Three Fish V2

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Thoughts?

None on the issue of Latin America, but I do have a question.

If India had gained independence during the Russo-German war, then wouldn`t the UK be more focused on the fallout from losing it`s Empire`s crown jewel than containing Germany in the Caucasus? Also, wouldn`t the German victory in the East basically make Turkey swing nearly totally in the Axis direction, or at least make it finlandized?
 

Deleted member 1487

None on the issue of Latin America, but I do have a question.

If India had gained independence during the Russo-German war, then wouldn`t the UK be more focused on the fallout from losing it`s Empire`s crown jewel than containing Germany in the Caucasus? Also, wouldn`t the German victory in the East basically make Turkey swing nearly totally in the Axis direction, or at least make it finlandized?

They can do both. Invading Iran and managing some of the fallout to the West is part of that policy; they also have support from the US to help too, so they aren't shouldering the burden even mainly. They are providing the means of entry into the region to the US, but perhaps in the end I'm overdrawing US interest in being able to get the political will to intervene in the Middle East/Caucasus, while the Brits are too weak to do it. Turkey would be finlandized for sure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization
 

Deleted member 1487

Well doing a bit more reading, it seems the US might well not have the funds to go off getting involved in all this stuff against the Axis in the Caucasus and in China to a large degree. The loss of trade in Europe would be pretty economically damaging even if large corporations could still do business.

Spending by Britain and France during 1939-1940 helps, but then goes away; the US starts spending heavily on military rearmament/expansion, which helps the economy, but is financed by debt instead of British spending of its gold reserves. Congress is still pretty debt hawkish so while they will authorize spending to expand US defenses, they aren't keen on aggressive spending as LL never gets underway and the US public willing to support free money for threatened nations. Soviet spending in 1941-42 does help the US economy, but fears of Soviet collapse would then prevent LL shipments.

China would be an issue too as support for it would be extremely risky ITTL and Congress and the public wouldn't have gotten over the hump in terms of LL and know they wouldn't be paid back because China can't win on her own. They can buy, but they cannot get free stuff. Britain also would have issues I imagine.

So without US free spending then Indian trade goes up for grabs by the early 1940s, even if the US gives them most favored nation status, because the US cannot offer free stuff to the levels India and other nations need/want to keep out Axis trade. Britain would then start falling increasingly into the Axis orbit because of the need to maintain trade relations with Europe and Asia for their economy, especially once India becomes a free agent.

Thoughts on whether I should revise a bit the international situation?
 
Well doing a bit more reading, it seems the US might well not have the funds to go off getting involved in all this stuff against the Axis in the Caucasus and in China to a large degree. The loss of trade in Europe would be pretty economically damaging even if large corporations could still do business.

Spending by Britain and France during 1939-1940 helps, but then goes away; the US starts spending heavily on military rearmament/expansion, which helps the economy, but is financed by debt instead of British spending of its gold reserves. Congress is still pretty debt hawkish so while they will authorize spending to expand US defenses, they aren't keen on aggressive spending as LL never gets underway and the US public willing to support free money for threatened nations. Soviet spending in 1941-42 does help the US economy, but fears of Soviet collapse would then prevent LL shipments.

China would be an issue too as support for it would be extremely risky ITTL and Congress and the public wouldn't have gotten over the hump in terms of LL and know they wouldn't be paid back because China can't win on her own. They can buy, but they cannot get free stuff. Britain also would have issues I imagine.

So without US free spending then Indian trade goes up for grabs by the early 1940s, even if the US gives them most favored nation status, because the US cannot offer free stuff to the levels India and other nations need/want to keep out Axis trade. Britain would then start falling increasingly into the Axis orbit because of the need to maintain trade relations with Europe and Asia for their economy, especially once India becomes a free agent.

Thoughts on whether I should revise a bit the international situation?

Something will change in China if the Americans are feeling the pinch. It's the most expensive guerrilla conflict and America doesn't get all that much out of it if they do win (China will be so devastated that it will likely take years, if not decades to rebuild). If America played its cards right they could even start inching Japan away from the Axis too.

I know you've stated that neither side will back down, but it's a bloodbath for the Japanese and even they must realize that conquest isn't likely. You could maybe butter them up giving them a lot of coastal concessions and the North China plains in return for a gradual cessation of hostilities. Access to American goods might help sweeten the pot too.

