TL-191: After the End

In the USA he is still arguably the most popular historical president, although some of his administration’s policies have been subject to criticism by historians. In general, however, Theodore Roosevelt remains a larger-than-life figure for the US public.
In fact I'd assume TR would almost guarantee a higher rate of Kaiser Bill moustaches in the US TTL.
 
What is the state of modern geopolitics in TL-191 as of 2021? Are water wars still probable? Are certain nations rising? Will certain nations break up?

In 2021, it’s a world of competition between rival great powers. The term “great powers” in 2021 refers to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Republic of Bharat, the Empire of Brazil, the Republic of China, the German Empire, the Russian Republic, and the United States of America.

Not all rivalry between the great powers is necessarily hostile. The Space Chase in TTL, for example, originated as part of a friendly, though spirited competition between the German Empire and the USA to launch the first satellites, place the first explorers on the Moon, and later to launch the first Martian expedition.

In 2021, it’s also expected that two great powers may cooperate with each other in one region of the world (to the point of having a formal alliance), while competing for influence or remaining unaligned in another region of the world.

-
The USA is the single strongest nation in the world, in terms of its economy and military power. However, this is more of a “first among equals” position in comparison to the OTL US position that followed the end of the Cold War.

The USA is allied with multiple countries around the world through the Compact of Democratic States (CDS). The USA is allied with China and Russia though the Pacific Economic and Security Accord (PESA), which was established at the end of the Fourth Pacific War to contain a possible future threat from Japan. However, in 2021, both the US and China are increasingly utilizing the PESA alliance to cooperate against Bharat, which Russia is not involved with.

The USA is allied with Brazil through the Council of the Western Hemisphere (CWH), a UN-like forum intended to facilitate security and economic cooperation between all countries in the Western Hemisphere, with Brazil and the US overseeing this cooperation. The CWH is headquartered in Bogota, Colombia, due to Colombia’s status as a formal military ally of Brazil with a history of excellent bilateral diplomatic ties with the US.

Brazil, China, Russia, and the USA are also allied through the Liberty Space Agency (LSA), an alliance focused on space exploration and colonization. All four great powers intend to use the LSA to claim territories beyond Earth.

-
The Austro-Hungarian Empire and German Empire remained closely allied as the leaders of the European Community (EC). However, the hegemony that both empires enjoyed in Europe following the end of the SGW has eroded by 2021. This is primarily due to the economic rise of multiple countries within the EC, including the Italian Empire, the Portuguese Federation, and an increasingly economically integrated France/United Kingdom bloc.

The German Empire also leads the German Economic Association (DWV), an economic and political alliance of former German colonies. In 2021. It’s a more centralized version of the OTL Commonwealth of Nations, and was envisioned initially by German policy makers as a way to ensure German economic and security interests without the expense of managing colonies.

The DWV system accelerated the political independence of most German colonies by the end of the Twentieth Century. In 2021, the single strongest member state of the DWV (outside of Germany itself), is the Congolese Federation (OTL DRC and Republic of Congo). The Congolese Federation has enjoyed decades of rapid economic growth, though this has been tempered in recent years by the Great Housing Crash. The CF also has one of the most powerful militaries in Africa, as well as arguably the most militarized society on the continent.

The African member states of the DWV will eventually form a security alliance of their own in the mid-2030s: the African Economic and Defense Association. This alliance emerged as a legacy of the Long Crisis, during which several member states of the DWV (the Sahel Republic, Senegambia, Tschad) faced Salafi-inspired violence. The Africa Economic and Defense Association will ultimately be used by the Congolese Federation to weaken the DWV economic and security arrangements in Africa, as bilateral relations between Kinshasa-Ncuna and Berlin gradually deteriorate over the long run.

-
Bharat, in 2021, is the leader of its own economic and military alliance: the Indian Ocean Security Pact (IOSP), which is more popularly referred to as the Chennai Pact. By 2021, the Chennai Pact includes member states in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and in East Africa.

