Timur Invades Ming China, 1405

[mikegold]

What if Timur had lived through the plague that killed him in 1404 and followed through on his plan to invade the Ming Dynasty, allied to the remnants of the Yuan? Could Timur succeed in conquering China? What would the effects of his rule be? Would Islam become more prominent in China, perhaps even becoming the religion of its rulers in the long term?

 

[eliphas8]

I doubt it. If anything Hui working with the Timurids for an invasion would open them up to very large scale discrimination and ethnic cleansing. Timur was just the kind of monster (I say that because he is one of very few historical leaders for whom slaughter was an end in itself, which is actually pretty rare among people) to utterly devastate northern china for awhile, kick the bucket, and then leave the Ming to pick up the pieces of a devastated china. He's lived an extremely long life by the standards of Mongolian warlords and I doubt he'd be up for a complete reconquest of China. Maybe there's the off chance of him being able to help the Yuan out enough to create a kind of "Northern Yuan" dividing china up but even that seems problematic given his penchant for leaving a region utterly devastated and impoverished.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

I doubt it. If anything Hui working with the Timurids for an invasion would open them up to very large scale discrimination and ethnic cleansing. Timur was just the kind of monster (I say that because he is one of very few historical leaders for whom slaughter was an end in itself, which is actually pretty rare among people) to utterly devastate northern china for awhile, kick the bucket, and then leave the Ming to pick up the pieces of a devastated china. He's lived an extremely long life by the standards of Mongolian warlords and I doubt he'd be up for a complete reconquest of China. Maybe there's the off chance of him being able to help the Yuan out enough to create a kind of "Northern Yuan" dividing china up but even that seems problematic given his penchant for leaving a region utterly devastated and impoverished.

I agree on what you say about Timur, but disagree about China. The Hui and Mongols had higher positions and status in Yuan China than the Chinese, but the Ming Dynasty could treat them fairly well. Zheng He started his expeditions in 1405, and he was a Hui. The Mongols also had Mongols as auxiliaries or soldiers and tried to win them over. If the Ming didn't go forward with large-scale massacres of Mongols after the fall of the Yuan, I don't see why they would try to ethnically cleanse the Hui. Besides, while the Ming were not always nice, I can't think of any times they massacred entire peoples the way that Timur did.

 

[MonAngel]

IMO, Timur would be only successful of invading North China with the help of Mongols and Central Asians.
South China is out of question, because of sheer size and I don't think Timur can live such long time to complete conquest.

What impact it will bring. Timur will go back, after his dead Timurid Dynasty will be gone in short term.
China is devastated. There will be many wars between Mongols and ITTL Southern Ming and most likely after some time Chinese will eventually re-invade Northern China. How farther they will push is matter of debate. More interesting thing is Southern Ming might become more open to trade, so they might adopt more quickly Western weapons.
Timur invasion of China will bring some stability in Mongols because with the help of Timur, Olziitumur (Buyanshir) Khaan will not assassinated and dominate Mongolia. Northern China will be invaded and devastated and Southern Ming is weakened and not threat for a while. Some time after death of Timur, Mongol Khaans will be totally independent. Depending on luck and competence of leaders, they will be Masters of Mongolian Plain, Manchuria and Northern China till 1500. Culturally they might become more influenced by Timur and Persian culture. Mongols even might adopt Islam instead of Buddhism.
Then as I mentioned Mongols will be pushed back by Chinese. With luck they might keep Manchuria. If they keep Manchuria maybe this will affect rise of Qing Dynasty.

 

[eliphas8]

I agree on what you say about Timur, but disagree about China. The Hui and Mongols had higher positions and status in Yuan China than the Chinese, but the Ming Dynasty could treat them fairly well. Zheng He started his expeditions in 1405, and he was a Hui. The Mongols also had Mongols as auxiliaries or soldiers and tried to win them over. If the Ming didn't go forward with large-scale massacres of Mongols after the fall of the Yuan, I don't see why they would try to ethnically cleanse the Hui. Besides, while the Ming were not always nice, I can't think of any times they massacred entire peoples the way that Timur did.

I'm not saying it would get them wiped out. Just that the Hui by and large embracing invading foreigners who slaughter tens if not hundreds of thousands may mean their government positions dry up, their taxes are jacked up a lot, and they suffer at most the occasional pogrom for a few years.