TL-191 FILLING IN THE FUTURE

[Joshua Ben Ari]

Now that you guys mentioned Japan, I'm kind of wondering (since this is relevant to the post I'm working on) how are they treating their colonies. The Taisei Yokusankai didn't achieve power IOTL until the beginning of the Second Sino-Japanese War, but considering they had a war with the U.S. which ended up occupying the Hawaiian Islands and bombing L.A, what would be the reason for the earlier ascension? Is it because they got France and the Netherlands to sell Indochina and the East Indies to them, along with beating the shit out of Spain and China in earlier wars?

Because if that's the case, then I can see them removing indigenous Taiwanese tribes from Taiwan and start moving in more Japanese settlers and removing indigenous Filipinos from the island of Luzon to make way for Japanese settlers.

Taiwan was actually treated as the "model colony" in the Japanese Empire, while Korea was more actual imperialism. Taiwanese adopted Japanese names, customs, accepted industrialization from the Empire, and there was even a Taiwanese lord in the House of Peers. Taiwan, at least to me, would largely continue on this path.

Korea, on the other hand, would be more repressive because of Japan's policies (which were quite brutal). Japanese settlers would no doubt be encouraged in both Korea (as they were in OTL), the Philippines, and probably elsewhere in the Empire. Assimilation of Koreans, Filipinos and other colonial subjects into the Japanese culture would no doubt continue, and (with the threat of force) be largely successful.

 

[ZGradt]

Taiwan was actually treated as the "model colony" in the Japanese Empire, while Korea was more actual imperialism. Taiwanese adopted Japanese names, customs, accepted industrialization from the Empire, and there was even a Taiwanese lord in the House of Peers. Taiwan, at least to me, would largely continue on this path.

Korea, on the other hand, would be more repressive because of Japan's policies (which were quite brutal). Japanese settlers would no doubt be encouraged in both Korea (as they were in OTL), the Philippines, and probably elsewhere in the Empire. Assimilation of Koreans, Filipinos and other colonial subjects into the Japanese culture would no doubt continue, and (with the threat of force) be largely successful.

Okay, so TL-191 Japan would still continue to treat it as the "model colony" meaning its a de facto Japanese Island like the Home Islands, yes? If that's the case, then some other ultranationalist Japanese group would have to take control since the Taisei Yokusankai were big on the "pure Japanese race descended from the Shinto gods," i.e. biologically 100% Japanese living on the Home Islands. Because if the Taiwanese tribes and peoples are just as Japanese as the ones from the Home Islands despite being heterogenic biologically, then any Japanese ultranationalist group would have to consider and include the Taiwanese and any mixed-race citizens.

Okay, so there will be Korean-Japanese, Filipino-Japanese, Vietnamese-Japanese, and so on based on aggressive colonization (with use of deadly force if necessary) and interbreeding between Japanese settlers and locals. But any 'full-blooded' Koreans, Filipinos, Vietnamese, and etcetera colonized peoples would be fair game for human rights atrocities, massacres, potential genocides, 'medical testing and experimentation,' and probably live-fire weapons testing as well.

Well then, time to edit my drafts and make it more depressing. I just realized that I won't exist ITTL.

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

Okay, so TL-191 Japan would still continue to treat it as the "model colony" meaning its a de facto Japanese Island like the Home Islands, yes? If that's the case, then some other ultranationalist Japanese group would have to take control since the Taisei Yokusankai were big on the "pure Japanese race descended from the Shinto gods," i.e. biologically 100% Japanese living on the Home Islands. Because if the Taiwanese tribes and peoples are just as Japanese as the ones from the Home Islands despite being heterogenic biologically, then any Japanese ultranationalist group would have to consider and include the Taiwanese and any mixed-race citizens.

Okay, so there will be Korean-Japanese, Filipino-Japanese, Vietnamese-Japanese, and so on based on aggressive colonization (with use of deadly force if necessary) and interbreeding between Japanese settlers and locals. But any 'full-blooded' Koreans, Filipinos, Vietnamese, and etcetera colonized peoples would be fair game for human rights atrocities, massacres, potential genocides, 'medical testing and experimentation,' and probably live-fire weapons testing as well.

Well then, time to edit my drafts and make it more depressing. I just realized that I won't exist ITTL.

Most likely, and it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for Taiwan to be seen to the Japanese like Wales is for the British - a part of the Home Islands that will never, ever leave. There were a few members of the Japanese government and military who debated about that topic, actually - some though that the Taiwanese could never be assimilated into Japanese culture, while others said it was possible. The latter won out, and continued the policies until OTL WW2. That being said, the Japanese atrocities in Korea cannot be understated. They did horrible things there.

I don't know a whole lot about the Japanese Empire and their colonial practices, so either more research is needed or hopefully someone in the thread can provide more info. But it's possible that human rights abuses and massacres within the Japanese Empire happen, and in TL 191 (at least until the Destruction is revealed). From what I remember, no one protested (or protested that loudly) about the Ottomans massacring their Armenian populations, or the Russian Black Hundreds being let loose on the Jews. Either way, TTL gets dark, and dark quick.

