Three Eagles Survive - Germany - Austria Hungary - Russia

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Let us just first reduce the complex reason behind why they were still alive, Austria-Hungary, Germany and Russia to some butterflies. Perhaps I could suggest no World War 1 which I admit was already highly unpreventable or the longevity of Frederick IV caused a whole chain of event that lowered the overall German aggressive position in the early 1900s and thus Europe largely maintained a status quo until now, 21st century.

Now regarding Frederick III longevity, I wish to propose several things.(perhaps this is already mentioned several times) Frederick III did not force Bismarck to resign and with the help of Bismarck, maintained the formation of alliance such after the Franco-Prussian war. France was largely isolated from the rest of Europe. Britain, quite friendly or neutral with the gentle Germany. (No big Wilhelm II naval invasion) Russia, more or less had maintained some good trade relation with Germany. Austria-Hungary, remained loyal German ally. The Ottoman Empire also survived, albeit with open question to their status and fate.

What do you think guys? Would such scenario be probable or the four major powers would just simply kill each other after some period of status quo?

There also some questions with the colonies and other things which I do not know how to address. If the three Empire would survive then what their 2010 world would look like? If Russia would survive then there must be some implication to Japan. Japan itself, without any World War 1, what path would they take? How do Germany keep its relation normal if it would support Austria in the Bosnia-Herzegovina Annexation crisis?

If you guys have any scenarios to propose on how to keep the Eagles survive I would also be very interested in hearing them so that we can all exchange ideas. If there's any mistake in my proposal please kindly forgive it.

Thank You


 
The ideas you already have are good. I suppose you could take steps to change Germany's attitude towards expansion, Europe and colonialism in the Empire's early years in order to prevent a tense diplomatic showdown in the 20th century. However European politics are going to remain competitive, with or without German participation, and eventually, ignorance towards European geopolitical affairs will occur at the expense of German interests.

The status of Austria-Hungary also needs to be questioned. With a calmer Germany, would the Dual Monarchy see itself as the German Empire's equal, subordinate, or superior?

Orienting Russia towards Asian expansion instead of European politics would also do great to insure Russia's stability. With conflicts far away from Saint Petersburg (and with their main competitor, Great Britain, on the other side of Europe), and with a bit of proactive political reform, you can remove many threats to Russian stability that existed in OTL's 20th century.
 
Simplest way if for Russia to win the Russo-Japanese War. Then Russian expansion into China will bring it into conflict with Britain and the USA and leave it no time for the Balkans as well as ensuring no Triple Entente.
 
The ideas you already have are good. I suppose you could take steps to change Germany's attitude towards expansion, Europe and colonialism in the Empire's early years in order to prevent a tense diplomatic showdown in the 20th century. However European politics are going to remain competitive, with or without German participation, and eventually, ignorance towards European geopolitical affairs will occur at the expense of German interests.

The status of Austria-Hungary also needs to be questioned. With a calmer Germany, would the Dual Monarchy see itself as the German Empire's equal, subordinate, or superior?

Orienting Russia towards Asian expansion instead of European politics would also do great to insure Russia's stability. With conflicts far away from Saint Petersburg (and with their main competitor, Great Britain, on the other side of Europe), and with a bit of proactive political reform, you can remove many threats to Russian stability that existed in OTL's 20th century.

Indeed you're right with the first point, Germany would need need to do something other than keeping itself silent throughout the century. The most probably conflict that I think may occur is the matter of Alsace and Lorraine. How do one settle the problem but still keeping Alsace and Lorraine as a part of Germany? (Assuming that Britain is still pro-Germany at some instance) Perhaps making France as the antagonist instead?

Regarding Austria, what would be their stance if by any reason Germany prefer not too push Russia too hard in the annexation crisis of Bosnia-Herzegovina? Would they be offended and suddenly turn side? Or will they just succumb to Germany?

Hmm I suppose we could avert the disastrous Russo-Japan War? What do you think?
Simplest way if for Russia to win the Russo-Japanese War. Then Russian expansion into China will bring it into conflict with Britain and the USA and leave it no time for the Balkans as well as ensuring no Triple Entente.

Very interesting scenario you got there, especially if China started to get involved.
 
Here's my two cents for each of the Eagles:

Russia - Lenin never leaves Switzerland or he's arrested while passing in Austria-Hungary. Nicky takes a more proactive role in governing the country while keeping a tight leash (at least) on Rasputin. A Constitutional compromise with the Duma could add some leverage as well.

Germany - Kaiser Bill keeps a closer eye over his generals. If WWI still starts, arranging a deal with Belgium for German troops to cross would help. That, or make decisive diplomatic efforts to "end the war by Christmas."

Austria-Hungary - The K.u.K high command waits longer for Bosnia's reaction and tries to subvert Russian intelligence efforts. That, or either Franz Ferdinand's "United States of Greater Austria" proposals of Karl's federal reforms are enacted earlier or at least successfully. In any case, the Federal Empire would likely still be called "Austro-Hungarian" for Augsleich-related and continuity purposes.
 
