Three-way Cold War?

A reactionary British Empire that somehow ends up in better shape post-World War II. Or maybe resulting from a shorter World War I with an Allied victory. This could be the third pole in addition to United States and Soviet Union. I don't think it would last long in this Cold War scenario, as it has the years stacked against it.
 
China? An even more right-wing Nationalist group during the Chinese Civil War, possibly then tries to exert influence around South Asia? It may not be a global hegemon like the US or Soviet Union, but it would be a force to be reckoned with, especially once it developed nukes.
 
Have the Anglo-French union go ahead in 1940.As a result, the war in Europe ends a bit earlier (France is still helping)

After the war, the union holds because both countries are annoyed at the USA greed in bankrupting tyhem and restricting their trade. They go it alone, taking their emoires and dominiums with them. This gives you a grouping powerful enough to be a belivable 3rd force with an agenda different to both the usa and the ussr
 
A more benevolent, but still Imperialistic Japanese Empire which survived through WWII by not attacking the Western Allies, instead focusing on China and supporting nationalist movements in the Pacific and Asian colonies (some of which succede, due to Europe being unable to maintain their control due to an extended WWII, as the US joins later). Affectively, on a small military scale and larger diplomatic scale, forming the Greater Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.
 
A failure of the Russian Revolution, leading eventually to the rise of Communism in Germany (read my TL, its better explained). At the same time, the lack of a real WW2 allows Japan to finally defeat China, and, through supporting local independence movements and (some) warfare, absorb most of East Asia into the East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere. Then, there would likely be a three-way Cold War between Communist Germany, the USA, and Japan.
 
In 1937 the Chinese-Japanese war starts as planned but goes better for China. Not greatly better but enough to startle the world.
The US steps in and doesn't attack Japan but makes it back down. China looses more territory especially in the North, but the south largely stays whole and there is peace.
Japan and Italy realize that the democracies while rather slow and kind of stupid aren't exactly push overs. When Nazi Germany goes to war they stay out, offering lip service support but avoiding outright alliances. When France falls, Japan takes control of French Indo-China much like OTL.
After Nazi Germany is defeated (more bloody than OTL due to not going into Africa or Greece) the world is divided in three.
The Northern Alliance (USA, Britain, Northern Europe, Canada and Australia).
The Communist Block (USSR, much of the Balkans, and Eastern Europe)
The Fascists (Japan and its colonies+puppets, Thailand, Argentina, Italy, Spain, Greece)

The Fascists are the weakest, but they appeal to a number of underdogs and offer easy to use weapons cheap.
Communists are popular amongst the colonies and rebels.
The Northern Alliance has the almighty dollar and pound behind it.
 
just out of curiosity, why is Nazi Germany surviving ASB. I can postulate a Nazi Germany surviving or even winning WW2. It wouldn't be our Nazi Germany, but it would be a Nazi Germany..... although ran differently and probably with not so many disgusting racial traits.

I know some people are going to say...."Buts that not Nazi Germany, just a paternal dictatorship with the same name." I would respond by saying sure, but given the quirks of AH, any AH Nazi Germany that is identical to ours is ASB not the fact that they won or lost.
 
just out of curiosity, why is Nazi Germany surviving ASB. I can postulate a Nazi Germany surviving or even winning WW2. It wouldn't be our Nazi Germany, but it would be a Nazi Germany..... although ran differently and probably with not so many disgusting racial traits.

I know some people are going to say...."Buts that not Nazi Germany, just a paternal dictatorship with the same name." I would respond by saying sure, but given the quirks of AH, any AH Nazi Germany that is identical to ours is ASB not the fact that they won or lost.

Any Nazi victory in WWII, with enough foes remaining to keep up a cold war, is ASB. A Nazi victory necessitates the subjugation or destruction of almost all of Germany's rivals, except for the US. And that's only a two-way cold war.
 
I know some people are going to say...."Buts that not Nazi Germany, just a paternal dictatorship with the same name." I would respond by saying sure, but given the quirks of AH, any AH Nazi Germany that is identical to ours is ASB not the fact that they won or lost.

