Thought Experiment: How far East can you go before a "White Christian" nation would no longer be deemed a suitable candidate for EU expansion?

So I’ve created this alternate map of West Asia for this purpose. In this alternative world, by 1992 and up to the present day, we are left with a ‘Christian arc' of independent states stretching from Ukraine to Goa. The rest of the world is exactly the same, albeit with a few countries losing a small slither of their territories.

Europe Asia Map.png

Same as OTL:

Same as OTL but different heritage:
Azerbaijan - unlike OTL, this Azerbaijan is an oil-rich Turkic heritage Orthodox Christian nation

Countries not present in OTL:
1. Circassian Republic:
Non-Slav Christian nation, 98% Orthodox.
South Azerbaijan: Azeri heritage Christian Orthodox country, Iran-friendly with sizeable Iranian Jewish minority.
3. South Turkmen Republic: Turkmen heritage Christian Orthodox country, warm relations with Turkmenistan. Sizeable Jewish minority.
4. Ameraldstan: English speaking, Catholic and Protestant with mixture of Dutch, French, German and British heritage populations.
5. Grovesland: White Anglo Protestant nation, remnant of British Empire. Successful economically. Stable democracy with regular elections.
6.Goa: Independent Portuguese ex-colony, 95% Portuguese heritage Catholics. Remainder - Goan Christians.

GDPs (2010)
  • Azerbaijan ($290bn)
  • Ukraine ($136bn)
  • Ameraldstan ($40bn)
  • South Azerbaijan ($30bn)
  • Circassian Republic ($25bn)
  • Grovesland ($25bn)
  • South Turkmen ($18bn)
  • Goa ($15bn)
  • Georgia ($12bn)
  • Armenia ($9bn)

Some Important Points:
  • All are democratic, hold regular elections, have a multiparty system.
  • All have reasonably decent GDPs (2010) given sparse population sizes.
  • All desire a shift towards Europe (in varying degrees) - culturally, economically, militarily (and away from Russia in the case of 1, 2, 3, 4)
  • In this ATL Russia has, since 1990, threatened to invade, incorporate or interfere in the politics of 1, 2 and 3. There is a small minority of pro-Russian separatists in Circassia and Georgia
  • All other EU states accede as OTL up to 2022. Turkey continue to be refused entry same as OTL citing a variety of reasons. Same with Serbia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia who will be put on hold as ‘candidate countries.’
Not interested in getting preoccupied with these nations’ ATL backstories or how plausible their existence is when transposed on OTL.

I’m only concerned with one thing – the question in the title: Would there actually be a cut-off point where the EU would say, hang on a minute, this place is no longer geographically in Europe, doesn’t matter about its population , it wouldn’t make sense for this country to join our bloc?

Or would they just be warmly accepted as potential candidates/candidates due to being White* Christian and basically Europe-orientated?

*Using the term “White” in its very broadest sense and tied to Christianity and a general “European-ness.”
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Could wrap it around the world if a few things go different. Russia successfully democratizes, but 9/11 and Beslan, or similar incidents, still happen. Russia joins NATO and the potential enemies are the PRC, Iran, a theocratic Pakistan, etc.

Or an even simpler path, Russia democratizes which means means it basically changed sides in the Cold War, so it joins NATO for security against the still communist PRC.
Technically, the OTL EU has integral territory in South America. With that in mind, I don't see a reason that heavily Portuguese-influenced Goa can't be part of the EU. Frankly, the biggest stumbling block to its membership in the EU would be its relations with India--if it has good relations, then economically it will be much more heavily tied to India (indeed, EU regulations might actually hamper it). If it has bad relations...then similar issues to OTL Ukraine apply.

Realistically, you will probably find partisans for each of them in the EU advocating for their entry. IIRC, there are some Portuguese who want to prepare for a future entry of Cape Verde to the EU.
It depends on what point in time you are asking. For example OTL, in the 90's, they most certainly would be considered. In the 2020, almost certainly they would not. In the60's or 70's it would depend on their strategic importance, that is the main reason why Turkey was consired a likely candidate.

That said, it would also depend on their history or dpiplomatic relationship with Europe.
Honestly I can't see EU expanding more to the east than Azerbaijan. Too much unwanted involvement with Middle East politics, and in Goa's case, also with India.
Honestly I can't see EU expanding more to the east than Azerbaijan. Too much unwanted involvement with Middle East politics, and in Goa's case, also with India.
I'd agree, and even that's pushing things. With the Caucuses in the EU relations with the Russians and Turks would be interesting to say the least.