Honestly the biggest surprise is a Luddite isolationist regime lasting for over a century. I figured either the CDS would've put it out of its misery, a reformist/pragmatic faction would've assumed control, the second Japanese Spring would've occurred, or the Volunteer Brigades would've just couped the hardliners and turn it into a fairly generic military dictatorship long before 2162.
Hell if it wasn't for Ezo likely having its own separate ethnic identity by 2162, I figured they would've tried soloing the Ecos. I know the Volunteer Brigades are exempt from the technological ban but considering they have no domestic industry or foreign suppliers, they can't be that tough.
The Volunteer Brigades are more or less the Ecological Union’s equivalent to the Saddam Hussein regime’s Republican Guard from our world. It’s comprised of true believers who are given access to luxuries and resources unavailable to the general population. If the Volunteer Brigades did launch a coup, it would probably be out of a belief that the government was insufficiently devoted to the cause of the Ecological Union.
The Republic of Ezo wouldn’t mind expanding to include the rest of the Home Islands, but wouldn’t be able to launch an invasion without the support of the Chinese, Russians, and US.
By 2162, the debate over launching an expedition against the Ecological Union has been a long running one among the member states of OTO and the CDS. The great powers who lead the OTO can never seem to come to an agreement on the matter.
China has long favored launching an invasion of the Ecological Union. However, this has long been opposed by Russia, which does not want the territory of the Ecological Union to come under Chinese rule. The USA, no matter the administration, was never in favor of launching a war against the Ecological Union without an actual threat, either to the US itself or to a CDS ally. Korea, a member of OTO and still a member of the CDS, tends to favor an invasion, but only if the USA takes control over some territory to counterbalance China.
The Empire of Brazil, like the USA, doesn’t favor an invasion of the Ecological Union without an actual threat to the members of OTO. The very large Japanese-Brazilian community does tend to favor removing the Ecological Union, so that Japan can rejoin the international community as a “normal” country.
By 2162, the Chinese government is actively lobbying the Russians, Brazilians, and USA to support a joint attack on the Ecological Union. The Chinese government is making progress with the US president, who, as it happens, has territorial ambitions for the Union on Earth, as well as in Outer Space.