How could this [potentiall change the Vietnam War if at all?
I think we're thinking to small here. If the KMT realised earlier which way the winds were turning, I'm fairly sure they could manage to maintain control of Guangdong (which was the primary region occupied by the KMT before the Northern Expeditions) and Fujian (whose island are in OTL administered by ROC), aswell as Hainan.
(But then again, I have a bad habit of always attempting to include an independent Cantonese polity in my TLs...)
However, with all this land for the Nationalists to settle in the South, we probably won't see so large a migration to Taiwan... meaning that Indigenous Taiwanese will remain dominant, but persecuted... perhaps leading to a very active Taiwanese secessionist movement?
The retrocession of Taiwan to China had been a demand of the ROC since its foundation, and it was formally agreed upon at the Tehran Summit in 1943, so the Nationalists would have no reason whatsoever to change their minds about it. In psychological terms, Taiwan was as important to China as Alsace-Lorraine was to France. Anyway, how could Jiang explain that, after eight years of total war against Japan and the sacrifice of millions of Chinese lives, Japan could on second thought remain in control of some Chinese territory?Actually, Taiwan could very well be left in Japanese hands.
Probably an urban myth, seeing as the Qiongzhou Strait is 30 kilometers wide.
This obviously isnt my map, but here is one that is close
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/attachment.php?attachmentid=23007&stc=1&d=1170968589
The retrocession of Taiwan to China had been a demand of the ROC since its foundation, and it was formally agreed upon at the Tehran Summit in 1943, so the Nationalists would have no reason whatsoever to change their minds about it. In psychological terms, Taiwan was as important to China as Alsace-Lorraine was to France. Anyway, how could Jiang explain that, after eight years of total war against Japan and the sacrifice of millions of Chinese lives, Japan could on second thought remain in control of some Chinese territory?
How Chinese the territory was could be disputed, however. Furthermore, the Japanese took "Formosa" in Century XIX. Their most recent war with the Chinese started after 1900.
How French Alsace-Lorraine was could be disputed, however. Furthermore, the Japanese took "Alsatien-Lotharingen" in Century XIX. Their most recent war with the French started after 1900. And yet France was desperate to retake A-L... I think the Chinese desire for Taiwan was similar.How Chinese the territory was could be disputed, however. Furthermore, the Japanese took "Formosa" in Century XIX. Their most recent war with the Chinese started after 1900.
How about Tienamen Square causing the rise of a White China somewhere in the South?
The territory would be more likely to go to Australia than to Japan, and it ain't going to Australia.
How French Alsace-Lorraine was could be disputed, however. Furthermore, the Japanese took "Alsatien-Lotharingen" in Century XIX. Their most recent war with the French started after 1900. And yet France was desperate to retake A-L... I think the Chinese desire for Taiwan was similar.
Why would it go to Australia
It wouldn't.
No one was going to let Japan keep Taiwan, which was perceived as one of the earliest examples of Japanese imperialism.
I was under the impression that the Americans were contemplating letting Japan keep the island, but I may be mistaken.