As others opine I do not see a compelling path for Japan to emerge a victor without a German victory in Europe, and that seems ground oft-time trod. From my reading the USA might not have gone to war over the Philippines so even under FDR it is possible to have Japan going to war short of what we know occurred so long as there is no strong desire to have cause to become involved in European affairs piggybacked off Japanese aggression. But then you likely need a different Europe that puts both Britain and France in a stronger place to deter Japan widening the war. I assume one still has a belligerent Italy and Germany is a viable enemy to both France and Britain.
However, in altering the situation in Europe one might find a path for Japan to gain more ground, obviously avoiding a war with the USA who supplied the bulk of its oil, steel and many other critical trade items. In my wanderings over this ground I see a Weimar Germany and China pulling closer against Japan as well as holding to at least neutrality with the USSR also poised as a threat to Japan. Without the fall of France I think the consensus is Japan never invades Indochina or attacks the British possessions. The real prize is the DEI but if Japan is never embargoed does it truly require Dutch oil? I think Japan could pick off the French, but that gets them principally rice and rubber from Indochina, and I am not convinced it is worth the risks. The other sticking point is Hong Kong if the British allow supplies to move to China. But if Japan is reasonably confident they can buy from the USA, and assume the USA is not likely to use the Philippines to cut them off by sea, then they might feel compelled to take on either cutting the route through Indochina and/or Burma, that gets a war with Britain and France. Depending on how one apprises the outcome of this more limited war, with France and Britain not entirely free to strip Europe of the Mediterranean bare, that seems at least a road to a more victorious Japan in Asia. I am still toying with this so I admit the ideas are very rough indeed.