I know that feeling. It's the same thing for me.

 

[Gaius Julius Magnus]

Oh I agree - reconciliation will be difficult and no doubt resemble Northern Ireland and the Republic. And the man that I've always imagined as beginning that process of reconciliation within Quebec is Louis St. Laurent; not sure why, but it's always him. It'll still be complicated between Canada and Quebec, and if Canada is ever independent, I have reservations that Quebec would join again. I've also imagined that the French speaking population in English Canada (Franco-Ontarians, etc) would help facilitate that - they're French-speaking Canadians who have been under the boot of American occupation and oppression, but can help smooth ties between Canadians and Quebecois(es).

I don't know why, but I've always thought it would be cool if there was a "de Gaulle goes to Montreal" type moment when/if the British Prime Minister comes to the United States. From the balcony of the Toronto City Hall, he yells "Long live free Canada!" to the cheering mass of Canadians below. And it's this shout that helps spur the Canadian National Party to sweep the Canadian states. I've always imagined that Britain is very sympathetic to the cause of Canadian independence.
.

I could see, possible reconciliation of relations between the U.S. and U.K hitting a sore spot when it comes to the issue of the Canadian territories. Especially since Canada could end up putting the U.S. through it's own version of the The Troubles. A British Prime Minister doing a "de Gaulle" would be cool, and a little funny.

I imagine Republicans would be seen in the better light, while the Democrats and Socialists both administered the occupation, the GOP had little (if anything) to do with it. If anything, a Canadian National Party and the GOP will probably compete for votes in the Canadian states - one appealing to "Canada should be free!", and the other saying "let's work within the system".

Agreed. Republicans would be the most of the three main parties to benefit from Canadian statehood most likely. Would compete with local parties most likely, before a CNP could coalesce and become organized.

 

[ZGradt]

Most likely, and it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for Taiwan to be seen to the Japanese like Wales is for the British - a part of the Home Islands that will never, ever leave. There were a few members of the Japanese government and military who debated about that topic, actually - some though that the Taiwanese could never be assimilated into Japanese culture, while others said it was possible. The latter won out, and continued the policies until OTL WW2. That being said, the Japanese atrocities in Korea cannot be understated. They did horrible things there.

I don't know a whole lot about the Japanese Empire and their colonial practices, so either more research is needed or hopefully someone in the thread can provide more info. But it's possible that human rights abuses and massacres within the Japanese Empire happen, and in TL 191 (at least until the Destruction is revealed). From what I remember, no one protested (or protested that loudly) about the Ottomans massacring their Armenian populations, or the Russian Black Hundreds being let loose on the Jews. Either way, TTL gets dark, and dark quick.

I know that feeling. It's the same thing for me.

Cool. So Taiwan would basically be the 5th Home Island for Nippon. It would raise a lot of uproar for any Chinese successor state, but there won't be anyone on their corner to force Japan to give it back.

I'm not an expert on Filipino history, far from it, but I know the Baatan Death March was the most 'humane' thing they did to its POWs in the area in OTL WWII. So its going to be extremely bad for the Filipinos TTL since they're pretty much in the same boat as Korea, especially if they start doing giving us the 'Chinese treatment' (looking at the map in the wiki, Japan does indeed have Indochina and East Indies, so all those guys are going to get it too). Luzon would probably be as close to 60-70% Japanese by the end of IATD and not just with forced relocations and encouraged settlement. Also, I think it was mentioned that the Ottomans had pretty much wiped out the Armenians as a nation and culture. The only remaining Armenians in the Caucuses are the ones who escaped to Russia, and were being used as people bombs. If people still have trouble believing the Armenian Genocide IOTL, there will be no excuse TTL.

Turtledove's evil, man.

 

[teg]

That does sound more interesting. The problem is a Fourth Pacific War is pretty difficult to avoid. After all the big take way TL-191 US got from the Second Great War is don't ever let your enemies get strong enough that they can threaten you. Atomic weapons will make Japan a huge threat (potentially far more dangerous than Featherston ever war), so if Japan does start developing atomic weapon capability, the US will almost certainly launch a preemptive strike. (And most likely with its own atomic weapons.)

Those are all good points. The problem is I think the Fourth Pacific War needs to happen soon, before the generation that grew up after the war and grew up with images of Charleston/Newport News/London/Hamburg/Paris/Philadelphia* bombings. The late 1950s/early 1960s will also likely be the time when the Canadian and Confederate occupations are starting to grate, especially among younger people who are expected to die. Once they grew up, a pre-emptive strike against Japan will rapidly become politically impossible. A 1950s Fourth Pacific War may work, although it will be politically divisive and economically costly. A FPW in the 1960s wouldn't make Vietnam look tame. Even pre-1960, the costs of the Confederate and Canadian occupations will make a war against Japan unappetizing.