The Chennai Pact, which was established in 1972, was initially used by Bharat to challenge the Ottoman Empire’s leadership position in the Independence Movement, following an Ottoman-managed referendum that saw most of Kashmir placed under Pakistani rule. The Chennai Pact was also established in part as a security alliance against China and the US-led CDS.

The Chennai Pact, as of 2021, has arguably delivered mixed results for the Bharatis, as a coherent military alliance. Most member states of the Chennai Pact refused to participate alongside Bharat in the Tibetan War against China in the 1970s. In the late 1980s, the threats by member state Indonesia towards CDS-member state Singapore almost led to a wider war with the United States. In the late 1990s, several members of the Chennai Pact refused (for historical or religious reasons) to declare war against the Ottoman Empire during the Kashmir War.

By 2021, the Chennai Pact has experienced a major diplomatic setback with the exit of former pact-member Persia. Although Bharat and Persia were allied against the Ottomans during the Kashmir War, the subsequent support by Bharat for Baloch separatists (against Pakistan) and Kurdish separatists (against the Ottomans), led to a severing of formerly close security ties between the two states.

Outside of the Chennai Pact, Bharat has enjoyed close security ties with the German Empire since the 1980s, when Germany assisted in the Bharati drive to modernize its military and expand its naval power. Bharat, in 2021, also enjoys cordial relations with the Russian Republic. Both Bharat and Russia cooperated in covert efforts to destabilize the Ottoman Empire by supporting certain groups with arms and funding.

Since the early 2000s, Bharat has been in a sustained period of diplomatic and security tensions with China (referred to in TTL as the “Long Drum Roll”). In 2021, diplomatic ties between the two countries have continued to deteriorate, as both Bharat and China race to test their respective first superbombs.

Bharat, by 2021, has also taken advantage of the Ottoman Dissolution and the Pakistan Dissolution to expand its sphere of influence in these different regions. The Bharatis are also engaged in efforts to limit US influence in East Africa, following the Somali Republic gaining membership in the CDS.

-
In 2021, the Russian Republic is the leader of the Council of Astrakhan, a military alliance that includes Georgia, a recently reconstituted Armenia. Chechnya, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and the Republic of Ezo. The Russians, as previously mentioned, are allied with the US through the PESA (against Japan) and through the Liberty Space Agency. The Russians, in spite of also being allied with China through the PESA and cooperating with Bharat against the Ottomans, actively compete for influence with both great powers in Central Asia.

The Russians are currently following the Bharati-China miniature cold war and superbomb arms race with trepidation. The Russian government is still undecided on testing its own atomic weapon, given the longstanding fear of a potential German retaliation. However, there are those in the Russian government who believe that a near simultaneous set of Bharati and Chinese tests could afford Russia a narrow window of opportunity to carry out a test of its own.

-
China, in 2021, enjoys cordial ties with the United States through the PESA and the Liberty Space Agency. The most pressing international concerns for Beijing include the ongoing tensions with Bharat and the emergence of a new Ecoist regime in Japan: the Japanese Ecological Union, which consolidated power after the collapse of the Japanese Workers Republic, which started in 2011 and was largely finished by late 2013. China almost went to war with the Ecological Union when the new regime’s leadership openly talked about “liberating” other countries; only intense Russian and US diplomatic efforts prevented a full scale war from breaking out.

By 2021, China has also emerged as a significant power in Central Asia, where competition for influence with the Bharatis and Russians remains ongoing. China is also beginning to develop cordial ties with Persia, due to their mutual antipathy towards Bharat.

-
In 2021, the Ottoman Dissolution, which began in the early 2010s with the overthrow of Sultan Abdul Hamid by the Golden Wolves, and the Pakistani Dissolution, which began in 2014 with the collapse of Pakistan’s militarist dictatorship, remain the most pressing international concerns. Both of these state collapses have since led to major armed interventions by foreign powers. Both crises will later be linked together as the Long Crisis.