I really don't think you grasp the limitations of AH: when we discuss points of divergence, we do not include "and then nation X began behaving in an entirely uncharacteristic way" or "and then Hitler became nicer." People are not dice or coins: their behavior is not determined by random chance. They have histories and ideas and ingrained behaviors. Any Hitler-and-the-Nazi-party run Germany with Hitler unchanged up to, say, 1922 is going to be a horrible place: of course the details will vary, but the essential character will be similar, since Hitler and the other main players will be broadly as OTL - they are highly unlikely to have a Road to Damascus moment.

(Anyhoo, it's _hard_ for Germany, any Germany, to establish itself as the Overlord of Europe post-WWI and the Russian revolution. Big Kid on the Block, yes, but establishing enough of a mastery of Europe and its resources to challenge a continental monster like the US? HARD.)

Bruce
 
A more benevolent, but still Imperialistic Japanese Empire which survived through WWII by not attacking the Western Allies, instead focusing on China and supporting nationalist movements in the Pacific and Asian colonies (some of which succede, due to Europe being unable to maintain their control due to an extended WWII, as the US joins later). Affectively, on a small military scale and larger diplomatic scale, forming the Greater Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.

This seems like the most reasonable possibility with a POD after WWI.

I think the best chance for a three way Cold War requires a POD that changes WWI. A good POD might be Britain not getting involved in the war, leading to a German victory on both fronts by 1915 or 1916. This leads to a German-dominated Europe in tension with the British Empire. The possibilities for the third power are pretty broad here: probably the best bet is a resurgent Russia that wants to get back at Germany but has no reason to think favorably of Britain. Other possibilities could be the United States, Imperial Japan (which could have its eyes on colonies belonging to both European blocs), maybe even a surviving Ottoman Empire.
 
This seems like the most reasonable possibility with a POD after WWI.

I think the best chance for a three way Cold War requires a POD that changes WWI. A good POD might be Britain not getting involved in the war, leading to a German victory on both fronts by 1915 or 1916. This leads to a German-dominated Europe in tension with the British Empire. The possibilities for the third power are pretty broad here: probably the best bet is a resurgent Russia that wants to get back at Germany but has no reason to think favorably of Britain. Other possibilities could be the United States, Imperial Japan (which could have its eyes on colonies belonging to both European blocs), maybe even a surviving Ottoman Empire.

What about a Russo-Japanese alliance?
 
What about a Russo-Japanese alliance?

That could happen; I suppose it depends on whether or not Japan tries to grab anything in the Russian Far East while Russia's in the process of losing the alt-WWI.

One problem with positing a three-way Cold War is that the OTL Cold War could only happen precisely because by 1945 there were only two major powers left that hadn't been utterly annihilated by World War II. It's a lot easier to maintain equilibrium with two rival powers than with three. Once you add a third, you get a 1984 situation where two blocs are more likely to gang up on the third and begin a hot war.

So I think any three-way Cold War wouldn't last very long, as it could only last until, as you suggested azander, Imperial Japan decides to link up with Russia (which is still going to be a formidable power even if it isn't one of the big 3) and make a play for, say, German Indochina while Russia keeps the German army busy in Poland.
 
I really don't think you grasp the limitations of AH: when we discuss points of divergence, we do not include "and then nation X began behaving in an entirely uncharacteristic way" or "and then Hitler became nicer." People are not dice or coins: their behavior is not determined by random chance. They have histories and ideas and ingrained behaviors. Any Hitler-and-the-Nazi-party run Germany with Hitler unchanged up to, say, 1922 is going to be a horrible place: of course the details will vary, but the essential character will be similar, since Hitler and the other main players will be broadly as OTL - they are highly unlikely to have a Road to Damascus moment.

(Anyhoo, it's _hard_ for Germany, any Germany, to establish itself as the Overlord of Europe post-WWI and the Russian revolution. Big Kid on the Block, yes, but establishing enough of a mastery of Europe and its resources to challenge a continental monster like the US? HARD.)

Bruce

Actually I grasp the concept quite well. Thank you. But consider, take a POD of Sept 1936. Hitler boards his Ju-52 after the Nuremburg Rally, to fly back to Berlin, or where-ever. The POD is that the Ju-52 crashes. Hitler is dead. Goering becomes Hitler's successor. It would be easy to write a timeline where Goering keeps power in Germany for 2 years, long enough to ensure the annexation of Czechoslovakia and the run up to Poland, then dies, or is overthrown, or even resigns (very doubtful). I haven't checked to see who would be Goering's successor, but it could be an army field marshal dependant on how Goering dies or is replaced.

