In Timeline 191, Theodore Roosevelt loses his bid for a third term in 1920. Let's say he's able, however, to pull the election off and beat Upton Sinclair. What does TR's third term look like? Would he successfully be able to keep the limitations on the Confederacy in place? Would he be willing to forgive the reparation payments the Confederacy had to pay?
Timeline 191: TR's Third Ter
- Thread starter m0585
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He would have to play the card of the american bismarck(heck even work OTL & ITTL pretty well too) and negotiated some 'consesion' with the socialist in economical and social programs exchange a 'white check'(i doubt TL-191 would like to use french words that much) in Foreing affairs, specially that one involving the confederacy, of course he will not be nice with the Dixies and make sure they 'pay' in every sense of the world, if that radicalize the snake followers or make thing more diverse is up to you, Featherston would be gladly having a 'nemesis' even if that kick the bucket later on.
Depending what later unfold, people would say he won the war but loss the peace, won both or that even he would have not be able to foresaw a monster like Featherston.
I think Roosevelt would likely die into his third term though. His successor would usher in a Roaring Twenties-esque era, if the Depression occurs on track then you'd see the Socialists take the White House in a landslide. It's possible that FDR would run as a Socialist (assuming he doesn't contract polio here) and have Hosea Blackford as his running mate. Or it could Blackford himself elected. Who knows? 
bguy
Donor
Domestically, I think Nivek is correct. Roosevelt will probably reach some sort of understanding with the Socialists where he helps enact some of their domestic priorities in exchange for greater defense spending and a free hand on foreign policy. Thus the old age pensions and unemployment insurance bills that were successfully fillibustered by the Democrats in the mainline TL-191 verse, likely get passed ITTL (which should soften any subsequent economic downturn considerably.)
On foreign policy, I would expect Roosevelt to have the U.S. help the Republican faction win the Mexican Civil War. He might also push for a U.S. controlled trans-oceanic canal in Central America.
As for U.S.-C.S. relations, a reelected Roosevelt will certainly make the Confederate government extradite Roger Kimball to the United States. Turning over a highly decorated "war hero" like Kimball will make the Whigs look really weak going into the 1921 election, so that might be just enough to get Featherston elected that year. If that happens the U.S. and C.S. are certain to quickly come to blows. Featherston campaigned in 1921 on a platform of unilaterally ending reparation payments to the United States, so as President he pretty much has to follow through on that or immediately become a lame duck, and TR isn't going to stand for the Confederates canceling their reparation payments. I would expect the U.S. to respond to Featherston cancelling reparations by occupying Tennessee and/or Cuba which will probably lead to the Confederate Army overthrowing Featherston and establishing a military government that will then come to terms with the United States. (General Stuart already despises Featherston, so if he thinks Featherston is leading the CSA into a hopeless war with the United States, he will probably take action.) If there is such a coup then the Confederate States will be extremely unstable in the aftermath, with civil war or one or more of the states attempting to secede being real possibilities.
The novels had Roosevelt die of natural causes in 1924, so it is unlikely Roosevelt lives through his third term. The sympathy factor might be enough to have Roosevelt's veep win reelection, but I think it is more likely the Socialist candidate (likely Sinclair again) wins in 1924.
On foreign policy, I would expect Roosevelt to have the U.S. help the Republican faction win the Mexican Civil War. He might also push for a U.S. controlled trans-oceanic canal in Central America.
As for U.S.-C.S. relations, a reelected Roosevelt will certainly make the Confederate government extradite Roger Kimball to the United States. Turning over a highly decorated "war hero" like Kimball will make the Whigs look really weak going into the 1921 election, so that might be just enough to get Featherston elected that year. If that happens the U.S. and C.S. are certain to quickly come to blows. Featherston campaigned in 1921 on a platform of unilaterally ending reparation payments to the United States, so as President he pretty much has to follow through on that or immediately become a lame duck, and TR isn't going to stand for the Confederates canceling their reparation payments. I would expect the U.S. to respond to Featherston cancelling reparations by occupying Tennessee and/or Cuba which will probably lead to the Confederate Army overthrowing Featherston and establishing a military government that will then come to terms with the United States. (General Stuart already despises Featherston, so if he thinks Featherston is leading the CSA into a hopeless war with the United States, he will probably take action.) If there is such a coup then the Confederate States will be extremely unstable in the aftermath, with civil war or one or more of the states attempting to secede being real possibilities.
