Thought experiment: Colonization of the Americas west-to-east

So the whole China/Japan/whoever discovering the Americas is a pretty popular trope in alternate history, but I'm not that interested in how it comes to happen--instead, I'm curious as to what the resulting North American situation will look like.

What areas will be contacted first, and which Native American societies will remain isolated the longest? Are any of the eastern tribes going to be in a better position to adapt to new technologies and diseases? (For example, the Powhatan confederacy of Virginia, who had the English land pretty much right on top of them OTL, will not have that same problem here...) Are there going to be major differences in Mesoamerica if contact is from the Pacific rather than the Atlantic?

Looking at the Pacific currents, it seems like landfall will most likely occur somewhere in OTL Washington or Oregon, with later expeditions following the California current south. In the medium to long term, will Asian explorers find it easiest to cross the continent by land, or sail around via Cape Horn, or cross through Central America?

Assume, just for sake of reference, that contact is occurring in about the same timeframe as OTL (1400-1600) and that the Europeans/North Africans/etc. are out of the picture.
 
This is an interesting thought experiment indeed. There will still be a sweep of disease across the Americas, just as in OTL. In this case, the farming societies of the East Coast and Mississippi will have longer to recover. In this case, domesticated animals will make a huge difference. As the horse (and possibly oxen) spread eastward, the farming societies will have recovered population-wise by the time the animals get there. With draft animals and rich land, population densities will skyrocket.

The reason this didn't happen in reverse (on the West Coast) OTL is because Pacific Northwest native societies were hunter/gatherer, not agricultural. Ironically, because the land was so rich, they didn't need to farm, and thus didn't adopt the horse and other domesticates. In any case, as population densities skyrocket across the Mississippi and East Coast and communication times are reduced due to horse transport, large confederations will likely be formed, much like the Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) OTL. These confederations will compete for the technology of the colonizers, and will play off each other.

Overall, this will lead to Native states far more able to compete with the colonizers on the East Coast. These will not be traditional European states, but rather loose confederations of allied tribes and connected leaders. Society will be dramatically changed. With horses/oxen to pull logs and help build (along with colonizing ship technology), larger sailed canoes will probably ply the Mississippi. This inter-region trade, which never existed OTL, will spur technological development.

Unfortunately, I don't know nearly enough about Mesoamerican societies to make an accurate judgement there. But this is an interesting idea. The backstory of the colonizers isn't important; the rough effect on Amerindian societies will be the same.
 
Assume, just for sake of reference, that contact is occurring in about the same timeframe as OTL (1400-1600) and that the Europeans/North Africans/etc. are out of the picture.

A book that includes this is "The Years of Rice and Salt", I reccomend it if you have read it already.

Basic premise is that the black plague wipes out Europe entirely. (The fact it makes no sense that it only was THAT virulent in Europe and not in Asia is lampshaded in the book in a later chapter taking place about what would be the 1930s. Noone came up with answer. :p )

But in this book, the Asians discover America from the west.

I think at one point a Japanese refugee flees over the Sierras and eastward, and brings with him knowledge and a gun, and the eastern tribes listen to him and get better prepared for when the inevitable main culture clash and expansions comes. My memory is a bit fuzzy one this section of the book.
 
So the whole China/Japan/whoever discovering the Americas is a pretty popular trope in alternate history, but I'm not that interested in how it comes to happen--instead, I'm curious as to what the resulting North American situation will look like.

What areas will be contacted first, and which Native American societies will remain isolated the longest? Are any of the eastern tribes going to be in a better position to adapt to new technologies and diseases? (For example, the Powhatan confederacy of Virginia, who had the English land pretty much right on top of them OTL, will not have that same problem here...) Are there going to be major differences in Mesoamerica if contact is from the Pacific rather than the Atlantic?

Looking at the Pacific currents, it seems like landfall will most likely occur somewhere in OTL Washington or Oregon, with later expeditions following the California current south. In the medium to long term, will Asian explorers find it easiest to cross the continent by land, or sail around via Cape Horn, or cross through Central America?

Assume, just for sake of reference, that contact is occurring in about the same timeframe as OTL (1400-1600) and that the Europeans/North Africans/etc. are out of the picture.

The geographic difference between the West and East coast of North America is the presence of the Rocky Mountains as a significant barrier to settlement (as opposed to the Appalachians, which were only a minor barrier), and the lack of major waterways that flow past the Sierra Nevada range.

On the East Coast, the Great Lakes system allowed the establishment of trading posts that invited settlement of the Old Northwest. The Mississippi/Ohio system enabled farmers to get their goods to market in the early 19th century.

The West Coast has only two major river systems that flow very far inland: The Columbia and Colorado Valleys. I'd expect that Asian settlement of the Americas, therefore, would settle California and the coastal parts of Washington and Oregon, and British Columbia. Subsequent settlement would follow the Columbia up through Idaho and western Montana, and to a lesser extent the Colorado up through the South-West.
 