-
In terms of conflicts over water, one of the major areas of concern in 2021, as in OTL, is the dispute by Egypt and Ethiopia over the headwaters of the Nile. In 2021, the Ethiopian Empire has the support of its Chennai Pact ally, Bharat, while the Kingdom of Egypt has the support of China. The region is also still dealing with the effects of the US/CDS intervention in Sudan, which started in 2012 and resulted in the independence of both South Sudan and Darfur, which are both now CDS member states.
 
Last edited:
In 2021, it’s a world of competition between rival great powers. The term “great powers” in 2021 refers to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Republic of Bharat, the Empire of Brazil, the Republic of China, the German Empire, the Russian Republic, and the United States of America.

Not all rivalry between the great powers is necessarily hostile. The Space Chase in TTL, for example, originated as part of a friendly, though spirited competition between the German Empire and the USA to launch the first satellites, place the first explorers on the Moon, and later to launch the first Martian expedition.

In 2021, it’s also expected that two great powers may cooperate with each other in one region of the world (to the point of having a formal alliance), while competing for influence or remaining unaligned in another region of the world.

-
The USA is the single strongest nation in the world, in terms of its economy and military power. However, this is more of a “first among equals” position in comparison to the OTL US position that followed the end of the Cold War.

The USA is allied with multiple countries around the world through the Compact of Democratic States (CDS). The USA is allied with China and Russia though the Pacific Economic and Security Accord (PESA), which was established at the end of the Fourth Pacific War to contain a possible future threat from Japan. However, in 2021, both the US and China are increasingly utilizing the PESA alliance to cooperate against Bharat, which Russia is not involved with.

The USA is allied with Brazil through the Council of the Western Hemisphere (CWH), a UN-like forum intended to facilitate security and economic cooperation between all countries in the Western Hemisphere, with Brazil and the US overseeing this cooperation. The CWH is headquartered in Bogota, Colombia, due to Colombia’s status as a formal military ally of Brazil with a history of excellent bilateral diplomatic ties with the US.

Brazil, China, Russia, and the USA are also allied through the Liberty Space Agency (LSA), an alliance focused on space exploration and colonization. All four great powers intend to use the LSA to claim territories beyond Earth.

-
The Austro-Hungarian Empire and German Empire remained closely allied as the leaders of the European Community (EC). However, the hegemony that both empires enjoyed in Europe following the end of the SGW has eroded by 2021. This is primarily due to the economic rise of multiple countries within the EC, including the Italian Empire, the Portuguese Federation, and an increasingly economically integrated France/United Kingdom bloc.

The German Empire also leads the German Economic Association (DWV), an economic and political alliance of former German colonies. In 2021. It’s a more centralized version of the OTL Commonwealth of Nations, and was envisioned initially by German policy makers as a way to ensure German economic and security interests without the expense of managing colonies.

The DWV system accelerated the political independence of most German colonies by the end of the Twentieth Century. In 2021, the single strongest member state of the DWV (outside of Germany itself), is the Congolese Federation (OTL DRC and Republic of Congo). The Congolese Federation has enjoyed decades of rapid economic growth, though this has been tempered in recent years by the Great Housing Crash. The CF also has one of the most powerful militaries in Africa, as well as arguably the most militarized society on the continent.

The African member states of the DWV will eventually form a security alliance of their own in the mid-2030s: the African Economic and Defense Association. This alliance emerged as a legacy of the Long Crisis, during which several member states of the DWV (the Sahel Republic, Senegambia, Tschad) faced Salafi-inspired violence. The Africa Economic and Defense Association will ultimately be used by the Congolese Federation to weaken the DWV economic and security arrangements in Africa, as bilateral relations between Kinshasa-Nkuna and Berlin gradually deteriorate over the long run.

-
Bharat, in 2021, is the leader of its own economic and military alliance: the Indian Ocean Security Pact (IOSP), which is more popularly referred to as the Chennai Pact. By 2021, the Chennai Pact includes member states in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and in East Africa.

