Timeline idea: the Netherlands in WWI and a closer Benelux

[pompejus]

So I have this idea for a potential timeline, I might write at some uncertain point in the future.

Roughly the outline is this:
Germany invades the Netherlands during WWI, just like they invaded Belgium and Luxemburg. As they invade the Netherlands to get a better route towards France, they mainly focus on the south east, but as the Dutch army is crap they get quickly defeated. The Dutch retreat behind the waterline, which stops the Germans (mainly because the Germans are focussing on France, not the quite irrelevant Dutch).

Germany still loses the first world war. The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg, through their collective experience decide to cooperate more. They form a customs union and an alliance (and more co"operations in other areas).

The second world war happens. Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxemburg are attacked again and after the war they start to co"operate even more closely and for an confederation.


So first of all I have some questions about this scenario. First the most important of all:

How realistic is this?

Besides that:
Why would Germany realistically attack the Netherlands?
What would be the effect of Germany attacking France through the Netherlands?
How effective would Dutch resistance be against the German armies?
Would the Dutch waterline actually hold?
Would Germany still lose?
How would a peace look after the war?
Would WWII (or some variant) still happen?
What would be the effect of a Benelux alliance during WWII?
What do you think about this idea?
Would I actualy write and finish this timeline if I start it?

 

[Alex Richards]

First part's simple. The original Schlieffen Plan called for Maastricht and Limburg to be occupied to help improve the logistics of the later stuff, but this was dropped. Simply keep it.

 

[pompejus]

First part's simple. The original Schlieffen Plan called for Maastricht and Limburg to be occupied to help improve the logistics of the later stuff, but this was dropped. Simply keep it.

Why exactly was it dropped?

 

[Alex Richards]

Why exactly was it dropped?

von Moltke thought it too risky due to the fact that it called for retreats in Alsace-Lorraine so as to be able to encircle to French Army and take Paris.

Now, if Moltke was overruled on reducing the attacking force quite so much (so say that he still makes reductions on the number of corps investing Antwerp to direct south and doesn't send the other troops East), perhaps by the Kaiser wanting a 'knock-out blow' against the French, that might be enough to get the first part through.

Of course, butterflys could ensue on the course of WWI, and certainly there may not even be a WWII.

 

[pompejus]

von Moltke thought it too risky due to the fact that it called for retreats in Alsace-Lorraine so as to be able to encircle to French Army and take Paris.

Now, if Moltke was overruled on reducing the attacking force quite so much (so say that he still makes reductions on the number of corps investing Antwerp to direct south and doesn't send the other troops East), perhaps by the Kaiser wanting a 'knock-out blow' against the French, that might be enough to get the first part through.

Would this be beneficial for the Germans? Would attacking through the Netherands mean they reach Paris? Or would it have roughly the same result as OTL: the Germans run out of steam, the French and British stop them and they dig themselves in in trenches for an extended war?

 

[Some Bloke]

My guards are all Seven feet tall while yours are barely six.
Yes but when we flood the dykes the water will be ten feet deep.

I can't remember the exact quote but it was something like that.

 

[merlin]

Trouble is, I don't see how your 'end' result is much different from OTL!?

Surely, with a similar WW1 experience, it's more plausible to think that a Customs Union, leading to more co-operation (economic, political and military) and perhaps intergration e.g. Benelux.
As i understand it the language make-up of Benelux is a similar % to that of Switzerland.

It would be interesting to seee what the effects could be to WW2 with a viable Benelux from say the early to mid-thirties!

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

Why would Germany realistically attack the Netherlands?

First of all; cool ideas!
Secondly - perhaps Germany would attack France through the Netherlands instead of through Belgium (thus an alternative Schlieffenplan) because Belgium had British troops guarding Belgium's neutrality and independence. The Netherlands could be rather weak due to internal instability. Some regionalities sought for greater autonmy or independence and supported the Germans when they invaded from the east to south, through Gelderland, Limburg and North Brabant.

 

[Alternate History]

First of all; cool ideas!
Secondly - perhaps Germany would attack France through the Netherlands instead of through Belgium (thus an alternative Schlieffenplan) because Belgium had British troops guarding Belgium's neutrality and independence. The Netherlands could be rather weak due to internal instability. Some regionalities sought for greater autonmy or independence and supported the Germans when they invaded from the east to south, through Gelderland, Limburg and North Brabant.

