Timeline: Chinese Democracy, Soviet Union Goes "Dark"

June 4, 1989: the 27th and 28th Armies of the People's Liberation Army move in to break up the Tiananmen Square protests by force. The 38th Army, stationed in Beijing, mutinies and sides with the demonstrators. Chinese and international television broadcast the events in Beijing across the country and the world. The capital is overtaken in the revolts, as the public and much of the police force sides against the Armies brought in from out-of-province.

Violent confrontations between police and student demonstators in other Chinese cities occur. Shanghai and Nanjing see particularly strong resistance in solidarity with those in Beijing. Peaceful solidarity demonstrations take place in Hong Kong, Macau, Taipei, across Taiwan, and in Singapore, as well as Chinatowns the world over. The Kuomintang government in Taiwan declares solidarity with the "freedom fighters for democracy" around 10:00 PM, when images of a burned-out tank are broadcast across the world.

Violence continues throughout the night in several cities across China, with the 38th Army having seized the Forbidden City, and then occupying it with several hundred demonstrators. Deaths in Beijing are estimated at about 3200 by Red Cross officials by the next morning.

Over the next several days, every major city in China proper sees revolutionary activity. In some cities, like Xi'an and Shanghai (and previously Beijing), large numbers of the police forces and local military forces defect to the other side, resulting in a decree on June 7 that all urban military forces are to be disarmed, forcefully if necessary. Nationwide martial law is also declared. Military forces must be brought into the cities from more rural sectors of the country.

Organizations like the Democratic Reformists of the People's Republic, the Movement for Democracy in China, and Han Chinese Patriots for Unity and Democracy arise in the weeks to come, staging peaceful demonstrations that tend to turn violent, violent attacks on police stations, the manufacture of illegal weapons, and the vandalism and occupation of various state buildings and enterprises. On June 11, the Chinese government decrees the temporary of closure of all universities, which have both been the targets of vandalism and destruction, and the centres of revolutionary activity.

Tibetan nationalist activity increases drastically in Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, particularly after many of the military divisions are pulled out of these remote areas to fight in the cities of the East. The skeleton forces remaining find it difficult to hold onto the areas under their jurisdicgtion, and only maintain control of areas they deem important: Aksai Chin (not to be lost to Indian control), Lhasa, Shigatse, Ürümqi, Hohhot, Battou, and Lop Nur. Gyantse, for one, is lost to the Tibetans.

The Tibetans are being armed with weapons smuggled in from India - provided by either the sympathetic (but none-too-forgiving) Indian government or by the Tibetan diaspora and its sympathizers. A somewhat more nationalistic communist regime in Mongolia provides some logistical support to Mongol nationalists, whereas Afghan mujahideen have been slipping into Xinjiang and bringing weapons with them. The Soviet Union and China haven't been able to stop much of this flow of weapons and people from going on. In China proper, some guns provided by the Chinese diaspora and the Vietnamese government have managed to get onto the mainland from Hong Kong, Macau, Hainan, and from Arunachal Pradesh, where many overseas Chinese have set up shop temporarily - along with Taiwanese intelligence, presently tolerated by the Indian government.

Ah, ctrap, must go. Will edit with this more.
 
Some Quick Problems....

There are few problems with the possibility of an Army mutiny by the 27th and 28th Armies in Beijing:

-First, the members of the 27th and 28th Armies were from the interior and often poorer regions of the country, wherein the PLA was considered the only means of leaving a life of poverty. The students at Beijing Univeristy were seen as "liberal radicals". In American terms, it would be like U.S. Army forces from Nebraska or South Dakota, finding sympathy with anti-war protesters at U.C. Berkeley...

-Second, the Kuomingtang (KMT) government in Taipei, had been infamous for its crackdown on demonstrators, often calling them "communist sympathizers". Also, the British in Hong Kong didn't allow parliamentary elections until 1996. As such, "democratic forces" in China didn't have a strong support for the protests.

-Third, Deng Xiaoping was considered by the Chinese Politburo as a reformer, especially after suffering arrest by the "Gang of Four" in 1976, and imprisonment until 1982, and nearly losing his son to torture in the Cultural Revolution. In Deng Xiaoping's mind there is not much room for change. If he gives into the "rebels" he risks being called a "counter-revolutionary" by the more conservative members of the Chinese Politburo.