The Chennai Pact, which was established in 1972, was initially used by Bharat to challenge the Ottoman Empire’s leadership position in the Independence Movement, following an Ottoman-managed referendum that saw most of Kashmir placed under Pakistani rule. The Chennai Pact was also established in part as a security alliance against China and the US-led CDS.

The Chennai Pact, as of 2021, has arguably delivered mixed results for the Bharatis, as a coherent military alliance. Most member states of the Chennai Pact refused to participate alongside Bharat in the Tibetan War against China in the 1970s. In the late 1980s, the threats by member state Indonesia towards CDS-member state Singapore almost led to a wider war with the United States. In the late 1990s, several members of the Chennai Pact refused (for historical or religious reasons) to declare war against the Ottoman Empire during the Kashmir War.

By 2021, the Chennai Pact has experienced a major diplomatic setback with the exit of former pact-member Persia. Although Bharat and Persia were allied against the Ottomans during the Kashmir War, the subsequent support by Bharat for Baloch separatists (against Pakistan) and Kurdish separatists (against the Ottomans), led to a severing of formerly close security ties between the two states.

Outside of the Chennai Pact, Bharat has enjoyed close security ties with the German Empire since the 1980s, when Germany assisted in the Bharati drive to modernize its military and expand its naval power. Bharat, in 2021, also enjoys cordial relations with the Russian Republic. Both Bharat and Russia cooperated in covert efforts to destabilize the Ottoman Empire by supporting certain groups with arms and funding.

Since the early 2000s, Bharat has been in a sustained period of diplomatic and security tensions with China (referred to in TTL as the “Long Drum Roll”). In 2021, diplomatic ties between the two countries have continued to deteriorate, as both Bharat and China race to test their respective first superbombs.

Bharat, by 2021, has also taken advantage of the Ottoman Dissolution and the Pakistan Dissolution to expand its sphere of influence in these different regions. The Bharatis are also engaged in efforts to limit US influence in East Africa, following the Somali Republic gaining membership in the CDS.

-
In 2021, the Russian Republic is the leader of the Council of Astrakhan, a military alliance that includes Georgia, a recently reconstituted Armenia. Chechnya, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and the Republic of Ezo. The Russians, as previously mentioned, are allied with the US through the PESA (against Japan) and through the Liberty Space Agency. The Russians, in spite of also being allied with China through the PESA and cooperating with Bharat against the Ottomans, actively compete for influence with both great powers in Central Asia.

The Russians are currently following the Bharati-China miniature cold war and superbomb arms race with trepidation. The Russian government is still undecided on testing its own atomic weapon, given the longstanding fear of a potential German retaliation. However, there are those in the Russian government who believe that a near simultaneous set of Bharati and Chinese tests could afford Russia a narrow window of opportunity to carry out a test of its own.

-
China, in 2021, enjoys cordial ties with the United States through the PESA and the Liberty Space Agency. The most pressing international concerns for Beijing include the ongoing tensions with Bharat and the emergence of a new Ecoist regime in Japan: the Japanese Ecological Union, which consolidated power after the collapse of the Japanese Workers Republic, which started in 2011 and was largely finished by late 2013. China almost went to war with the Ecological Union when the new regime’s leadership openly talked about “liberating” other countries; only intense Russian and US diplomatic efforts prevented a full scale war from breaking out.

By 2021, China has also emerged as a significant power in Central Asia, where competition for influence with the Bharatis and Russians remains ongoing. China is also beginning to develop cordial ties with Persia, due to their mutual antipathy towards Bharat.

-
In 2021, the Ottoman Dissolution, which began in the early 2010s with the overthrow of Sultan Abdul Hamid by the Golden Wolves, and the Pakistani Dissolution, which began in 2014 with the collapse of Pakistan’s militarist dictatorship, remain the most pressing international concerns. Both of these state collapses have since led to major armed interventions by foreign powers. Both crises will later be linked together as the Long Crisis.

