1956: May You Live in Interesting Times (Part One)
January: Various contenders are out of the gate for their parties' nomination for President. As expected, President Driscoll announces he will run for a full term. While he is broadly popular in the party and the country, scattered opposition develops. Die-hard McCarthyites, tacitly encouraged by NH Senator Styles Bridges, launch a write-in campaign for the Wisconsin Senator in the NH primary. Some Southern state parties look sympathetically on the Wisconsin Senator as well, because he is known more for red-hot anti-Communism than for any devotion to civil rights. But this opinion is not unanimous in the South. States where the GOP has had a sizeable showing since the Civil War (Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia especially) are considered supportive of civil rights.
In addition, some of the late President Taft's supporters prevail upon Senator John Bricker of Ohio to stand as a favorite son candidate from his own state "to defend the Taft legacy." He may also receive write in support in New Hampshire. The newly launched conservative magazine National Review suggests that true conservatives should support Bricker.
On the Democratic side, Adlai Stevenson, the near victor of 1952, is running again. But he has competition. Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee, a relatively liberal Southerner and 1952 candidate, is also running again. He is banking on a strong showing in NH to launch him nationally. In addition, in a surprise move, Senator Hubert Humphrey, Minnesota's youthful liberal crusader for civil rights, decides to run to put "human rights" at the center of his party's platform. He is worried that the GOP under Driscoll will regain the status as the pro-civil rights party that they had before FDR and Truman. On the other extreme of the Democratic Party, Senator Richard Russell, the most respectable segregationist in the Senate, allows his name to be put forward as the candidate of the South, and is expected to dominate every southern state outside of Tennessee and perhaps Texas and Florida. He will speak for "traditional" (i.e., states rights) Democrats. Finally, New York City Mayor Robert Wagner, a potential Senate candidate in New York State, decides to run as the candidate of the urban north. He is backed by powerful Tammany Hall boss Carmine DeSapio.
February: In a shocking development, presumed Democratic front-runner Adlai Stevenson comes in third in the New Hampshire primary. He had not campaigned as energetically as Kefauver (who won the primary) or Humphrey, who came in second. Stevenson, backed by most of the party establishment, staggers out of New Hampshire in bad shape. Can he hang on and win Florida?
President Driscoll, the only candidate on the ballot, wins the GOP primary for President easily. But the McCarthy write-in nets about 15% of the vote. The Bricker write-in nets 20%. President Driscoll is not seriously damaged by the result, but the Bricker supporters in particular are encouraged enough to continue their efforts.
March: As expected, Minnesota Senator Humphrey easily wins his home state primary. He does not campaign in Florida however due to limited resources. Florida becomes a three-way battle between Stevenson, Kefauver, and, surprisingly, Richard Russell, who had not planned to compete in primaries but is encouraged by Stevenson's weak showing. Crucially, he is endorsed by Florida's conservative Democratic Senator George Smathers. And Russell wins with a plurality. Stevenson, fighting to save his campaign, manages to come in second. This time, Kefauver's campaign is dealt a serious blow as he comes in third.
Humphrey also wins neighboring Wisconsin with a plurality over Stevenson, leaving Kefauver far behind.
President Driscoll wins all the primaries being contested, including, significantly, McCarthy's Wisconsin. This puts an end to McCarthy's hopes of even being a significant factor at the convention. But again Bricker picks up a respectable write in vote (15%) and continues onward. He also wins 25% in Minnesota. Bricker begins to gain delegates from Southern states where most delegates are selected by convention ... even though Bricker himself supports civil rights. It is thought by some Southern Republicans, perhaps wishfully, that he may be less outspoken than Driscoll and would have more respect for "States' Rights."
April: This news stuns America: despondent over his Senate censure, and the collapse of any hope for redemption in the primaries, Senator Joseph McCarthy, already seriously ill from liver damage caused by rampant alcoholism, commits suicide and is dead at age 47. He had few followers left, but the suicide of a once leading Republican rocks Washington and causes more support to flow to Senator Bricker ... who, ironically, is a much different man than McCarthy. The newly formed John Birch Society denounces President Driscoll as a "traitor and a murderer."
But with the exception of some Southern delegations, Driscoll continues to dominate most states that hold primaries and conventions. One exception is Arizona, where failed Senate candidate Barry Goldwater, since elected Mayor of Phoenix, endorses Bricker and gets about 1/2 of the state party delegates to back him.
As for the Democrats, Stevenson finally wins some primaries and state conventions: his broad appeal among most Democrats gives him victories in most of industrial midwest as well as Texas, where he was backed by Lyndon Johnson. However, Mayor Wagner wins most of New York's delegates as well as New Jersey's, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Stevenson does succeed in beating Wagner and Humphrey in Pennsylvania, although he ran a dismal third in Philadelphia. The small handful of Democrats from Vermont and Maine go for Humphrey. The Kefauver campaign, squeezed out any regional advantage (from Russell) or ideological advantage (from Humphrey) or establishment advantage (from Stevenson) collapses.
May: The climactic primaries arrive. Driscoll wins California as expected, but here Bricker wins 30% of the vote despite campaigning not at all. Bricker holds Ohio where Driscoll demurred from campaigning. In addition, Bricker has significant delegate showings in Indiana, Illinois, Arizona, and much of the South.
Stevenson, with better organization support, wins California and Ohio over Humphrey. Humphrey had very little money or organization. In spite of this, he has won majority support from several mid-size and small states outside the South (he wins most of the farm belt for example). Wagner has most of New York and New England. Russell has most of the South outside of Texas. The Democratic convention has the potential to be the most contentious since 1924.
Stay tuned for the Conventions ...