Thoughts on a 1938 Czechoslovak war

I have heard it claimed that Hitler actively wanted a war in 1938 and was disapointed by Chamberlain's deal. I do not assert this is true.

However if Britain and France tried to stay with the Czechs I think Hitler loses over perhaps 2 years.

The Czechoslovaks have a good defence. I think they get support and supplies via their little entente allies Romania and Yugoslavia.

I know that in OTL Poland was given a little bit of Czechoslovakia but I do not think that chance is enough to persuade the Poles to go to war.

I believe that Britain would mount an effective blockade. Yes Italy may sell some stuff to the Nazis, as may Poland. I suspect that anybody trading with the Nazis will ask sell oil and other materials for as much as they can get.

I think that British Public opinion will be divided but will tolerate the war. There will be an amount of propaganda (some true) based on poor treatment of Germans, and maybe Slovaks.

A point would be reached where the Nazi state was overthrown.

I think that some kind of deal (rather less brutal than 45-6 in OTL) to some kind of population transfer.)

I think that the German Austrian state might be tolerated. I could see it becoming a semi Consitutional Monarchy (probably more likely under a Hapsburg)

There would not be an awareness of the true evil potential of the Nazis, they would not have reached the point of industrialed murder they did in OTL.

A lot of people in Britain and France would feel that they were tricked into war.


I do not know what would happen in Spain. The Nazis would be less able to support Franco but on the other hand Britain and France would likely be trying to be nice the Mussoline.

Any other thougths?
 

ZeusBlade

Banned
If France and Britain are at war with Germany then there will be a lot of pressure on Poland to join in on Allied side and unless Soviet Union makes a major move against Poland as part of pro-Czech alliance then Poles will strike at Germany once it is weakened.
Perhaps a deal would be made for referendum in tiny Zaolzie in exchange for Polish military support against Germany.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
This actually an interesting screnario. I'm not sure it was ever gamed out back in the day, and none of the modern sims cover it either AFAIK.

The Czech frontier was a very tough nut. Mostly comprised of mountain passes that had been fortified with heavy guns and bunkers, it would not have been easy for the Heer in 1941, in 1938 it would have been a real bitch.

The Germans were also nowhere near as strong during Munich as even a year later (ironically, this is true in large part due to the amount of equipment they captured in Czechoslavika and the many major arms and munition factories they took when the country fell to the Reich) The best German tank in Poland, and one of the best in France was the Pz-38(t) which was the Czech T-38 in different livery.
 
First of: For the date the Germans planned to use what was a relatively weak Luftwaffe in 1938 in an invasion of Czechoslovakia it was actually terrible weather and very stormy, so no blitzkrieg in the first 10 days of invasion.

2nd: There were poor commanders at the time, they'd been trained to quickly but within a year these problems had been sorted out (in 1939.)

3rd: The Germans would've found it difficult to invade around the previous German border due to fantastic fortifications, but not around the Austrian border.

4th: Britain didn't have a good army at all so would've been useless on land, but at sea obviously they'd have ruled against Germany. France would've invaded slightly then set up defense as in WWI most likely.

5th: There were only a couple of German regiments (or whatever you call them) in East Prussia, so under pressure from Britain and France it may invade East Prussia.

6th: The Soviets will invade Poland I bet but to use the excuse that they needed to stop it from falling to Germany and that the Soviets needed to get to Germany. Or they'll try to invade but due to the same reasons as the loss of the Winter War it may be forced to back of.
 
I do not see why Stalin would invade Poland. In OTL he did the pact a year later with the Nazis because he thought that the Western allies were trying to create a war between the Nazis and the USSR with the West watching.
 
I do not see why Stalin would invade Poland. In OTL he did the pact a year later with the Nazis because he thought that the Western allies were trying to create a war between the Nazis and the USSR with the West watching.

Which was to some extent true, the idea of Germany stopping the USSR expanding was a key reason for appeasement
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
I do not see why Stalin would invade Poland. In OTL he did the pact a year later with the Nazis because he thought that the Western allies were trying to create a war between the Nazis and the USSR with the West watching.

Have to agree with this, Common thread is that Stalin’s worst nightmare was a united Western Europe against him. I do not see him at this stage wanting to risk a war with Britain and France,

Other players that come into effect are the Other Balkan Nations.