-
In terms of conflicts over water, one of the major areas of concern in 2021, as in OTL, is the dispute by Egypt and Ethiopia over the headwaters of the Nile. In 2021, the Ethiopian Empire has the support of its Chennai Pact ally, Bharat, while the Kingdom of Egypt has the support of China. The region is also still dealing with the effects of the US/CDS intervention in Sudan, which started in 2012 and resulted in the independence of both South Sudan and Darfur, which are both now CDS member states.
I am interested at China nearly went to the war with Ecoist Japan.
 
I am interested at China nearly went to the war with Ecoist Japan.

In early 2011, the Japanese Workers Republic collapsed in the face of a popular uprising that followed the failure of People’s Friend Himura Tamiko to respond to the devastation caused by the Tohoku earthquake. The uprising resulted in the coming to power of the Japanese Ecoist movement, which was the most organized of the anti-Syndicalist political opposition.

The Ecological Union was formally established in the spring of 2011, and at first there was some hope in international circles that the new government would normalize diplomatic ties with the other nations of the world. The Ecological Union’s governing body, the Ecological Collective, did not carry on brutal practices from the Imperial and Syndicalist periods; the labor camps run the Syndicalists were closed. The Ecological Collective, in its first official statement, apologized for the atrocities committed by the Japanese Empire during the Fourth Pacific War. Unfortunately, the Ecological Collective then went on to state that their revolution would not be complete until the world was united in a single Ecological Union, and that wherever the Final Revolution failed to naturally emerge, it would be brought about by the Ecological Union’s newly formed All-Volunteer Ecological Brigade.

It was after this 2011 address that the governments of China, Russia, and the United States threatened to launch a joint invasion of the Ecological Union if the new government attempted an offensive campaign. The government of China almost decided to launch a unilateral attack on the Ecological Union, which required intense Russian and US diplomacy to prevent.
 
I do have a question, given that this world is much more militaristic and colonies have lasted much longer, what was it that prevented the Germans from deciding to intervene in the Congo to bring a more Berlin-friendly government. Was it a fear of quagmire or warnings from other powers not to do so?
 
By TTL's 2021 who is considered the most evil person in history? Like how Hitler and Stalin are viewed in OTL.

I'd imagine it would be both Jake Featherston and Ishii Yamada, but are there other people in TTL's history who also fit the bill in TTL's equivalent of pop culture?
 
By TTL's 2021 who is considered the most evil person in history? Like how Hitler and Stalin are viewed in OTL.

I'd imagine it would be both Jake Featherston and Ishii Yamada, but are there other people in TTL's history who also fit the bill in TTL's equivalent of pop culture?

In 2021, Featherston and Ishii are both viewed by the US public at large as being the country’s most despicable historic enemies, along with Clarence Potter.
 
I do have a question, given that this world is much more militaristic and colonies have lasted much longer, what was it that prevented the Germans from deciding to intervene in the Congo to bring a more Berlin-friendly government. Was it a fear of quagmire or warnings from other powers not to do so?

In 2021, diplomatic relations between the Congolese Federation and the German Empire have not deteriorated to the point of no return. The worsening of diplomatic ties between the two countries is a more long-term process.

In any case, a German military intervention in response to the election of an anti-German Chancellor of the Congolese Federation will not be in the cards by the time relations deteriorate significantly later in the 2030s, due to several factors. For one, the German Empire, along with the other major European Community member states, remain militarily engaged in the the Middle East, albeit in more of a peacekeeping role. The Germans (along with Austria-Hungary and the Portuguese Federation) already experienced a harsh lesson in the limitations of military interventions in Africa in the 1970s, during the joint military intervention in South Africa.

The Germans also, more than anything else, desire political stability in the member states of the German Economic Association, which would be threatened by supporting an attempted coup or a major military intervention. Such actions would also alienate the other African member states of the DWV.
 
As of 2021, what do the USA, UK, and France think of the other (and what do citizens of these nations think of eachother)? Is there still regret about siding with the CSA?
David's answered this one before at least once:
As of 2019, the US diplomatic relationships with the UK and France are best described as “polite”. The US is not enemies with either country, but neither is the US an ally. In any case, both the UK and France are part of the Austro-Hungarian/German led European Community, and therefore not of high interest to US policymakers: it’s not considered...sensible in either Washington or Berlin to disrupt the other Great Power’s alliance systems.