The geographic difference between the West and East coast of North America is the presence of the Rocky Mountains as a significant barrier to settlement (as opposed to the Appalachians, which were only a minor barrier), and the lack of major waterways that flow past the Sierra Nevada range.

On the East Coast, the Great Lakes system allowed the establishment of trading posts that invited settlement of the Old Northwest. The Mississippi/Ohio system enabled farmers to get their goods to market in the early 19th century.

The West Coast has only two major river systems that flow very far inland: The Columbia and Colorado Valleys. I'd expect that Asian settlement of the Americas, therefore, would settle California and the coastal parts of Washington and Oregon, and British Columbia. Subsequent settlement would follow the Columbia up through Idaho and western Montana, and to a lesser extent the Colorado up through the South-West.

Settlement will indeed probably be slower because of the physical barriers. In fact, I'd expect colonizers to try and find a way to cross into the Caribbean as quickly as possible. The sugar and cotton possibilities of the Antilles are endless, and these were the real moneymakers for the first two hundred years of OTL colonization. I'd expect to see colonizers competing for the best crossing spots on the Isthmus of Panama. Meanwhile, the Rockies being what they are, colonization of the Great Plains will likely be delayed 50-100 years from the first contact as compared to OTL (from 1492-1850ish OTL, so about 350 years). What do you think would be the impact on Native societies?

We need to get Nine Fanged Hummingbird in here to tell us about Mesoamerica. I'd be interested to hear what he said.
 
This is an interesting thought experiment indeed. There will still be a sweep of disease across the Americas, just as in OTL. In this case, the farming societies of the East Coast and Mississippi will have longer to recover. In this case, domesticated animals will make a huge difference. As the horse (and possibly oxen) spread eastward, the farming societies will have recovered population-wise by the time the animals get there. With draft animals and rich land, population densities will skyrocket.

There's the possibility of introduced crops, too--particularly wheat and rice.

The reason this didn't happen in reverse (on the West Coast) OTL is because Pacific Northwest native societies were hunter/gatherer, not agricultural. Ironically, because the land was so rich, they didn't need to farm, and thus didn't adopt the horse and other domesticates. In any case, as population densities skyrocket across the Mississippi and East Coast and communication times are reduced due to horse transport, large confederations will likely be formed, much like the Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) OTL. These confederations will compete for the technology of the colonizers, and will play off each other.

Overall, this will lead to Native states far more able to compete with the colonizers on the East Coast. These will not be traditional European states, but rather loose confederations of allied tribes and connected leaders. Society will be dramatically changed. With horses/oxen to pull logs and help build (along with colonizing ship technology), larger sailed canoes will probably ply the Mississippi. This inter-region trade, which never existed OTL, will spur technological development.

The number of rivers flowing west to east should make expansion across the Great Plains relatively easy, once the Rocky Mountains have been crossed. The deserts of the Southwest might be more of a barrier. Going east cross-continent might be more difficult beyond the Mississippi, since you'd have to sail upstream along the Ohio or Tennessee rivers. Depending on sailing technology, it might be easier to build ships in *New Orleans to sail up the East Coast--which would also put you in contact with the Caribbean islands, maybe for the first time.

Unfortunately, I don't know nearly enough about Mesoamerican societies to make an accurate judgement there. But this is an interesting idea. The backstory of the colonizers isn't important; the rough effect on Amerindian societies will be the same.

Though I've mostly glossed over it, the nature of the colonizers probably will have some role in contact with the Mesoamericans--how much of an aberration were the OTL conquistadors, anyway? It's hard to say without a number of analogous examples, and there's none that I can really think of offhand.


A book that includes this is "The Years of Rice and Salt", I reccomend it if you have read it already.

Basic premise is that the black plague wipes out Europe entirely. (The fact it makes no sense that it only was THAT virulent in Europe and not in Asia is lampshaded in the book in a later chapter taking place about what would be the 1930s. Noone came up with answer. :p )

But in this book, the Asians discover America from the west.

I think at one point a Japanese refugee flees over the Sierras and eastward, and brings with him knowledge and a gun, and the eastern tribes listen to him and get better prepared for when the inevitable main culture clash and expansions comes. My memory is a bit fuzzy one this section of the book.

I have read The Years of Rice and Salt, although in that scenario the (Firanji?) Muslim powers are exploring the East Coast in roughly the same timeframe, which is an additional factor. In any case, the maps included with the book seem to trend towards space-filling empires at most points; I think most of North America gets lumped together as "Houdensaunee," which I think might be a bit optimistic even with the intervention of the Japanese wandered in the scene you mention...
 
A lot will depend on how many powers are involved and how the place is divided up. One of the things that caused East-West settlement is that the Spanish were blocking the English from going South.