If Poland can be kept away from the greed it had for a slice of Czechoslovakia and possibly support idea of getting something like eastern Prussia( even though it would be a difficult bit of land to hold )

Something like an attempt at Finland while they are occupied and even and extreme of the Baltic Nations would be more likely for Russia more gains with least risk.

The Power difference between German and France at this point was too much in Frances favour.

Airpower would be interesting only a small Number of the BF109s were of the very Dangerous Emil type The Greater number would have been D model 235 total built mostly B/C Models. The British side the Hurricane entered Service Dec 1937

But the French side the M.S 406 was only getting to Production stage so will have older fighter types very few Cannon armed, The Bomber situation is Different you will have fewer fights covering 2 fronts and a much poorer developed Fighter control
And one thing is some of these Old Bombers can take punishment as long as you do not have Cannon firing at them

Worse case for the Germans unless they can use the Austrian flank for a fast knock out blow when enemy has armour parity and superior antitank defence. ( not sure of the lessons of using the 88 is was in Doctrine yet from Spain) They are facing a war if Position and attrition, with enemies that can massively out produce them. They are not going to have the Industries of the Czech’s like OTL

Most of the German Armour is Panzer I and II’s not the sort of thing you want take against a Tank with a long 37mm Gun. Most common anti-tank for the Czech’s is a 47mm that the Germans noted as there most powerful dedicated anti-tank gun OTL.
Most common Tank on the Czech side is the T35 the T38 is just past trails

Panzer III and Panzer IV will be very few in Number.

If you have the Czech’s hold out for 30-60 days you have a Poland on one side fully mobilized and France on the other. And the Germans using up Fuel at a great rate, Can that be cut off ?.

I am thinking the Players that could be the Death Nail are Yugoslavia and Romania nether of which get on well with the other Trouble maker in this Hungry. Do not even have to do much fighting just close boarders to German Oil and other Imports. The British navy close down the Baltic. Hungarian Oil too tempting a target and very close to Polish Romanian and Yugoslavian boarders

Certainly believe the Polish once the smell Blood would be in Boots and all
 
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Even if its just Britain, France and CZ, Hitler loses, and probably in less than 2 years.
Germany was in critical need of imports and foreign currency in 1938. It survived due to robbing the CZ treasury, then later from getting supplies from Russia.

In 1938, Russia would have allied with France and CZ (Britain didnt actualy have a treaty comitting them to war, IIRC), so no raw materials from Stalin.

So a slow defeat of CZ, no resources, no CZ armaments, and Britain almost certainly joining in, and the German war economy is screwed. Even without Britain Germany is screwed - France can enforce a blockade, and at the very least Britain is churning out munitions for the allies.

Poland is the joker, if they decide to get Germany now while its easy Germany loses in a few months (or quite possibly sooner if the army mutinies). Quite possible, while the Polish government wasnt too clever, getting rid of Germany (especially if Britain and France would do something to sort out or buy off the CZ issues) would be just too good to pass by.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Since the Poles hated both the Czechs and the Germans, they'd stay out until the war is nearing it's end, and then join the winning side.
 
Since the Poles hated both the Czechs and the Germans, they'd stay out until the war is nearing it's end, and then join the winning side.

I think they'd join in rather earlier than that. Yes, they didnt like the Germans, the Czechs (or the Russians!), but Germany was major threat, CZ wasnt...
 

ZeusBlade

Banned
The Poles had a territorial dispute but certainly didn't "hate" the Czechs.
Germany was the historical enemy and obvious greater threat.
Remember that even when Poles took Zaolzie in OTL, later they formed part of Czech Air Force in exile on their territory.
 
I think they'd join in rather earlier than that. Yes, they didnt like the Germans, the Czechs (or the Russians!), but Germany was major threat, CZ wasnt...

Agreed. The Polish military government wasn't the best and brightest but they weren't complete morons. Czechoslovakia wasn't being run by a nationalist madman with a penchant for annexing neighbouring countries.
 

Makty

Banned
Czechs are ****ed.


- British would had sailed their fleets in circle and contribute nothing.
- The French would had been cowardly and camped at the Maginot waiting for the Germans.
- The Czechs would had done the same at the Sudetenland Fortifications.


