This time it's an obscure Byzantine/Vandal plausibility check

Goddas or Godas was a Gothic noblemen who served the Vandal Kingdom in Africa; sent by King Gelimer to collect taxes from the people of Sardinia. The Eastern Roman historican Procopius of Caesarea mentioned Goddas as one of Gelimer's most trusted men, tasked with the administration of Sardinia, with the committment of paying tribute to the King. Encouraged by the Sardinian people who were tired of Vandalic rule, he declared independence and proclaimed himself King of Sardinia, sending letters to Justinian, wanting to form an alliance between Sardinia and the Eastern Empire. Justinian arranged military aid to be sent to a man named Eulogio with instructions to deliver a military force and a commander of the Byzantine army to help defend the island. Yet a Vandal army consisting of 120 ships and 5000 men under the command of Tzazo to put an end to the uprising.

Now this is where it gets interesting. While Tzazo was away, a Byzantine army commanded by Belisarius sailed for Africa with the intention of restoring North Africa to the Byzantine Empire. With the absence of Tzazo and the bulk of the Vandal army, Belisarius was able to land unopposed, and ultimately destroyed the Vandal kingdom.

The question is what if Goddas decides to remain loyal to Gelimer, thus leaving Tzazo and his forces ready to back up Gelimer when Belisarius comes?


 
And here's where I'm placing my comment:

Belisarius still seems to be a good enough general to win, but you might get things going differently - having to fight from the beginning is never good for an amphibious invasion. Not doom, but dicier.

And if Belisarius gets killed, I wouldn't want to put any money on his army being much of a threat. Hell, worst case scenario Gelimier can bribe them - half of it is barbarian mercenaries - into joining him.

Or maybe that's best case scenario for the Vandals, but its bad for the ERE.
 
I'd guess that the Vandal Kingdom would still fall just with a greater toll on Belisarius's troops. What impact on the ERE would that have?

I do wonder if Tzazo's absence was arranged or if Justinian/Belisarius merely took advantage of it.
 
I'd guess that the Vandal Kingdom would still fall just with a greater toll on Belisarius's troops. What impact on the ERE would that have?
It means a longer war in Africa, which probably means no invasion of Gothic Italy in the 530s, if at all. The speed and ease of the African campaign greatly emboldened Justinian- without this, the Western campaigns will look very different.

We'll see a Roman victory in the end, of course, but it'll be more dragged out, and Justinian may have to send a second, larger army at some stage to reinforce or replace Belisarius.
 
And here's where I'm placing my comment:

Belisarius still seems to be a good enough general to win, but you might get things going differently - having to fight from the beginning is never good for an amphibious invasion. Not doom, but dicier.

And if Belisarius gets killed, I wouldn't want to put any money on his army being much of a threat. Hell, worst case scenario Gelimier can bribe them - half of it is barbarian mercenaries - into joining him.

Or maybe that's best case scenario for the Vandals, but its bad for the ERE.

The Romans probably still have a good chance of winning though it'll resemble more like the Gothic War in its intesity and resistance by the Vandals especially with the bulk of them not fighting in some obscure island. Hell if they're lucky Belisarius may die, and Gelimer as you said can bribe the army to lay down their arms and join them which is interesting to say the least.

Especially when the Bulgars come in.


 
I think this could be good if its drawn out.

You want North africa.

Italy is just gonna drain you.

Less troops in Italy=More in the East where it matters
 
Italy was a drain only because of how long and devastating the Gothic Wars are and if Gelimer has all his troops, the Vandalic War might be just as drawn out and destructive for North Africa which might make the province worthless anyways.
 
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