TL-191: McSweeney as Dictator

[Syuzeren]

Making some posts in the infamous Filling the Gaps thread, I have realised how enticing the Presbyterian Butcher, the Holy Terror, and the most socially awkward man who ever went to Utah (a deafening claim and well earned title) rising to power after an Entente victory, or at least lack of an overwhelming Entente loss, truly is. It is also every TL-191 nerd's favourite TL-191 althis: how could the story become more interesting after the Great War series?

My posts here and here are slightly amateurish and undocumented with research. Since I posted I've been refreshing by digging up my copies and reading the bits I remember highlighting as interesting. I think a lot of credence can be given not only to the failure of the Central Powers to win the Great War, but also to the ability of McSweeney to rise up. I recommend as well reading this thread by Trio which is well known. I have my issues with it, however.

Mainly, I do not see the United States as being divided enough to fall into a civil war which is comparable to either Spain or Russia in the similar sort-of early 20th century time frame. The politics simply aren't divided enough.

But, there is a lot of good to be taken away from Trio's thread! Mainly, the idea that while the Central Powers don't technically lose the war, it's very difficult to say they truly won anything. I think it's possible that the United States could be the last member of the Central Powers truly operational and that they could be forced to the negotiating table without losing much territory because of it. In fact, they may use their bargaining chips in such large swaths of land held in Canada and Dixie to get away with no territorial concessions.

Let's try and formulate a new and improved timeline where McSweeney rises to power and starts the Second Great War.

Reposting some:

Divergence within a divergence...

First, how could the Entente have won the first war? It seems clear that in the beginning of the war, the lack of clear naval superiority was skewed in the Entente's side, with the more numerous and more supplied vessels being able to force the American and German fleets to relatively contained areas in the North Atlantic. All the while the Entente was performing with generally unmolested freedom of movement in the rest of the seas, especially with Japan almost certainly tying down any German ships in the Pacific. 1914 can be defined as a good point for a more successful use of modern naval logistics and strategy on the Entente's side for beginning the divergence we need. Only some small differences in battle, and all of the sudden the majority of the German fleet is wiped out, and the American fleet is contained. This leaves the Pacific. But, with the Central Powers all but barred from intercontinental communications, this effectively cuts off the United States from its allies in Europe.

The Pacific becomes a problem when one realises how little the Japanese were willing to leave their comfort zones to support the Entente effort. American ships were not harassed in their formations off the Pacific coast, despite the existence of Victoria Island as an excellent staging point for Entente efforts against the Americans. Lobbying by the British government may have promised the Japanese a leg up on negotiations against the Russian Empire post-war, a conflict which may have gone stale after the war began. With suitable enticement to work with the Entete, Tokyo, now confident in Britain's future support against Russia, would move up past the Sandwich Isles to Victoria, where a sizable fleet could force the Americans into their ports.

Issues regarding supplies could be solved for the South. Richmond would be free to ship in manufactured goods from friendly Europe in exchange for crops, which would have been the most important export the CSA was capable of providing. With food feeding Entente troops on the Western Front, most of the German Army would begin to starve. 1915 would turn into a race to break the stalemate, which favoured the Entente simply by nature of logistics. While the CSA's supplies were inadequate when compared to the USA, the nature of the North's war on two fronts, its inability to trade, and its isolated diplomatic place would mean that any ingenuity cooked up could begin to break it. Not to mention, strategically speaking, the lines of supply were much harsher for the USA. Long trails would have to be maintained to keep supply in as distant places as the underdeveloped New Mexico all the way to the moon-scaped Ontario Front. While it is likely that the American assault against Canada would be relatively successful, the ability to maintain such a large front appears more and more unlikely. Confederate assaults would not need to pass the Susquehanna to successfully wear down the Americans.

The Mormon Uprising in 1915 would have been crucial in isolating the already undermanned Pacific coast of the USA from centres of supply in the east. During this time, it is unlikely that needed repairs and upkeep of ships would have been possible. With full knowledge of the uprising, the Entente would have taken full advantage and destroyed what remainder of the Pacific fleets existed. In a mirror of the Second Mexican War, British troops could land and occupy San Francisco, destroying the morale of the American public in the West, all the while reinvigorating attempts by troops in British Columbia, getting resupply from Victoria, to begin a counteroffensive south. The capture of Seattle further makes the West coast demand for a ceasefire. By the end of 1915, it would have been almost impossible for the US to continue conduct of the war under these conditions unless a major victory came soon. As promises of Germans reaching Paris and Americans reaching Toronto starting to fade in honesty, the only thing stopping the USA was the halt of Confederate forces during the Autumn of 1915 as the Red Rebellions paralysed the CSA.

