Concerning Confederate Cuba
Nothing says 'Alternate History' like a Cuban Annexation; with this in mind and a little bit of research under my belt (coupled with the vague recollection that some fellow contributor in past days suggested that thought should be given to the precise position of Cuba in the course of Timeline-191) I have been giving some thought to how this particular island became joined to the mainland (politically-speaking).
Now what follows is based as much in narrative as in sober history, but I think that it is at least good food for thought fit to inspire further discussion in the course of 'after-dinner' conversation.
- In a nutshell my answer to the question of how Cuba became a constituent part of the CSA would have to be 'Texas-style' (which is to say that I believe that it first became an Independent Republic and then voted to accept Annexation, although not without some controversy).
I have yet to fill in the details of this process, but the outline is this; the conflict between Cuban Rebels and Spanish Royalists which in Our Timeline would become the Ten Years War (1868-1878) breaks out more or less on schedule and (as in our own timeline) Cuban Expatriates, as well as International Brigades of mainlanders show up to fight with the Revolutionaries in the approved Lafayette fashion.
However due to the fact that the War of Secession is several years shorter than our own Civil War, there are a great many more youthful Fire-Eaters who failed to choke on enemy fusillades; as a result what I'll refer to here as the 'Continental Brigades' are out in much greater strength (thousands instead of hundreds) and therefore the Cuban struggle for independence enjoys a great degree of success here than is recorded in the pages of our own History (at least after a few years).
At this point, the REAL difficulty begins.
- Unsurprisingly the filibusters and Golden Circle-types (Southerners of the sort who want to turn the Caribbean into a Confederate lake at the very least and would much rather own EVERYTHING south of the Mason-Dixon line) are a key factor in this difficulty.
How so? Well for a start they're talking immediate annexation, although in all fairness so are some of the Cubans (with former members of the Havana Club who supported that sort of thing sometime in the 1850s, to the point of attracting a number of unsuccessful incursions) - to say the least this doesn't sit well with the Spanish (who are not easily to be parted with the vestiges of their Empire) and not all Confederates are particularly keen on the idea of sticking their nose into this particular hornet's nest (those elements of the Government who have been struggling not only to reign in the States, but also to persuade them to work in Harness in the first place).
An additional complication is the fact that a considerable number of the Cuban natives who fought to win Independence for themselves and their countrymen are as black as coffee absent cream; they are in fact slaves sent to the front lines on the understanding that they will win their own freedom along with Cuba's, a harsh reality which causes almost as much consternation in the Confederate States as it does in the hacienda of the average Cuban plantation patrician.
In fact not only is there a Liberty-for-Independence arrangement in effect, complete Emancipation has in fact been tabled by the Revolutionary Government (oh and doubtless the United Kingdom, as well as the United States, will want a say in all this).
- At this point my outline becomes fuzzy, so at this point I'll proceed to explain the logic underpinning my approach to the problem of making Cuba Confederate in the course of Timeline-191.
In brief I want to make Cuba the entr'acte between the War of Secession and the Second Mexican War, as well as a learning experience for the Confederate States which helps facilitate their victory in the latter conflict. With this in mind I want to work our a sequence of events that goes far from smoothly for the Confederacy, but which in the end works out to their advantage.
This is an opportunity to show that the path to Confederate Cuba was a far-from-smooth one and I think that the biggest bumps in the road are likely to be Spain (easy prey … for the United States, whole and entire IN 1898), the United States (who are likely enthusiastic about the liberation of a New World Nation from the Old World, less so about having to confront yet ANOTHER Confederate State) and the United Kingdom (which is unlikely to react to a situation so likely to trouble the West Indies with any warmth - much less to an apparently Imperialistic venture by a Slave Power).
- I think that the UK and the USA are likely to be placated to some degree by the Confederates leaving Cuba as an independent republic for the nonce, but the question of how to put Spain in a position where she can be persuaded to accept financial compensation in lieu of exacting revenge by force is an awkward one; I'd guess that it would take a Bay of Pigs-type failure to persuade the Spanish that the game is rigged against them and that it may be better to be bribed into submission rather than risk humiliation.
I'm not sure of the precise order of events, but I'd guess a bad crossing/storm at sea scattering the Invasion Fleet, followed by an abortive landing that is smashed on the beaches through the application of overwhelming firepower from defensive positions is as likely as any (and such a victory might present a useful inspiration for the Louisville Strategy during the Second Mexican War).
Colonel Ambrosio Jose Gonzales (a Cuban revolutionary who favoured Annexation and served with the CS Army as, amongst other things, Chief of Artillery charged with securing the coastal defence of South Carolina, Georgia and Florida under Beauregard) would very likely play some part in the process of thwarting the deviltries of Spain in this case.
- I'd be inclined to define the Confederate Government's position throughout all this as rather an awkward one; the British are not firm allies at this point (The French having taken the lead in ending the War of Secession in the interests of securing Confederate support for their Mexican venture) and may well leave the Confederacy to fend for itself with a friendly warning which may or may not be very friendly at all (Something like "Watch out for the Spanish … and don't even THINK about reopening the Havana slave markets").
I also like the idea that the C$A3 000 000 payment was something the Confederacy was less than eager to part with, but felt obliged to hand over in the interests of preventing a bluff from being called; I may not be explaining this very well, but I see Confederate Cuba as being '"Acquired in a fit of the absence of mind" in the classic British mould (the actions of men on the ground putting the government in a very awkward position which somehow obliges them to take responsibility for the lands acquired).
