a very influential member of the nationalist and a supporter of D’Annuzio and Mussolini in OTL as a true believer; the son is much more opportunistic and usually particularly good in catching where the wind is blowing and kissing butt.

And here we see the Italians once again being approached by the Entente and the Central Powers to join their respective alliances, just like in the last war. And both were refused.
 
And here we see the Italians once again being approached by the Entente and the Central Powers to join their respective alliances, just like in the last war. And both were refused.

The italian goverment dislike both side, so the official plan for now is cook a nice and abundant dish of pasta carbonara, take some good chianti and enjoy the show
 
Indeed. One detail though. The Ottoman Empire is said to have gone to war with the rest of the Central Powers in 1941, meaning that it sided with Germany again. They make mentions of Armenians rising up again and carrying out a suicide bombing campaign throughout Turkey during the war. So, the Ottomans here are not neutral.

Italian-Ottoman relations however would not be cordial, I agree.
is Greece neutral and how is the Balkans during the Second great war because I really may find allies there as a way of keeping it self out of the war as well as provide a market for its goods I checked on the wicked only book and country involved in the second great war is Bulgaria so Greece and Albania may be used for allies for Italy
 
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is Greece neutral and how is the Balkans during the Second great war because I really may find allies there as a way of keeping it self out of the war as well as provide a market for its goods I checked on the wicked only book and country involved in the second great war is Bulgaria so Greece and Albania may be used for allies for Italy
Albania IRC is listed as an austrian puppet but yeah Greece is not named in both war; for a quick headcanon, the war ended before the King and Veninzelos resolved (very violenty) their difference of opinion regarding what Greece need to do, with the CP victory and the monarch being pro-germany, well Veninzelos is dismissed and Greece don't gain anything even if the CP faction plead to give them something so to sooth at least a little the nationalist but it's all in vain.
Come the 30's and while officially pro German, irredentism and nationalism dominate the political life and the king is seen more as a foreign puppet than a true monarch of Greece
 
Albania IRC is listed as an austrian puppet but yeah Greece is not named in both war; for a quick headcanon, the war ended before the King and Veninzelos resolved (very violenty) their difference of opinion regarding what Greece need to do, with the CP victory and the monarch being pro-germany, well Veninzelos is dismissed and Greece don't gain anything even if the CP faction plead to give them something so to sooth at least a little the nationalist but it's all in vain.
Come the 30's and while officially pro German, irredentism and nationalism dominate the political life and the king is seen more as a foreign puppet than a true monarch of Greece
Yeah. I think it’s safe to say the Balkans are an Austrian and Bulgarian playground in terms of exerting influence and power. Maybe the Ottomans have some ambitions there too, but they would be more focused on internal matters and keeping their empire from collapsing to care too much about the Balkans (Greece being the potential thorn in their proverbial side of course).

Turtledove actually makes little to no reference to Greece in his books. But, as was said before, Greece would have its own drama unfold in the wake of a Central Powers victory in the Great War.

I’d have to look more into it myself. I suspect the Greeks would be very sore about the Entente (and the Pro-Entente politicians of the time) strong-arming them into a war they would eventually loose. I could be wrong about that. All I’m aware is that Greece was officially neutral in the Great War, but then the Entente put pressure on an already divided government to side with them, so they could open up another front against the Central Powers in the Balkans.

As was said before though, monarch and prime minister were divided on who to side with, which is true. I want to say that Greece may see either a civil war or the rise of an ultranationalist, revanchist government, but I’m really unsure.
 
As was said before though, monarch and prime minister were divided on who to side with, which is true. I want to say that Greece may see either a civil war or the rise of an ultranationalist, revanchist government, but I’m really unsure.
Yeah, the Entente basically strongarmed Greece (well Veninzelos need very little convincing) to let them use their territory for their operation but Athens remained officially neutral and tried at the same time to please the CP.
So after the war, Greece will have suffered, it will be internally divided and gain nothing except being surrounded by CP and see any irredentism claim as a dream...well maybe we can have both a brief civil war after a period of political instability and a ultranationalist goverment take control
 
Yeah, the Entente basically strongarmed Greece (well Veninzelos need very little convincing) to let them use their territory for their operation but Athens remained officially neutral and tried at the same time to please the CP.
So after the war, Greece will have suffered, it will be internally divided and gain nothing except being surrounded by CP and see any irredentism claim as a dream...well maybe we can have both a brief civil war after a period of political instability and a ultranationalist goverment take control
I don’t foresee this ending well for the Greeks then in either case.