That FM would likely keep the Third Reich as the name of the German state, and keep the Nazi flags and other trapping of the Third Reich. Why? Well, the people were pretty happy for the most part, the Nazi's were making Germany strong again, they had jobs, and some of the lost bits of the country had been returned. Of course, the Nazi name would be correct. It would be politically foolish not to. That is an AH Nazi government in charge, its no longer the same as our TL and diverting more and more each day. However, its still NAZI GERMANY.

Now Lord Protector says that for Nazi Germany to win, it must survive by defeating or keeping its enemies at bay. Nazi Germany had 3 enemies, the UK from 1939 onward, the Soviet Union from 1941 onward, and the US after Dec. 1942. Beating the UK would be almost impossible with a POD in 1936, but forcing it to sue for peace might not have been. Given a war starting in 1939 but that resulted in UK soldiers being trapped on the shores of France, but rather than the miracle at Dieppe, they are overrun and captured, it is possible that either the UK would sue for peace or that Germany would offer terms and the UK accepting them. Even if it means that Germany doesn't occupy most of France, they could still claim Alsace and Luxembourg with justification. Peace with the Allies in 1940 means that this Nazi Germany can turn more attention to the Soviets in 1941. Not maybe ground troops, but the Luftwaffe would be more involved as they wouldn't have to be fighting UK bomber raids and such, nor would they have fought the Air War.

The invasion of the Soviet Union could go different easily too. This Nazi Germany, would be more pragmatic about things, since the extremists would no longer be in power. If Ukrainian rebels approached them and asked for permission to form a liberation army, it might very well be granted. If the Germans play their cards right, they could force the Soviet Union to the table sometime in 1942 or 1943.

As for the US, well, given that the western allies are not fighting Germany, and that a sensible dictator would say, "Pfft, just because Japan attacked the US, why should we?", that leaves the 3 Germany enemies not fighting Germany.

So, Germany would be at peace by 1944. It would be a different country than our Nazi Germany and would not be a nice place to live in but it would still be recognizable as Nazi Germany. After the end of WW2, there would be 3 major powers that could be in a cold war. The western allies / USA, Nazi Germany, and the Soviets, who although mangled in WW2, would be rebuilding in Siberia and the Urals.

Anyway... my point is that winning the war as Nazi Germany is not ASB. Its difficult yes, but ASB, no. ASB is winning WW2 as Poland, or as Yugoslavia, or maybe as a neutral Belgium.
 
What about a Russo-Japanese alliance?

You mean a lasting Russo-Japanese alliance?
There was a treaty in 1916 which etablished an alliance between both empires.

Had Russia stayed in the war until victory over Germany had been
achieved, it is possible that Japan would have been more successful at the Versailles Peace Conference.
It is not improbable, for example, that Russia would have supported Japan in the fight for racial equality.
Moreover, had friction developed between Russia and Britain over the division of spoils in the Near East, it is possible, especially in view of the decreasing popularity and effectiveness of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, that a Russo-Japanese bloc could have crystallized in the Far East to counter the developing Anglo-American coalition.
Quite conceivably, the isolation of Japan at the Washington Conference in 192111922 and the return of Shantung rights to China could have been avoided.
Russia and Japan could have further demarcated their spheres of influence in China, leaving essentially the western regions to Russia and the coastal part to Japan.
As Sazonov indicated in 1915, when he spoke of long-range objectives of Russia and Japan, there was no basic clash of interests between the two countries.
Source
 
A more benevolent, but still Imperialistic Japanese Empire which survived through WWII by not attacking the Western Allies

For that to work you need to butterfly away the American oil embargo. If the embargo still happens the Japanese are destined to starve or launch a war against the West they can't win.

I've always been curious what would have happened if the Japanese had simply attacked the European colonial holdings and ignored the United States. Could FDR have convinced the American public to go to war for European colonial possessions? If he does, what happens to the US Navy without the lesson of Pearl Harbor? It's not out of the realm of possibility to imagine a second Tsushima if the US Navy was foolhardy enough to send the battleships into the Japanese defensive perimeter; they'd be fighting against an IJN with superior tactics and support from land based bombers.

