TL-191 - a restart in 1863 - Discussion thread

I began rereading TL-191 a few months ago - and thought to myself that there were not enough butterflies flying - and that from Camp Hill onwards.

For the time between Camp Hill and the Start of the Second Mexican War not much seemed to happpen outside the US and Mexico. Also the Years up to 1914 seem to have develloped as OTL.

I DISBELIEVE

There must be more change in the world due to an independent Confederacy.

Lets Start with the years between 1863 - 1872.

1864 - 2nd Mexican Empire is established by Napoleon. Maximilian of Habsburg becoming Emperor. This Empire continues to exist. Mexico bbecomes the target of much immigration from Austria-Hungary and France.

1867 - Russia approaches the US (again after a first try in 1859) but again the US is not interested.

1868 - The "Nine Years War" starts with cuba declaring independence from Spain. It ends (guess) nine years later. Cuban rebels are secretly supplied by the CSA. Britain and France mediate a peace settlement with Cuba becoming independent in 1877. A year later in 1878 Cuba asks to become a member state of the CSA, which is granted. Cuba gets ome special rights (like use of Spanish as primary language, officials have to speak English too). The CSA starts to establish a naval base at Guantanamo.

1870/71 - The last French Troops leave Mexico to fight in the French-German war. Mexico declares war on Prussia. The Montezuma Legion attempts to relieve Bazaine at Metz and almost breaks through. The Montezuma-March is said to be composed by John Philip Sousa, but he later denied to have written it. THE CSA sends a volunteer brigade (Brg. GEn JEB Stuart is in command) which arrives in Brest the day after the hostilities have ended. This Brigade was sent due to a secret alliance betweeen the CSA/France and the Mexican Empire - originally meant to secure French influence in the Americas. THe Brigade is used by the French government as "police Force" immediately after the War.

1871 - Virginia adopts a new constitution - the fact that West Virgina broke away is negated by the fact represtatives for the "lost counties" are appointed by the governor after each election (usually reflecting the overal outcome)

1871 - 1876 - Third Carlist war: Charles VII suceeds in claiming the Spanish Crown (the CSA volunteer brigade already in France is offered to Carlos VII by the CSA Government under the provision that Carlos VII will grant independence to Cuba after he ascends the spanish throne. This was simply using an opportunity and not a pre planned strategy - Cuban independence was one of the Prices paid by Carlos VII for secret and non so secret CSA support.

ideas concerns additions ?
 
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I began rereading TL-191 a few months ago - and thought to myself that there were not enough butterflies flying - and that from Camp Hill onwards.

For the time between Camp Hill and the Start of the Second Mwxican War not much seemed to happpen outside the US and Mexico. Also the Years up to 1914 seem to have develloped as OTL.

I DISBELIEVE

There must be more change in the world due to an independent Confederacy.

Lets Start with the years between 1863 - 1872.

1864 - 2nd Mexican Empire is established by Napoleon. Maximilian of Habsburg becoming Emperor. This Empire continues to exist. Mexico bbecomes the target of much immigration from Austria-Hungary and France.

1867 - Russia approaches the US (again after a first try in 1859) but again the US is not interested.

1868 - The nine Years War starts with cuba declaring indeopendence from Spain. It ends (guess) nine years later. Cuban rebels are secretly supplied by the CSA. Britain and France mediate a peace settlement with Cuba becoming independent in 1877. A year later in 1878 Cuba asks to become a member state of the CSA, which is granted. Cuba gets ome special rights (like use of Spanish as primary language, officials have to speak English too). The CSA starts to establish a naval base at Guantanamo.

1870/71 - last French Troops leave Mexico to fight in the French-German war. Mexico declares war on Prussia. The Montezuma Legion attempts to relieve Bazaine at Metz almost breaks through. The Montezuma-March is said to be composed by John Philip Sousa, but he later denied to have written it. THE CSA sends a volunteer brigade (Brg. GEn JEB Stuart is in command) which arrives in Brest the day after the hostilities have ended.

1871 - Virginia adopts a new constitution - the fact that West Virgina broke away is negated by the fact represtatives for the "lost counties" are appointed by the governor after each election (usually reflecting the overal outcome)

1871 - 1876 - third Carlist war Charles VII suceeds in claiming the Spanish Crown (the CSA volunteers to France moved to Spain - Cuban independence was one of the Prices paid by Carlos VII for secret and non so secret CSA support.

ideas concerns additions ?

neat except for the CS troops in France & Spain. i don't get that
 

bguy

Donor
1868 - The "Nine Years War" starts with cuba declaring independence from Spain. It ends (guess) nine years later. Cuban rebels are secretly supplied by the CSA.

Why would the CSA support Cuban rebels? The antebellum South wanted to seize Cuba to maintain the balance of slave and free states in the US, but that's no longer an issue in the CSA. And the last thing the CSA will want to do is help a rebellion that includes large numbers of slaves. If anything I would expect the CSA to support the Spanish, since as long as Spain maintains slavery in Cuba that helps keep the CSA from being a diplomatic pariah, and it is very much in the CSA's interest for anything that looks even slightly like a slave uprising to be quickly put down lest their own slaves start getting ideas.
 