Even with a significant portion of the population rising, estimates going between a sixth and a fifth of the population acting at least civilly obstinate during this time, the CSA was able to hold the line against only meager counterattacks and unplanned pushes from a disorganised and panicking American general staff.

It should be noted that in the latter months of 1915, the main cause for the American General Staff's inability to conduct war or take advantage of the Red Rebellion in the South in a similar manner which the Entente took advantage of the Mormon Uprising could be chalked up to the successful potshot assassination Theodore Roosevelt, implying this to be Grady Calkin's is a wonderful idea.

The rise of McKenna as president, from a rather worthless VP to the most powerful man in the USA meant the reversal of all successes on land made capable by the American war effort.

By Spring of 1916, most of the large Red Republics were simply a memory, with effective leadership destroyed or forced into hiding into strategically unimportant areas. Most of the CSA returned to business as usual. In fact, many blacks in the CSA were then given the opportunity to join up to win citizenship, which many took. The newfound swelling of the ranks, especially in artillery and aboard river monitors, made it possible for the CSA, by the Autumn of 1916, to reach the Illinois river, maintain a semblance of control over the Mississippi...

...and stabilise their fragile lines. Make no mistake, the CSA fielded an inferior army with inferior equipment, training, and leadership. However, the nature of the shakeup in the Powell House meant that the chaos of the early months of 1916 allowed major Confederate advances in reclaiming territory and reinforcing their weakened lines. It cannot be understated how valuable Negro Corps were in creating a status quo in the Roanoke Front, the Mississippi River Front, and in the undermanned Far West Front.

Also, McKenna refused to hold elections in 1916 in fear of a Socialist administration, due to the Democrat conduct of the war. This created some riffles in American society, but not many. It simply set a precedent.

The pressure of this meant that it was not until the end of the 1916 Summer before the American army could decidedly prepare for operations again. By this time, the German military was in dire straits. It seemed like collapse was imminent, it had to.

Fighting continued until by Spring 1917 the German military launched a failed offensive, suffered immediate reversal, and collapsed to pressure from the Entente. With the fall of Germany, the European members of the Central Powers were all but eliminated from the equation, and the war was only really left to be fought by the USA. The Powell House was receptive to requests by a shaky Confederate establishment for the signing of a ceasefire and eventual armistice. McKenna agreed and the war came to an end.

For me, this all seems straightforward and fairly airtight in creating the desired environment necessary for the event I'd like to call the Blue Coup, in which the response to the 1920 elections where Socialists swept through the Powell House the military establishment rose up and worked with the Democrats and the Soldier's Circle to paralyse the United States and reestablish Democrat control, while also installing a martial law for a period of eight months while the junta in power fought off Entente forces who entered the country mostly unopposed, units of the military unwilling to cooperate, and members of the Democratic Party who slowly began to wane in their support of the Blue Coup as it completely failed to fulfill its promises and showed itself to be indecisive, lacking clear leadership, and incapable of controlling the country despite its dictatorial powers.

Reposting:

Formation of the dictatorship...

With most international finance existing in London, it cannot be stated how important British loans to the CSA were necessary to keep the country afloat after the war. While not suffering much damage to its infrastructure fighting the USA, the domestic troubles from the Red Rebellions were enough to damage the Confederate economy and plunge it into a desperate state. Much of the British loans were paid off either in raw gold or extensions of contracts for shipping crops and cotton to the British, which it could in turn sell to Europe for massive profits. The CSA lost two things after the war: a large amount of international credit, now being in debt to London, and the ability to rely on its foremost trading partner (USA) to continue its underdeveloped agrarian economy.

The USA was strapped for cash. Before the Treaty of Washington could even be signed, McKenna ordered demobilisation. The best bargaining chip the USA possessed in its negotiations was the threat of continuing the war. Despite its "official" status of success, the CSA was truly on the brink of collapse.

