I am of the inclination that there probably wouldn't be a Confederate presence in China, perhaps not even in the entire region of Asia. The Confederacy is generally insignificant outside of North America. They probably couldn't expand out there if they tried. For the United States, they probably do have a higher probably of having some kind of diplomatic influence in the region, but I'd argue that it would be very small compared to Real-Life and would rather be more interested in being fully committed to its own problems in its home continent. Basically, I still think that both nations are too poor to do much else to have the level of strong influence in Asia and, for example, be part of the Boxer Rebellion. Due to Remembrance Ideology, I don't think the U.S. would want to be an allies to the British and French. Even if the Confederacy tried to be involved, their northern neighbor might not let them be part of it. In TL-191, the Boxer Rebellion is more of an European affair without the Americans (U.S. and Confederacy).
I do see, however, a large influx of Chinese immigration to the U.S. if the results are the same. Actually, I'm curious to see what is the policy of immigration to the U.S. in TL-191!
That's an understandable viewpoint really. I see where you're coming from with the idea that Confederates would not be interested in the affairs of the larger world outside of what they can reach. The Caribbean and Central America, for example, seems much more in line with the Confederacy's expected "sphere of influence", with both understandable military and economic goals. After the Second Mexican War of 1881 in TL-191 the British Empire found itself pushed firmly into an alliance with the Confederacy. They intervened in their behalf and used the Royal Navy to devastating effect on the US Navy and its Pacific and Atlantic port cities. They would now rely on the C.S.A. to keep the United States in check to help protect Canada, which the United States now saw as a bitter enemy. From Canada the British and its Dominion forces were able to move south into the U.S., claiming half of Maine in the process (a personal blow for President Blaine and one of the catalysts for his ideology of "Remembrance"). If there was to be another war, the British Empire would take measures to ensure that one of its most valuable territories would be protected, including making alliances with other countries to help ensure that. It makes sense that the Confederacy then would really be a regional power rather than a global "great power".
And that's fine by me really! I still gotta play devils advocate here and try to stimulate more debate over this non-issue as I'm genuinely interested in the topic overall! I posted the thing here anyway so I gotta say something!
I do believe that the Confederacy would still have an interest in expanding its trade networks not only with its European allies after 1881, but also opening up new markets in other countries, including China. I'll give you the point that the C.S.A. may have been in a tough economic spot by 1880, but to say it was "poor" might not be entirely right. After all it was able to purchase two Mexican provinces for the price of $3 million, a purchase that would have given them access to the Gulf of California and to the Pacific Ocean beyond. $3 million is nothing to sneeze at, its big chunk for change for a government at that time to give out, even if it sounds like a comparatively cheap price to bail out the Mexicans who were in debt to the French and British banks. The United States after all was greatly alarmed by the purchase and the realization that it would allow the Confederacy to span from ocean to ocean, one of the reasons Blaine went to war in 1880.
With the US Navy trounced and checked by the Royal Navy, with many of the major US port cities bombarded and even raided across the Great Lakes, the Pacific, and the Atlantic, with San Francisco even being invaded by Royal Marines disembarked from Royal Navy ships, the US army in tatters, and with the political climate in the US cannibalizing an entire political party for leading the country into ruin for a second time in a generation... I'd say the Confederacy, poor as it might be, is still in a far better position to consolidate its new found power and strengthen its relationship with its allies, gaining both wealth from trade and political prestige as a "true" nation. In both the book and wiki it is said the Confederacy experienced a period of national good feelings despite having to abolish slavery as a condition to British and French support. They had defeated their bigger northern neighbor for a second time, down right humiliated them in fact, and even gained some new land out of the whole ordeal. And with two of the world's largest colonial empires now supporting them in order to keep the United States in check (especially since the new German Empire was cozying up with the Yankees), I still believe the Confederates would at least
try (keyword -TRY, with varying degrees of success and failure) to send out economic, military, or diplomatic missions abroad, whether it be to Britain, France, and Japan, Korea, or China, for whatever reason they may see fit to.
I'm not saying the Confederates would establish colonies of some kind overseas or in China. That's just a silly thought. And I'm not saying they'd even be
successful in getting a toe-hold in China in terms of a concession or even a legation in Peking or Shanghai or Canton. But I'd definitely argue that they'd be in a much better position to at least
try and gain something in China thanks to its connections with the British and French, if not an official presence then perhaps an "unofficial" presence in China in the form missionary work from Southern Protestant priests. Foreigners from all around the world traveled to China for many reasons, not just on a purely economic or military agenda. The harm that would potentially come to foreigners in China in the 19th Century was a very real problem the Great Powers face in our time. Even the newly formed German Empire in our time line found itself dragged into the great game in China against Bismarck'ss protests because of individual German citizens traveling out and setting up private businesses. Even the Italians, who had been united as Kingdom in 1860 (only two years before the Confederates in TL-191) wanted to establish a presence in China to get in on the action and that country was remarkably still poor and agrarian by 1900. I really think at least a few business minded Confederates would at least try to set up shop in China or that a few hundred faith minded southern priests would venture out to make Christians out of a few Chinese by visiting British and French ports, to the extreme dismay of the Confederate government that might feel the need to establish some kind of official presence there to better protect them.
Yes, I agree, the Remembrance Ideology is a major factor in TL-191's version of the United States, an ideology that rightfully focuses all that anger and hatred onto the Confederacy. You even point out that the United States would even rightfully extend this anger to Canada and, by extension, the British. They took half of Maine! I'd be mad too. The U.S. took a bad beating and the Germans extended a hand to them to whip the military into shape. Remembrance Ideology spreads and festers in the minds of United States citizens to the point of possibly seeking revenge, setting things up for the Great War. So the country builds back up, its army reforms, its navy gets built up again, all in an attempt to get revenge - and I believe, in a way, to regain national pride and prestige. Of course the United States would focus its attention on the Confederacy due to this ideology, but it would also extend this attention to the British and the Canadians. They need to prove something to them too, this global empire where the sun never sets. Where the Confederacy would enjoy a renewed sense of national pride, the United States would feel it needs to reclaim it, eventually by war, but until then by other means as well.
I say this because I don't want to under-estimate our time line's United States interests abroad before, during, and after the Civil War, especially when it comes to China. The US actually had a very small, yet noted presence in China by the time of the Civil War. It had concessions in a few port cities and even a legation in Peking by 1862, the same year of divergence from our timeline and TL-191's timeline. It had helped open Japan up almost by force, had protected citizens in Shanghai and Tianjin during the Taiping Rebellion and Second Opium War, and by 1900 had a significant missionary presence in China with many US priests converting Chinese people to Christianity, greatly infuriating the Boxers. I'd argue that presence, small as it is, can't be ignored and I'd argue by 1881 of Tl-191's timeline
wasn't ignored. Not by the US government, who most certainly had to recall its Asiatic ships to address the Royal Navy on its Pacific coast, nor by the British, who, perhaps, would have to deal with punishing the U.S. for making it commit a
significant portion of its Navy to blockade its coasts. That is an incredible feat to do if you think about it, considering the vast coastlines the US has by 1881. That is more than a show of force by the British and it would definitely have a say in the treaty to punish the US. Perhaps that means forcing the United States to give up its Chinese concessions and trade ports... giving it to either other European powers... or perhaps to the Confederates
Who knows. Still worth a discussion I think.
