Deleted member 1487
IOTL U-56 a Type IIC submarine intercepted the HMS Nelson when Churchill and the leadership of the Admiralty was onboard in October 1939; it fired three 'fish' at the Nelson, but none worked and the ship continued on, leaving the Captain of U-56 severely distraught and required extended leave before returning to duty, becoming the 'man that almost killed Churchill'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Zahn
This marked the beginning of the Torpedo Crisis that afflicted the Uboats from 1939-40 until the problems were worked out and cost the Germans the opportunity to sink well over 100 ships.
What If?
But what if the torpedoes had worked and they tore into the Nelson? In this TL I'm going to lay out a short outline of events that people are free to critique and I may flesh out into something longer later.
This TL sees the Nelson hit by the torpedoes, but given its strong anti-torpedo defenses it survives the hits and 'just' lists badly as it takes on water. The Admiralty is evacuated as the ship is now a sitting duck, but in the haste to get the VIPs off the listing ship the older Churchill slips and falls, striking his head, develops a blood clot, and later dies of his injury. Zahn is unable to get a message off to the rest of the Uboats in the area in time and the ship and fleet escape further damage. The Nelson is laid up but repaired within 12 months.
Churchill's death is a bad blow to the morale of the nation and his presence will be sorely missed some 1940. The Norway operation continues as per OTL as it was pretty obvious what needed to happen there, Churchill or no, though he pretty much laid out the operation before October:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Campaign#Initial_plans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wilfred
OTL pretty much plays out with more German gloating over their hit on the Nelson and the Royal Navy being more willing to get aggressive to reclaim their honor. Practically this doesn't mean much difference to the course of the war. The Nelson isn't really missed as it hit a mine in late 1939 anyway and was laid for for repairs IOTL, so it pretty much is ready about the same time in August 1940 as it was IOTL.
The big difference is quite obvious though: Churchill is not around during the Norway debate to take over, leaving Halifax as the only PM option. Tradition is waved to allow a Lord to take the position, as it was planned to be IOTL, and the very apprehensive Halifax takes over just as the Germans are attacking France and it all falls apart. By June he attempts to reach out to Hitler via Mussolini to get terms, but that plan is foiled by Italy's DoW on the Allies (which all happened as per OTL).
Instead he follows his back up plan as France capitulates and reaches out via Sweden. Intent on only accepting terms that didn't cost unacceptable amounts of land, treasure, and prevent British rearmament, Halifax is pleasantly surprised by Hitler demanding virtually none of that, simply turning over Malta to Italy so they have a minor gain to trumpet (it was thought to be indefensible anyway in June, so its a minor concession), demanding that German treaties with the continental powers be recognized by Britain, Britain expels the governments in exile, and returns any German property and citizens (in addition to prisoner swaps). Leaving Halifax with everything he wanted he brings the terms to the War Cabinet and despite some disagreement initially he manages to get agreement in the end that its better to take mild terms now and get out before things get worse than to continue and see what happens then; its thought that the US will not bother helping and with the USSR supplying German the blockade is moot anyway.
So Britain and German reach a white peace by early July 1940. Hitler concludes severe deals with the occupied continentals and in the case of Norway the King goes into exile with some of the merchant fleet rather than return to a Quisling-led government. The merchant fleet that goes with him contracts with Britain and the King moves to Canada. The deal gives Germany access to the colonial markets of the occupied countries, transfers their gold stocks to Germany (worth over $3 Billion in 1940 dollars), makes them accept Reichsmarks as payment, sets up tariffs beneficial to trade with Germany, and sees German troops occupy the countries, but not base offensive weapons in them (military naval vessels, bombers).
International trade resumes with an appalled world who now has to deal with a Nazi dominated Europe, which cuts out a lot of business that they used to do with Europe (namely small and medium sized US businesses, big corporations still have business with Europe). The US tries to set up embargoes against Japan, but cannot find willing partners in Europe and the US dare not embargo trade with Europe as their economy has already taken a major hit by the war and Nazi victory, even as the Nazis spend on necessary commodities using European gold. Trade with Britain is resumed to keep her friendly to Europe and because Germany simply cannot supply all the coal and various other needs of the occupied countries. Japan in the meantime worried about a US embargo puts its money in more friendly British banks to keep access to it. They continue to trade with the Dutch and British, both of whom are interested in keeping the Japanese off their back.
