Three Realistic CP Victories

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I've been playing with CP victory scenarios for months now, through discussion threads, research, and browsing other people's work. I'm still learning new and useful things as I go, but based on what I've discovered so far here are the scenarios I think most likely to work. Three maps of the world, using three different PODs, producing three different scenarios. Enjoy!
Map 1: No Invasion of Belgium

Many alt hist fans have suggested that going east first would've saved Germany a great deal of trouble and helped take out the weak link in the Entente chain. However, what is not common knowledge is that the Kaiser himself nearly brought this plan to fruition. As von Moltke was preparing to invade Belgium and France, the kaiser asked him if he could stop the mobilization and transfer troops to the east. Von Moltke said this was impossible, and the kaiser grumbled but ultimately accepted that answer.


In this timeline the Kaiser is more assertive and restrains Moltke from attacking in the west. This means Britain and Belgium will not be involved in the war, and perhaps even France will stay neutral (though if they did intervene they'd have a hard time pushing through the Siegfried line). This war would be first and foremost an eastern war, though Romania, Bulgaria and the Ottomans would likely join in to get a share of the spoils. Russia would have to make peace sooner or later, but unless the Germans get too ambitious they'll only lose Poland and the Ober Ost frontier zone (greater Lithuania + Courland). Romania will get Bessarabia, the Ottomans will get Kars, and Austria will reorganize the Balkans with Bulgaria and the other powers. Germany will annex the border strip and in the post war era will probably split the Portuguese colonies with Britain. Russia will experience some kind of revolution but nothing too serious; a more successful version of the earlier constitutional revolution and the abdication of Tsar Nicholas II is likely. Overall the pre-war status quo is preserved with minimal changes, though German-Austrian hegemony is achieved in eastern Europe and the Balkans.

Wait till tomorrow to see Map 2: the Schlieffen Plan!


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Map 2: The Schlieffen Plan

The Schlieffen Plan was a gamble from the start, but had it been executed properly it could have knocked France out of the conflict quickly and averted the two-front war Germany so greatly feared. This of course is another fairly common "turning point" but it's a potentially good one and would allow Germany to achieve most of its war aims (based on the Septemberprogramm). Most likely she would withdraw from Belgium and the Channel Coast to appease Britain (whom she otherwise has little leverage against at the peace conference) but she will gain a great deal of territory in Africa and will achieve European hegemony in a relatively short time (assuming the rest of the Entente makes peace relatively soon).

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In the east the situation is largely the same: Germany creates a buffer zone and an independent Poland, and will likely begin colonizing the border strip and the Ober Ost territories after the war. The Balkans come under CP hegemony, Turkey makes gains in the Caucasus, and Russia is effectively contained for the time being.In the west, Germany annexes Luxembourg, Arlon (Belgium), and a French border strip including the slopes of the Vosges and the strategic iron deposit of the Briey Basin. This effectively cripples France as an industrial and military power and ensures she is unlikely to challenge Germany again. In Africa, Germany takes her desired clay from Belgium and France and partitions the Portuguese colonies with Britain. The Channel Coast, as I mentioned, is too ambitious a plan, and Germany would have to withdraw to placate Britain andgain her acceptance of the vast colonial gains (which create a contiguous Mittelafrika. Territorially Britain loses nothing at all. Germany however creates the Mitteleuropa economic union, forces France and Belgium into it, an brings most of the other continental countries minus Russia into its orbit. Italy will be encouraged to join with the granting of territories at France's expense, and hostilities with Austria will die down with the passage of time. This is, apart from a Brest-Litovsk or a successful pan-Islamist jihad, basically the best Germany can hope for, as she achieves most of her goals and eliminates or contains her rivals.

Later I will post Map 3: A Late Victory


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Bonus Map: Schlieffen Sequel

This is a scenario I just came up with today while speculating on what might happen AFTER the Schlieffen scenario of Map 2. Essentially, Wilhelm fulfills his dream of allying with Russia, Italy, the Ottomans and China in a grand coalition against Britain and Japan. The idea is that Germany and Russia sort things out between themselves, with Germany abandoning plans to colonize the Baltics and forming an alliance. Russia then turns to Asia (rather than Europe) as its new playground, and in the course of this a second war with Japan erupts. This triggers a Second Weltkrieg, in which the European alliance successfully drives Britain out of Africa and the Middle East (for the most part). In the Far East, Germany will likely lose its colonies to Japan, but Russia may be able to conquer/liberate Korea and Manchuria and (with the Ottomans) bring Afghanistan and Persia on side. Ultimately, we're left with five great powers (US, remnants of British Empire, German-led Europe, Russian-led Eurasia, and Japanese sphere in Asia), with Italy and the Ottomans also becoming major powers.

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Map 3: A Late Victory

In this scenario, the war largely proceeds as it did in our timeline up until 1916 or 1917. Then, one way or another, the Central Powers do something differently and manage to bring the Entente to the negotiations table, and they end up with a deal that's more or less what Bethmann-Hollweg offered in late 1916. My idea would be that they avoid war with America, and this prompts Kerensky's Russia to make a separate peace (the lack of potential US loans removes an incentive to stay in the war). Italy is knocked out with a white peace after defeats in the Veneto, and the remaining powers agree to negotiate shortly afterwards.


Germany still managed to get its "bare minimum" (Poland, Lithuania, Courland) in the east, but this time they are hamstrung by promises regarding self-determination and the formation of national councils. Poland and Lithuania will remain intact and independent, under monarchs of their choice, though still effective satellites of the Kaiserreich and subject to economic and military control (similar to Romania under the Treaty of Bucharest, which is slightly different in this timeline as they don't get Bessarabia). Austria gains influence over Serbia, Albania and Montenegro, Bulgaria gets its share of clay, and Greece gives up Kavala in exchange for Epirus. In the west, the situation is mostly the same as in the Schlieffen scenario; key border modifications are made, but no lasting presence on the Channel can be established. Germany managed to get its African colonies back (plus the Belgian Congo), and to preserve the Ottoman Empire in its pre-war borders, but the Pacific colonies are a lost cause. Russia and Italy will both lose their monarchies and/or become fascists, and France will also go in a radical direction or at least experience instability post-war. Germany reigns supreme in Europe but her position is much more contested and Mitteleuropa will not include any of the "Latin" countries. It's significantly less than what the Germans wanted but overall they've come out in the lead.


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