Deleted member 67076
Is it possible for Timur and family to establish a state based in Egypt that lasts for at least 100 years?
Interesting. So its possible for a Timurid state (like say, the Mughals) to establish itself in Egypt.I think it is eminently possible for Timur to invade Egypt. His empire bordered the Levant at one point (1399/1400) and the Jalayirids ruling Baghdad did seek refuge with the Mamluks. So maybe an ill-considered attack by the Mamluks could have brought down Timurid retribution onto Egypt.
The results... oh, man. There is no doubt that Timur would have laid waste to Egypt as he did to Persia and Baghdad, destroying Cairo, Damascus, Alexandria and wrecking the basin irrigation systems that had been in place since the Pharaohs. The population-bearing capacity of Egypt would have been sharply reduced after that, which would at least make Egypt easier to govern.
I think it's pretty much given that the Mamluk class would have been exterminated in Egypt after Timur's invasion, so that would remove a massive contributor of instability that plagued previous Egyptian regimes - and more importantly, unlike Samarkand etc. there are no nomadic tribesmen in Egypt to disturb the peace. So I don't see why Timur's descendants couldn't rule for more than 100 years in Egypt in such a case. Still going to get annexed by the Ottomans under Selim I, though.
Well, fuck.Any non-family Timurid general entrusted with such an undertaking (and therefore close to Timur) would have undoubtedly been sent on his way with the requirement that he exterminate all resistance (probably in terms of number of skulls collected, like at Baghdad). So even that will result in destruction of Egypt (which I think was the point of your argument). In any case, I'm not sure there were any other capable generals in the empire besides Timur and his family, certainly none as famous as Subotai for the Mongols.
Although, theoretically, it doesn't seem that anything would stand in the way of an initial Timirid conquest (so why did they stop with just taking Damascus and Aleppo from the Mamluks OTL?), how long the Timirids can hold it is predicated on the stability that Timir leaves at his death and a suppression of the infighting and civil wars within his family after his death. The Timirid domains almost immediately contracted upon his death OTL. Egypt, being so far away from the central Timirid base of power would probably quickly wither on the vine.
Yeah Egypt would be easy to conquer but as soon as Timur kicks the bucket someone else would seize power and a new dynasty installed.
Is it possible for Timur and family to establish a state based in Egypt that lasts for at least 100 years?