In this scenario, I imagine the lure of gold from Mesoamerica might take a lot of would-be settlers going there looking for riches. Latter waves of immigrants would then be drawn to those cities.

It's also not just the Rockies blocking in the Westcoasters here - even if you pass the Rockies you've then got the Great American Desert, which will likely last longer due to the lack of population in the area. I imagine settlement East of the Desert will first happen from Asian immigrants crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and then gradually migrating up the coast.

Once an alt-New Orleans is founded, you might get the first pioneers crossing the mountains to do fur-trapping in the upper tributaries of the Mississippi. Fur outposts would then become trading cores which bring settlers from the Gulf Coast.

I generally think this longer period of settlement would allow the Plains Native Americans greater time to recover. They would probably become integrated and Sinofied in an interesting culture mix in the Mississippi basin. East coast Natives could probably last long enough to get a leap forward in technology - eventually they'd probably succumb to the conquering power, but it might be more like the Princely States in India.
 
I generally think this longer period of settlement would allow the Plains Native Americans greater time to recover. They would probably become integrated and Sinofied in an interesting culture mix in the Mississippi basin. East coast Natives could probably last long enough to get a leap forward in technology - eventually they'd probably succumb to the conquering power, but it might be more like the Princely States in India.

Exactly. European colonization in Asia was so fundamentally different from that in North America that I'm still shocked when textbooks lump them together. In the Americas, the policy was "destroy-and-replace" with regards to Native culture. In Asia, the policy was "subvert-and-control". Very different styles, very different results. You could see a West Coast "destroy-and-replace" style colonialism, but an eastern "subvert-and-control" sort of system.
 
Settlement will indeed probably be slower because of the physical barriers. In fact, I'd expect colonizers to try and find a way to cross into the Caribbean as quickly as possible. The sugar and cotton possibilities of the Antilles are endless, and these were the real moneymakers for the first two hundred years of OTL colonization. I'd expect to see colonizers competing for the best crossing spots on the Isthmus of Panama. Meanwhile, the Rockies being what they are, colonization of the Great Plains will likely be delayed 50-100 years from the first contact as compared to OTL (from 1492-1850ish OTL, so about 350 years). What do you think would be the impact on Native societies?

I think a Nicaragua transshipment point is more likely than a Panama one; just cross a very tiny isthmus in Nicaragua and you've entered a freshwater river that flows down to the Caribbean. It's also a shorter trip from California to the Nicaragua point than it is to Panama.
 
What happens in Mesoamerica very much depends on the exact year they come. The political situation changed greatly over centuries, like in any other part of the world with a patchwork of kingdoms and the like, you can't just assume that it was all the same in a 200-year period.
 
Exactly. European colonization in Asia was so fundamentally different from that in North America that I'm still shocked when textbooks lump them together. In the Americas, the policy was "destroy-and-replace" with regards to Native culture. In Asia, the policy was "subvert-and-control". Very different styles, very different results. You could see a West Coast "destroy-and-replace" style colonialism, but an eastern "subvert-and-control" sort of system.

Genreally agree, but I think it might be more of a matter of effects than policy. The Spanish areas in the America were certainly a matter of subverting and controlling. British and French policy in North America was also somewhat like that, and was very similar to what the British did in Southern Africa. Its just the thinness of the population and the disease aspect wiped them out in the American case.
 
What happens in Mesoamerica very much depends on the exact year they come. The political situation changed greatly over centuries, like in any other part of the world with a patchwork of kingdoms and the like, you can't just assume that it was all the same in a 200-year period.

I'm aware of that; I'm just trying to encourage speculation in somewhat broad strokes rather than getting bogged down in details. :eek:

Is there any particular date that you think would be most interesting? Otherwise, what were the westernmost centers of power in the region over that period? I recall maps showing the Aztecs with some sort of border on the Pacific; were there major settlements there before them, or was it more of a peripheral area?

As far as contact goes, what sort of things are going to attract the attention of explorers down from California? Assuming that they still get hit with a similar cocktail of diseases, are the Mesoamerican cultures going to have any advantages or disadvantages compared to their OTL counterparts? A *Cortez figure (if one exists) probably won't have Cuba as a nearby base of operations if he comes from the Pacific--in fact, his supply lines in general will probably be much longer...
 
The sugar and cotton possibilities of the Antilles are endless,

Hrm. Don't forget that Taiwan alone produced more sugar than all of the Carribeean well into the 18th century. And the trnasport crosts here, which would netail shipping it across a continent or around the CApe of Good Hope, are enormous.
 
Hrm. Don't forget that Taiwan alone produced more sugar than all of the Carribeean well into the 18th century. And the trnasport crosts here, which would netail shipping it across a continent or around the Cape of Good Hope, are enormous.

You'd just use a wagon road across Nicaragua or Panama, no? Alternately you can sell it to European markets.
 
One supposes that China or Japan would import horses? But would there be a great influx, or would there be trading?
 
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