If there is to be a civil war, it could be similar situation to the Spanish Civil War - possibly pro-German monarchists fighting against pro-Entente ultranationalists, with socialists added in for a bit of chaos.

Actually, Greece falling to an ultranationalist irredentist government that wants to reclaim Greek land would mean that the Greeks would see Italy as a potential foe. As I recall, the Dodecanese would be under Italian control, provided that they are still seized by the Italians from the Ottomans during the Libyan War of 1911-1912.

Unless the Italians are willing to part with them to preserve peace, this could be a potential flash point.
 
I don’t foresee this ending well for the Greeks then in either case.

If there is to be a civil war, it could be similar situation to the Spanish Civil War - possibly pro-German monarchists fighting against pro-Entente ultranationalists, with socialists added in for a bit of chaos.
Very probable, maybe as a sideshow of the second great war as it happen more or less at the same time

Actually, Greece falling to an ultranationalist irredentist government that wants to reclaim Greek land would mean that the Greeks would see Italy as a potential foe. As I recall, the Dodecanese would be under Italian control, provided that they are still seized by the Italians from the Ottomans during the Libyan War of 1911-1912.

Unless the Italians are willing to part with them to preserve peace, this could be a potential flash point.

Well, Dodecanese can be gifted to Greece in exchange to a formal alliance...except Rhodes and maybe north epirus can be added (or at least a stronger protection for the greek minorities)
 
Very probable, maybe as a sideshow of the second great war as it happen more or less at the same time



Well, Dodecanese can be gifted to Greece in exchange to a formal alliance...except Rhodes and maybe north epirus can be added (or at least a stronger protection for the greek minorities)

If Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire see the Greeks as an Entente aligned springboard for invading their countries then I’d say this would definitely be a front for the Second Great War. Whether it would be a successful front is another matter entirely. I can potentially see the Greeks being fired up enough to try and take their lands back with heavy Entente support.

Not entirely sold on the idea of an alliance between Greece and Italy though. Wouldn’t that be seen as too risky? I suppose from my perspective I see the Greeks in this regard being far too angry to be neutral. And if the Italians kept Rhodes then I imagine it would be a dealbreaker for the Greeks. Either they get all the islands, or something bad will happen.
 
Not entirely sold on the idea of an alliance between Greece and Italy though. Wouldn’t that be seen as too risky? I suppose from my perspective I see the Greeks in this regard being far too angry to be neutral. And if the Italians kept Rhodes then I imagine it would be a dealbreaker for the Greeks. Either they get all the islands, or something bad will happen.
It's more something born of absolute necessity, the alternative is remain isolated or become a CP puppet in any case Greece will be surrounded by enemies and will see her irrdente claim unfulfilled (or worse).
Basically while Italy is not a real friend and only an ally due to the situation (if such alliance happen), at least it's not a mortal enemy like Bulgaria and the Ottoman
 
Bulgaria wouldn't necessarily be a hegemon since Romanian Greece is still relatively intact compared to OTL or a 1917 divergent it may have May have only only conquered modern day North Macedonia from Serbia since Romania is an involved in the great war in this timeline and remains neutral in a second
 
Once more unto the breach ( 1941-43 part 1)



For the entire duration of 1940 in all the developed nations of the world, preparation for a new general conflict abounded while at the same time feebler and feebleer attempt to diplomatically keep the peace continued.

Frantic attempt to quickly upgrade the military equipment and enlarge the armed forces, together with massive civil defense exercises and the build up of warstock material were the norm of the day. In this race, the apparent ruler of Europe, the German Empire seemed a distant second as due to their unwillingness to fully burn their economy in such effort they started their rearming attempt later than the Entente and with less drive. The Germans main allies were not in a much better position, as Austria-Hungary united the lack of desire for such expediture (a tradition for the extremely spending avoiding Hapsburg burocracy) with internal instability, as the increasily authoritatian rule of Wien and the Magyarization effort of Budapest caused many minorities to protest even violenty against the government. The Ottoman Empire and the Tsardom of Bulgaria instead weren’t interested in any conflict as their interest were not menaced (or at least not enough to justify a very costly war) and the leaderships of this nations honestly thought that remaining neutral was an option if the Entente doesn’t attack them directly.