The novels had Roosevelt die of natural causes in 1924, so it is unlikely Roosevelt lives through his third term. The sympathy factor might be enough to have Roosevelt's veep win reelection, but I think it is more likely the Socialist candidate (likely Sinclair again) wins in 1924.
Except that Kimball was a war criminal and a Freedom PArty member, which probably kills the Freedom Party's chances in 1921. Probably that would be enough for the party to collapse, especially if Hampton still gets murdered.
I thought the Mexican Civil War started in 1925?
Featherston would probably move to get rid of Stuart as soon as he is in office, certainly before he starts a war. Remember that Featherston blames the generals as much as he does the blacks.
- BNC
bguy
Donor
Kimball's crimes were known well in advance of the 1921 election in the canon timeline, and it didn't seem to significantly hurt Featherston. He still came dangerously close to winning the election that year. As such in a timeline where Featherston can play up Kimball as a martyr (and where it is obvious that the U.S. isn't going to let up on Confederate reparations), Featherston has an excellent chance of winning the election.
I don't think we have an exact date for when the war started. However, Jefferson Pinkard's first scene in The Center Cannot Hold discusses the Mexican civil war and that scene is set in early 1924, so that's the absolute latest it could have started.
Featherston might want to sack Stuart but would he be able to? In the canon timeline even though Featherston took office in 1934, he didn't feel secure enough to move against Stuart until 1936. I don't think he would move any faster against Stuart if he was elected in 1921, especially since a Featherston elected in 1921 is going to have a much weaker hold on power than a Featherston elected in 1933. (For one thing when the Freedom Party came to power in 1934 it had majorities in both houses of the Confederate Congress, whereas for a Featherston elected in 1921 it is mathematically impossible for the Freedom Party-Redemption League to hold a majority in the Confederate Senate, since only 1/3 of the Confederate Senate seats were up that year, and neither the Freedom Party or Redemption League elected anyone to the Senate until that year.)
I definitely see TR keeping the CSA on it's back. The second the Confederates begin breaking the treaty sees U.S. troops occupying Tennessee and the remainder of Virginia. It'll get interesting if TR dies when he did in the books. I can't remember who is Vice President was, but things could be thrown in turmoil.
There was a limited war between the US and Japan in the books--when did that break out?
Even if it was after 1924, Roosevelt's greater emphasis on military preparedness might deter Japan from a war later on. Perhaps Japan might align itself more closely with the Central Powers--French Indochina and British Hong Kong were closer to its region of interest, anyway.
Even if it was after 1924, Roosevelt's greater emphasis on military preparedness might deter Japan from a war later on. Perhaps Japan might align itself more closely with the Central Powers--French Indochina and British Hong Kong were closer to its region of interest, anyway.
About 1930 or 1932. It only lasted for about 6 chapters' worth and included the bombing of Blackford's speech. TR wouldn't have anything to do with that.
- BNC
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Well it depends, if TR gets Congress to fund the US military greater than OTL, well Japan may well decide to look for softer targets
If TR can pull that off, and the U.S. Military gets more funding until at least 1924 then Morrell could finish his prototype barrel. Can you imagine the U.S. having good tanks in 1941 in Ohio?
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Just the tanks wouldn't really make much difference, what hurt the US in Blackbeard was concentration of force, surprise and better CS doctrine. They wouldn't hurt but what would really help is if the US can do larger scale wargames in the 20's and get doctrine worked out better
Better U.S. doctrine concerning barrels would have been much better too. I always imagined Morrell putting together war games during the 20's utilizing a few barrel divisions.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Not just barrel doctrine, but combing truck or APC mounted infantry, barrels, self propelled or towed artillery, aircraft and motorized support units into a coherent whole
Unsupported armor, with a few exceptions, dies rapidly
Of course. I should have clarified that the barrel divisions would include support elements, and, perhaps, have some experimental mechanized/motorized divisions participating in the war game with them.
I could see Morrell leading something equivalent to the U.S. 1940 War Games.
bguy
Donor
Oddly enough aircraft carriers seem to be the one defense item the Socialists did not neglect during the Sinclair Administration. It is mentioned in one of the Sam Carsten scenes in The Center Cannot Hold set in 1928 that the U.S. Navy has 3 purpose built aircraft carriers in service plus the Remembrance. (That is one more aircraft carrier than the OTL U.S. Navy had by 1928.) I doubt TR would do much better at building aircraft carriers than that (especially since most of the prominent admirals during his third term will probably still be battleship men who believe that aircraft carriers are only of use for scouting and raiding.)