I'm not sure about Nicky taking a larger role in government. Frankly, he could have done with taking a smaller role, and giving more power to the Duma. The basic issue was that he possessed a 17th Century mindset to the role of Tsar, and so assumed that the people would never actually harm him, no matter what he did, for he was their 'little father', and the union of the Russian Church, State and Nation. Rasputin needs to go certainly.
 
I'm not sure about Nicky taking a larger role in government. Frankly, he could have done with taking a smaller role, and giving more power to the Duma. The basic issue was that he possessed a 17th Century mindset to the role of Tsar, and so assumed that the people would never actually harm him, no matter what he did, for he was their 'little father', and the union of the Russian Church, State and Nation. Rasputin needs to go certainly.
I agree with the above statement. Though for a more effective outcome, Russia's POD may have to be the 1905 Easter Massacre never happening.

And I'm a bit at a loss on what to exactly do with the Prussian generals plotting behind Wilhelm's back.
 
Several possibilities:

1. Have Friedrich III live on until 1915 or so and succeed with his (and his wife's) plans to liberalize the German Imperial Constitution.

2. Have his son Wilhelm II die at childbirth from a botched forceps maneuver that kills him instead of just maiming him. Have Prince Heinrich be Friedrich III's heir.

3. Have Alexander II of Russia not be assassinated in 1881. Have him live into the 1890s. Also have his oldest son Nicholas Alexandrovich not die of meningitis in 1865. Have him go ahead and marry Princess Dagmar of Denmark. No Nicholas II.
 
Britain, quite friendly or neutral with the gentle Germany. (No big Wilhelm II naval invasion) Russia, more or less had maintained some good trade relation with Germany. Austria-Hungary, remained loyal German ally.
IIRC weren't the Austro-Hungarian and British royal families on pretty friendly terms right before the war?


The most probably conflict that I think may occur is the matter of Alsace and Lorraine. How do one settle the problem but still keeping Alsace and Lorraine as a part of Germany? (Assuming that Britain is still pro-Germany at some instance) Perhaps making France as the antagonist instead?
Does it really need to be part of Germany in the first place? It was a fairly controversial decision to annex it, Bismarck and others were opposed to the idea because they knew it would lead to French revanchism so if we're tinking with things why not simply have the non-annexation win the day. You immediately take a lot of heat out of diplomatic relations.
 
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Does it really need to be part of Germany in the first place? It was a fairly controversial decision to annex it, Bismarck and others were opposed to the idea because they knew it would lead to French revanchism so if we're tinking with things why not simply have the non-annexation win the day. You immediately take a lot of heat out of diplomatic relations.

Trouble is that the non-annexationists (specifically Bismarck) had already won once - in 1866. It had taken him tremendous effort to get the King and Moltke to renounce the annexation of Saxony and a chunk of Austrian territory. They were utterly determined not to be "bilked" again in this way. Even if Bismarck had come out firmly against annexation (he didn't; at best he was ambivalent) his chances of winning the fight would have been slim. He was also trying to cajole the southern states (the ones most exposed to French attack) into joining the German Empire, and they were keen to acquire a buffer zone on the French border.

Interesting question is WI Bismarck loses his fight in 1866, so that Prussia annexes Saxony and (very roughly) the Sudetenland. If Wilhelm gets his pound of flesh then, he may be more persuadable five years later; but even then it's a long shot.

The other possibility is that the French agree more readily to the cession of A/L, but press for it to have autonomy as a member state of the NGC (and later the GE). Bismarck might have agreed, but it would require a huge swallowing of pride by France, and I'm not sure if any French politician would have dared take that course.
 
The other possibility is that the French agree more readily to the cession of A/L, but press for it to have autonomy as a member state of the NGC (and later the GE). Bismarck might have agreed, but it would require a huge swallowing of pride by France, and I'm not sure if any French politician would have dared take that course.

It's not really necessary that the French agree on cession or press on autonomy, autonomy could be granted without French involvement. And this should weaken France in teh question of Alsace-Lorraine. If, for whatever reason, there'd be a full member state, let's even say a republic, of Alsace-Lorraine is established in the 1880s, and this member state achieves different garrisoning terms, hence garrisoning troops on duty against the French are Southern-German and non-Prussian, IMHO by 1910 the Germans could risk accepting a referendum in Alsace-Lorraine which would likely result in only minor villages going back to France. Now question is whether the US and the British are that willing to give back Alsace to France if there was a democratic referendum which spoke against this.

Another idea: in a recent thread, a German-Russo alliance was discussed. And it was frequently stated that such an alliance would likely become rather hostile to Austria-Hungary, and therefore Romania, Serbia, Montenegro and Italy would be natural allies as well, whereas AH would ally with France. Nevertheless, such a system implies that AH is extremely vulnerable to the Russo-German alliance, hence AH would likely try to avoid war at all costs. I think they could succeed in that. So if there's war, it's Germany and Russia against an alliance without the Austrians, which therefore could survive. If Germany and Russia win that war (rather likely if the war is European-based, as could again be seen in that thread, but overall victory would be highly dependent on the alliance they face), they'd survive as well. So you could have all three Eagles surviving even in case of some alternate WWI.
 
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