The Treaty of Washington gave the CSA the state of Maryland, and Delaware, while still part of the USA, was put under occupation. In exchange for less harsh economic punishment, McKenna agreed to ceded New Mexico as well. Deseret was freed. This left the West coast isolated from the core of America. This would not be forgotten.

Pittsburgh was in crisis. McKenna took credit for the short-lived economic recovery in 1919-1922, built by Confederate investment and attempted rejuvenation of the Northern economy so as to build up a reliable economy which could buy Southern exports, the financial crash of February 1923 could not have come at a worse time... The strength of the London market was never questioned, but when speculation and investment into the defeated economies did not return the sums expected, everything came crashing down. The elections of 1924 gave rise to the first Socialist administration. The military, cut in funding and blamed for its failure, managed to work with the Soldiers Circle group and take control of New York City, Chicago, Boston, and most importantly: Philadelphia.

General Custer was the head of the junta, known as the Blue Coup, and declared the illegality of the Socialist party, the restoration of the constitution, and the determination of the USA to seek revenge against its neighbours. Confederate troops moved in and surrounded Philadelphia with the assistance of American Loyalists who disregarded the legitimacy of the Blue Coup. During the event, California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington seceded to form the United States of Pacifica. The CSA, Deseret, and Japan immediately recognised them. Other nations followed suit. After only eight months, the Blue Coup was disarmed with only a few fights. Most of the military did not support the newfound dictators of the USA. Many of the SC troops which were rallied with the junta were defeated or talked down. Confederate troops withdrew and the USA's Socialist leadership was returned to power. Custer was put on trial, found guilty, and given life in prison, while other lower level members of the coup were executed or fled before capture to Germany, Mexico, or Brazil. During this time, Gordon McSweeney had killed three Confederates, a pack of Reds, and contributed to the Defense of Pittsburgh, only to have been ordered to stand down by his superiors before fleeing to Cleveland. This helped form the McSweeney that would later lead a successful democratic takeover of the USA.

Abner Dowling had during this period been a rather influential character. Initially supporting the Blue Coup, and rising to its upper echelon through his connection to Custer and decidedly anti-Socialist opinions, it can be said that the failure of the seizure and restoration of the Socialist administration can be pinned on him. He met with both Loyalists and Entente forces in Detroit, a Loyalist stronghold, to try and renegotiate the terms of the Treaty of Washington. Given his escort to these areas, it can be surmised that at least to some unspoken level, the goals of the Blue Coup were not a total restructuring of society from the top down in the USA, but rather a violent attempt to give the USA a better chance at recovering after economic woes seized the country. But, unfruitful, Dowling finally turned in his fellow Blues and worked with Loyalists in securing the captured areas and talking down members of the SC. For this, he was allowed to lead the new Northern war department, after most of the talent had fled or been tried.

McScweeney, aware of these facts, had a burning hatred evolve in him. One which cast aside huge numbers of his country, including the secessionists in the newfound Pacifica which were trying to stitch themselves back into the United States. California demanded more representation and to move the capital to somewhere more central, such as Chicago or Denver, so that Western needs would be better sought to. In exchange for the rejoining of Pacifica, the capital was de facto and de jure moved to Chicago, where many of the Socialist administration found themselves at home, even though the Defense of Chicago had been the bloodiest and hardest to disentangle, due to the nature of the SC and Blues defending it. The crisis, McScweeney saw, only proved to levee harsher penalties on the USA, and lead to more domestic crisis. Radical leftist groups, some calling themselves Soviets, had begun to seek out and attack anyone who could be called a Blue. McScweeney, hoping to avoid being caught, changed his name to Isaac Langley and moved to Chicago in order to work with other ex-members of the SC and supporters of the Blues.