As I am unsure if I have explained this whole business very well, please feel free to ask for or (better still!) suggest clarifications which will help clear up this whole mess.
- At this point I am very aware that my outline of events has turned out to be somewhat ragged, so here it is again in a nutshell; a Cuban War of Independence breaks out and thanks to the assistance of Confederates (but not through the actions of the Confederate Government) is successful to the point of driving local Royalist Forces off the Island - The Spanish Government, however, is more than willing to retake the Island and dispatches a Task Force.
The Cubans send a request to any nearby parties (CSA, USA, UK) for assistance in the face of The Oppressor mounting a return engagement - the CSA is more interested in taking an active part than anyone else but its relative Naval Weakness and the fact Great Britain has declined to commit itself (there being as yet no alliance between these Nations and the issue of slavery to come in between them), not to mention the problem of division between the Cuban Revolutionaries adding extra difficulties (not least due to the emancipationist tendencies of the Cuban leadership) and all this ,along with a keen awareness of the relative weakness of the Confederate Government, as opposed to the Confederate States causes The Confederacy to take a wait-and-see approach for now.
The US Government isn't particularly interested in foreign adventures (although some US Citizens are) and the United Kingdom is interested only insomuch as they are determined to ensure that none of this bloodshed spills over onto the West Indies - The Spanish are making a beeline for Cuba, presumably hollering "Santiago! Santiago!" with an enthusiasm fit to drown out the Rebel Yells of the Filibusters.
Then things go VERY wrong for the Spanish through an Act of God (a tropical storm, methinks), followed by an abortive landing in Cuba which is repelled only after it hits a brick wall in the form of some substantial Coastal Defences.
At this point in the Great Game the Confederate President shows his hand and while he's playing out a bluff, the Spanish reluctantly decide not to call it, preferring to cash their chips in before they're flat broke; after a period of prolonged negotiation and saber-rattling they agree to place a price of Three Million on Cuba and their Honour, accept payment and leave (doubtless plotting an eventual return that turns out to be thwarted by the Second Mexican War, the Anglo-Confederate Alliance and the admission of Cuba as a Confederate State). Now the Confederates have Cuba … at least in theory.
- My take on things is that the question of Cuba's precise relationship with the Confederate States remains a vexing one; I'm inclined to suspect that the Confederacy initially accepts Cuban Independence as a separate Republic, but that the Filibusters on the mainland and the Annexationists on Cuba are working to make it impossible to avoid opening up negotiations for Confederate Annexation of Cuba, although I'd guess that the USA, the UK and Cuban Emancipationists are far from keen on the idea.
It might be interesting to suggest that it was the threat of a Spanish Return which fuelled the build-up that allowed the Confederate Army to fight above its weight during the Second Mexican War, as well as meet the United States in a rather more coherent fashion than it had during the War of Secession.
Now I'd guess that in the wake of the Confederate purchase of Cuba (sometime in the late 1870s), relations between the Island and the Mainland hit an awkward point; at this point Annexation is a racing certainty - which pleases some but not All - but looks likely to be an awkward proposition given lingering Cuban resistance to the idea and the increasing anger of the United States over the whole business.
Part of the fuel which fires the Republicans into office and ignites the Second Mexican War before the USA are ready to fight it would in fact be the opposition to the annexation of Cuba; I wonder if the Confederate desire to annex Sonora and Chihuahua (but NOT Baja California) was the interest in strengthening the Mexican Empire in order to make it less likely that the Emperor of Mexico could be bribed by the King of Spain into supporting his efforts to regain Cuba (a tricky proposition for the Confederates, especially if the United States could be persuaded to throw its hat into the ring to secure its revenge on the Confederacy - at the least a Confederacy stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific would be harder to outflank).
- This article has proven longer than I had anticipated; I'll close here by repeating my conviction that the Annexation of Cuba is best treated as a warm-up to the Second Mexican War (at least from Our Perspective, as opposed to an In-Universe perspective).
I'd like to show that lessons learned through the tricky process of removing Spain from Cuba, in terms of the importance of Foreign Allies (the lack of them left the CSA in an awkward fix), as well as a more modern military, the usefulness of a defensive strategy and the recognition of Slavery as increasingly an albatross around the neck of every Confederate would doubtless be the principal points.
I'd also like to think that working experience with Hispanic Cubans also proved vital as a lasting example of what could be achieved through the treatment of such people as honourable allies from the first, rather than contemptible inferiors (to the point of toleration, if nothing else) would also prove crucial; I'm also quite fond of the idea that the Cuban Republic manumitted its slaves before the CSA as a whole did - possibly for exactly the same reason, securing British Support - while this would make annexation more awkward, it might also spark the idea of a Manumission Amendment as a means of securing British Support for the CSA (Quid Pro Quo) at some later date.
Especially if this Manumission were to prove that the reaction of Slaves to being Freed by their masters en masse would NOT be to enact the uglier parts of BIRTH OF A NATION.
In conclusion I heartily proclaim my support for the notion that Cuba was an Independent Republic before it was a Confederate State, but that the CSA played such a crucial role in securing its Independence that the Annexation Lobby was strengthened to the point where it became impossible to resist it, in the process allowing the CSA to draw lessons which would prove crucial to its success in The Second Mexican War.
I hope that you will come to agree, oh fellow contributors!