I also don't think a German-Japanese alliance isn't entirely impossible. Or not a full alliance but an understanding Philadelphia and Berlin that a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Japan will mean trouble. Not because Germany views Japan as an ally, but because it will tie the massive economic might of the United States and prevent them meddling in Russia and Africa.

Thus the only real ways I can see to avoid a Fourth Pacific War are either Japan voluntarily foregoing atomic weapons (which is unlikely since the Japanese know they are basically defenseless against the US and Germany without such weapons) or Germany allying with Japan and making clear that any US attack on Japan will be regarded as an attack on Germany. (Which also seems unlikely since why would the Germans want to forego their alliance with the US to ally with a country who betrayed its allies during the Second Great War?)

Again, it depends whether the Japanese develop bombs soon after the Second Great War, and whether the United States intelligence services catch them early enough. A Japan which already has nuclear bombs is a very different kettle of fish to one that could potentially get them in a couple of years.

This all seems plausible except possibly the last point. Can Germany really afford to annex the British (and French) African colonies? The Germans are already going to have their hands full with rebuilding Germany (remember Entente forces advanced all the way to Hamburg, so northwest Germany was probably pretty damaged even before the atomic strike), occupying France, propping up the Austro-Hungarians, and maintaining control in Eastern Europe. It also already presumably has a rather big empire in Africa (assuming it grabbed the Belgian Congo and French Equatorial Africa after the First Great War.) Trying to annex Algeria or Egypt or South Africa on top of everything else the German Empire is already having to do, might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

I agree that Germany would overstretching itself. The problem is that from the perspective of the German government, they have to take something. There isn't really that much more that can be taken in Europe. And in any case, I don't think Germany will annex South Africa, Egypt or Algeria. South Africa (along with Australia and New Zealand) is an independent state with informal ties to Britain. Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia are German puppet states. Coastal Algeria remains with France, with Germany annexing the interior of the colony along with the remaining fragments of France's colonial empire. Sierra Leone, British Kenya, Nigeria, British Somalia, and British Gold Coast (assuming they haven't already been taken over) are all annexed to Germany. The Anglo-Egyptian Sudan becomes the German-Egyptian Sudan. Ceylon and the British Indian Ocean territories are taken over by local warlords/strongman who align with South Africa and Australia, with the smaller, more strategic islands being taken by Germany. This absolutely massive empire is a house of cards and isn't helped by the USA's not entirely subtle, indirect, support for the African independence movements.

Interesting. How big a troop commitment do you see the US making by 1952? If Dewey gets the US involved in New Guinea in a big way, that could give the Socialists their opening for the 1952 elections. (Arguing that Dewey is neglecting the pacification of the Confederate States and Canada by diverting so many troops to a pointless conflict in far off Asia.)

I see the East Irian War being a mix of the OTL Vietnam and Korea conflicts. Politically, the conflict is nowhere near as draining as the Second Indochina War and US troop numbers never approach the numbers of Vietnam, let alone Korea. This is partially because the US bombers are based in Australia and therefore less vulnerable to attack than the American bases in South Vietnam. Despite this, there is considerable pressure on Dewey to end the war in time for the 1952 elections.

The final outcome of the war is one that as with the Third Pacific War, leaves everyone unhappy. The Australians are forced to ease off on New Guinea, with the big highland tribes being given autonomy similar to the princely states of the old Raj. Meanwhile, Japan has failed to install a client in the south-east of the island but the really hard line militarists have been killed off and partially discredited. For the United States, the war has contained the Japanese but there are at least half-credible rumors that German officials in the north were not particularly vigilant in stopping the rebels trafficking arms through German territory.

*I'm going to suggest that the latter four are going to have an even bigger impact than Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the west simply because they feel so much more immediate, particularly Paris...

---

Preparedness Begets Paranoia
by William Cross, printed in The Philadelphia Inquirer, May 20th 1947

Or such is the conclusion must draw from Chancellor Goerdeler's recent speech to Reichstag. Only two months in office, Chancellor Goerdeler has already proven himself to be a more entertaining presence than either Mr. Bruning or Mr. Papen, although hardly a positive influence on the peace of the world.

Rising in front of a Reichstag packed with his lackies in the DVP and coalition partners in the Right-Centre Party, Chancellor Goerdeler warned of the threat of "renewed, economic, encirclement of Germany by certain powers". As part of this nefarious conspiracy, the Chancellor cited recent efforts by unnamed powers to "mislead the peoples of Britain, France, and Russia, into supporting political movements not in their national interest." The speech went on to list the dire consequences that awaited anyone who tried to restore the Entente's encirclement of Germany.