So timeline:

• The naval situation gets progressively worse for the Central Powers until it is clear that the Entente have near total naval superiority and control. This leads to the weakening of trade, communication, and technological development between USA and Germany, meanwhile new innovations can spread quickly between all the Entente.
• The Mormon Uprising is more perilous for the USA, the naval situation means that it leaves large swaths of troops fighting in the Great Plains Front in Canada and almost everywhere in the West lacking in supply.
• Due to the assassination of Roosevelt and the ascension of McKenna, the USA is unable to take advantage of the Red Rebellions, and it allows the CSA to actually strengthen itself despite a fairly poorly fought war up to this point.
• The failure of the German 1917 Spring Offensive leads to victory in Europe, while the USA hangs on until an armistice can be signed. While the Treaty of Versailles begins to take shape, no such treaty takes place in the USA. American troops pull back to 1914 borders in agreement between the Powell House and Richmond.
• The immediate interwar years leads to political instability in the USA that is fairly unimaginable. The troops were blamed for losing the war, and the Democrats were blamed for bringing the USA into it at all. 1918 spelled big wins for the Socialists, who controlled Congress, and then everyone predicted that 1920 would be won by the Socialists. McKenna would not let the Reds have the presidency. He cancelled elections again, extending his earlier war-time cancellation.
• The economic crash of February 1923 meant that it was impossible for the Democrats to stay in power. The Socialists won. Unwilling to accept this, McKenna worked with the top of the military to overthrow the Socialist administration and replace it with a military dictatorship known as the Blue Coup.
• This lasted for eight months between February to November 1924. Entente troops entered the USA and worked with what were known as "Loyalists" (those who supported the election of the Socialists or simply opposed the coup) and the "Blues" who supported the Union Army takeover. Most were in the former camp. The junta stepped down and many were tried. The top escaped execution, meanwhile the rank and file were imprisoned and many NCOs executed.

McSweeney is obviously the most important character in this timeline. What would his next move be? I'd imagined hijacking the Republican party and reviving it as opposition now that the Democrats had been estranged as having supported dictatorship. However, it has been brought up before that McSweeney is anything but charismatic or pragmatic.

 

[Polish Eagle]

McSweeney as the third Republican President? Interesting idea, but the failure of the last two and Lincoln’s leading half of it into the Socialists makes it unlikely. I think McSweeney founding his own party is more plausible. OTOH, the more western focus of the US could bring them back into the limelight, and thirty years is a lot of time for the party to have reinvented itself yet again.

 

[Allochronian]

I'll have to re-read the Great War trilogy so that I can try to bring plausibility to this D.W.D (Divergence Within a Divergence).

Currently, I do have some good questions to ask about this fun side project:

1) Notwithstanding Roosevelt being alive until 1924 in Turtledove's version, I always imagined Walter McKenna becoming president in 1919 (since Roosevelt actually died in that year in OTL) in either timeline of the Southern Victory series. While I would like to imagine that McKenna was a fill-gap president who didn't have the motivation nor popularity to win his own presidential term, I'd like to think that an assassination of Roosevelt during the war would have allowed him to seek peace with the Confederates and/or Canadians. Would the First Great War have ended sooner or later than 1917? What about in Europe, since France would still have a high chance to mutiny? At the very least, Britain would be all alone against the German Empire, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and the Ottoman Empire... unless we decide to have Italy join the Entente Powers.

2) I got the impression that it was Custer's unique use of barrels that broke the stalemate on the American front. Wouldn't this have been a better alternate P.O.D? Have Custer obey War Department orders and have the war drag on even more?

3) What would Featherston do in this alternate-alternate timeline? He'd still be denied a promotion, even if the Confederates had been on the winning side.

4) Europe pretty much still experiences a history similar to ours, more or less. How would Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and Imperial Japan behave in this world with a more fragmented North America?

5) I'd like to imagine that the Radical Liberal party gains more influence in the Confederacy (Reggie Bartlett for President!!!) How does the country deal with the "Negro Question"?

6) McSweeney was always a Stalin-like figure to me. In an Entente victory, I imagined him to basically usurp the Socialist party, if not make up his own, and act almost like Stalin, but with a less secularist/anti-religious sentiment. Does McSweeney have any specific thoughts on Hitler, Soviet Stalin, Hirohito, Mussolini, etc.? Or would he just mind his own business?

 

[Syuzeren]

McSweeney as the third Republican President? Interesting idea, but the failure of the last two and Lincoln’s leading half of it into the Socialists makes it unlikely. I think McSweeney founding his own party is more plausible. OTOH, the more western focus of the US could bring them back into the limelight, and thirty years is a lot of time for the party to have reinvented itself yet again.

Considering the nature of politics after the Blue Coup and the subsequent domination by the Socialists, the revival of the Republicans as something new doesn’t seem that far off. Especially when it is considered that the Republicans already experienced such a change and revival in the form of the Socialists. McSweeney changing the Republicans to fit the needs of his agenda is possible and plausible, especially if the party becomes the nee safehaven for Blues.