In September the Tripartite Pact is signed, effectively ensuring Britain would stay out of the coming war with the Soviets that Hitler planned, as British entry would mean fighting both Italy and Japan in addition to Germany. Meanwhile Germany furiously stockpiled oil, raw materials, and purchased machine tools and other essentials abroad to complete her armament's schemes and prepare for Hitler ideological war with the USSR.
Stalin in the meantime was in a panic over German success and upon occupying the promised territories in the Baltic and Bukowina as per the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact he ordered planning for war with Germany, both defensive and offensive plans. It quickly became clear that as the massive expansion, reorganization, and modernization plans for the military were enacted, along with the new fortifications of the Molotov Line was conducted there just wasn't enough material to equip everyone that was being trained; in the event of war it would mean using all the old weapons that had been mothballed and never thrown away.
It also became clear that neither an offense or defense could be well conducted due to the massive changes underway, nevertheless MP 41 was worked out and Stalin banked on being able to buy off Hitler for another year until the reforms were completed. He kept up deliveries of promised materials, not questioning why the Germans weren't paying him as they bought abroad, allowed increasing overflights of German aircraft without engaging them, just lodging protests, and keeping only to secret mobilization of several hundred thousand troops to avoid provoking Hitler. Partly deluding himself into believing he was succeeding in keeping war at bay he accepted Hitler's personal notes about the build up not being a threat to Stalin and to contact him if his generals tried to start a conflict without Hitler's approval; this delusion was furthered by the warnings of war from spies, signals intercepts, and the British being somewhat discredited when their claimed start date, May 15th, came and went without war. Furthermore as Stalin anticipated the war would have a long ramp up, starting with border incidents and escalating into an invasion over the course of a week so that Hitler could claim he was attacked and acting defensively. Therefore planning for war and wanting to avoid it required soldiers to resist provocation at the border and when it was clear the invasion was gearing up for the Soviets to conduct an 'active defense', which meant counterattacking the enemy immediately rather than absorbing his blows; spoiling attacks would be used to disrupt German mobilization and the attacks of Panzer divisions, rather than letting them dictate the pace of the war. All of this was to combine disastrously when the invasion came in June.
That's the start, thoughts?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Zahn
As commander of U-56 he was able to avoid detection by the destroyers surrounding HMS Nelson and came in close proximity to the British flagship, launching three torpedoes against her whilst she was carrying Winston Churchill and the high military command of the British Navy. Following that incident he became widely known as the "Man who almost killed Churchill" amongst the U-boat submariner corps.[3]
At 10 a.m. on 30 October 1939,[5][6] Zahn was commander of U-56 when he managed to avoid detection by the 10 destroyers and battle cruiser Hood,[7] protecting the Home Fleet west of the Orkneys and came within striking distance of HMS Nelson and Rodney.[5]
Unbeknownst to Zahn,[8] aboard the flagship HMS Nelson were First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill,[6] Admiral of the Fleet Sir Charles Forbes, and admiral Sir Dudley Pound who was the First Sea Lord at the time.[9][10] The reason for the gathering was Winston Churchill's decision to convene a conference with the leadership of the British Navy because of the sinking disaster of HMS Royal Oak caused by a U-boat attack during which 833 servicemen died.[8]
In Zahn's own account of the events, three cruisers were heading straight toward his U-boat's position, making any attack by him almost impossible, when suddenly they veered by twenty to thirty degrees from their previous course opening the field of attack and bringing him into a direct line of fire with HMS Nelson and HMS Rodney.[5][8] Rodney was the lead ship of the convoy and Zahn decided to wait until it passed and concentrated his sights on the Nelson.[5] The U-boat came within the point-blank range of 800 metres of the ship and Zahn's chances of striking and sinking it were high.[6][10]
