Tiny Nationalist South China

Suppose that the Chinese Civil War ended in 1949/'50s, with the Nationalists fleeing to Taiwan. However, perhaps with U.S. aid, they managed to hold on to a province (or at least a city) or two in southern China. But for all intents and purposes, Taiwan is Nationalist China. The border between China proper and the tiny ROC areas in the south quickly become one of the heaviest defended places in the world.

Where can we draw a line? Which areas were last to fall?
 
I suppose Hainan island (sp) isn't technically mainland china? but perhaps nationalist china could keep that? or what about areas around Hong kong?
 

Gremlin

Banned
expect massive communist infiltration and propaganda against the remaining provinces till the oppressed masses in those areas rise up against their masters.

Taiwan + Hainan might be sustainable but any possesions on the Mainland would be eventually taken by the PRC.
 
Yes, I guess if you want to keep those one or two provinces, you've got to fill them with GIs first. But you gave me an idea: WI Hongkong and Macau aren't returned to the PRC, but Taiwan?
 
Max Sinister said:
Yes, I guess if you want to keep those one or two provinces, you've got to fill them with GIs first. But you gave me an idea: WI Hongkong and Macau aren't returned to the PRC, but Taiwan?

Well, THAT would be interesting. I can already see the angry PRC screaming in anger.
 
Hainan Island might work.

IIRC Communist forces invaded the island by swimming there, so the Nationalists will have a harder time defending than Taiwan, but it could still be done.

And once the Communist regime is in power for awhile, I expect whatever masses there are in rump South China to realize they got the better deal (you'd start seeing people fleeing the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, etc).
 
MerryPrankster said:
IIRC Communist forces invaded the island by swimming there, so the Nationalists will have a harder time defending than Taiwan, but it could still be done.

Probably an urban myth, seeing as the Qiongzhou Strait is 30 kilometers wide. :rolleyes:
 
fenkmaster said:
Probably an urban myth, seeing as the Qiongzhou Strait is 30 kilometers wide. :rolleyes:

Oops.

Then a Nationalist Hainan is doable too. I wonder if they'll be able to keep the Ryuku (sp?) islands as well--aren't those under Chinese control?
 
The Ryukyu Islands are Japanese, though American-controlled at the time (they were returned to Japan in the 60s or 70s, I think). I don't think there's much of a chance for them ending up in the hands of China.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Okay, so a Nationalist controlled Hainan is doable. I don't know how it would effect mainland Communist China, but how much more powerful would Nationalist China be with Hainan, and possibly several million or more additional people, be. Since it is closer to the mainland that Taiwan, might a number of people that can not escape to Taiwan, or can't get into Macau or Hong Kong be able to successfully flee to Hainan instead?
 
Perhaps unlike in OTL, the U.S. gov't decides to finally try to stop communism from taking over China, and at the last moment sends the support necessary to at least secure Taiwan and Hainan for the R.O.C.

A cute idea. Isn't what I expected when I made the thread, but probably the best that could be possible for the already-unpopular Nationalists.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Having Hainan remain under KMT control sounds plausible enough. In OTL it held out until May 1950, a mere few weeks before the Korean War began.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Max Sinister said:
But then National China wouldn't really be much bigger than today...
Well, at 33,920 km2, Hainan would make the Republic of China almost twice as large as it is in OTL, since the size of Taiwan is 35,980 km2. Also, Taiwan, despite being mostly covered with mountains and jungles, still manages to host a population of 23 million, crammed along the Western coastline. Hainan, OTOH, while in OTL being home to 8 million people, is flatter and could realistically accommodate over three times as many people.
 
(You know, when I suggested that the ROC keeps Hainan, everyone thought it was impossible. But I digress).

I wonder if Hainan could make any money off of tourism? Good beaches, a warm climate....
 

Hendryk

Banned
Faeelin said:
I wonder if Hainan could make any money off of tourism? Good beaches, a warm climate....
Tourism is already a major source of revenue for Hainan in OTL, and that wouldn't change (though the bulk of the tourists are Chinese mainlanders). But the island could also easily support the kind of light industry that has done wonders for Taiwan's economic development. One can also imagine a "Silicon Beach" in Hainan--a nexus of high-tech companies implanted to take advantage of low costs, the proximity of cheap labor pools on the mainland, and the pleasant climate. Phuket meets Seattle, if you will.

Another source of revenue in the 1960s and 1970s would likely be a sizeable US military presence. The island is beautifully located just across North Vietnam and near strategic sea lanes in the South China Sea.
 
I had thought it was smaller... but maybe I overestimated Taiwan's size because you always read about it but almost never about Hainan.

I wonder whether Hainan would help the US or even the French to win in Vietnam...
 
Hendryk said:
Tourism is already a major source of revenue for Hainan in OTL, and that wouldn't change (though the bulk of the tourists are Chinese mainlanders). But the island could also easily support the kind of light industry that has done wonders for Taiwan's economic development. One can also imagine a "Silicon Beach" in Hainan--a nexus of high-tech companies implanted to take advantage of low costs, the proximity of cheap labor pools on the mainland, and the pleasant climate. Phuket meets Seattle, if you will.

Another source of revenue in the 1960s and 1970s would likely be a sizeable US military presence. The island is beautifully located just across North Vietnam and near strategic sea lanes in the South China Sea.

I was actually thinking of tourism starting in the 60s and 70s, with GIs going there on leave and then returning after the war.
 

Hyperion

Banned
If Hainan stays Nationalist, and millions of people flee the mainland to the island, how much weaker would Communist China be, both for having less people, and not controlling Hainan Island?
 
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