Or even have Yuan Shikai die four years earlier than OTL with Kang Youwei taking power afterwards.
I doubt that would save the Qing. It would only prolong the monarchy for sometime, but the Xinhai revolution was coming.
Or even have Yuan Shikai die four years earlier than OTL with Kang Youwei taking power afterwards.
It was meant to be a reference to Superpower Empire.I doubt that would save the Qing. It would only prolong the monarchy for sometime, but the Xinhai revolution was coming.
It was meant to be a reference to Superpower Empire.
I tend to imagine that the Confederate States of America, as depicted in Professor Turtledove's novels, simply could not sustain any useful presence in China and probably should not - The Confederacy's first concern is and would always be the fact that the North is sitting right on top of South and DOES NOT like them or see any need at all for the CSA - their First Priority in terms of Foreign Policy will be to manage this Existential Threat, firstly by maintaining an Army and a system of defensive alliances sufficient to make the Union think twice before (& possibly even rethink) any Act of Aggression, secondly by ensuring that the South will never be obliged to risk a two-front war that would destroy any chance of sustaining Southern Liberty (hence their probably-keen interest in exerting hegemony over Central America & generally making sure South American nations walk softly where the CSA is concerned) and thirdly by ensuring that there are no overseas distractions to divert precious resources away from the Southland at EXACTLY the wrong moment.
Meddling in the China Markets would certainly rub the Lion's Man just the wrong way, subjecting the indispensable alignment with Great Britain to unhelpful risks. It should also be noted that, as a fundamentally agrarian nation, the Confederacy's commercial interests are likely to be concentrated on the Atlantic Trade with Europe (the South will be looking more to acquire manufactured goods rather than offload them), although it does seem possible that the CSA might try to secure Raw Materials from sources other than those found in the United States (and Asia is a somewhat-plausible source, though Australia and South America should also be considered).
I don't see a Communist China occurring in this timeline... at least not during the Second Great War.
China would basically be the same in TL-191, but deal with a more hyper-aggressive Japan.
I do think, however, that the Pacific theater would mostly be limited to a China vs. Japan battlefield on land and sea, a Britain vs. Japan in what was Malaysia in the Real-World, and a brief Japan vs. Russia during the last few months of the war (sort of like a reverse-Soviet invasion of Japan in OTL).
At best, you can prolong the monarchy for sometime, but there is not much you could do to save it besides seeing a a messier Xinhai revolution and the Qing hold out for a little longer. (More so after the whole Boxers War.) You could always restore it like what Japan did, or even under Zhang Zuolin. (Who was a big time anti-Republican who wanted the Qing to come back.)
So, how is the Chinese warlord era affected ITTL? Does the KMT (or KMT-equivalent) solicit American aid akin to how the OTL KMT sought Soviet aid (before Chiang turned on the ChiComs)?
Yeah maybe! But the Qing were done for by the 20th Century. There are just too many factors at play that make the Qing's demise a matter of when instead of if. There were social, economic, political, and even ethnic problems in China too great for the Qing to handle. The Qing, which were an ethnically Manchu based dynasty, was already viewed as much as foreign blight by the more numerous Han Chinese population. As much as a lot of people in China didn't like the foreigners (and despite what a big chunk of the Boxers said in support of the Qing) and ruling Manchu dynasty of the Qing were not well liked either.
Maybe a year more? Two tops? Either way the Qing are going to fall, at least in my opinion.
Huh, that's a bit tricky honestly. The KMT in our timeline sought support from the US at a specific time there long war with the Japanese. Before that it was the Germans and the Soviets, again at different times in the war against the Japanese over a period of several long years.
The Warlords Era probably occurs the same way it does in our timeline. I can still see the rise of the KMT and Chiang taking place, but a major factor here is the potential absence of Mao and a Chinese Communist Party. The KMT arguably took over a good portion of China by the end of the 1920s to proclaim the Republic of China, but there were still other warlords lurking around that were not under the KMT's control. I imagine TL-191's version of the KMT still has to contend with these warlords, but without a Communist faction to draw his attention away from the threat of the Japanese... maybe things play out differently.
