I've been thinking about this for a long while, but recent events sent me back to have a better look at the damn thing.
To best understand the ramifications of the POD, let's go back to history class: it's 1542. Scotland is paying the price for not joining England in rejecting Rome, and the armies of Henry VIII have humiliated the country, after a bloody defeat at Solway Moss. James V has just left the building, so the crown of Scotland falls to his days-old daughter, Mary.
The leading figures in the Scottish political scene at the time are:
* Marie of Guise, Queen Mother / Dowager and daughter of the House of Guise.
* Cardinal David Beaton, Archbishop of Edinburgh and oft-ambassador to France (arranged the marriage of James and Marie, for example).
* James Hamilton, Earl of Arran, first in line to the throne in the event of Mary's death. A Protestant and favourable to the English, IOTL he was made Regent, and aided in the peace treaty signing Mary over to the English (later broken).
* Matthew Stewart, Earl of Lennox, second in line to the throne in the event of Mary's death. A Catholic and figurehead of his faith's followers in the nobility, it seems fairly likely that he could raise considerable support in the event that he challenged Arran's succession to the throne.
Now, like it says in the Earl of Arran's biography up there, part of the peace treaty forced on the Scots after James' death concerned the betrothal of Mary to Prince Edward of England, with the obvious intent of binding Scotland's lands into England over the next few generations. IOTL this was repudiated by the Scottish Parliament, eight months later.
But what if they didn't?
Well, this is a daft question, on the face of it. Of course the Scots would repudiate a treaty that sold their Queen over the border, and turned them into a second Wales. No amount of incentive could persuade them to surrender the symbol of their country to... Englishmen.
So let's take the choice out of their hands. I propose a PoD where Marie of Guise insists on staying with her husband as he sickens and dies - fairly reasonable, even if it is dangerously close to the front, but it's difficult to argue with an incredibly powerful and distraught heavily pregnant woman. Solway Moss goes off as per OTL, but during the course of the battle it is pointed out to the English commander, Thomas Warton, that both the King of Scotland and his future heir lie a day or two's march away. Imagine the glory for England!
His fellow commanders, the Musgroves, attempt to convince him that this is madness. Such a plan is far too risky - the men need time to recover from the battle, they don't need to go marching off on some wild goose chase!
Well, it's my timeline, so I get to wave the magic wand. It succeeds. The Royal camp is in the process of decamping when it is caught completely unawares by three thousand delighted Englishmen. James V drops dead of shock, and Marie goes into labour. Mary, Queen of Scots, is born into English captivity.
Roughly six weeks later, Warton arrives at St. James's Palace with a woman and child among his entourage. Henry is shocked beyond all belief, and grants Wharton a baronry for his sterling work. Marie is sent back to France after a few months in the Tower, expressly forbidden from setting foot in the British Isles again, while Mary is given over to wet nurses. Equivalents to OTL's Treaties of Greenwich are drawn out, though at this point the marriage contract is merely a formality.
So let's take a look at the situation now. Mary is raised in England, and any attempt to remove her in favour of her heir has a strong chance of triggering civil war. The Protestants are on the rise under George Wishart, and the Anglican church looks set to be imposed on the populace.
And across the Channel, the House of Guise has just received one of its daughters, grieving and humiliated. France's age-old ally has been soundly trounced by England, with measures taken to make this permanent. Surely now is the time to act...
So yeah, that's the basics. I'd write more, actually expanding on the POD, but I am so damn tired right now. It's 4am. Be grateful I can type coherent sentences.
Thoughts?
To best understand the ramifications of the POD, let's go back to history class: it's 1542. Scotland is paying the price for not joining England in rejecting Rome, and the armies of Henry VIII have humiliated the country, after a bloody defeat at Solway Moss. James V has just left the building, so the crown of Scotland falls to his days-old daughter, Mary.
The leading figures in the Scottish political scene at the time are:
* Marie of Guise, Queen Mother / Dowager and daughter of the House of Guise.
* Cardinal David Beaton, Archbishop of Edinburgh and oft-ambassador to France (arranged the marriage of James and Marie, for example).
* James Hamilton, Earl of Arran, first in line to the throne in the event of Mary's death. A Protestant and favourable to the English, IOTL he was made Regent, and aided in the peace treaty signing Mary over to the English (later broken).
* Matthew Stewart, Earl of Lennox, second in line to the throne in the event of Mary's death. A Catholic and figurehead of his faith's followers in the nobility, it seems fairly likely that he could raise considerable support in the event that he challenged Arran's succession to the throne.
Now, like it says in the Earl of Arran's biography up there, part of the peace treaty forced on the Scots after James' death concerned the betrothal of Mary to Prince Edward of England, with the obvious intent of binding Scotland's lands into England over the next few generations. IOTL this was repudiated by the Scottish Parliament, eight months later.
But what if they didn't?
Well, this is a daft question, on the face of it. Of course the Scots would repudiate a treaty that sold their Queen over the border, and turned them into a second Wales. No amount of incentive could persuade them to surrender the symbol of their country to... Englishmen.
So let's take the choice out of their hands. I propose a PoD where Marie of Guise insists on staying with her husband as he sickens and dies - fairly reasonable, even if it is dangerously close to the front, but it's difficult to argue with an incredibly powerful and distraught heavily pregnant woman. Solway Moss goes off as per OTL, but during the course of the battle it is pointed out to the English commander, Thomas Warton, that both the King of Scotland and his future heir lie a day or two's march away. Imagine the glory for England!
His fellow commanders, the Musgroves, attempt to convince him that this is madness. Such a plan is far too risky - the men need time to recover from the battle, they don't need to go marching off on some wild goose chase!
Well, it's my timeline, so I get to wave the magic wand. It succeeds. The Royal camp is in the process of decamping when it is caught completely unawares by three thousand delighted Englishmen. James V drops dead of shock, and Marie goes into labour. Mary, Queen of Scots, is born into English captivity.
Roughly six weeks later, Warton arrives at St. James's Palace with a woman and child among his entourage. Henry is shocked beyond all belief, and grants Wharton a baronry for his sterling work. Marie is sent back to France after a few months in the Tower, expressly forbidden from setting foot in the British Isles again, while Mary is given over to wet nurses. Equivalents to OTL's Treaties of Greenwich are drawn out, though at this point the marriage contract is merely a formality.
So let's take a look at the situation now. Mary is raised in England, and any attempt to remove her in favour of her heir has a strong chance of triggering civil war. The Protestants are on the rise under George Wishart, and the Anglican church looks set to be imposed on the populace.
And across the Channel, the House of Guise has just received one of its daughters, grieving and humiliated. France's age-old ally has been soundly trounced by England, with measures taken to make this permanent. Surely now is the time to act...
So yeah, that's the basics. I'd write more, actually expanding on the POD, but I am so damn tired right now. It's 4am. Be grateful I can type coherent sentences.
Thoughts?