There is a level of popular revulsion in both the UK and France (especially in the UK) that their nations ever allied with the Confederacy.

Some policymakers in London and Paris wonder, even as they plan a united Anglo-French economic and political rise under the EC, if perhaps one day the US could one day be played off against the Austro-Hungarian/German bloc. But that’s for another generation to worry about.
 
I'd like to go into more details:
  1. The Ottoman Empire is supposed to dissolve in the 2010s, what the (rough or detailed) timeline from the initial ignition (it's not the Arab Spring, I know, but still) to the final state of the new international borders?
  2. Are Germany and Austria-Hungary still called empires in daily parlance even if they're still monarchies? Japan still has an emperor, but managed the transition from "Dai-Nihon Teikoku" to the mere "Nihon-koku" which says a lot about the country's political evolution.
  3. Is it even plausible that Austria-Hungary still exists in any form? Is it even called like that? What about an amiable divorce along the lines of OTL Czechoslovakia?
 
I'd like to go into more details:
  1. The Ottoman Empire is supposed to dissolve in the 2010s, what the (rough or detailed) timeline from the initial ignition (it's not the Arab Spring, I know, but still) to the final state of the new international borders?
  2. Are Germany and Austria-Hungary still called empires in daily parlance even if they're still monarchies? Japan still has an emperor, but managed the transition from "Dai-Nihon Teikoku" to the mere "Nihon-koku" which says a lot about the country's political evolution.
  3. Is it even plausible that Austria-Hungary still exists in any form? Is it even called like that? What about an amiable divorce along the lines of OTL Czechoslovakia?

I would be amazed if A-H managed to survive to 2021 on that form what it was yet under Franz Joseph And even more would be if A-H can keep Serbia. How it was even possible? OTL A-H never wanted conquer the country when it had already enough of its own problems with mutliple ethnic groups.
 
Regarding education, does the US teach about things like what happened to the Armenians or is that something that is just awkwardly ignored due to having been allies with the Ottomans at the time? Also given that you have Austria-Hungary being fairly stable, did they do something like deport the Serbs or expel them since it seems unlikely Serbia would ever be quiet?
 
I would be amazed if A-H managed to survive to 2021 on that form what it was yet under Franz Joseph And even more would be if A-H can keep Serbia. How it was even possible? OTL A-H never wanted conquer the country when it had already enough of its own problems with mutliple ethnic groups.
I've also thought that instead of annexing Serbia, there'd be a member of the House of Obrenović on the throne or someone distantly related to them since said house were more friendly to the Austro-Hungarians during their rule. Because of that, Alexander I and his wife were deposed and murdered during the May Coup of 1905 and replaced with the rival and pro-Russian House of Karadjordjević.
 
What about life and legacy of the counterparts of TTL version of Anne Frank, Martin Luther King Jr., and Malcom X?

Yes, I know the first two were born in 1929, while the third was born in 1925 (since around 1922 is the year when RL figures who were born during or after that year in TTL are butterflied out of existence). But I'm still curious if they existed or not as well as their impact on TTL.

For Anne Frank obviously she doesn't live and die during the Holocaust. Though for the latter two it might be more difficult to determine, because of the CSA's Population Reduction and wether they survive it or not.
 
What about life and legacy of the counterparts of TTL version of Anne Frank, Martin Luther King Jr., and Malcom X?

Yes, I know the first two were born in 1929, while the third was born in 1925 (since around 1922 is the year when RL figures who were born during or after that year in TTL are butterflied out of existence). But I'm still curious if they existed or not as well as their impact on TTL.

For Anne Frank obviously she doesn't live and die during the Holocaust. Though for the latter two it might be more difficult to determine, because of the CSA's Population Reduction and wether they survive it or not.

Anne Frank, Martin Luther King Jr., and Malcolm X did not exist in TTL.
 
Top