Perhaps the Chancellor views the great American public as feeble minded but this reporter feels as though he greatly underestimates us. It is clear that the new German government would rather keep the peoples of Europe in a state of bare survival while it wastes time and money propping up its out-dated colonial empire. In contrast, the American people have chosen to send aid to the devastated lands of Europe, even as we attempt to reconstruct our own nation and contain the Japanese dragon in the Far East. If Germany is unwilling to take steps to establish new societies in its defeated enemies, then perhaps it deserves encirclement.

----

teg

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

I could see, possible reconciliation of relations between the U.S. and U.K hitting a sore spot when it comes to the issue of the Canadian territories. Especially since Canada could end up putting the U.S. through it's own version of the The Troubles. A British Prime Minister doing a "de Gaulle" would be cool, and a little funny.

Agreed. Republicans would be the most of the three main parties to benefit from Canadian statehood most likely. Would compete with local parties most likely, before a CNP could coalesce and become organized.

The issue of Canada will be a sore spot for Anglo-American relations, but I think throughout the 1950s to when the Canadian National Party comes around, they'll just avoid the topic altogether. And while the generation in Canada that grows up under American occupation knows nothing but the Americans being here, they'll grow resentful. Resentful of the military occupation, the court systems being incredibly biased towards Americans (if the courts ever get reformed and I doubt the Americans would want it), to seeing their parents react to the soldiers, and they'll tell their children stories. And try as they might, Americans can't change the education system - popularize American propaganda, but the kids need to be educated in an American occupation. This new generation of Canadians will hear stories of Isaac Brock, the beating back of the Americans in '76, the 1924-25 Rebellion, the last defense of Canada in the Great War. They'll be inspired.

And when a British Prime Minister comes to Occupied Canada, he'll help spark that. OTL Quebec saw PQ win the provincial election in 1976 (yes, 9 years later but still!) in a landslide, and it's not outside the realm of possibility for the same to happen for a CNP. I've always thought it would be cool (mostly funny) if it were Enoch Powell who was both Prime Minister and the de Gaulle analogue in Toronto. But if you don't like him, then I'd imagine that Edward Heath or Julian Amery could be strong contenders. Maybe Peter Thorneycroft

Cool. So Taiwan would basically be the 5th Home Island for Nippon. It would raise a lot of uproar for any Chinese successor state, but there won't be anyone on their corner to force Japan to give it back.

I'm not an expert on Filipino history, far from it, but I know the Baatan Death March was the most 'humane' thing they did to its POWs in the area in OTL WWII. So its going to be extremely bad for the Filipinos TTL since they're pretty much in the same boat as Korea, especially if they start doing giving us the 'Chinese treatment' (looking at the map in the wiki, Japan does indeed have Indochina and East Indies, so all those guys are going to get it too). Luzon would probably be as close to 60-70% Japanese by the end of IATD and not just with forced relocations and encouraged settlement. Also, I think it was mentioned that the Ottomans had pretty much wiped out the Armenians as a nation and culture. The only remaining Armenians in the Caucuses are the ones who escaped to Russia, and were being used as people bombs. If people still have trouble believing the Armenian Genocide IOTL, there will be no excuse TTL.

Turtledove's evil, man.

Basically, yeah. In my head, anyways, the breakdown of the Empire goes like:

Japan - England
Taiwan - Wales
Korea - Scotland

There's no real Northern Ireland comparison (maybe Luzon?) but Korea and Taiwan will be seen as integral to the Japanese Empire; and Taiwan as part of the Home Islands. I doubt that any Chinese government, in the face of an Empire that spans the Pacific and has occupied parts of China for decades, would have any real method of protesting. Or even getting territory back until the Japanese Empire collapsed (whenever that is, probably mid-1970s).

He is, when you think about the fact that atomic weaponry is much more prevalent ITTL. Compared to OTL, what eight cities got superbombed? London, Norwich, Brighton, St. Petersburg, Charleston, Newport News, Paris, Hamburg. Am I missing any?

And the Ottomans, probably the Germans and Italians, will be at best unpleasant in their colonial empires. Italy, if they discover oil in the 1960s-70s, will stay in Libya and fight tooth-and-nail to keep it that way. Germany has taken most of France's colonies, and won't be so eager to hand them over to majority rule (even if they are tied to Berlin). The Ottomans would be brutal to Armenians (what few are left), Arabs (retribution for the Arab Revolt with British assistance), and probably Kurds as well.

 

[Jape]

Powell seems an excellent choice for a 'De Gaulle' PM going to Canada.

And the Ottomans, probably the Germans and Italians, will be at best unpleasant in their colonial empires. Italy, if they discover oil in the 1960s-70s, will stay in Libya and fight tooth-and-nail to keep it that way.

Italy looked on Libya as France did on Algeria, the "Fourth Shore", integral to the home nation, so Rome will be dedicated to seeing it retained.

Sadly for the Libyan natives, unlike in Algeria the demographics are not on their side. By the 1960s the coastal provinces will be majority Italian (the oil industry would only see immigration grow), while the interior will probably be loosely run by bedouin tribes, supplied with Italian weapons to keep any troublemakers down. No doubt they'll be resistance but by the time anti-colonialism is the political norm in the 1970s say, Libya will be a fait accompli.