-Fourth, with the Indian openly aiding the Tibetan resistance, the very real danger is for a nuclear war, which India knows that it can't win. China has more troops and certainly more nuclear weapons, to use in the region. To make matters worse, China can easily call in its ally, Pakistan, to send troops into Kashmir. China can also back Maoist guerillas in Nepal, another border state with India....
 
Well, I realize that the 27th and the 28th were rurally based and anti-demonstrator. That's why it's the Beijing-stationed 38th that mutinies. :p OTL, the 38th were disarmed. The POD would be, perhaps, the argument that the disarmament of the 38th would be an insult by its commander or what-have-you, and the superiors buying it. A bit flimsy, I realize, but not completely absurd in a country still fairly concerned about honour and saving face.

For Taiwan, OTL, there were some peaceful demonstrations which the Taiwanese government allowed during the Tiananmen protests. Taiwan wanted to express support for the democracy movement. These demonstrations were different from other demonstrations has seen, like socialist ones and stuff, because they were firmly anticommunist - something the Kuomintang was rather pleased with. Hong Kong also saw solidarity protests OTL. Outside of China, it may have been less for democracy as it was strong dislike of Communist excess.

As for Deng, I'm aware. I haven't gotten that far. It's gonna take a little while, I imagine for actual Chinese democracy to emerge. Mid-1990s, at least.

Your point about the Indian government is very strong. I will edit that accordingly, though I still imagine there would be a trickle of support, even if it's only not disturbing Tibetans crossing the border. They should officially declare support for the Chinese, and they'll quickly stamp out the border crossings in Arunachal Pradesh as soon as they become aware of it.

Finally, I should get some more written about Korea.
 

ninebucks

Banned
Does Ulaanbaatur actually have any serious intentions of gaining control of Inner Mongolia? They wouldn't have a chance if China decided to react against them.

I like the idea of this one, but I have some plausibility concerns that hopefully you will alleviate in your next edit. :)
 
Quick Reactions....

Well, I realize that the 27th and the 28th were rurally based and anti-demonstrator. That's why it's the Beijing-stationed 38th that mutinies. :p OTL, the 38th were disarmed. The POD would be, perhaps, the argument that the disarmament of the 38th would be an insult by its commander or what-have-you, and the superiors buying it. A bit flimsy, I realize, but not completely absurd in a country still fairly concerned about honour and saving face.

For Taiwan, OTL, there were some peaceful demonstrations which the Taiwanese government allowed during the Tiananmen protests. Taiwan wanted to express support for the democracy movement. These demonstrations were different from other demonstrations has seen, like socialist ones and stuff, because they were firmly anticommunist - something the Kuomintang was rather pleased with. Hong Kong also saw solidarity protests OTL. Outside of China, it may have been less for democracy as it was strong dislike of Communist excess.

As for Deng, I'm aware. I haven't gotten that far. It's gonna take a little while, I imagine for actual Chinese democracy to emerge. Mid-1990s, at least.

Your point about the Indian government is very strong. I will edit that accordingly, though I still imagine there would be a trickle of support, even if it's only not disturbing Tibetans crossing the border. They should officially declare support for the Chinese, and they'll quickly stamp out the border crossings in Arunachal Pradesh as soon as they become aware of it.

Finally, I should get some more written about Korea.

-Odds are that the 38th Army would have been branded as "counter-revolutionary traitors". Beijing Mayor Chen Xitong called for the ouster of Party Secretary Zhao Ziyang after it was suspected that he was sympathetic to the protestors. Hard liners Li Peng and Yang Shangkun would have most certainly seized control of the Chinese Politburo, demanding a hardline from Deng Xiaoping. Deng Xiaoping would have been purged as being "too sympathetic" to the "counter-revolutionary forces"....

-Second, unfortunately China could easily point to the fact that Taiwan had been technically under martial law since 1976, which was continued until 1991 President Lee Teng-hui. Under these circumstances, the Chinese government would claim any protest by the Kuomingtang government as being hypocritical in nature. To make matters worse, consider that President H.W. Bush had expressed his support for the Chinese government at the time, aloong with Premier Mikhail Gorbachev....

