If we only took the good, and hope the bad was cancelled out?Just imagine the horrors that will result from THAT union!
The horror is the amount of research we'll end up doing before anything happens...
TIMELINE CONTEST: Sign-up & Planning Thread
- Thread starter Glen
- Start date
The horror is the amount of research we'll end up doing before anything happens...
I'd say a map can be used in a non-border divergent timeline, just to show geographical locations. I've wanted to try out a method for making war-maps lately...
Glen
Moderator
Has anyone taken on BlackMage as a partner yet?
Anyone else want to throw their hats in the ring?
Remember, you can declare anytime before the actual deadline for submission, but the earlier you commit, the more time you'll have to work out your timelines.
Are there any conditions on the sorts of timelines that can be entered? I know some people object to "butterfly heavy" timelines, other people object to timelines that include people from OTL born after the POD, many people dislike ASBish elements (e.g. someone discovers how to harness psi-powers) etc.
Glen
Moderator
That's a very good question.
I feel that given this is a contest comparing timelines with the same POD, then it should be at least "butterfly moderate" ie most of the butterflies should typically occur when the POD itself has started changing things in that area.
The big issue of course is how to hand people conceived (not born necessarily) after the POD. Given the short timespan of the timelines, (59 years), I think a middle ground would be reasonable. Most of the people active in at least the first 3/4 of the timeline will have been conceived before the POD, so try and mine OTL figures. For the last twenty years, probably more 'Alternate Siblings' and people completely new could be incorporated into the timeline.
However, I'd like to hear other opinions on this. Another alternative is to simply let people choose their butterfly level of preference for the timeline, with perhaps some stipulation that early on in the timeline, they should at least have some indirect connection to the POD.
I don't like that. I mean the OTL person has just as much of chance of being born as any alternate sibling given the same parents. (Plus most Baby Bommers are just coming into power into the 90s, which is the late according to the rules.) People born in the 50s to late 60s should be kept and people shouldn't be penalised if they want to go even further than that...
Glen
Moderator
Actually, let's look at that. If we assume that we rerun two people mating at exactly the same time, we can at least say that the ovum would be the same. So in this case only the variation in the sperm counts.
Let's make a huge simplification and say there is no recombination (and this is not the true case). That means the chance of a sperm cell with the same chromosomes as the OTL person reaching the ovum is the same as the chance of a coin toss coming up heads 23 times in a row. That's 1 in 8,388,608. Now, the OTL person has the same chance as any one other sibling being born, but as you can see, the chance of the same genes (absent twinning) being possessed by the same siblings is huge. IF the child were conceived in a different month, then you have to take into account the variation possible in the mother's combination of chromosomes. That would then be a chance of heads coming up every time 43 times in a row. I'm not only going to type that big number.
Think about it, Oth. This is the same reason why you don't see identical siblings being born into families (again absent twinning).
I think we should just let people do whatever the heck they want. It can easily be sorted out by the polls, after all - in a poll for 'Most Realistic', a TL that features an alien invasion will probably not fare well.
I think I have shown through my simple calculation why even rerunning the same conception yields very low likelihood of the same genetic combination occuring.
However, I too am inclined to let people go their own way on this.
Thande
Donor
Even if you're a Butterfly Nazi, surely a man is shaped by his experiences as well as his birth. The only thing I could see making a big difference necessarily is if he had a disease or was born female (or vice-versa for historical women).
There's probably about a greater than 50% chance that if they are born the same gender, they'll end up with the same name to the person who was born in OTL.
But there are cases of identical siblings exsisting, their only difference being age and expirence but being the exact same genetically! This is extremely against the chances but the only way I'm going to change the genetics of the birth is by change in the parentage.
Glen
Moderator
Absolutely. Behavioral traits are probably only about 50% hereditable on average. But think about how many siblings even fairly close in birth order grow up similar under similar conditions of being raised.
I disagree. See above. However, there are families with very strong traditions of doing certain things, and for them it wouldn't make a big difference (Kennedy family, for example).
You have a reference on that?
That is fine. Just be up front that it is a very parallel timeline.
Glen
Moderator
For people with the same two parents and same birth order I think you are absolutely right. But of course, if my brother had been named Glen and born when I was, I assure you he wouldn't have been me by a long stretch. Wouldn't have been the same him, either, of course.
Does it matter if they are dizygotic twins who happen to be identical? It has the same occurance rate as identical siblings. (They are much easier to track you see.. and are better documented.)