Related to this kinda, I'm guessing the lack of a serious ideological Cold War like OTL (unless one counts the CDS-GEACPS staredown pre-FPW) also slowed down the development of computing technology (and also Turing most certainly wouldn't survive SGW-Britain, whether by superbomb or by a government purge).
TL-191: After the End
- Thread starter David bar Elias
- Start date
Related to this kinda, I'm guessing the lack of a serious ideological Cold War like OTL (unless one counts the CDS-GEACPS staredown pre-FPW) also slowed down the development of computing technology (and also Turing most certainly wouldn't survive SGW-Britain, whether by superbomb or by a government purge).
Yes, although there’s still competition between the different great powers during the postwar period in matters related to military and space-related technological development. This isn’t always unfriendly competition, such as with the US/CDS-Austro-Hungarian/German/EC Space Chase.
As the saying goes, "Even evil has standards". Even Maurras thought that outright exterminating the Jews like what Russians were doing wherever they invaded, despite his visceral hatred of them, was going too far. Definitely something the books imply and users speculate. Even the Silvershirtists may have not even gone that far, even with Mosely's own antisemitism; they might've just sidelined them from society and done heavy intimidation (one specualtion) by force and coercion. By this post, Maurras wanted them to be "useful" before they were to be rid of. But as discussed on this thread and elsewhere, TL-191 could've been hellish if the the Entente won GW2 ITTL like if the Axis won IOTL. Expulsion from mainland France would've been one result, or perhaps an "extermination through labor" program along with other persecuted groups.
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Other than being the party co-founder and a chief ideologue, does Pujo serve in any prominent cabinet positions/government offices under the regime?
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Adding in another, does Brasillach's brother-in-law Maurice Bardèche exist and serve any role?
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I tend to think that the end goal of the AF regime, had the Entente won the Second Great War, would have been the total expulsion of Jews from the French Empire, along the lines of the Spanish expulsion of 1492. In TTL, one of the long-term effects of the AF regime is that there are virtually no Jews living in France, or Algeria, by 2022.
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Pujo doesn’t really serve in any other prominent positions during the AF period.
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The analogue in TTL to Maurice Bardèche, of the same name, was born on a slightly different date in comparison to our world. As in our world, Bardèche had a career as a writer and journalist. He came to embrace the revanchist, far-right during the early post-First Great War period, and eventually card to support the AF regime. Bardèche rose to become the editor of several Parisian newspapers intended to promote the AF’s ideology. Bardèche was killed in the German superbomb attack on Paris in 1944.
The analogue in TTL to Joseph Barthélemy, of the same name, was born on a slightly different date in comparison to our world. Barthélemy, like his counterpart from our world, eventually became a professor of law. Barthélemy was radicalized politically following the French defeat in the First Great War, and eventually came to support Action française. Although Barthélemy had started his professional career opposed to antisemitism, Barthélemy eventually played a key role in drawing up the AF regime’s antisemitic laws. He also played a key role in a semi-official planning committee which provided the regime with lists of recommendations for book bans.
Joseph Barthélemy was killed in the German superbomb attack on Paris in 1944.
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The analogue in TTL to Pierre Bonny, of the same name, was born on a slightly different date in comparison to our world. He was conscripted into the French Army during the First Great War, and was killed during the Battle of Verdun.
The analogue in TTL to Marcel Bucard, of the same name, was born on a slightly different date in comparison to our world. He volunteered for the French Army in 1914, with the outbreak of the First Great War. He died from dysentery while stationed on the Western Front in 1915.
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René Bousquet doesn’t exist in TTL.
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The analogue in TTL to Paul Carbone, of the same name, was born on a slightly different date in comparison to our world. As in our world, he eventually moved to Alexandria, Egypt as a teenager, where he became involved in criminal activity. In 1911, Carbone was murdered in Alexandria by several rival criminals.
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The analogue in TTL to Henri Lafont was Henri Chamberlin, born on a slightly different date in comparison to our world. Chamberlin lived as a criminal in Paris, uninvolved with political activity. He was killed in the German superbomb attack on Paris in 1944.
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Couple questions on South American border disputes:
The maps in the books and here show Bolivia still has the Gran Chaco region. In your head cannon, did Bolivia and Paraguay still go to war over this region ITTL? If not, how was it averted?
Similar thing with Perú and Ecuador: How was war averted so that Perú didn't get awarded the disputed territory in 1942? Do border disputes between the two last as long as IOTL?
As with Venezuela, they're still shown to have their present day borders on the maps for this thread. Do they have border disputes with the Empire of Brazil ITTL due to them inheriting Venezuela's disputed/claimed territory when they were awarded British Guyana? Have tension reached a heightened point? Or was an agreement reached so that Venezuela ended up renouncing their claims on Guyana?