-Third, as stated earlier, hard liners Li Peng and Yang Shangkun would have most certainly seized control of the Chinese Politburo, demanding a hardline from Deng Xiaoping if it was suspected of being "too sympathetic". Remember that Deng Xiaoping was considered a reformer, and had only been out of jail 7 years prior...

-Fourth, during the period of 1989-1992, the PLA deployed the 6th Infantry Division into Tibet precisely because of the fears of Tibetan nationalism. In 1984, the Chinese sent troops into the Sumdorong Cha Valley, sparking an international crisis. In 1986, the Chinese government laid claim to the Arunachal Pradesh province, claiming control of 11 of the 15 districts. With the situation at hand, a border conflict war could easily go nuclear....
 
-Second, unfortunately China could easily point to the fact that Taiwan had been technically under martial law since 1976

Actually, this point has a problem. The "Temporary Provisions in Effect During the Period of Communist Rebellion" were effect from 1949, when the KMT goverment fled to Taiwan, to 1987 when they were abolished by Jiang Jingguo (Chiang Ching-kuo) - Jiang Jieshi (Chiang Kai-shek)'s son. In addition, opposition political parties were able to form. So from 1987-1989, it wouldn't be hypocritical.
 
Since you first raised the issue, I think that the Indian government, which is sympathetic to the Tibetan national cause, would not be so stupid as to allow anything completely overt from occurring. They would declare solidarity with China, and they would make efforts to stop Tibetans from crossing the Himalayas into Tibet. However, these would be half-hearted at best. Beijing could criticize New Delhi for not doing more, but New Delhi - if it isn't really helping the Tibetans - could just shrug and deny things. At least half of the weapons in Tibet would have originated from within Tibet or other parts of China, as police defected and crime shot up a tad.

In comparison, crossings between Arunachal Pradesh and Yunnan are dangerous. This would occur, but, as soon as the issue came to light, India would understand that it would need to cut something as crucial as that down, and quickly, and they would react with a strong military force to secure the border there.

On the issue of Deng being sympathetic: Deng isn't sympathetic, not in the least. He ordered the crackdown on the protestors OTL, and he did the same in this timeline. He is vehemently anti-rebel, which is why martial law is declared, and which is why China mobilizes strongly against this threat. The hardliners may accuse his leadership as being weak, but I find that somewhat unlikely. They certainly can't accuse him of sympathy, because he is doing all in his power against it.

The 38th Army certainly would be declared counterrevolutionary rebels! The 38th Army is fucked after they side with democracy! However, garrisoned in the Forbidden City, with foreign journalists embedded, the Chinese government will have a major elephant in the living room. I haven't quite figured out the resolution of it yet - ideas would be nice! - but the Chinese aren't gonna hit the Forbidden City with artillery, and they aren't to starve everyone with international press inside and embassy officials around Beijing. (Not right away, at least.)

Dan's points about Taiwan are valid.

The Tibetan fighters are gonna have a hard time in Tibet. However, at least some forces would be recalled to help with the growing violence in China proper - as I mentioned, a skeleton force. This reduced military presence is left to defend Tibet, and they can't hold onto Gyantse (a particularly nationalistic spot), but they keep the most important sites under their control, like Lhasa and Shigatse. It's not like the Tibetans are having an easy time of it.

Neither are the Mongols, and the Uighurs and other Turkic peoples are fucked in Xinjiang. A few Afghan mujahideen are present to help them, but this is a small number. That isn't going to stop from making a nuisance of themselves by blowing things up and attacking police stations, however.

For Ninebucks: well, in the late 1980s, as the communist-free world paradigm was falling apart, people were tending towards more nationalistic groupings, based on the idea of shared cultural tendencies. Like, Clash of Civilizations stuff. The Mongolian government would be no different. There was a greater degree of freedom in Mongolia at the time, which was basically an autonomous Soviet socialist republic, and was enjoying perestroika and glasnost about as much as any Soviet citizen. If a situation arose in which Mongols were fighting for their freedom, I think that Mongolia would offer some small support.