@Allochronian
To answer your questions...
1. Many in the althis community take the idea of a French mutiny for granted. With a well supplied army acting on the defense for the duration of the war, the strategic impotus of the French would not mirror that of the French IOTL. Here, the Entente on the Continent would be more focused on the idea of wearing Germany down. There is no French mutiny, because the war never goes so poorly for the Entente to warrant it.

2. With Roosevelt dead, the administration of McKenna is almost completely incapable of directing the War Department in a way which could make good use of the barrels. The industrial might of America does not focus on their production, in part because of McKenna’s incompetence. Plus, without the German assistance in engineering, when barrels appeared they appeared first with the CSA’s troops. All attempts by the War Department were to copy Reb designs, and the needless complication and insistence on their use meant that custer never was given the chance to amass and use them as he did in TL-191.

3. With the success of the war he would not be able to rise to the power he did. He’d be a grumbling veteran in a bar. Nothing less, nothing more.

4. We can assume that the Soviet Union does not exist. The powers that win the Great War are more interventionist. The acceptance of a communist state is impossible. Germany I have not thought of, but a revanchist political movement seems inevitable. It makes plenty of sense for this Third Reich to be led by Hitler. He would probably admire McSweeney. Imperial Japan was promised British support in a war or negotiation against Russia. With the Soviets there, Britain would fulfill its deal by working with the Japanese to dismantle the influence of Moscow/Petrograd in Asia.

5. It’s more likely that the aristocratic Whig establishment retains power. The Negro Corps becomes the only true path for Negro citizens, and now that the war is over, this path is closed. Besides that, it is more likely local officials who deal with their own anti-black agendas than it is some national consensus decided upon by the party.

6. McSweeney despises Socialists. I much prefer the idea of him hijacking the Republican Party. I don’t see him as leading the GOP’s revival and restructuring, but I see him as near enough to the centre that he could organise a coup of the party and therefor the country. I also doubt McSweeney would like the Japanese, I can see him working with Hitler, Mussolini isn’t known ITTL, and Stalin is certainly dead by the time McSweeney rises to power, most likely in the early 1930’s or late 1920’s.

 

[President Earl Warren]

I had a idea involving this in A Kaiserreich/Tl191 mash up, it goes like this:
Roosevelt is killer but instead of being a complete idiot, McKenna is actually rather competent about running a war effort. The main divergence comes in when instead of accepting the CSA’s surrender, he orders a complete reconquest of the CSA.It takes another two years of fighting but by the end of it the CS army is completely annihilated and the US has control over Richmond, New Orleans, and Charleston. They then proceed to annex the south but that’s when the trouble starts. Over the course of the 1920s the US economy buckled under the weight of running 3 occupation zones and pro confederate insurgency is rife. The Socialists win in 1924 but are divided between the Moderate Blackford faction who model themselves off of the respectable German Social Democrats and the Radical Hamburger faction who admire the Syndicalists in Britain and France. The Republicans grow to be dominated by angry Farmers (who’ve been especially hard hit by the after war slump) and McSweeney is elected to the Senate in a republican wave in 1926. He promises to fight for the Farmer aganst “Jewish and Papist manipulations of the market” and “the perfidious treason of the Rebs and Canucks”. The Democrats manage to consolidate their control over the North East and New England building a coalition of Catholic,patriotic working class men and the Middle class who promise to retain all the Conquests. The Socialists are kicked out of office in 1928 by this coalition with Herbert Hoover at the head but his efforts to deal with both the economic crisis and the insurgencies wallow as well. In 1932 the Republicans make shocking success when they manage to almost win the election under the McSweeney/Lemke ticket dominating the Midwest. This splits the electoral college and gives the Hoover another term. Everything goes to hell in 1936 when the election goes crazy with the Syndies totally taking over the Socialists and the Canadians rising up in one big uprising ( their divided between entente Royalists and syndicalist reds). The civil war sparks after yet another divided electoral college, with Syndies taking over the Midwest, McSweeney and his group running the west and the Democratic establishment running the North East under James Farley. The military occupational governors set themselves up as war lords and try to focus on suppressing the separatists and the pacific states going their own way.