Tilden wins

What would be the effect of a Tilden victory in 1876, he had won the popular vote. Ironically, both Hayes and Bush won the Electoral College vote based on a disputed popular vote in Florida. The day after the 1876 election it appeared that Tilden, the Democrat, had won, but Republican election boards in Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida, where attacks by white supremacists against African American voters was widespread, invalidated enough votes seemingly to swing the election to Hayes. What would happen to Reconstruction if the Repuplicans don't make concessions to get Hayes into office?
 
The '76 election signaled the end of Reconstruction as we know it due to the Republican's concessions to secure victory for Hayes. IOTL, this had the effect of reducing tensions between the occupied South and the rest of the country at the expense of Jim Crow laws and institutionalized racism that overturned almost all advances that had been made in the South up to that point.

If they give Tilden the presidency, Congress should still remain in Republican hands, and their policy agenda will be unburdened by concessions to the South. So I'm thinking something along the lines of improved civil liberties and rights accorded to blacks in the South, and perhaps stiffer relations between north and south provided there is still a northern military presence in the south.
 
Reconstruction is dead under Tilden too, for financial reasons. For my money he's the last person who genuinely believed in small government who got close to the Presidency; he's going to pull the troops out of the South and reduce funding to things like the Freedmen's bureau because he's unwilling to pay for them. So the short-term practical impact of a Tilden victory is very small. It's a radical change in the national narrative though; Tilden is not readmitting the Southern states into the family as equals, he's giving up on them because turning southerners into civilized human beings is too much work. If you think regionalism is bad OTL...well, if Tilden's line becomes part of conventional wisdom, it leaves the door open for more nastiness down the line, express federal policies of no southerners appointed to certain offices and posts, and leaves the country divided enough than when a WWI analog rolls around, the USA has to think VERY CAREFULLY about assembling and posting a large army, if it even can.
 
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