From the sound of it things could not have been better though. Japan might be more of a priority for the KMT without the Communists, but Chiang had a notoriously tough time just trying to organize his army to fight the Japanese effectively. It was a struggle just to get supplies to the soldiers and although the Chinese armies were big on paper and in real life, their training and will to fight was a different story. Even with foreign assistance the Chinese found it hard to fight the Japanese. They simply didn't have the proper equipment or industrial base to fight them effectively.
In TL-191, since Russia is still (miraculously) under Tsarist rule, and with the Russians technically allies of the Japanese for most of the Second Great War, it would be difficult to ask the Russians for help. The US would be tied down fighting the Confederates and barely keeping the Japanese fleet in the Pacific in check, so again it would be difficult to see them giving aid. The British are a no go as well.
However things are different for them in TL-191, such as having the Philippines and (I think) even possessing the former Dutch East Indies. Certainly changes things up for them, but covering that much land for the Japanese is going to be hard, even more so if they're going to take on the Tsarist Russians, weakened as they might be from the Second Great War. But, then again, maybe I thinking too much in terms of our timeline here. I'm just saying that the Japanese seriously need to address their logistics and supply problems here to have a lasting foothold in China by the time of the Second Great War.
I think Japan is pretty set. The main reasons why in OLT they invaded south and attacked America was because they needed the Dutch East Indies oil reserves to make up for the USA embargos against Japan. This is not the case. They took the Philippines and Guam from Spain, they bully the Dutch into getting up the East Indies after the Great War, as well as Indochina without a fight. (Which I see Australia and New Zealand screaming bloody murder at London over.) I doubt there be any embargos against Japan as Featherston comes to power in the South, and the Union got bigger fish to fry.
It is true they need to logistics and supply problems, but they have rolled sixes for almost the whole of of Southern Victory.
I don't see a Communist China occurring in this timeline... at least not during the Second Great War.
China would basically be the same in TL-191, but deal with a more hyper-aggressive Japan.
I do think, however, that the Pacific theater would mostly be limited to a China vs. Japan battlefield on land and sea, a Britain vs. Japan in what was Malaysia in the Real-World, and a brief Japan vs. Russia during the last few months of the war (sort of like a reverse-Soviet invasion of Japan in OTL).
I still foresee some of the battles that took place in our timeline happening. Like the battles of Shanghai, Nanking, Wuhan, probably the Defense of the Great Wall, the Battles of Changsha, Taierzhuang. Without the communists for Chiang to worry about he can concentrate on efforts to throw back the Japanese. However in this case the Japanese are more aggressive and heavily armed I feel. The battles here could take on a more ferocious angle to them.
We'd probably see more aggressive use of chemical or biological weapons on the Chinese as well. I forget, but I don't believe there is a League of Nations in this timeline and it doesn't seem like any laws or rules are being adhered to in terms of their use. Might see them being used more to devastating effect.
Hey, really appreciate you contributing to the discussion! Really great points! Gonna be devil's advocate here just to stimulate more discussion though!
You certainly do a very excellent job and raise some thought-provoking points.
There be a strong Communist movement, but I doubt there be successful. If no major Communists, then Chiang (The peanut head that he was.) would be fighting the American style left-wing factions of the KMT just as much as he fought against Mao. (Such as Wang Jing Wei, and more would be Reds joining the left-wing Nationalists.) So we can see a far worst Ninghan Seperation with the KMT falling into even greater civil war against itself and more Pro-Japanese Warlords.
Like I said, it took kidnapping him to force the man to focus on fighting the Japanese. If there no Zhang Xueliang. (Staying Pro-Japanese as was his father before his assassination.) Then the KMT is in deep trouble.
Nope. There was no League after the Great War. There may be some kind of League/United Nations after the Second Great War...
Granted it took a kidnapping by Zhang to make Chiang pay attention to the Japanese knocking on China's doorstep. So then you think he'd still be distracted with left wing groups in this time line then?
Another question for you guys: Do you think the Confederacy would have a presence in China in this timeline? If so, how do you think events would play out now that the United States has a rival, even in this far corner of the world?