Japan might drift into the Three Emperors orbit. They were patching up the Russian issue in the 1910s and there was a pro-German contingent in the government OTL; they might try and make it a league of Four Emperors.
"Three Emperors' League" monarchist bloc established before WWI
Japan might drift into the Three Emperors orbit. They were patching up the Russian issue in the 1910s and there was a pro-German contingent in the government OTL; they might try and make it a league of Four Emperors.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Japan cant; their financial system is FAR too tightly tied into the British banks and shipping capacity for them to viably take that approach without some serious long term reorienting. And Germany can't fill the good nearly as well.
If Germany is allied with Russia, what can A-H do?
You would still have problems with the Russian nationalities eg the Ukraine and Poland. These Russian nationalities were getting support from A-H.
BigBlueBox
Banned
This is impossible without another Great Power backing the Ottomans. Maybe Gladstone dies in an unfortunate accident and Disraeli takes Britain to war in support of the Ottomans.
I think you could see both nations get over their Balkan conflicts if they faced serious internal issues serious enough to refocus public attention. The Pan-Slavic movement (rivaling the Pan-German one) pushed much of the Russian positions. Austrian interest rest more on a complete lack of alternative options or theatres more than some kind of driven aim. She just wanted to avoid collapse or revolts to her Slavic minorities. As you say, I think the key to such a league working out, and even on the propensity for a war rest with the Turks. If we stick with the OTL Russo-Turkish 1877-8 war ...
Tweak German reactions to the Russian victory. Instead of Bismarck coming off as selling out Russia and doing a lot to change and wreck Russo-German feelings (Russians felt stabbed in the back after standing by during the Franco-Prussian War). Perhaps Bismarck alters his attempts to mediate and instead allows something much more like the Treaty of San Stefano to stand, thus forging renewed cooperation between the two giants. This is prior to the duel alliance, so Austria might remain outraged, but it seems little chance she would be able to find common ground with France. No one is going to formalize an alliance that only serves to push Germany and Russia even closer. A-H would have little choice but to join and at least voice her interests versus remain outside the league and see her influence trampled only further. If we are trying to push for a POD that also eventually leads to an OTL like war in Europe then perhaps the Germans back Russian dreams of the straights and the Brits start down a path of containment, scooping up what she can to encircle the league. This would be difficult to do, but I suppose a strong Japan ready to strike and distract Russia on a much larger scale in the East, coupled with some kind of Italian and Turkish buffet full of Austrian (Italian wish list) and Russian (Turkish wants) to take some kind of advantages of a Russo-German (and A-H) power. Most likely this conflict would never be started by the British anti-emperor alliance of course.
Tweak the OTL for a Turkish victory and I suppose you could see Russia turn East, but also become a bit more concerned about her internal stability in some of her minority regions. The lack of confidence influences accepting an alliance with the Germans and curtailing conflicts with the Austrians. A lingering Turkish presence in the Balkans perhaps gives the Austrians a focus on her versus conflict with Russia, opening up further cooperation for a longer lasting 3EL. The perceived threat of this 3EL eventually moves powers to form some kind of attempted containment alliance much like the one I mentioned earlier. With Turkish victory and with more generous French or British financial and military support, she presents a stronger ally than OTL, and the sum of all states in this alliance form enough of a bulwark to the 3EL that it presents at least something strong enough to avoid domination. Perhaps in a moment of internal division or strife within A-H or Russia, war does break out when some leaders sense a 'now or never' attitude toward the league.
That is along the lines of what I was going to suggest until I saw that you got there first.
It would be on their wish list, but as Germany only has a one-front war to prepare for they can afford a smaller army and a larger navy. If they do the British might not be able to afford their OTL army because more had to be spent on maintaining British sea superiority.
I'm not sure that a bigger French Army would be possible. IIRC the French had a bigger army per capita than Germany IOTL. The French started a big naval expansion and modernisation programme in 1912 IOTL, which IIRC would see it expand from 28 battleships in 1912 to 40 in 1920. The TTL programme is likely to be less ambitious because more will be spent on the French Army. I've already written that a bigger one isn't possible (unless they recruit more men from French Africa) but they might spend more on fortifications, machine guns and heavy artillery.
BooNZ
Banned
Russian aspirational goals in the Balkans were heavily suppressed while Nicholas followed his father's policy of avoiding foreign entanglements. As the Russian hawks gained influence from 1900, Russian foreign policy became more assertive and outright offensive following the fall of the Obrenovic regime in Serbia. If there is a Three Emperors League the Russians would be less inclined to abandon existing understandings with A-H regarding the Balkans and the A-H and Ottoman empires are likely to have an easier time. The Great Game - on.
Tovarich
Banned
But Disraeli's Conservatives wouldn't enter government just because Liberal PM Gladstone dies.
BigBlueBox
Banned
Disraeli was already in power at the time of the war, but Gladstone was instrumental in turning British popular opinion against the Ottomans.
Didn't he go on a long series of speeches slamming Disreali's foreign policy?
BigBlueBox
Banned
Exactly. Which is why I'm saying that if Gladstone was somehow removed from the picture before he made those speeches, Disraeli might have intervened in the Russo-Turkish war on behalf of the Ottomans.
Deleted member 114175
How would social and cultural trends develop differently, had the three monarchist empires survived and the Russian Revolution been averted?