He fired three torpedoes, from U-56's three torpedo tubes,[12] toward the flagship. All three struck the hull of the Nelson but failed to explode, although the sound of the impact with Nelson's hull was picked up by the sonar operators of U-56.[8][9][10][13] The third torpedo subsequently exploded at sea without causing damage.[9] The incident has been described as the "most important non-sinking" of the conflict.[6] After the attack Zahn became widely known as the "Man who almost killed Churchill" amongst the U-boat submariner corps.[3]
After the attack, Zahn ordered the U-boat to descend to a deeper level to avoid depth charges since the destroyers had by now detected its presence. In the evening Zahn ordered U-56 to surface and subsequently sent a radio report to Berlin listing the targets in the group including HMS Rodney. The delay in the transmission of the information was caused by Zahn's depression caused by missing his target. Had this delay in Zahn's report not happened, the German command could have sent U-58, which was in the area at the time, to renew the attack on the British targets.[5]
Because of his failure to destroy the Nelson, Zahn became depressed and Karl Dönitz had felt obliged to relieve him of his U-56 command and sent him back to Germany to become an instructor.[13][14]
Later, in his memoirs, Dönitz called the failed attack by U-56 "an exceptionally serious failure" but did not blame Zahn whose daring, in the presence of the destroyers, he praised, saying "The commander who had delivered the attack with great daring when surrounded by twelve escorting destroyers, was so depressed by this failure, in which he was in no way to blame, that I felt compelled to withdraw him for the time being from active operations and employ him as an instructor at home".[13] In addition Dönitz had received reports from his men concerning problems with the defective G7e torpedoes that they were using and knew that the failures were caused by the faulty torpedoes.[12] Zahn eventually recovered and later that year was given command of U-69.[14]
This marked the beginning of the Torpedo Crisis that afflicted the Uboats from 1939-40 until the problems were worked out and cost the Germans the opportunity to sink well over 100 ships.
What If?
But what if the torpedoes had worked and they tore into the Nelson? In this TL I'm going to lay out a short outline of events that people are free to critique and I may flesh out into something longer later.
This TL sees the Nelson hit by the torpedoes, but given its strong anti-torpedo defenses it survives the hits and 'just' lists badly as it takes on water. The Admiralty is evacuated as the ship is now a sitting duck, but in the haste to get the VIPs off the listing ship the older Churchill slips and falls, striking his head, develops a blood clot, and later dies of his injury. Zahn is unable to get a message off to the rest of the Uboats in the area in time and the ship and fleet escape further damage. The Nelson is laid up but repaired within 12 months.
Churchill's death is a bad blow to the morale of the nation and his presence will be sorely missed some 1940. The Norway operation continues as per OTL as it was pretty obvious what needed to happen there, Churchill or no, though he pretty much laid out the operation before October:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Campaign#Initial_plans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wilfred
OTL pretty much plays out with more German gloating over their hit on the Nelson and the Royal Navy being more willing to get aggressive to reclaim their honor. Practically this doesn't mean much difference to the course of the war. The Nelson isn't really missed as it hit a mine in late 1939 anyway and was laid for for repairs IOTL, so it pretty much is ready about the same time in August 1940 as it was IOTL.
The big difference is quite obvious though: Churchill is not around during the Norway debate to take over, leaving Halifax as the only PM option. Tradition is waved to allow a Lord to take the position, as it was planned to be IOTL, and the very apprehensive Halifax takes over just as the Germans are attacking France and it all falls apart. By June he attempts to reach out to Hitler via Mussolini to get terms, but that plan is foiled by Italy's DoW on the Allies (which all happened as per OTL).
