Three off-the-wall Vietnam what-ifs

raharris1973

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The three scenarios, all having to with pre-20th century Vietnam, are as follows:

1) The Dutch colonize Vietnam and rule some or all of it as tightly as they ruled Java

2) The independent Vietnamese empire discovers or conquers some overseas territory (the water distance can be short or long)

3) What are the most likely 21st century boundaries of any sovereign Thai, Vietnamese, Khmer or Lao states in a scenario with the PoD that no Europeans ever colonize Indochina [as they did in OTL, pre-1900], even though Europeans colonize other places around the globe? What would be the most likely demographic boundaries of Thai, Vietnamese, Khmer and Lao speaking people in said scenario?
 
The three scenarios, all having to with pre-20th century Vietnam, are as follows:

1) The Dutch colonize Vietnam and rule some or all of it as tightly as they ruled Java

2) The independent Vietnamese empire discovers or conquers some overseas territory (the water distance can be short or long)

3) What are the most likely 21st century boundaries of any sovereign Thai, Vietnamese, Khmer or Lao states in a scenario with the PoD that no Europeans ever colonize Indochina [as they did in OTL, pre-1900], even though Europeans colonize other places around the globe? What would be the most likely demographic boundaries of Thai, Vietnamese, Khmer and Lao speaking people in said scenario?


1) They didn't get to tightly controlling Java until quite late. Problem you'd have is that Vietnam is the stereotype of the centralised Asian country with guns: it's extremely hard to conquer before 1850.
That said, it could be subverted, if a Greek adventurer became Prime Minister of Siam...
They would try to conquer the Trinh in the North first since they had the most contact with them. The Trinh are extremely powerful and populous but rely on the Dutch and Portuguese for their artillery and a good part of their external trade.
You'd need to encourage secession of some Prince, or if you're vicious, secretly support a Mac resurgence

2) That'd be quite complicated, they still had a lot to do on the mainland and were a very land based country, but who knows, with a better Champa integration or some Champa king trying to get away?

3) The Vietnamese would probably push until they'd look like OTL Indochina, with Laos and Cambodia integrated, they were quite close to that. Dunno about taking on the Thais though!
 
3) The Vietnamese would probably push until they'd look like OTL Indochina, with Laos and Cambodia integrated, they were quite close to that.
They weren't though, the Thais were in firm control of both Laos and Cambodia. I don't think the Vietnamese would be able to cross the Annamite Range - natural conditions aside, the Chakri dynasty (and Thailand in general) was in full splendor when the Europeans arrived while the Nguyen were already showing signs of decline.
 
They weren't though, the Thais were in firm control of both Laos and Cambodia. I don't think the Vietnamese would be able to cross the Annamite Range - natural conditions aside, the Chakri dynasty (and Thailand in general) was in full splendor when the Europeans arrived while the Nguyen were already showing signs of decline.
Laos was always in flux and often quite close to Vietnam.

For Cambodia, it was firmly in decline, especially after the loss of Cochinchina to... Vietnam. I do believe the Viet could have taken it. Now, could they have gone to Thailand? I have doubts about it, like you
 

raharris1973

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1) They didn't get to tightly controlling Java until quite late. Problem you'd have is that Vietnam is the stereotype of the centralised Asian country with guns: it's extremely hard to conquer before 1850.
That said, it could be subverted, if a Greek adventurer became Prime Minister of Siam...
They would try to conquer the Trinh in the North first since they had the most contact with them. The Trinh are extremely powerful and populous but rely on the Dutch and Portuguese for their artillery and a good part of their external trade.
You'd need to encourage secession of some Prince, or if you're vicious, secretly support a Mac resurgence

---Cool idea - I'm not surprised it would take some heavy lifting and manipulation

2) That'd be quite complicated, they still had a lot to do on the mainland and were a very land based country, but who knows, with a better Champa integration or some Champa king trying to get away?

---Hmm, well the closest overseas points are Borneo, with the Sulu Sultanate and the Brunei Sultanate. How could better "Champa integration" work out and what would the resulting state and culture look like. Are you imagine a deliberate merging/confederation of peoples rather than simple colonization, displacement, fragmentation and absorption?

3) The Vietnamese would probably push until they'd look like OTL Indochina, with Laos and Cambodia integrated, they were quite close to that. Dunno about taking on the Thais though!

I had thought the Siamese and Vietnamese would meet at some mainly vertical line running more or less through the center of Laos and Cambodia, with the Lao and Khmer becoming as submerged in both empires as the Chams of OTL.
 
How could better "Champa integration" work out and what would the resulting state and culture look like. Are you imagine a deliberate merging/confederation of peoples rather than simple colonization, displacement, fragmentation and absorption?

A confederation is frankly impossible because the two kingdoms have been warring with each other countless time since the 10th century, as such they have way too many bad-blood to even talk peacefully, not to mention the fact that Vietnam permanently cripple Champa that same year.

A better integration would have to be after Champa more or less broke permanently yet also have to be earlier than 1832 (which is when Vietnam annex Champa OTL) to develop a groundwork for overseas ambitions.
 
A confederation is frankly impossible because the two kingdoms have been warring with each other countless time since the 10th century, as such they have way too many bad-blood to even talk peacefully, not to mention the fact that Vietnam permanently cripple Champa that same year.

A better integration would have to be after Champa more or less broke permanently yet also have to be earlier than 1832 (which is when Vietnam annex Champa OTL) to develop a groundwork for overseas ambitions.
Doesn't have to be a federation, but a better integration in society.
Like, there were some big laws against integration.
Mixed marriages between Viet and Champa were forbidden after the conquest of the XVth century.

If the Champa were an active part of the Viet society (maybe they're less hard headed and the conquest is less "we must destroy them before they destroy us") the orientation of Vietnam might be more toward commerce and the sea.
OTL, the Lé dynasty was all about agriculture, and so land based

Maybe a Champa society/prince/general gets away and starts something elsewhere while becoming a Dai Viet tributary? Ties grow until they get integrated by an aggressive alt-Nguyen in the late XVIth/early XVIIth century?
 

raharris1973

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I actually realized that the Malay peninsula is a shorter distance from Vietnam by water than Borneo is. I'm not sure, but tend to think it was ruled by somewhat more powerful states than were in Borneo.

There's Hainan, but that just seems like its asking for way too much trouble from China eventually.
 
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