Uh... through the Netherlands instead of through Belgium? You do realise that Netherlands is not a neighbor of France?

 

[pompejus]

Uh... through the Netherlands instead of through Belgium? You do realise that Netherlands is not a neighbor of France?

Actualy the Netherlands is a neighbour of France. In the Carribean they share a border on the island St Maarten/st Martin. Besides that Surnam borders French Guyana. Sure, it is not the easiest way for the Germans to invade France through the carribean, but still.

 

[Alex Richards]

Would this be beneficial for the Germans? Would attacking through the Netherands mean they reach Paris? Or would it have roughly the same result as OTL: the Germans run out of steam, the French and British stop them and they dig themselves in in trenches for an extended war?

I think it depends on how well the French are doing in Alsace-Lorraine. If they push too far, we might see von Molkte send some more troops over there after the Dutch invasion in what would be seen later as an overreaction, thus getting to approximately the OTL situation.

But really any PoD in 1906 (when the plan was altered) is likely to mean WWI is completely different anyway.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

Uh... through the Netherlands instead of through Belgium? You do realise that Netherlands is not a neighbor of France?

Oh God... How stupid can I be?!

Well - then an invasion like this... (see attached map below) ...maybe? (the blue arrows are Allied forces' attacks or invasions, the black ones are the Central Powers' attacks or invasions).

Besides, the Netherlands does border France! Guess why! Over sea, of course - if the Germans invade the Netherlands and reach the coast, they can use the Dutch ships to travel to Normandy's coast and invade from there. That would be quite a surprise for the Fench, wouldn't it?

In addition, think of an alternate world at the eve of the First World War. Perhaps a Federation of the Low Countries (see the thread linked in my signature) exists... What then?

What if Germany does not possess Alsace-Lorraine, but these two were independent 'buffer' countries?

What if France as well as Germany would still be completely balkanised (see the Alternate France thread in my signature)?

Possibly, you could have a world war between on one side the northern German states, Muscovy, Moravia, Slovakia, the Kingdom of France (northern France), Portugal, Baltic states and Nordic countries allied, and on the other side an alliance of southern German states, Austria, Tyrol, Bohemia, Occitania, Italian states and Spanish states. In this war, the Netherlands perhaps would split up; southern states favouring the second side I mentioned and Holland and Frisia etc. joining the northern alliance.

 

[Danth]

That map is wrong
And a naval invasion is out of the question
The kriegsmarine bs the french and royal navy?

 

[wietze]

seelion squared?

 

[pompejus]

Yeah, no. I doubt it would be a good idea for the Germans to attack through the Netherlands and then launch an amphibic attack on France. If Germany is going to attack France through the Netherlands they will go through Belgium too, which actualy was part of my original inquiry. So lets focus on that.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

Yeah, no. I doubt it would be a good idea for the Germans to attack through the Netherlands and then launch an amphibic attack on France. If Germany is going to attack France through the Netherlands they will go through Belgium too, which actualy was part of my original inquiry. So lets focus on that.

What if the arms race - which was one of the causes of the First World War, militarism - had been more radical, and Germany had developed very modern warships, next to their famous U-Boats?
And, what if tanks had been invetented earlier? Perhaps that would make an amphibic attack possible? (amphibic tank-boats? )

 

[pompejus]

What if the arms race - which was one of the causes of the First World War, militarism - had been more radical, and Germany had developed very modern warships, next to their famous U-Boats?
And, what if tanks had been invetented earlier? Perhaps that would make an amphibic attack possible? (amphibic tank-boats? )

In that case it would still be easier to go through Belgium.

 

[Parma]

So I have this idea for a potential timeline, I might write at some uncertain point in the future.

Roughly the outline is this:
Germany invades the Netherlands during WWI, just like they invaded Belgium and Luxemburg. As they invade the Netherlands to get a better route towards France, they mainly focus on the south east, but as the Dutch army is crap they get quickly defeated. The Dutch retreat behind the waterline, which stops the Germans (mainly because the Germans are focussing on France, not the quite irrelevant Dutch).

