Thoughts on a Labour win in 1992

MrHola

Banned
Let’s throw some butteflies in the mix so that the number of seats are like this:

Labour: 302
Conservatives: 296
Liberal Democrats: 28
Others: 24

Now, I assume that Black Wednesday still happens; the pound is forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, making Labour unpopular. I assume that the Tories win in the next elections (can anyone suggest a date?). Who would become leader of the Conservatives, David Cameron? Any other effects?
 
Uh, David Cameron wasn't even in the Commons until 2001. At this point he'd be in his mid-twenties and probably still be working in the CRD.

In any case, by the figures you've given, Labour would be running a minority government. Which either means coalition with the Liberals, or, much more likely, another election soon afterwards.

If Black Wednesday happens between then and now, (And the general consensus last time this came up was that it was highly likely to whatever happened in '92) Labour are destroyed for a generation, possibly forever, and, depending on how exactly the numbers stack up from the '92 election, Chris Patten or Michael Heseltine become PM, in Hezza's case until his health gives out, in Patten's case as long as he wants. Assuming Labour can recover, Gordon Brown would probably become a mostly ineffectual Labour leader for two terms or so, (Think a Labour version of IDS or Hague) after which time possibly a second generation Blairite would take over. Who knows: Ruth Kelly could be PM by now...
 
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Would black Wednesday destroy labour so soon after they get into power? Could they not blame it on the previous tory regime?
 

Deleted member 5719

There would have been no Black Wednesday. Labour planned to devalue the pound as soon as they got into office, I heard Roy Hattersley say so on a radio programme a radio 4 programme once.

They would have got slated for this, but they wouldn't have lost billions defending the pound. Assuming the economy continues without any problems, I suspect the government would have lived it down by 97.

Even if the Libs had refused to countenance devaluation, as soon as Soros attacked, they would have folded.

We would almost certainly have rejoined the ERM at a lower rate, leading to.... THE EURO!!!!!!
 
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