It might end up an Israel analogue, with the natives demanding a free, Arab Libya, launching guerilla and terrorists attacks but the simple reality of hundreds of thousands, eventually millions of Italians born in Libya means such a 'pure' idea is impossible, nevermind their crippling military superiority. Similarly those children of Italian immigrants will feel it is their land and you'll have issues of oil boom towns being set up deep in 'native' areas, creating grievances similar to West Bank settlements.

 

[bguy]

Again, it depends whether the Japanese develop bombs soon after the Second Great War, and whether the United States intelligence services catch them early enough. A Japan which already has nuclear bombs is a very different kettle of fish to one that could potentially get them in a couple of years.

I actually think that is probably when Japan is at the greatest risk of being attacked by the US; after it has detonated its first bomb, but before it has a sufficient arsenal to credibly threaten the US with MAD. (Especially if Japan lacks the rockets to deliver atomic weapons to the continental US.)

I agree that Germany would overstretching itself. The problem is that from the perspective of the German government, they have to take something. There isn't really that much more that can be taken in Europe. And in any case, I don't think Germany will annex South Africa, Egypt or Algeria. South Africa (along with Australia and New Zealand) is an independent state with informal ties to Britain. Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia are German puppet states. Coastal Algeria remains with France, with Germany annexing the interior of the colony along with the remaining fragments of France's colonial empire. Sierra Leone, British Kenya, Nigeria, British Somalia, and British Gold Coast (assuming they haven't already been taken over) are all annexed to Germany. The Anglo-Egyptian Sudan becomes the German-Egyptian Sudan. Ceylon and the British Indian Ocean territories are taken over by local warlords/strongman who align with South Africa and Australia, with the smaller, more strategic islands being taken by Germany. This absolutely massive empire is a house of cards and isn't helped by the USA's not entirely subtle, indirect, support for the African independence movements.

This seems pretty plausible, except that Craigo's entry on Italy mentioned that the Italians had purchased Tunisia from France in 1926, and that the Ottomans ended up with Egypt post-SGW. (I would assume that also included the Sudan.)

You didn't mention Rhodesia, but (assuming it exists in TL-191) I would imagine the Germans give it independence as well rather than try to annex it. (Rhodesia is also likely to be a magnet for Confederates expatriates which should make its relations with the US rather frosty.)

I doubt that the US under Dewey would give any support to African independence movements. Assuming Dewey's top foreign policy priority is maintaining a united front with Germany to keep other nations from getting atomic weapons, there is little reason for him to provoke the Germans in regards to Africa. The US probably will eventually start supporting those movements, but I imagine it would be later on (and probably under a Socialist president.)

Also, upon rereading Craigo's entry on Italy I noticed it said something interesting about the post-SGW world; that the Italians were working on their own atomic weapon (over US and German objections) and were expected to have a working weapon by 1950. What do we think Dewey (or the Germans for that matter) will do about that? They don't have the same reason to fear an Italian atomic bomb that they do with Japan, but if the US accepts an Italian atomic bomb than the Dewey Doctrine is pretty much dead. After which you would have to expect the Austro-Hungarians, the Ottomans, the Brazilians, and probably the South Africans to all start aggressively working on their own bombs. (To say nothing of Japan.)

The final outcome of the war is one that as with the Third Pacific War, leaves everyone unhappy. The Australians are forced to ease off on New Guinea, with the big highland tribes being given autonomy similar to the princely states of the old Raj. Meanwhile, Japan has failed to install a client in the south-east of the island but the really hard line militarists have been killed off and partially discredited. For the United States, the war has contained the Japanese but there are at least half-credible rumors that German officials in the north were not particularly vigilant in stopping the rebels trafficking arms through German territory.

Interesting. Even though that's technically a victory for the United States, I would think that such an outcome would leave the Democrats pretty vulnerable in 1952. (Which would certainly help explain why Dewey didn't seek a third term himself.)

I also have to wonder how long until the US starts returning the favor with Japan and begins providing arms to anti-Japanese resistance movements in the East Indies, Indochina, and the Philippines? (The US Navy already has considerable experience running arms to rebels in Ireland and Cuba during the Great Wars, so they know how to carry out such activities.)

 

[ZGradt]

Basically, yeah. In my head, anyways, the breakdown of the Empire goes like:

Japan - England
Taiwan - Wales
Korea - Scotland

There's no real Northern Ireland comparison (maybe Luzon?) but Korea and Taiwan will be seen as integral to the Japanese Empire; and Taiwan as part of the Home Islands. I doubt that any Chinese government, in the face of an Empire that spans the Pacific and has occupied parts of China for decades, would have any real method of protesting. Or even getting territory back until the Japanese Empire collapsed (whenever that is, probably mid-1970s).