Meanwhile the Czechs get the enormous buttplug of a lifetime when the Germans, Poles and Hungarians flank through Slovakia and Subcarpathia Ruthenia and cut the nation in half, German forces enter Prague a week later and force Beneš to sign an uncodnitional surrender.


The French would had whined like usual and state something like " C'est pas juste >_<"
Neville Chamberlain would state: "Oi Chap I believe we've been too hasty. Shall we forget this all happen?"

Chamberlain and Daladier fly to Berlin and sign a peace treaty which makes Hitler look like the victor and Czechslovak has been partitioned between Germany, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.

Of course there'll be a smashing party in London, where Neville doing his George III impression and wearing a lamp shade on his head, would state: "Peace in our time merrily folks! Peace in our time!" :D
 
I just played this scenario with HOI2 as the Czechs and got totally screwed over when I didn't meet the Munich demands. My country got instantly cut in half (and my forces as well), and lost in two months.

WW2 did start earlier though.
 
I just played this scenario with HOI2 as the Czechs and got totally screwed over when I didn't meet the Munich demands. My country got instantly cut in half (and my forces as well), and lost in two months.

WW2 did start earlier though.

Well I plaied tested this scenario in the Europa series of Games and kicked the Germans Buts in 2 out of 5 Games .
 
Germany in 1938 was militarily weak. It lacked enough equipment to arm the troops that had brought into service so that a lot of the reservist units lacked artillery, machine guns etc. A lot of the "new divisions had to make due with left over equipment from World War I.

The OST Wall come into being and it was perhaps more capable of handling a Polish offensive in 1938 than was the West Wall. Most of the German Military was against fighting a war and might be willing to overthrow Hitler as to prevent it.

IF the British and French stood with the Czechs then it was likely that Germany would lose.
 

terence

Banned
Alternatives.
1/. If Britain and France had stood firm and the USSR honoured the Russo-Czech mutual assistance pact (maybe just with air units as Poland wold not allow troops to cross their territory). And, the Poles were militant enough at the time that if Britain and France had hardballed, they would have thrown their lot in with the West and Slovakia is too afraid to seceed.
Result: Hitler backs down, perhaps gets removed by the Army.

2/. Britain and France stand firm, but Poland opts out. Nazis invade and occupy the whole of the Czech lands after a short, but difficult campaign (Slovakia seceeds). Britain and France still do not declare war. Nazis invade Poland the next year and no one cares, but they are less well equipped due to previous year's campaign.
W. Allies do not go to war in 1939 and wait until Germany and the USSR have slugged themselves to a standstill.

3/.Britain and France stand firm, but Poland opts out. Nazis invade and occupy the whole of the Czech lands (Slovakia seceeds). W. Powers declare war. A very long phoney war develops. Germany reluctant to invade to Poland while facing French in the West. British blockade hamstrings German Arms build up (No Ribbentrop-Molotov pact)--with only 18 long range and Atlantic U-boats in service, German counter-blockade ineffective.

Then we can go all sorts of ways. With no Nazi-Soviet pact, a Russian move into the Baltics or Finland would mean war with Germany and Poland and an early alliance of the Western Powers and Russia--so Poland changes sides.

A German attack in France would trigger a Polish attack in the East and vice versa.
 
I've always rather thought that the Soviets would significantly help the Czechs here.

While neither the Poles nor the Romanians were happy with the idea of the Russian army marching across their territory, if the EQUIPMENT was shipped through Poland (with some 'falling off the back of the truck' in payment), and the MEN marched through Romania, with little in the way of equipment, there would be little threat to either of those countries, and a deal could likely be reached (assuming that Stalin really wanted to help Czechoslovakia). While the Brits can't do much and the French likely won't (at least initially), I could certainly see Britain supplying the Soviets through the north...

Even if the Germans take Czechoslovakia, it's going to be tough for them, and they now have all of Europe (bar Italy) lined up against them. The Czech arms and gold will have been used up and the factories likely destroyed in the fighting. Not good for Germany.

When France sees how badly Germany does against Czechoslovakia, they might actually attack.


It is even theoretically possible that the League of Nations could be revived and strengthened, as there is now proof that going to war to stop aggressors is necessary sometimes...
 
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