Thomas Jefferson, 1st US President

(Inspired by an old Futurama rerun :D)

With a POD after the signing of the Decleration of Inpendence on July 4 1776, make Thomas Jefferson the 1st president of the United States instead of George Washington.
 
Seems like a narrow window of opportunity... I'd say you're quite likely not to even end up with a "President of the United States" if Washington isn't at the Constitutional Convention in 87, and yet he has to be out of the picture by the 89 election, or he's the winner.
Even then, Jefferson was not in the running in 89 in OTL. And the Democratic Republicans didn't exist yet.
 
Did George Washington have any health problems that could have killed him between the ratification of the Constitution and the first Presidential election?

Could John Adams have said or done things that would have lost him votes?
 
Did George Washington have any health problems that could have killed him between the ratification of the Constitution and the first Presidential election?

Fall off of a horse, malaria maybe, gangrene. This is the 18th century, shit happens. It would have to happen directly after the Constitutional Convention, and before the election, and probably after ratification, in order to maintain the office of the Presidency.

Could John Adams have said or done things that would have lost him votes?

You need to have Jefferson be in the country. He was still the American minister to France during the first Presidential contest.

So if you have Washington dead, and Jefferson come back, then maybe you could work this out. I don't think that Adams was all that appealing of a candidate, and Jefferson was the author of the Declaration of Independence, so I think that if he was back from France then he could be President. I would say that you would have serious problems nearly immediately with President Jefferson's administration. Jefferson was very much a states' rights guy, even given his use of extra-constitutional powers during his administration. I don't think he would support Hamilton's financial plan, and he would pursue good relations with the French. I think the result would probably be a very, very brutally partisan environment (even more-so than OTL), though Jefferson may be able to survive the 1792 election.

Without Washington to push Hamilton's policies, then I think that your going to have a hamstrung government. Federalists (or proto-Federalists) will dominate the Congress, but Jefferson will mostly oppose them. Hamilton will probably be in Congress, rather than in the Cabinet, and end up leading the opposition. Adams will not like what is happening and could bow out in '92 and instead be appointed to the Senate.

I think that you will end up with much more fractured American politics, and the possibility that another Constitutional Convention needs to occur. Or Alexander Hamilton pulling a Napoleon. Actually, I think this is rather likely with a Jefferson Administration 1788-96 (and possibly longer).

The Whiskey Rebellion happens anyway, Hamilton raises an Army (an extra-legal Army mind you) to crush it (claiming some kind of legal justification through a most creative reading of the Constitution) and crushes the rebellion. Then Hamilton wheels the Army around and marches on Philadelphia in order to end the rule of the "Jacobins". There is huge public support for Hamilton's move, particularly from the moneyed elite who resent Jefferson's economic policies and fear his pro-French attitudes (the Terror is happening in France as the Whiskey Rebellion is crushed).

Hamilton declares himself "Acting President" or something and seeks to unilaterally add a few new amendments to the Constitution. The result is that Hamilton basically ends up a sort of Cromwell figure, ruling like a King in an imaginary republic. His economic policies curry favor with the moneyed elite who OTL supported the Federalists, and his anti-French policies, which include war against the French (which ends up really being war against their Spanish allies- to gain Louisiana and Florida), curry popular favor.

Hamilton is able to maintain his rule for a number of years, eventually calling for a new Constitutional Convention that passes a Constitution that is much more "stable" than the old one. This constitution features Hamiltonian favorites like life-terms for Senators and the President, and an emasculated House. Since Hamilton is already President, its rather conveinent. The state governments generally accept the new Constitution and the Senators are appointed. Though some rail against the system, in general it is accepted by those who hold power within society.

The capital will definitely stay in Philadelphia.
 
Fall off of a horse, malaria maybe, gangrene. This is the 18th century, shit happens. It would have to happen directly after the Constitutional Convention, and before the election, and probably after ratification, in order to maintain the office of the Presidency.



You need to have Jefferson be in the country. He was still the American minister to France during the first Presidential contest.

So if you have Washington dead, and Jefferson come back, then maybe you could work this out. I don't think that Adams was all that appealing of a candidate, and Jefferson was the author of the Declaration of Independence, so I think that if he was back from France then he could be President. I would say that you would have serious problems nearly immediately with President Jefferson's administration. Jefferson was very much a states' rights guy, even given his use of extra-constitutional powers during his administration. I don't think he would support Hamilton's financial plan, and he would pursue good relations with the French. I think the result would probably be a very, very brutally partisan environment (even more-so than OTL), though Jefferson may be able to survive the 1792 election.

Without Washington to push Hamilton's policies, then I think that your going to have a hamstrung government. Federalists (or proto-Federalists) will dominate the Congress, but Jefferson will mostly oppose them. Hamilton will probably be in Congress, rather than in the Cabinet, and end up leading the opposition. Adams will not like what is happening and could bow out in '92 and instead be appointed to the Senate.