The maps in the books and here show Bolivia still has the Gran Chaco region. In your head cannon, did Bolivia and Paraguay still go to war over this region ITTL? If not, how was it averted?
Similar thing with Perú and Ecuador: How was war averted so that Perú didn't get awarded the disputed territory in 1942? Do border disputes between the two last as long as IOTL?
As with Venezuela, they're still shown to have their present day borders on the maps for this thread. Do they have border disputes with the Empire of Brazil ITTL due to them inheriting Venezuela's disputed/claimed territory when they were awarded British Guyana? Have tension reached a heightened point? Or was an agreement reached so that Venezuela ended up renouncing their claims on Guyana?
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Now for a head cannon question for you: Do you personally recognize JEB Stuart Jr. ITTL as being the same real-life figure of OTL and Turtledove making a mistake and going along with it without correction? Or do you see him as a fictional character and have an in-universe explanation? I personally see it as the former. Either way, his birth should not be affected at all by the POD. I do note a similar thing with Emperor Pedro IV of Brazil (OTL's Prince Pedro Gastão) you have here in this and corrected the one Turtledove has for TTL, whom would actually be Pedro III (OTL's Crown Prince Pedro de Alcântara, Duke of Grão-Pará). So I believe there'd be a case for my question.
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On a related note, does your Pedro IV live as long, if not, longer than IOTL? I figured he'd be an analogue since his mother was a Czech woman of minor nobility whom his father had met while in exile.
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I have thought about this issue a lot. The different maps out there regarding the borders and countries for the world of TL-191 don't make it easy to determine though, especially since we don't really get a lot of information on these countries. Some maps do show Bolivia clearly getting the Chaco region, while others have Paraguay getting the Chaco or at least half of it (hard to tell with some of the qualities of the maps).
Either way, I do believe that the issue over the Chaco Region will not go away for these two countries. Both of them are going to want this region and both of them will have to settle the dispute one way or another - through diplomacy or war. Even with the changes in this timeline post Great War, I personally don't see the issue over the Chaco just being butterflied away. Bolivia and Paraguay are both landlocked countries in South America as well as being two of its poorer nations. Bolivia has been yearning for any kind of access to the sea - formally owning the Chaco region gives the country access one of South America's major rivers (The Paraguay River) that does lead to the sea, and thus more effective trade with the outside world and a route to economic prosperity. Paraguay, having lost much of its land and people through devastating wars, would be adamant on holding the Chaco region for itself, to preserve its national integrity, to hold land that would give it more effective control of the Paraguay River, and thus a means to gain trade with the outside world. The potential to exploit the discovery of oil in the Chaco is also something that would drive these two countries to claim the Chaco.
Another reason why I think the issue over the Chaco will still be around is that the power dynamics in South America have changed with regards to some of its more powerful countries - Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. Chile, Paraguay, and Brazil all went to war on the side of the Central Powers in the the Great War and won. Chile and Paraguay in particular fought a land war with Argentina. Post-war, the rivalry and animosity between Chile and Argentina is still very alive. Any border dispute between its neighbors is a potential opportunity to gain influence in the region and gain allies in for any coming war. So as Bolivia and Paraguay press their claims over the Chaco, Chile and Argentina might step in to support any one of these nations.
Another reason why I think the Chaco would still be a problem is because the dispute was already a long running issue between the two countries. Clashes and disputes over the Chaco dated as far back as the 1880s and skirmishes between Bolivian and Paraguayan patrols in the area were already threatening to flare up into a full blown war by the 1920s in our timeline. The reason it didn't was because both countries felt they did not have sufficient weapons or a sufficient army in the 20s to go to war with.
In this timeline, with no League of Nations and the USA focusing inward to deal with losses from the Great War and deal with the Great Depression, along with contending with a resurgent Confederacy under Featherston, international calls from the wider world to cease hostilities may be small to non-existent... unless countries from Europe want to really get involved, which will be hard to guess. Personally, I see this potential dispute being handled primarily by the South American nations themselves. Paraguay, having taken part in the Great War coming out victorious, still might have to content with a very unstable political environment on top of carefully preserving its small population that has surely experienced losses from its war with Argentina. Provided that events in this timeline don't change much for Bolivia, it is likely the country will still want to claim the Chaco.
How this dispute gets resolved is a bit tricky though and could happen a number of ways. Turtledove not mentioning the Chaco dispute may be down to him just overlooking the thing entirely and forgetting to write something for it or that a war never happened - I lean more on the side that says the dispute was occurring and that war was possible.