Instead he follows his back up plan as France capitulates and reaches out via Sweden. Intent on only accepting terms that didn't cost unacceptable amounts of land, treasure, and prevent British rearmament, Halifax is pleasantly surprised by Hitler demanding virtually none of that, simply turning over Malta to Italy so they have a minor gain to trumpet (it was thought to be indefensible anyway in June, so its a minor concession), demanding that German treaties with the continental powers be recognized by Britain, Britain expels the governments in exile, and returns any German property and citizens (in addition to prisoner swaps). Leaving Halifax with everything he wanted he brings the terms to the War Cabinet and despite some disagreement initially he manages to get agreement in the end that its better to take mild terms now and get out before things get worse than to continue and see what happens then; its thought that the US will not bother helping and with the USSR supplying German the blockade is moot anyway.
So Britain and German reach a white peace by early July 1940. Hitler concludes severe deals with the occupied continentals and in the case of Norway the King goes into exile with some of the merchant fleet rather than return to a Quisling-led government. The merchant fleet that goes with him contracts with Britain and the King moves to Canada. The deal gives Germany access to the colonial markets of the occupied countries, transfers their gold stocks to Germany (worth over $3 Billion in 1940 dollars), makes them accept Reichsmarks as payment, sets up tariffs beneficial to trade with Germany, and sees German troops occupy the countries, but not base offensive weapons in them (military naval vessels, bombers).
International trade resumes with an appalled world who now has to deal with a Nazi dominated Europe, which cuts out a lot of business that they used to do with Europe (namely small and medium sized US businesses, big corporations still have business with Europe). The US tries to set up embargoes against Japan, but cannot find willing partners in Europe and the US dare not embargo trade with Europe as their economy has already taken a major hit by the war and Nazi victory, even as the Nazis spend on necessary commodities using European gold. Trade with Britain is resumed to keep her friendly to Europe and because Germany simply cannot supply all the coal and various other needs of the occupied countries. Japan in the meantime worried about a US embargo puts its money in more friendly British banks to keep access to it. They continue to trade with the Dutch and British, both of whom are interested in keeping the Japanese off their back.
In September the Tripartite Pact is signed, effectively ensuring Britain would stay out of the coming war with the Soviets that Hitler planned, as British entry would mean fighting both Italy and Japan in addition to Germany. Meanwhile Germany furiously stockpiled oil, raw materials, and purchased machine tools and other essentials abroad to complete her armament's schemes and prepare for Hitler ideological war with the USSR.
Stalin in the meantime was in a panic over German success and upon occupying the promised territories in the Baltic and Bukowina as per the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact he ordered planning for war with Germany, both defensive and offensive plans. It quickly became clear that as the massive expansion, reorganization, and modernization plans for the military were enacted, along with the new fortifications of the Molotov Line was conducted there just wasn't enough material to equip everyone that was being trained; in the event of war it would mean using all the old weapons that had been mothballed and never thrown away.
It also became clear that neither an offense or defense could be well conducted due to the massive changes underway, nevertheless MP 41 was worked out and Stalin banked on being able to buy off Hitler for another year until the reforms were completed. He kept up deliveries of promised materials, not questioning why the Germans weren't paying him as they bought abroad, allowed increasing overflights of German aircraft without engaging them, just lodging protests, and keeping only to secret mobilization of several hundred thousand troops to avoid provoking Hitler. Partly deluding himself into believing he was succeeding in keeping war at bay he accepted Hitler's personal notes about the build up not being a threat to Stalin and to contact him if his generals tried to start a conflict without Hitler's approval; this delusion was furthered by the warnings of war from spies, signals intercepts, and the British being somewhat discredited when their claimed start date, May 15th, came and went without war. Furthermore as Stalin anticipated the war would have a long ramp up, starting with border incidents and escalating into an invasion over the course of a week so that Hitler could claim he was attacked and acting defensively. Therefore planning for war and wanting to avoid it required soldiers to resist provocation at the border and when it was clear the invasion was gearing up for the Soviets to conduct an 'active defense', which meant counterattacking the enemy immediately rather than absorbing his blows; spoiling attacks would be used to disrupt German mobilization and the attacks of Panzer divisions, rather than letting them dictate the pace of the war. All of this was to combine disastrously when the invasion came in June.
That's the start, thoughts?