I think that you will end up with much more fractured American politics, and the possibility that another Constitutional Convention needs to occur. Or Alexander Hamilton pulling a Napoleon. Actually, I think this is rather likely with a Jefferson Administration 1788-96 (and possibly longer).

The Whiskey Rebellion happens anyway, Hamilton raises an Army (an extra-legal Army mind you) to crush it (claiming some kind of legal justification through a most creative reading of the Constitution) and crushes the rebellion. Then Hamilton wheels the Army around and marches on Philadelphia in order to end the rule of the "Jacobins". There is huge public support for Hamilton's move, particularly from the moneyed elite who resent Jefferson's economic policies and fear his pro-French attitudes (the Terror is happening in France as the Whiskey Rebellion is crushed).

Hamilton declares himself "Acting President" or something and seeks to unilaterally add a few new amendments to the Constitution. The result is that Hamilton basically ends up a sort of Cromwell figure, ruling like a King in an imaginary republic. His economic policies curry favor with the moneyed elite who OTL supported the Federalists, and his anti-French policies, which include war against the French (which ends up really being war against their Spanish allies- to gain Louisiana and Florida), curry popular favor.

Hamilton is able to maintain his rule for a number of years, eventually calling for a new Constitutional Convention that passes a Constitution that is much more "stable" than the old one. This constitution features Hamiltonian favorites like life-terms for Senators and the President, and an emasculated House. Since Hamilton is already President, its rather conveinent. The state governments generally accept the new Constitution and the Senators are appointed. Though some rail against the system, in general it is accepted by those who hold power within society.

The capital will definitely stay in Philadelphia.

Cool. Very cool

Maybe I'll do a TL for this...maybe.
 
I think that we can generally agree that the only way for Washington to NOT become president is if he dies from some natural causes or the like between the Constitutional Convention and the 1st election. Granted that, the front-line choice comes down to Adams vs. Jefferson. There will be little sectional support for either side this early, and with some back-room dealing, or just blind luck, Jefferson will become President.

The question is: what happens then?

I would say that you would have serious problems nearly immediately with President Jefferson's administration. Jefferson was very much a states' rights guy, even given his use of extra-constitutional powers during his administration. I don't think he would support Hamilton's financial plan, and he would pursue good relations with the French.

Well, to most people France was a wonderful country: the most enlightened one in Europe until the Terror, and this did not really start reeling until well into Jefferson's administration.

Jefferson, of all people, knew how important compromise was to the creation of the country, and therefore how important it would be once the government had been formed. He also (to some extent) admired John Adams, who would be the vice-president, and so the administration would run significantly similarly to Washington's at first.

Without Washington to push Hamilton's policies, then I think that your going to have a hamstrung government. Federalists (or proto-Federalists) will dominate the Congress, but Jefferson will mostly oppose them. Hamilton will probably be in Congress, rather than in the Cabinet, and end up leading the opposition.

Considering how important a role Hamilton had played at the Constitutional Convention, and considering the lack of other significant banking ideas, Jefferson would go along with Hamilton, if only because there were no alternatives. Also, remember that the Federalist/Democratic Republican split was in effect due to the personality and idea differences between Jefferson and Hamilton - this difference will in fact be downplayed with Hamilton serving in the cabinet of Jefferson (and he will: because of necessity, Jefferson will try to create a cabinet from the whole country).

The next leading Federalist in Real-TL was Adams, but as Vice-President in a time of great trials he would neither openly nor covertly support anything against Jefferson.

What will be interesting is the election of 1792. Surely Jefferson will have done a good job, but with increasing unrest in France and a lack of unification as had by Washington, there is no guarantee that Jefferson will be re-elected. In fact, probably he and Adams will switch places, thus starting a precedent of 1-term Presidents. Thus, there can be no 'Virginia Dynasty', and indirectly, New England will hold onto more power - therefore there will be no major push for a Federalist Party, and the country will pass directly from the pre-party system to the era of good feelings; to unravel sometime in the 1810's-20's.

The capital will definitely stay in Philadelphia.

As part of the great compromise of 1790, a new capital city will be built at Head of Elk on the Chesapeake, so that by 2000 the city (called the District of Washington, duh) will connect the Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers across the states of Maryland and Delaware, and the municipality will be the largest on the globe (;)).
 
IIRC Washington was not all that eager to be President in the first place, he had been hoping to retire from public life. If Washington ultimately refuses to come out of retirement no matter how much the people want him to be President then that might give Jefferson a fairly good shot at the Presidency.
 
I think that we can generally agree that the only way for Washington to NOT become president is if he dies from some natural causes or the like between the Constitutional Convention and the 1st election. Granted that, the front-line choice comes down to Adams vs. Jefferson. There will be little sectional support for either side this early, and with some back-room dealing, or just blind luck, Jefferson will become President.

The question is: what happens then?

I think I answer that question quite convincingly.

