Throw of the Dice
A Short War and its Consequences
We begin in Paris.A Short War and its Consequences
Louis-Eugène Cavaignac is assassinated on 24 June, 1848, shortly after taking office as military leader. The real culprit, in the end, is never found, though the bourgeois Guard is quick to make examples of any suspected of a part in the conspiracy. They, however, are left without a leader, and the government is thrown into disarray.
With Paris in tumult—this is, after all, the height of the June Days—the death of Cavaignac gives the rebels some precious breathing space. The delays and vacillation that have already allowed the revolutionaries to make as much headway as they have are extended and worsened. Members of the Central Republican Society release Auguste Blanqui from his prison in Vincennes, close to Paris proper, and he immediately returns, taking to the streets and preaching the illegitimacy of the government.
The forces of order require a leader, but none is to be found. Cavaignac, of course, is dead. Louis Napoleon, seeing the events unfolding, has no desire to openly impose himself in politics again—not just yet. On the other side, Barbès and the other socialists, for all their attempts to take lead of the revolution, find it hard to overcome their discrediting in May, and realise the limitations of their power. While Louis Pujol’s forces in east Paris fight bitterly against the disorganised Guard, rebels elsewhere take advantage of the opportunity, breaking guard lines and attempting to storm the Hôtel de Ville. They are repelled—at great cost for both sides.
The Constituent Assembly is back in session. For the Deputies, it soon becomes clear that they have few available options. A temporary military dictatorship, like that accorded to Cavaignac, seems ideal but impossible to set out in practice—it seems there are few prepared to fill his shoes. In the end Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin, revolutionary leader of February, ambivalent democrat and conciliator, and a member of the Executive Commission which had only just been deposed, is (reluctantly) brought back and chosen as head of a provisional government.
The choice of foreign minister is—surprising. At Ledru-Rollin’s instigation, the new, inchoate provisional government now reaches outside the ranks of the established leaders and selects the under-secretary of the navy, Victor Schoelcher, best known for his decrees abolishing slavery. Ledru-Rollin, and many in the Party of Order too, are prepared to view Schoelcher as a relatively benign idealist—and besides, foreign affairs are hardly the most pressing issue when Paris is drowning in violence. Better now to direct the leaders’ energy towards that particular problem. Schoelcher, meanwhile, views the position as a logical next step in promoting his own liberal policies.
But Ledru-Rollin is stuck in a quandary. He is sure the workers’ rising will be defeated soon enough. But he realises that his government is a compromise that cannot last. He will be blamed on the left for the suppression of the workers, just as he was blamed in May. On the right, he will be[FONT="]—[/FONT]already is, in fact[FONT="]—[/FONT]seen as an unnecessary concession. Sooner or later, too, the conservatives will find their leader. Louis Napoleon may not have put in a strong performance earlier in the year, but he remains a force to be reckoned with. How, then, with all this, can the country possibly be united? How can he build a coalition to support him? These and many other questions will fill Ledru-Rollin’s mind for the coming two months. With power in his hands, he does not intend to relinquish it too easily.
[FONT="]— — — —[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
September 3, 1848.[1] Statement by Foreign Minister Schoelcher to the Second National Constituent Assembly.[FONT="]
[/FONT]
“As many previous resolutions attest, it has been the longstanding opinion of the French people that the Italian nation must be liberated from its sorry captivity under the thumb of foreign oppression. The recent attempts of previous governments to attain a worthy, equitable solution by means of diplomacy, have met with nothing but stubbornness and obstructionism. Yet republics have grown in Italy like green shoots from fertile soil, and we surely recognise the virtuous duty of one republic to aid another. If Italy cannot go it alone, then France shall come to her aid. Indeed, the French people can no longer stand back and watch in passivity as Liberty is once more nailed to the cross by tyrants. We know the feelings of the people of Lombardy and Venetia, who have groaned under the heavy shackles of oppression. Now, we stand together with them as one, united by reason, by justice and by our shared desire for freedom. Fifty years ago, the French people stood alone. But we shall fight now with the nations of Europe at our side. Against the Austrian Empire, the French Republic pronounces a declaration of war.”
[1] The date 3 September is chosen since IOTL, 1 September was the date on which international circumstances seemingly forced the French government to agree on an armed intervention in Venice. It changed its mind the next day. Here things run a little differently.
This will be my second attempt at a TL. Unfortunately the first attempt (which was a long time ago) failed due to a lack of time on my own part, and on reviewing it two years later I'm not sure the premise was realistic to start with. Sorry about that. Hopefully I won't need to break off suddenly here, and hopefully too this is a bit more substantial.
Last edited: