Does Roosevelt run again in 1944. Could we we have a Republican president?
I imagine by 1944 with Goering winding down the war and a far less scary persona than Hitler might be able to get the USA back distracted on its own issues. Is Goering and the Nazis as scary as post war 1947 Soviets? Probably not without some Berlin Airlift like confrontation. Many Americans are of German ancestry at that time so Germans are going to be less scary than Russians. Americans are a religious lot as well especially then, while Nazis are godless it wasn't exactly state policy like the Soviets. And giant corporations control much behind the scenes in both countries. So Nazis scare isn't likely to happen like Red scare. The German surface fleet is small. and Baku is a long way from Chicago.
So yes by 1945 in this TL (about a year of peace like conditions in Europe) the USA will become less tolerant of throwing money all over the globe vs. their own issues.
China is worth 100 American planes and pilots a year if that keeps them going and the Japanese occupied. The occasional Japanese terror bombing film with dead Chinese bodies piled up like below will keep up that level of effort. Probably not worth much more than that to most Americans at the time.
Here's the thing, based on the more reading I'm doing of US politics and economics leading up to the war, they would have a hard time getting political support for intervention without the 'hardening' of the July 1940-May 1941 period; even getting help for China would be hard, though they wouldn't mind selling to the USSR and China. British-US relations will be more frosty and the US Congress will be more conservative in what they will do once the public feels Europe is a lost cause due to Britain dropping out of the war and then losing India.
The Nazis will be even scarier than the Soviets; in many ways they would be a far worse threat and IOTL there were efforts by the conservative US establishment to turn them into a threat as big as the Nazis. With Europe dominated and contributing to the Axis economies, not to mention the colonial systems, plus Japan dominated Asia trading, the Axis will control a much larger area of GDP that together is larger than the US. IOTL West Germany alone had a larger economy than the USSR by the 1970s, so it was not nearly the threat the Axis would be ITTL. Plus Germany had significantly more scientific potential under their control. Yes there are ethnic and political similarities with certain US groups, but the Nazis were not popular with German-Americans. It was the Nazis that destroyed the popularity of the German language and culture in the US after all.
So by 1942 I'm thinking about changing the US section of the TL to reflect that the US is more isolationist and interested in defending itself at home rather than intervening in China, the Middle East, South Asia, or the Caucasus. Even getting an alliance with Britain would probably not happen I'm thinking. So the Nazis, despite their weakening in the East, have a lot more resources to compete internationally, especially as the US doesn't ramp itself up as per OTL and remains significantly weaker due to the lack of harnessing their latent potential for political reasons. Meanwhile the Axis gets stronger due to their captive markets/trade blocs that are linked, even with the drain in Eurasia. Britain too is getting drained by trying to maintain its empire, but so too will Axis bloc powers like France and later the Netherlands and Belgium. Over the long run other markets are going to be available like India and Iran and potentially former colonized nations that become independent. South Africa is probably also going to be willing to work with Axis Europe.