Three deaths in 1558

So a question, say that in 1558 three very important t people die. They are Elizabeth Tudor dead June, 1558, Francis dauphin of France dead July 1558, and then Mary I of England dead 17 November, 1558. What happens next? Who succeeds Mary? Is it her cousin the queen of Scots or someone else? Does someone I. The royal French family attempt to marry Mary queen of Scots?
 
Well, Mary has 5 months between Elizabeth's death and her own to try and endorse her chosen heir. Is Philip around, what would his view on the succession be?

Wasn't Margaret Lennox in favour during Mary's reign? Margaret is English-born, is in England when Mary dies, and has two sons- this possibly advantages her over Mary Queen of Scots. She's probably also better connected amongst the English nobility given her time at court.

On the other hand, if the Queen of Scots is unmarried then numerous nobleman will be dreaming of marrying her and claiming the English throne (is Norfolk between his first and second wives at this point?). If she's married to a Frenchman (who? There's no one in the immediate royal family who's the right age) I imagine that might take away some of her domestic support. People would also be weighing up the pros and cons of a union with Scotland.

The Protestants have teenage Catherine Grey.

If you want a male candidate you have to stretch a little...
  • There's assorted Poles around, descendants of George of Clarence, would their uncle Archbishop Reginald apply influence on their behalf? But they're pretty lowly- they're not even titled.
  • There's Henry Hastings, at this stage heir to the Earl of Huntingdon, who is a descendant of George of Clarence via the Poles, and was suggested as a successor by the Protestant faction when Elizabeth was ill with smallpox in the 1560s. Though he doesn't appear to have particularly wanted the throne.
Both of those would be pretty flimsy. One could also skip over Margaret of Lennox in favour of her 13-year old son Darnley.
 
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Is there anything preventing Philip from marrying the queen of Scots?

The French would work assiduously against such a marriage- they're at war with Spain, those old fears of Habsburg encirclement- which would make it difficult for Mary to pursue the marriage if she's still in France.

If she's in Scotland I suppose it's possible- she considered Philip's son Don Carlos IOTL- but I expect the Protestant lords might be opposed to such a match.

Would a marriage to Philip harm Mary's domestic support in England?
 
Well, Mary has 5 months between Elizabeth's death and her own to try and endorse her chosen heir. Is Philip around, what would his view on the succession be?

Wasn't Margaret Lennox in favour during Mary's reign? Margaret is English-born, is in England when Mary dies, and has two sons- this possibly advantages her over Mary Queen of Scots. She's probably also better connected amongst the English nobility given her time at court.

On the other hand, if the Queen of Scots is unmarried then numerous nobleman will be dreaming of marrying her and claiming the English throne (is Norfolk between his first and second wives at this point?). If she's married to a Frenchman (who? There's no one in the immediate royal family who's the right age) I imagine that might take away some of her domestic support. People would also be weighing up the pros and cons of a union with Scotland.

The Protestants have teenage Catherine Grey.

If you want a male candidate you have to stretch a little...
  • There's assorted Poles around, descendants of George of Clarence, would their uncle Archbishop Reginald apply influence on their behalf? But they're pretty lowly- they're not even titled.
  • There's Henry Hastings, at this stage heir to the Earl of Huntingdon, who is a descendant of George of Clarence via the Poles, and was suggested as a successor by the Protestant faction when Elizabeth was ill with smallpox in the 1560s. Though he doesn't appear to have particularly wanted the throne.
Both of those would be pretty flimsy. One could also skip over Margaret of Lennox in favour of her 13-year old son Darnley.
I agree with you here, I think it depends entirely where Mary Queen of Scots is and when she comes back to the isles. I’d I,agine the French court loses interest in her once Francis dies. The neatest solution would be she marries Darnley would,it not?
 
The neatest solution would be she marries Darnley would,it not?

In theory, that would be a neat way to unite the Catholic candidates. But then you get to the minute details- are they co-monarchs? Who gets what powers? What's Darnley's position in Scotland?- which could wreck any compromise. And Darnley could ruin things anyway, if OTL is any indication.

Very important to note that Mary of Guise is still alive here- she'll obviously be a major advisor for her daughter (which could mean Mary Queen of Scots has trouble from the Scottish lords who clashed with her mother).
 
Hmm that's true, would it break down to war then?

Is there any chance Margaret of Lennox (or Margaret of Lennox acting on behalf of Darnley) can win over enough of the aristocracy/Mary's inner circle to get herself (or Darnley) installed on the throne before Mary Queen of Scots can really make a move? I'm not sure she can pull that off, and even if she did there'd still be the Protestants and the fact that aristocratic support can be rather fickle.
 
Is there any chance Margaret of Lennox (or Margaret of Lennox acting on behalf of Darnley) can win over enough of the aristocracy/Mary's inner circle to get herself (or Darnley) installed on the throne before Mary Queen of Scots can really make a move? I'm not sure she can pull that off, and even if she did there'd still be the Protestants and the fact that aristocratic support can be rather fickle.
Hmm very true, so I guess it really comes down to Mary I and who she thinks should succeed her, and whether she wants to stick with the true succession or not
 
Well at Mary's court following Elizabeth's death the battle will be one of the two senior royal women that Mary had treated with some favour (largely to irritate Elizabeth and her supporters) - Lady Frances Grey Duchess of Suffolk and Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox. Both women were intelligent and energetic and had the ability to move court factions to their side - if Mary names an heir then its quite honestly a toss up. She is in my view not going to name Mary Stuart (the death of the Dauphin not withstanding Mary is still likely to be in France and there will for at least a month or so after the dauphin's death a question of whether she is with child). Under Henry VIII's will Margaret has no claim and Frances' claim is a bit dubious (the will left the throne to the heirs of the body of the Lady Frances - presumably because the drafters couldn't imagine her and her sister outliving all three of Henry's children two of whom were much younger than the Brandon girls) - The key will be how malleable in religion Frances and her daughter Katherine are likely to be in order to convince the Queen that the Catholic faith will be maintained - Katherine for Philip is a better bet - he can marry her himself or to a member of his wider family - as in otl Philip's support went to the Protestant he thought he could influence in preference to a Catholic foreigner.
 
Well at Mary's court following Elizabeth's death the battle will be one of the two senior royal women that Mary had treated with some favour (largely to irritate Elizabeth and her supporters) - Lady Frances Grey Duchess of Suffolk and Margaret Douglas Countess of Lennox. Both women were intelligent and energetic and had the ability to move court factions to their side - if Mary names an heir then its quite honestly a toss up. She is in my view not going to name Mary Stuart (the death of the Dauphin not withstanding Mary is still likely to be in France and there will for at least a month or so after the dauphin's death a question of whether she is with child). Under Henry VIII's will Margaret has no claim and Frances' claim is a bit dubious (the will left the throne to the heirs of the body of the Lady Frances - presumably because the drafters couldn't imagine her and her sister outliving all three of Henry's children two of whom were much younger than the Brandon girls) - The key will be how malleable in religion Frances and her daughter Katherine are likely to be in order to convince the Queen that the Catholic faith will be maintained - Katherine for Philip is a better bet - he can marry her himself or to a member of his wider family - as in otl Philip's support went to the Protestant he thought he could influence in preference to a Catholic foreigner.

Hmm interesting, you don't think factions would conspire to have the two lines married to one another?
 
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