More importantly (Germany first) would Hitler have declared war on the US without the Japanese doing the same? Granted, there was already a shooting war in the Atlantic but how much longer would FDR have had to wait to openly wage war against Germany without Hitler doing him the favor of the declaring war?
 
Actually I grasp the concept quite well. Thank you. But consider, take a POD of Sept 1936. Hitler boards his Ju-52 after the Nuremburg Rally, to fly back to Berlin, or where-ever. The POD is that the Ju-52 crashes. Hitler is dead. Goering becomes Hitler's successor. It would be easy to write a timeline where Goering keeps power in Germany for 2 years, long enough to ensure the annexation of Czechoslovakia and the run up to Poland, then dies, or is overthrown, or even resigns (very doubtful). I haven't checked to see who would be Goering's successor, but it could be an army field marshal dependant on how Goering dies or is replaced.

That FM would likely keep the Third Reich as the name of the German state, and keep the Nazi flags and other trapping of the Third Reich. Why? Well, the people were pretty happy for the most part, the Nazi's were making Germany strong again, they had jobs, and some of the lost bits of the country had been returned. Of course, the Nazi name would be correct. It would be politically foolish not to. That is an AH Nazi government in charge, its no longer the same as our TL and diverting more and more each day. However, its still NAZI GERMANY.

And it still has the kind of people who made it a nasty regime in pretty much the same ways and whose ultimate goals are going to be solved by hot war, not cold war.

Now Lord Protector says that for Nazi Germany to win, it must survive by defeating or keeping its enemies at bay. Nazi Germany had 3 enemies, the UK from 1939 onward, the Soviet Union from 1941 onward, and the US after Dec. 1942. Beating the UK would be almost impossible with a POD in 1936, but forcing it to sue for peace might not have been. Given a war starting in 1939 but that resulted in UK soldiers being trapped on the shores of France, but rather than the miracle at Dieppe, they are overrun and captured, it is possible that either the UK would sue for peace or that Germany would offer terms and the UK accepting them. Even if it means that Germany doesn't occupy most of France, they could still claim Alsace and Luxembourg with justification. Peace with the Allies in 1940 means that this Nazi Germany can turn more attention to the Soviets in 1941. Not maybe ground troops, but the Luftwaffe would be more involved as they wouldn't have to be fighting UK bomber raids and such, nor would they have fought the Air War.

The invasion of the Soviet Union could go different easily too. This Nazi Germany, would be more pragmatic about things, since the extremists would no longer be in power. If Ukrainian rebels approached them and asked for permission to form a liberation army, it might very well be granted. If the Germans play their cards right, they could force the Soviet Union to the table sometime in 1942 or 1943.
The Nazi party by definition is extremist. Having them decide to suddenly become Nazi-lite would be counter to the party ideology and the kind of people who joined the party and lead the party because of that ideology.

Some of them are even worse than others, but something involving the Nazi party being in power (and it not being in power is not Nazi Germany) will still see people who are somewhere on the wrong end of sanity.

And not the types that would be content with cold war.

"Its Nazi in name only" would not work because anyone out to change the Nazi policies enough to do that would not keep the identification with them. And even they were willing, it would not be "Nazi Germany" any more than Greece calling itself the New Roman Empire would be a continuation of the state destroyed in 1453.
 
An Italy neutral in WWII?

After the war Benny as the leader of one of the few intact nation of the world can bring the other fascist regime of Europe (Spain and Portugal and maybe Greece if they are not invaded and if we are bold Argentine) to form a third, weaker but still important, diplomatic/military block in the strugle between USA and URSS.
In this TL maybe is Benny or one of his successor to help create the Non alligned movement
 
Get China to go its own way, but instead of being Stalinist, have it do something else ideologically which allows it to become more powerful. Perhaps some more subtle pan-Asianism would promote better relations with its neighbors, and get its economy up to speed (but not ridiculously fast) much earlier than OTL.

Also, the Nazis could survive after taking non-Soviet Europe, though it would probably collapse in the long term.
 
Britain was far to reliant on the United States to form its own block after WW2 started. Now perhaps if we changed WW2 around and had France and Britain beat the crud outta Germany we could have them forming a European Union as a third block. Although I still see America being friendly with them and ganging up on the SU
 
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