He is, when you think about the fact that atomic weaponry is much more prevalent ITTL. Compared to OTL, what eight cities got superbombed? London, Norwich, Brighton, St. Petersburg, Charleston, Newport News, Paris, Hamburg. Am I missing any?

And the Ottomans, probably the Germans and Italians, will be at best unpleasant in their colonial empires. Italy, if they discover oil in the 1960s-70s, will stay in Libya and fight tooth-and-nail to keep it that way. Germany has taken most of France's colonies, and won't be so eager to hand them over to majority rule (even if they are tied to Berlin). The Ottomans would be brutal to Armenians (what few are left), Arabs (retribution for the Arab Revolt with British assistance), and probably Kurds as well.

Manchukuo could be N. Ireland/Ireland. The Manchus and Mongols are the 'protected' minorities and loyal to Japan, while the Chinese, displaced Koreans, and Red Russians are the 'Irish' in this case.

Come to think of it, Mongolia could be in Japan's corner now that St. Petersburg at the moment is a radioactive crater. No merging with Manchukuo, but I can see the Japanese giving the Mongols the silent nod to wreck havoc on Russia and China to take back parts "integral to the Mongol homeland."

You forgot Philadelphia, although considering they didn't hit any of the city proper or its metropole, they might have hit West Philadelphia instead. That's still 9 cities/towns nuked.

As for the Italians idea, perhaps Italy "yoinks" Tunisia as well? Italian settlements were increasing to compete with the French settlers there IOTL. With Germany basically forcing every Frenchman off the African coast, the Italians might take this as a cue to silently add it to the empire as part of their "Fourth Shore" idea. The Berbers might even decide that its better under Italian rule than local or French rule.

EDIT: bguy already said something regarding Tunisia. Disregard that bit then.

 

[Jape]

Come to think of it, Mongolia could be in Japan's corner now that St. Petersburg at the moment is a radioactive crater. No merging with Manchukuo, but I can see the Japanese giving the Mongols the silent nod to wreck havoc on Russia and China to take back parts "integral to the Mongol homeland."

There's a good chance Mengjiang has already been set up by Japan pre-GW2 so its totally plausible Mongolia is 'united' as a client state. I doubt they'll be doing any rampaging but a pro-Tokyo Mongolia gives Japan access to Xinjiang and Central Asia indirectly. Plenty of fun to be had there.

 

[ZGradt]

There's a good chance Mengjiang has already been set up by Japan pre-GW2 so its totally plausible Mongolia is 'united' as a client state. I doubt they'll be doing any rampaging but a pro-Tokyo Mongolia gives Japan access to Xinjiang and Central Asia indirectly. Plenty of fun to be had there.

I was under the assumption that Tannu Tuva would be returned to Mongolia as well, despite its Turkic language the Tuvans saw themselves as Mongolian under Russian administration (read: coercion). So basically a pro-Tokyo Mongolia made of Outer Mongolia, Mengjiang, and Tannu Tuva. Rampaging may have been a huge misnomer, I meant that Mongolia's going to want all its Mongol-majority territories back.

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

Powell seems an excellent choice for a 'De Gaulle' PM going to Canada.

Italy looked on Libya as France did on Algeria, the "Fourth Shore", integral to the home nation, so Rome will be dedicated to seeing it retained.

Sadly for the Libyan natives, unlike in Algeria the demographics are not on their side. By the 1960s the coastal provinces will be majority Italian (the oil industry would only see immigration grow), while the interior will probably be loosely run by bedouin tribes, supplied with Italian weapons to keep any troublemakers down. No doubt they'll be resistance but by the time anti-colonialism is the political norm in the 1970s say, Libya will be a fait accompli.

It might end up an Israel analogue, with the natives demanding a free, Arab Libya, launching guerilla and terrorists attacks but the simple reality of hundreds of thousands, eventually millions of Italians born in Libya means such a 'pure' idea is impossible, nevermind their crippling military superiority. Similarly those children of Italian immigrants will feel it is their land and you'll have issues of oil boom towns being set up deep in 'native' areas, creating grievances similar to West Bank settlements.

Powell as the de Gaulle analogue was my first choice, and his views on the United States as a threat to the UK will be vindicated here. Amery may also play a role, as he was fairly close to Powell in OTL. In OTL, Powell thought that American war aim in WW2 was the destruction of the British Empire. Here, he's vindicated. The Empire is, for the most part, gone. The Empire can't sustain colonies. Australia and New Zealand may have informal ties to the Motherland, and it'll be a 50/50 shot if they keep the monarchy. Canada is firmly under the American occupation, but there's still a festering sore because of both it and the recent addition of the ex-Confederate territories. And while the US may not have any external enemies (Japan excepted), it'll be hemorrhaging like mad with Confederate resistance - leaving Canadians time to organize a party of resistance.

That's true - demographics is not on the side of the Libyans. In 1960, only 10% of the population was European out of 10 million. Most pieds-noirs fled for France, though Algerian Jews were largely split between France, Israel, and elsewhere. With continued Italian control, investment, and colonization, I don't think that Libya will have any real shot of independence. Maybe elsewhere in the Italian colonial empire will be able to go independent, but Libya will be the Fourth Shore.

I don't agree with it being called an Israel analogue, though. There may be a resistance movement among non-Italian Libyans, and may be widespread among the native population, but resistance won't go that far. If anything, Berlin might support Italy keeping the Fourth Shore in exchange for oil concessions. I was always under the impression that while Berlin and Philadelphia might collaborate on keeping superbombs out of other countries, relations were frosty since the '30s.

Manchukuo could be N. Ireland/Ireland. The Manchus and Mongols are the 'protected' minorities and loyal to Japan, while the Chinese, displaced Koreans, and Red Russians are the 'Irish' in this case.

Come to think of it, Mongolia could be in Japan's corner now that St. Petersburg at the moment is a radioactive crater. No merging with Manchukuo, but I can see the Japanese giving the Mongols the silent nod to wreck havoc on Russia and China to take back parts "integral to the Mongol homeland."

You forgot Philadelphia, although considering they didn't hit any of the city proper or its metropole, they might have hit West Philadelphia instead. That's still 9 cities/towns nuked.

As for the Italians idea, perhaps Italy "yoinks" Tunisia as well? Italian settlements were increasing to compete with the French settlers there IOTL. With Germany basically forcing every Frenchman off the African coast, the Italians might take this as a cue to silently add it to the empire as part of their "Fourth Shore" idea. The Berbers might even decide that its better under Italian rule than local or French rule.

EDIT: bguy already said something regarding Tunisia. Disregard that bit then.

Manchukuo would be a good fit for a Northern Ireland analogue. Mongolia, I'd assume, would go with Tokyo if only because the Russian capital is a radioactive crater, and the Japanese provide some form of protection.

Damn it I knew I forgot one But almost all of them ain't too bad. Philadelphia, I don't think, will be too badly damaged. West Philadelphia might suffer some radiation, but it'll get cleaned up rather quick. Until the US swears in the government into Washington DC without the fear of Confederate guns, Philadelphia is the working capital of the Union.

Tunisia will probably end up a protectorate rather than part of the Fourth Shore, if only for demographics sake. There weren't that many French living there (around 250,000 in '56), and I don't see the Italians increasing a combined native population of Tunisia and Libya. Tunisia will be very tied to Rome, and I doubt it could so much as sneeze without Rome's approval, but it won't be tied into the Fourth Shore.

 

[GeorgeUK]

Powell seems an excellent choice for a 'De Gaulle' PM going to Canada.



Italy looked on Libya as France did on Algeria, the "Fourth Shore", integral to the home nation, so Rome will be dedicated to seeing it retained.

Sadly for the Libyan natives, unlike in Algeria the demographics are not on their side. By the 1960s the coastal provinces will be majority Italian (the oil industry would only see immigration grow), while the interior will probably be loosely run by bedouin tribes, supplied with Italian weapons to keep any troublemakers down. No doubt they'll be resistance but by the time anti-colonialism is the political norm in the 1970s say, Libya will be a fait accompli.

It might end up an Israel analogue, with the natives demanding a free, Arab Libya, launching guerilla and terrorists attacks but the simple reality of hundreds of thousands, eventually millions of Italians born in Libya means such a 'pure' idea is impossible, nevermind their crippling military superiority. Similarly those children of Italian immigrants will feel it is their land and you'll have issues of oil boom towns being set up deep in 'native' areas, creating grievances similar to West Bank settlements.

Bonus points if Powell is a Labour/Liberal PM.

 

[ZGradt]

Something else that just popped up, regarding the Black Devastation: if we had 11 million+ African-Americans in the CSA, plus 2.75 million Haitians according to 1940 Census estimates, and we assume the Devastation killed 10 million blacks in both the CSA and Haiti...

If there's only 2.4 million African-Americans left in the CSA when the U.S. finally forces the CSA into unconditional surrender, that's 8.6 million or 78.2 percent of the CSA's black population. That leaves 1.4 million dead in Haiti, or 50.9 percent of the population dead.

Since Turtledove didn't change anything regarding the Dominican Republic, that means Rafael Trujillo has taken power since 1930 and has made the Dominican Republic shove any blacks from Haiti back with border guards or has actively cooperated with Freedom Party representatives to help establish said death camps with Dominican military support.

Is there anything the U.S. can do about them, nuclear retaliation included as an option (but very unlikely, and only as a last resort)?

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

Something else that just popped up, regarding the Black Devastation: if we had 11 million+ African-Americans in the CSA, plus 2.75 million Haitians according to 1940 Census estimates, and we assume the Devastation killed 10 million blacks in both the CSA and Haiti...