The CSA probably could not support Cuban rebels that quickly, and even then, why would they? I could also see the CSA and Brazil having close ties. Finally, the CSA would really really want West Virginia. Next war they win, they should get it.
 
The CSA probably could not support Cuban rebels that quickly, and even then, why would they? I could also see the CSA and Brazil having close ties. Finally, the CSA would really really want West Virginia. Next war they win, they should get it.

But they can enforce West Virginia? that is reverse maryland, not wanted to secedded but when virginia goes they did were able to cut down and federal troops proved it possible, like maryland who wanted to seccesed but failed thanks to quick federal action(who was completely illegal but that is other point)

That would be a Fait Accomplit, ironically New Mexico Territory is a price worth better to pressure for
 
But they can enforce West Virginia? that is reverse maryland, not wanted to secedded but when virginia goes they did were able to cut down and federal troops proved it possible, like maryland who wanted to seccesed but failed thanks to quick federal action(who was completely illegal but that is other point)

That would be a Fait Accomplit, ironically New Mexico Territory is a price worth better to pressure for
It would be really hard to hold down, but I think the Virginia government would be hell-bent on regaining the "western counties".
 
If Napoleon III's Mexican expedition ends somewhat successful there will most likely be no Franco-German War in 1870 because the emperor will not feel the acute pressure to achieve something grandiose to alleviate the loss of face OTL's fiasco of the intervention in Mexico brought him. Thus he'll be far less likely to step into Bismarck's trap than he was IOTL.
 
If Napoleon III's Mexican expedition ends somewhat successful there will most likely be no Franco-German War in 1870 because the emperor will not feel the acute pressure to achieve something grandiose to alleviate the loss of face OTL's fiasco of the intervention in Mexico brought him. Thus he'll be far less likely to step into Bismarck's trap than he was IOTL.
There would most likely be a Franco-German war because Bismark/Wilhelm I will still want to unify Germany.

Because Maximilian was successful in his Mexico adventure, France and Austria should ally together - so there is a buffer against Germany/Prussia. To that end, i would also suspect that Germany/Prussia would ally with Russia to oppose the Franco-Austrian Alliance.
 
THE German War of 1866 is inevitable - and the outcome is roughly what you got OTL (Don't feel to have to change minor things)

The Germany French war is one that is also hard to butterfly away with changes mainly in the Americas (initially). Bismarck is still behind it and France is a bit weaker (perceived as many troops are in Mexico). On the "Balance" France expects its treaty with the CSA and Imperial Mexico will yield troops and supplies in the long run - but as OTL teh battle was too short.

Austria OTL and TTL was not really ready to support France - no butterflies here - if the war klasted longer and France seemed to get the upper hand - then yes, but as it is Austria is thinking its not ready and the Italians sit and wait for an opportunity to get more lands ...

Cuba - well In TL-191 canon Cuba was bought by the Confederacy from Spain - but why would Spain sell it - using OTLs 10 - years war to construct a plausible reason why Cuba joins the CSA seems a better solution ;)

I am not sure how the Carlist Spain develops ;)
 
THE German War of 1866 is inevitable - and the outcome is roughly what you got OTL (Don't feel to have to change minor things)

The Germany French war is one that is also hard to butterfly away with changes mainly in the Americas (initially). Bismarck is still behind it and France is a bit weaker (perceived as many troops are in Mexico). On the "Balance" France expects its treaty with the CSA and Imperial Mexico will yield troops and supplies in the long run - but as OTL teh battle was too short.

Austria OTL and TTL was not really ready to support France - no butterflies here - if the war klasted longer and France seemed to get the upper hand - then yes, but as it is Austria is thinking its not ready and the Italians sit and wait for an opportunity to get more lands ...

Cuba - well In TL-191 canon Cuba was bought by the Confederacy from Spain - but why would Spain sell it - using OTLs 10 - years war to construct a plausible reason why Cuba joins the CSA seems a better solution ;)

I am not sure how the Carlist Spain develops ;)
You know, I kind of think with an Austrian Emperor in French Mexico, Austria and France might have an alliance, so France might join in in 1866, leading to a smaller Germany allied with Britain.
 
BAconheimer - but OTL in 1866 the Maximilian was still Emperor of Mexico. And Frnace did not help Austria in th German war ;)

Maximilian took the throne against the Will of his Brother and had to renounce all claims to the Austrian throne. Mexico was thus no Austrian project.
 
BAconheimer - but OTL in 1866 the Maximilian was still Emperor of Mexico. And Frnace did not help Austria in th German war ;)

Maximilian took the throne against the Will of his Brother and had to renounce all claims to the Austrian throne. Mexico was thus no Austrian project.
Hmm. I guess that could be. But if we had an Austro-French alliance, perhaps Britain would side with Germany to prevent them from dismantling it. That would be more interesting than a copy of OTL.
 
Hmm. I guess that could be. But if we had an Austro-French alliance, perhaps Britain would side with Germany to prevent them from dismantling it. That would be more interesting than a copy of OTL.

Austria can be an more 'friendly' with France but any possible intervention can be prevented by Russian menacing of mobilization (IRC there were a secret treaty between Russia and Prussia regarding this) or Italy put troops at the border to support Prussia (maybe the alliance is stronger or relationships with France much worse)
 
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