Germany still loses the first world war. The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg, through their collective experience decide to cooperate more. They form a customs union and an alliance (and more co"operations in other areas).

The second world war happens. Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxemburg are attacked again and after the war they start to co"operate even more closely and for an confederation.


So first of all I have some questions about this scenario. First the most important of all:

How realistic is this?

Besides that:
Why would Germany realistically attack the Netherlands?
What would be the effect of Germany attacking France through the Netherlands?
How effective would Dutch resistance be against the German armies?
Would the Dutch waterline actually hold?
Would Germany still lose?
How would a peace look after the war?
Would WWII (or some variant) still happen?
What would be the effect of a Benelux alliance during WWII?
What do you think about this idea?
Would I actualy write and finish this timeline if I start it?

First:
The Dutch army was NOT crap for 1914 standards. This is a misconception due to the deplorable state is was in 1940!!
The Dutch army in 1914 was an up to date conscript army with a more than competent militair and political leaders. Which was different 36 years later. It had several short commings which were recognized by the Dutch commanders, which were the small number of modern heavy artilery and the whole size of the field army.
The field army was dressed in a modern field grey uniform (French soldiers sky blue coats and red trousers). Relative modern hand weapons and field artilery.
Dutch militair comanders were very well trained with several scenario's of invasions by Germans, French or British.
Military intelegence, although for modern standards, amaturistic, very competent, they knew waht was comming.
Example: the Dutch Army was mobilised and fielded as one of the first at that time.
When invaded by Germany, as it was in early draft plans, the Dutch Army would first liase with the Belgians, how ever they reject such propoasls years befor. Then will have delay actions so there is time to establish a permanent line of defence, and have a fighting retreat to this lines. Possible that there will be a joint effort to keep antwerp ope.
Intersting will this, since it might result in a retreat of the Belgian army to the North instead of the South, which means no Ieper battles, most likely a front in Franche.

Why would Germany realistically attack the Netherlands?
German invesion is likely, German plans changed several times and in the end Moltke desided not to invade the Netherlands.
The argument moslty pointed not to invade the Netherlands was to create a neutral port for Germany to import resorches it needed for the war. This is only valid in the first months of the war. The Britisch blockade all trafic on the North Seas, severly disupted trade of the Netherlands, and thus export by the Netherlands to Germany.
Dutch army would retreat behind the large rivers and waterlines. Perfect defensive position but also an imposible position to start a counter offensive. Thus the North flank of the German army would not, for a moment, under threat.

What would be the effect of Germany attacking France through the Netherlands?
Effect on the August/Septempebr war is difficult to forcast. More troops need to be kept behind to secure the Belgium/Dutch forces. Might be not a troop transfer to the East?
Depending how the West front develop, let asume some sort of ''race to the sea'' ocurs ending in a entrenced front as we know it, only this time more South adn with a complete ocupied Belgium.
Belgian army withdraw North in the Netherlands.

How effective would Dutch resistance be against the German armies?
I think suprisingly effective. It is a relative uptodat conscript army, with recieved in the decade before enough funding and political support. And it is commanded by competent comanders of which many of them had some sort of (colonial) war experience.

 

[TheseusDeuteros]

In that case it would still be easier to go through Belgium.

True... I admit that my idea wasn't that clever.
But what if their navy is stronger than Britain's, but the land armies are each other's equals?

 

[Geordie]

Actualy the Netherlands is a neighbour of France. In the Carribean they share a border on the island St Maarten/st Martin. Besides that Surnam borders French Guyana. Sure, it is not the easiest way for the Germans to invade France through the Caribbean, but still.

I have just found a new sig.

Regarding the OP, it's difficult to judge the effects long term. The differences in a WWI involving the Netherlands may be enough to cause the sufficient butterflies to cancel WWII.

As far as WWI itself goes, if the Dutch retreat to, and hold, the waterlines, then the Germans must cover them. As Parma states, once the stalemate occurs, it'll be very difficult for either force to cross the rivers and canals in order to move forward. On the other hand, any German soldier on this front isn't fighting the Franco/Belgian/British forces, nor is he in the East.

How would the German economy be altered? I've been led to believe that German trade through the Netherlands was useful for mitigating some aspects of the RN blockade. If Dutch ports are also closed, would this lead to earlier/more severe economic problems within Germany?