Thirty Years' War Without Hapsburg Spain

In TTL, if Spain were to give Naples up, France would take it. By controlling both Milan and Naples, France would have hegemony over Italy. In TTL, the Habsburgs would be hard pressed to keep the Burgundian inheritance from French conquest without the assistance of Spain. The Habsburgs would not have the manpower by themselves to defeat France. An alliance with England would not give the Habsburgs the resources needed to repel the French. So the price of Spain not getting involved would be French conquest of the Burgundian inheritance and hegemony of Italy in TTL. In OTL, the balance of power between France and the domains of Emperor Charles V was basically even. In TTL, the balance of power would be altered so much in France’s favor that Spain (even in alliance with England) would not be able to defeat it in future wars.
 
In TTL, if Spain were to give Naples up, France would take it. By controlling both Milan and Naples, France would have hegemony over Italy. In TTL, the Habsburgs would be hard pressed to keep the Burgundian inheritance from French conquest without the assistance of Spain. The Habsburgs would not have the manpower by themselves to defeat France. An alliance with England would not give the Habsburgs the resources needed to repel the French. So the price of Spain not getting involved would be French conquest of the Burgundian inheritance and hegemony of Italy in TTL. In OTL, the balance of power between France and the domains of Emperor Charles V was basically even. In TTL, the balance of power would be altered so much in France’s favor that Spain (even in alliance with England) would not be able to defeat it in future wars.

How would Spain give up Naples though? Dowry for another royal family in another European country?
 
How would Spain give up Naples though? Dowry for another royal family in another European country?

Spain would never give up Naples in any scenario unless they lost it in a war. I was simply expressing what could happen if Spain (no matter who ruled it) was neutral toward France. In TTL, it would still be in Spain’s permanent interests to keep France from becoming more powerful. Even if both the Empire and England were to go Protestant in TTL, Spain would still need their help to keep France down.
 
A Reformation would probably still happen, but it would look very different, and lead to such a different geopolitical situation that talking about the 30YW is meaningless.

For instance, a France that isn't surrounded by Hapsburgs would have been much less invested in supporting the early Protestant princes. Likewise, an Emperor without the resources of Hapsburg Spain (and the New World) to draw on might have been more open to compromise, thus robbing the Schmalkadic League of much of its rationale. And of course, the specific circumstances of the English (and to a lesser extent Scottish and Dutch) Reformation are almost certainly completely different (hard to divorce Catherine of Aragon when she doesn't even exist ITTL).

You assume that France stays Catholic. In this alt!Reformation, perhaps France converts to Protestantism.
 
In OTL, the kings of France remained Catholic because they had nothing to gain from becoming Protestant. Due to the concordant between Francis I of France and Pope Leo X in 1516, the kings of France were given the power to decide who would control the Gallican church. Thus the king of France controlled the wealth of the Gallican church and provided sinecures for his followers. Since the kings of France already controlled church property they saw no need to leave the Catholic Church. In OTL, both the kings of France and Spain stood to lose great deal of power if they left the Catholic Church. In TTL, the concordant might not be signed, but with Martin Luther around, I imagine Francis I would be able to use the Protestant threat as a means to obtain a similar arrangement with the Catholic Church.
 
French Italian ambitions was what Habsburg Austria-Burgundy and Trastamara Castille-Aragon brought together. Not to mention that the Habsburgs already inherited a rivalry with France as the heirs of Valois-Burgundy, a rivalry which can be traced back to the rivalry between the Orleans and Burgundy branches of the house of Valois.

Anyway for the Habsburgs their original main concern was to prevent France from getting the duchy of Milan, whereas the Trastamaras initial concern was the kingdom of Naples. This basically made them natural allies, since they had a common foe and not many conflicting interests.

The reason that the Habsburgs were concerned about Milan is quite simple, it's a part of the Empire, but more importantly it's dangerously close to the Habsburg Austrian Hereditary Lands.

@ Alpha Trion: the Habsburgs had similar considerations as their Spanish and French counterparts to stay Catholic, they too wouldn't gain much from converting.
You also made a good point about the balance of power, IOTL the realms of Charles V (I assume they also include those from his brother Ferdinand I) and France were roughly equal, England was in the position, that it could tip the scale in some side's favour.
However IOTL the Habsburg Netherlands were one their most valuable European possessions, the tax income was thrice as high as the tax income of Naples and Sicily, only eventually surpassed by Castille, however the Habsburg Netherlands were able to provided loans*, which were twice as high as what Castille could afford.
Still even without Habsburg Spain, France and Spain are bound to become rivals anyway, however holding together alliances will be harder ITTL.
 
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