HOWEVER, I'm not sure if Mongolia would offer support so early in the game. This timeline basically only covers June, July, and August 1989. I think Mongolia wouldn't offer even the most token support till 1990 at the earliest. This issue will be addressed in the next edit.

Thoughts?
 
Well let's see. Since the KMT ideology is all about retaking the Mainland, this could probably have some play into the whole thing. Remember you said that the ROC declared solidarity with the students. While it might not seem literal for the rest of us, maybe with American support as Jiang Jieshi originally intended (so long as US immediately breaks ties with PRC and switches it to ROC in this ATL instead of just plain condemning it as it OTL)? Also keep in mind that since the Sino-Soviet split the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact would most likely not help a Maoist state, so it would be the PLA vs. US + ROC military.
 

ninebucks

Banned
For Ninebucks: well, in the late 1980s, as the communist-free world paradigm was falling apart, people were tending towards more nationalistic groupings, based on the idea of shared cultural tendencies. Like, Clash of Civilizations stuff. The Mongolian government would be no different. There was a greater degree of freedom in Mongolia at the time, which was basically an autonomous Soviet socialist republic, and was enjoying perestroika and glasnost about as much as any Soviet citizen. If a situation arose in which Mongols were fighting for their freedom, I think that Mongolia would offer some small support.

HOWEVER, I'm not sure if Mongolia would offer support so early in the game. This timeline basically only covers June, July, and August 1989. I think Mongolia wouldn't offer even the most token support till 1990 at the earliest. This issue will be addressed in the next edit.

That Clash of Civilisations stuff is coffee table nonsense. The fall of communism had very little effect in Mongolia, especially amongst the odd 80% of Mongolians who still live a nomadic or semi-nomadic lifestyle. These Mongolians are generally quite apathetic towards politics and in all likelihood are not going to make any sacrifices for any kind of Mongol Nationalism.

And indeed, '89 is a bit too early, Mongolia's democratic constitution didn't get ratified until '92. Indeed, it seems that a consensus is growing in this thread that no nation is going to take the risk of interfering in China, not even covertly - no matter how bad Beijing's situation looks.
 
Some Items To Consider....

-With the actual "38th Army Mutiny", the Soviets under Mikhail Gorbachev are going to face a major purge, in an effort to prevent such an incident occuring in the Soviet sphere. To make maaters worse, he will most likely launch a much more violent crackdown on 1991 political protest in the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia).

-Second, the foreign press will certainly be allowed to leave, but not without their cameras and/or video equipment. Foreign press coverage will severely monitored soon afterwards, with "state-handlers" appointed to all media officials , similar to North Korea or Iraq. Those foreign journalists who disobey or attempt to break press restrictions may find themselves placed under house arrest or subject to interrogation as "revealing state secrets"....
 
I'm going to try and see what I can do to resurrect this thread...

I would imagine that the leadership, after safely escaping from Beijing, would try to clamp down on the cities that have been essentially taken over by the rebels. So Beijing, Xi'an, Shanghai, etc. would likely be surrounded and cut off from the rest of the country, and checkpoints would be set up to basically keep urbanites from leaving their cities, and in general preventing any human movement that isn't controlled by the state.

Since the eyes of the world are on Beijing, the CCP is probably going to stay away and focus on clamping down elsewhere. They might even attempt to wait out the rebels, hoping that factional disputes will break out amongst the soldiers-students-workers, and the rebels will start to come apart from the inside.
 
I really don't see how the ChiComs calling the Taiwanese hypocritical is going to matter in the grand scheme of this scenario.

People complained about the American rebels accepting the help of absolutist France and Spain to fight more-democratic Britain, but unless this was the real reason behind Benedict Arnold's attempted treason (he justified it by complaining about France, but IIRC the main reason was money and him feeling slighted by the Patriot leadership), it didn't have any real effect.

And are the Chinese willing to threaten nuclear war over Indian aid to Tibetan resistance fighters, especially given the troubles at home? It seems more realistic that they'd retaliate by having the Pakistanis make trouble in Kashmir or upping the funding into Indian Maoists (Naxalites).
 
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