But the Japanese are so crazy they might just keep fighting forever, who knows.
 
Does Roosevelt run again in 1944. Could we we have a Republican president?

I imagine by 1944 with Goering winding down the war and a far less scary persona than Hitler might be able to get the USA back distracted on its own issues. Is Goering and the Nazis as scary as post war 1947 Soviets? Probably not without some Berlin Airlift like confrontation. Many Americans are of German ancestry at that time so Germans are going to be less scary than Russians. Americans are a religious lot as well especially then, while Nazis are godless it wasn't exactly state policy like the Soviets. And giant corporations control much behind the scenes in both countries. So Nazis scare isn't likely to happen like Red scare. The German surface fleet is small. and Baku is a long way from Chicago.

So yes by 1945 in this TL (about a year of peace like conditions in Europe) the USA will become less tolerant of throwing money all over the globe vs. their own issues.

China is worth 100 American planes and pilots a year if that keeps them going and the Japanese occupied. The occasional Japanese terror bombing film with dead Chinese bodies piled up like below will keep up that level of effort. Probably not worth much more than that to most Americans at the time.

220px-Casualties_of_a_mass_panic_-_Chungking%2C_China.jpg
 

Deleted member 1487

Does Roosevelt run again in 1944. Could we we have a Republican president?

I imagine by 1944 with Goering winding down the war and a far less scary persona than Hitler might be able to get the USA back distracted on its own issues. Is Goering and the Nazis as scary as post war 1947 Soviets? Probably not without some Berlin Airlift like confrontation. Many Americans are of German ancestry at that time so Germans are going to be less scary than Russians. Americans are a religious lot as well especially then, while Nazis are godless it wasn't exactly state policy like the Soviets. And giant corporations control much behind the scenes in both countries. So Nazis scare isn't likely to happen like Red scare. The German surface fleet is small. and Baku is a long way from Chicago.

So yes by 1945 in this TL (about a year of peace like conditions in Europe) the USA will become less tolerant of throwing money all over the globe vs. their own issues.

China is worth 100 American planes and pilots a year if that keeps them going and the Japanese occupied. The occasional Japanese terror bombing film with dead Chinese bodies piled up like below will keep up that level of effort. Probably not worth much more than that to most Americans at the time.
Here's the thing, based on the more reading I'm doing of US politics and economics leading up to the war, they would have a hard time getting political support for intervention without the 'hardening' of the July 1940-May 1941 period; even getting help for China would be hard, though they wouldn't mind selling to the USSR and China. British-US relations will be more frosty and the US Congress will be more conservative in what they will do once the public feels Europe is a lost cause due to Britain dropping out of the war and then losing India.

The Nazis will be even scarier than the Soviets; in many ways they would be a far worse threat and IOTL there were efforts by the conservative US establishment to turn them into a threat as big as the Nazis. With Europe dominated and contributing to the Axis economies, not to mention the colonial systems, plus Japan dominated Asia trading, the Axis will control a much larger area of GDP that together is larger than the US. IOTL West Germany alone had a larger economy than the USSR by the 1970s, so it was not nearly the threat the Axis would be ITTL. Plus Germany had significantly more scientific potential under their control. Yes there are ethnic and political similarities with certain US groups, but the Nazis were not popular with German-Americans. It was the Nazis that destroyed the popularity of the German language and culture in the US after all.

So by 1942 I'm thinking about changing the US section of the TL to reflect that the US is more isolationist and interested in defending itself at home rather than intervening in China, the Middle East, South Asia, or the Caucasus. Even getting an alliance with Britain would probably not happen I'm thinking. So the Nazis, despite their weakening in the East, have a lot more resources to compete internationally, especially as the US doesn't ramp itself up as per OTL and remains significantly weaker due to the lack of harnessing their latent potential for political reasons. Meanwhile the Axis gets stronger due to their captive markets/trade blocs that are linked, even with the drain in Eurasia. Britain too is getting drained by trying to maintain its empire, but so too will Axis bloc powers like France and later the Netherlands and Belgium. Over the long run other markets are going to be available like India and Iran and potentially former colonized nations that become independent. South Africa is probably also going to be willing to work with Axis Europe.
 
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