Well, to most people France was a wonderful country: the most enlightened one in Europe until the Terror, and this did not really start reeling until well into Jefferson's administration.

The French executed their King (1792), and thus got all of Europe going to war with them. While Americans may agree with them in spirit, the fact is that the US is not in a place where it can contemplate going to war with every major power in Europe. Plus, with the declaration of the French Republic legally ends the Franco-American alliance, since the alliance was with the Kingdom not the Republic, of France. The Terror badly scared the American elite, and visions of guillotines in American cities were used by the Federalist press just as effectively as the Democratic-Republicans used the specter of a Hamilton-Adams monarchy.

Jefferson, of all people, knew how important compromise was to the creation of the country, and therefore how important it would be once the government had been formed. He also (to some extent) admired John Adams, who would be the vice-president, and so the administration would run significantly similarly to Washington's at first.

What gives you this idea? Jefferson was almost immediately in the opposition against Washington's (that is Hamilton's) policies.

Considering how important a role Hamilton had played at the Constitutional Convention, and considering the lack of other significant banking ideas, Jefferson would go along with Hamilton, if only because there were no alternatives. Also, remember that the Federalist/Democratic Republican split was in effect due to the personality and idea differences between Jefferson and Hamilton - this difference will in fact be downplayed with Hamilton serving in the cabinet of Jefferson (and he will: because of necessity, Jefferson will try to create a cabinet from the whole country).

Jefferson and Hamilton had two very different visions of what the United States was, and should be. That is why they became the main leaders of the Federalists and Democratic-Republicans. Hamilton's vision of a urban, industrial future, with a strong federal government, was fundamentally opposed by Jefferson's vision of an rural, agarian republic with a weak federal government.

Hamilton's financial policies were designed to establish the federal government as the strong national government that he envisioned. That is why he was so strongly opposed by Jefferson and Madison. Therefore, I do not believe that there is any possibility that Jefferson would pursue anything remotely like Hamilton's financial policies.

They were vehement enemies in Washington's cabinet, and in this ATL they would be, if it were possible, more bitter enemies.

The next leading Federalist in Real-TL was Adams, but as Vice-President in a time of great trials he would neither openly nor covertly support anything against Jefferson.

Adams was a great patriot, and I would say that he, like Washington, was truly a man above factions. Having said that, also like Washington, his ideas did lay in the direction of the more Hamiltonian vision of a strong national government and strong national defense. In OTL he was repelled by the partisan political warfare, and deeply hurt by Jefferson's pet editors' attacks on him. In this TL he will probably retire in 1792, rather than continue to participate in a Jefferson Administration whose policies he is increasingly at odds with. He may go into the Senate, where I think he would become an enemy of the Jefferson's faction, and an (unwilling) supporter of the Hamilton-led opposition.

What will be interesting is the election of 1792. Surely Jefferson will have done a good job, but with increasing unrest in France and a lack of unification as had by Washington, there is no guarantee that Jefferson will be re-elected.

I don't think that he will lose the election. Its a total toss-up for who would become President, but I would count out Adams. He won't have Hamilton's support, and Jefferson will be running again. I don't think that Jefferson would have done anything glaringly anti-Federalist, and so without a big-name candidate who Hamilton believes that he can control, Jefferson wins the '92 election.

In fact, probably he and Adams will switch places, thus starting a precedent of 1-term Presidents. Thus, there can be no 'Virginia Dynasty', and indirectly, New England will hold onto more power - therefore there will be no major push for a Federalist Party, and the country will pass directly from the pre-party system to the era of good feelings; to unravel sometime in the 1810's-20's.

The French Revolution spawned a series of wars known as the "French Revolutionary Wars". Part of these wars included both British and French attacks on American shipping, something that caused deep divisions in the United States. OTL Hamilton's Federalists pushed for war with France in Adam's only term, but Adam's sacrificed his political career in order to prevent war with the United States.

Jefferson's election to the Presidency will not butterfly away the French Revolutionary Wars. So we can expect that the British and French attacks will influence the course of events ATL.

Hamilton felt very strongly about where he wanted the United States to go. Jefferson's policies as President would be in direct opposition to this vision. So I think we can expect a 1790's that would, if anything, be even more viscously partisan.

As part of the great compromise of 1790, a new capital city will be built at Head of Elk on the Chesapeake, so that by 2000 the city (called the District of Washington, duh) will connect the Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers across the states of Maryland and Delaware, and the municipality will be the largest on the globe (;)).

The "great compromise" was between Hamilton and Jefferson. It was "great" because they were very committed to its total passage (hamilton) and it total defeat (jefferson).

Look up the politics of the 1790's. Then imagine that the man who most held largely responsible for making the United States a reality (Washington) wasn't participating in it. You'll see that my scenario is probably pretty plausible.
 
Another interesting point; if Washington is not President we might not see the informal limit of two terms being set on the Presidency. Especially if politics becomes more divisive than OTL we might well see Jefferson and his successors decide to run for as many terms as they can.
 
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