One way that it might get resolved however is through peaceful negotiation. In this case Brazil might act as a neutral arbiter rather than Argentina (given that Argentina is more clearly aligned with the Entente, though Brazil being neutral arbiter isn't exactly ideal). The Chaco might be partitioned equally between the two nations, which gives both of them equal access to the Paraguay river. Clear navigation rights on the river for Bolivia would have the be hammered out to guarantee that both nations may use the river equally.
Another way this gets resolved is, of course, through war. When this war will happen might depend on a few factors. One of the reasons each country did go to war was that both felt they were ready wage war once they had built up their weapons stockpiles. Paraguay in this timeline may have an advantage here - taking part in the Great War means that their army has already gained experience in battle and they may already have fairly sizable stockpile of weapons built up thanks to potential support from the Central Powers - getting guns from the US, Germany, and Brazil. If the skirmishes in the Chaco in the 1920s flare up into a war, Paraguay may feel more confident in its ability to wage war compared to Bolivia. Pressing their initiative and chances the Paraguayans gain the advantage in the skirmishes in the Chaco and push out Bolivian patrols more effectively, thus giving them better control of the region. These skirmishes might well flare up into a war, but perhaps Bolivia might be more pragmatic to back down after failing to gain progress. The Chaco War may occur, but might also be a far shorter, far less bloody affair that goes in Paraguay's favor. Chile and Argentina meanwhile may choose to support a side in this dispute, but since Bolivia may be willing to back down earlier neither power is able to really influence the course of events. For a longer peace between the two countries the resulting treaty would again have to allow both nations to get equal navigation rights on the Paraguay River for a chance at economic growth. This scenario does depend on whether or not Bolivia feels it is ready to go to war and assumes that Paraguay feels it can go to war and takes the initiative, given its experiences in the Great War.
Yet another scenario is a full-blown war between the two countries, just like in our timeline, with a few factors being changed around. This one I feel is the worst case scenario, because it has potential to turn into a bloody proxy war between Argentina and Chile, given their sympathies to their respective factions.
I'd comment more in this last scenario, but it might be too long and may get a bit weird with who starts supporting who. Perhaps others may have their own take on it. I have my own.
Asked this above question around a year ago and got this answer from David.
Man OTL as really taken an interesting turn.
I don’t know if an analogue to the Chaco War of OTL took place in TTL prior to the Second Great War. If such a conflict did occur, it’s possible that it would be more destructive compared to our world if both sides were getting more outside help in comparison to our world (Chile and Brazil assisting Paraguay and Argentina assisting Bolivia). If an analogue to the Chaco War was averted, it may have been through more extensive diplomacy by the Empire of Brazil, the region’s most powerful military force.
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Ultimately a major war between Peru and Ecuador was averted in TTL because Ecuador joined the CDS following the end of the Second Great War. Ecuador was among the first CDS member states to request a permanent US military presence through the new alliance, beginning in the 1950s. The post-SGW governments of Peru, and Peru’s military ally Brazil, were not interested in a potential war against the USA.
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The post-SGW governments of Venezuela would have liked to acquire former British Guiana, but were not interested in challenging the Brazilians for this territory. Postwar Venezuela was a military ally of Brazil, not least because of the fear caused by the postwar US expansion in the Caribbean.
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I’m assuming that the Jeb Stuart Jr. shown in the TL-191 series is an analogue to his OTL counterpart of the same name.
An analogue to Pedro IV in our world could live longer than in our world, but I’m not sure of any exact dates.
This is an excellent examination of how the territorial disputes between Bolivia and Paraguay from our world could play out in TTL, including how the region’s major military powers might respond to such a conflict.
Thanks. Considering Chile and Argentina are bitter rivals of a sort in this world, a war so close to their borders would interest them. Likewise, the outcome of this war may not affect the world, but it would have an impact on the region going forward, especially if other South American powers decide to get involved, shaping power dynamics in South America.
For reference, OTL's Prince Pedro Gastão lived from 1913 to 2007, and was the (disputed) pretender to the Brazilian throne from 1940 until his death at the age of 94. If this analogue mostly matches with the OTL figure, he would be 91 years old when Ottoman Sultan Abdul Hamid III dissolves the Independence Movement. If his father, Prince Pedro de Alcântara, had him later, he would most likely be in his 80s when this occurs. He may live as long as his OTL counterpart, maybe longer.
There's one thing that I only thought of since this: What happened to the Spanish refugees living in France during and immediately after the Spanish Civil War? Were they put into concentration camps and eventually put into slave labor? Deported to their colonies? Or were they deported back to Spain where they met a certain fate? Keep in mind that the losing side were the Monarchists, meaning the left-leaning Republicans of OTL would be fighting as part of this named faction ITTL.
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Another thing I realized: Would the Protestants living in France also leave once again just like their Jewish counterparts?
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