By the middle of 1941, even with the continous declarations of peacefull intention by everyone, only the king of the fools believed that war was not imminent.

The straw that broke the camel’s back was the internal political confusion in Germany due to the death of Emperor Wilhelm II and the ascension to the throne of his son; both Paris and London looked at the situation as the perfect occasion to give to Berlin an ultimatum, so the 2 June 1941 the French ambassador in Berlin gave to the German Prime Minister Kurt Von Schleicher a message from King Charles XI, this stated that unless the territory of Alsace-Lorraine were not given back to his rightfull owner, the French nation will have no other choice that declare war to take back what was hers, this declaration was also supported by the Russian and British ambassadors. As expected, the next day, in an unanimous vote the Reichstag refused such request and so the plague of war again was free to roam the european continent and even beyond.



The 4th of June, President of the council of ministers Giacomo Matteotti in the name of the italian government and people declared his ‘non belligerance’ in the current conflict and that the sacred inviolability of the national border will have been defended with all the necessary mean.

Like in the first Great War, neutrality don’t shielded the italian population by the consequences of the war as the trade become difficult not only for the direct peril of the fight between the two side but also due to a combination of hoarding of resources by both alliance soto increase their reserve and deny them to the enemy but also a slowing of the transports thanks to the belligerant taking the right to inspect and control even the neutral ships in case they transport material deemed to be destinated to their enemy. This last fact brought the italian government to send many protest and complains to all capitals...but if someone want to be fair, it was more a Quadruplice Alliance policy to be very strict with italian ships than an Entente one, as the latter enjoied much better relations with Rome and still hoped to bring her on her side (and in any case she was a great sources of workers and supply).

To contrastate this, the just formed government of national unity, decided to start immediately a politic of rationing many goods (food and coal in particular), giving to any italian the dreaded ‘carta annonaria’ a document that authorize the buying of food and other product in specific quantities so to better control the situation, such piece of paper will become the symbol of the period for many italians.

The great conundrum of Italy was again that they needed raw material to feed the industry for export (on both sides) but also support and feed his population; so while the best material was given to the factories that supplies the belligerant there were the necessity to support the rest of the nation. Luckyly one of the biggest export of Italy during this period was his own population, as both France and Germany requested a lot of guest workers to man their factories and farms while their own men were occupied in the fight. This at least relieved a lot of pressure from Italy (lot less mounth to feed and the money sent back home was very important) but hardly ended his problems and sufference.

To resolve or at least make the situation more bearable for the population a lot of initiative were started, like the creation of the ‘orti di guerra’ (basically the use of every piece of land available to grow food, from the land of the pubblic park to the terrance of private house to even bathtub) that were cultivated by private citizen or pubblic association, the treshing were done in the square of the cities in very patriottic manifestation and usually with the blessing of the harvest by the local priest or bishop. But the measure that together with the ‘carta annonaria’ really is intrinsecally associated to the period is the so-called Autarchy as all the combined effort of the government in coordination with the private sector to make Italy as independent as possible by imported material that was difficult to obtain in this trying times. That was attempted by both trying to increase the national production and support the use of alternative like rice, fish and rabbit even where it was not common but also to replace many goods with the so-called ‘surrogati’ like using barley or cicory to create a beverage to use instead of coffe, karkadè instead of tea and the use of synthetic replacement for cotton and gasoline. In general the biggest advantage that the autarchic measure created was a great expansion of the chemical sector, a general modernization of many industries and infrastructure (especially transport), but the fruit of all this were enjoyed by the italian population principally in the postwar period.



What greatly helped in the immediate was the closer link between Italy and the other neutral nation of Europe (Switzerland, Sweden, Greece and ironically Spain) by coordinating their effort in transporting goods in collective convoy and unified acquisition and increasing the trade between each other. This links become very important after the end of the war, when Italy found itself, almost by chance, at the center of a little block of neutral nations that were not very keen at enter or return in the German sphere of interest.
 
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