If there's only 2.4 million African-Americans left in the CSA when the U.S. finally forces the CSA into unconditional surrender, that's 8.6 million or 78.2 percent of the CSA's population. That leaves 1.4 million dead in Haiti, or 50.9 percent of the population dead.

Since Turtledove didn't change anything regarding the Dominican Republic, that means Rafael Trujillo has taken power since 1930 and has made the Dominican Republic shove any blacks from Haiti back with border guards or has actively cooperated with Freedom Party representatives to help establish said death camps with Dominican military support.

Is there anything the U.S. can do about them, nuclear retaliation included as an option (but very unlikely, and only as a last resort)?

I've always imagined that Trujillo actively collaborated with Featherston and the Freedom Party, and helped kill any Haitian blacks they found and assisted in the occupation of Haiti. It's also possible Trujillo would ship Afro-Dominican citizens into the death camps (in OTL he was quite bigoted against them and Haitians) in either the Confederacy proper or in occupied Haiti. It's also possible he'd kill Afro-Dominicans on his own soil with CSA assistance.

After the war, the US will most likely topple Trujillo when they come to assist the Haitian government (now flush with Destruction survivors), insist on reparations to help the new Haitian state, and demilitarize the border with the thinly-veiled threat that if there is even so much as a whisper of anti-Black propaganda, there will be a new sun in the Dominican Republic's capital or US Marines will be there to... help the peace.

Bonus points if Powell is a Labour/Liberal PM.

I imagine the Conservatives would be put into the political wilderness after the defeat in the SGW, with the lions share going into the Liberal Party or trying to make their own party (which I doubt would be that successful). I'm not sure if Powell would be Labour (but he did vote for them in OTL in '45 to punish the Conservatives for Munich), but I'm leaning more towards Liberal.

 

[Gaius Julius Magnus]

Powell as the de Gaulle analogue was my first choice, and his views on the United States as a threat to the UK will be vindicated here. Amery may also play a role, as he was fairly close to Powell in OTL. In OTL, Powell thought that American war aim in WW2 was the destruction of the British Empire. Here, he's vindicated. The Empire is, for the most part, gone. The Empire can't sustain colonies. Australia and New Zealand may have informal ties to the Motherland, and it'll be a 50/50 shot if they keep the monarchy. Canada is firmly under the American occupation, but there's still a festering sore because of both it and the recent addition of the ex-Confederate territories. And while the US may not have any external enemies (Japan excepted), it'll be hemorrhaging like mad with Confederate resistance - leaving Canadians time to organize a party of resistance.

The Confederate occupation might actually be helpful to rushing along Canadian statehood. The U.S. Army is now actively occupying a good chunk of North America so there would probably be a rush to at least remove troops from the more pacified regions of Canada and instate Territory status so the government can focus on occupying the only recently re-interrogated Confederacy.

 

[ZGradt]

Until the US swears in the government into Washington DC without the fear of Confederate guns, Philadelphia is the working capital of the Union.

Ooh, speaking of D.C, have the U.S. government ask West Virginia to return parts of D.C. that used to be Virginia's portion of the capital. IOTL, the issue of retrocession never got solved, even on the 1875 case Phillips vs. Payne; ITTL, the U.S. is convinced that since Virginia was part of another country and that Alexandria and Alexandria/Arlington Counties are back in U.S. sovereignty via West Virginia they may politely ask the government of Wheeling or Charleston to give those back in return for greater compensation during reconstruction.

As for Trujillo, that's what I figured. Short war with Trujillo and friends curbstomped before shipping them off to court, declaring him guilty for whatever war crimes and crimes against humanity they can stick him with, then string them up with the Haitians' rope of choice. Maybe some of the Afro-Dominicans come and help rebuild and hope to get citizenship to avoid Dominican persecution. Reparations besides construction materials and equipment and monetary compensation could be a Marine or Navy base to keep tabs on things.

Oh yeah, the issue of the Bahamas and Bermuda. And all the British and French colonial possessions in North America. Ideas for them, or we deal with that later?

 

[Baconheimer]

Ooh, speaking of D.C, have the U.S. government ask West Virginia to return parts of D.C. that used to be Virginia's portion of the capital. IOTL, the issue of retrocession never got solved, even on the 1875 case Phillips vs. Payne; ITTL, the U.S. is convinced that since Virginia was part of another country and that Alexandria and Alexandria/Arlington Counties are back in U.S. sovereignty via West Virginia they may politely ask the government of Wheeling or Charleston to give those back in return for greater compensation during reconstruction.

But why, really? The Federal Government gave that part up for a reason, and it seems unlikely that they would want it back. IOTL, there wa a law that said there could not be government buildings on the Virginia side, which was one of the erasons they gave it back. And it could be repealed, but I doubt it would. I hardly think the government would need it back.

 

[Tiro]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11225848&postcount=1748

^Just posting this link here, as it seems a more natural fit on FILLING IN THE FUTURE given the range of dates; that being said I think it a good and solid list of Prime Ministers, well worthy of study.^.