OK I haven't abandoned this discussion or plans for a TL on the Thirty years' war. I've just been super busy over the past few weeks. Didn't want anyone to think that I had.
I agree that the tensions between the factions will help the Spanish exert more control over the region, however, I think the different factions might well end up warring against each other when tensions boil over. This would mean that the Spanish have a civil war between Dutch factions that they have to police, which could become somewhat of a drain in the long run. Further, the political infighting in the northern Netherlands would likely work as a continuous reason to emigrate, either as self-imposed exile, being pushed out, or looking for greener pastures.
I am not sure how influential the Remonstants would be by this point in time, their political influence having largely been purged in the late 1610s. They were actually viewed as a non-issue by 1630 when the were allowed to practice across the United Provinces. Beyond that I still think that the Catholic Church would view Arminianism as heresy, and having emerged victorious in the conflict would, while not actively pursuing the faithful, be unwilling to compromise the faith on their behalf.
Definitely agree with you there. A Dutch civil war, even if its a short one, is likely to occur at that point. Either it will happen as a reaction over the Stadtholder attempting to surrender (think the short uprising that happened before Emperor Hirohito surrendered in 1945 but more drawn out) or shortly after the Republic falls. Of course it might not be as big a drain as you think, sense we're at the point of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", so to speak. The Spainish are likely to insist on the use of the Stadtholder's (former?) Dutch troops against the rebels. Between the Orangists and the Spanish army I think any civil war would be relatively short, as long as no one else intervenes. THEN we have a major mess on our hands.
As for the Remonstrants, that one I'm still working on. The purge happened in 1618/1619, so clearly within living memory, and chances are much of the community would have gone underground but remained semi-functional. Also, in 1619 an exiled community was founded in Antwerp, where the Remonstrant brotherhood was first founded. The choice of Antwerp also implies a certain approval or toleration from the Spanish as otherwise they would have set up shop in Germany or England. Perhaps the Spanish were aiming for a fifth column (which could be fun route to go down TTL)? I'll have to do more research but either way the Spaniards seem to have been willing to tolerate them and Arminianism could become a stepping stone towards a return to Catholicism. At least in Madrid's eyes.
Finally, to the non-issue part, I had also thought of that. It became a non-issue after the death of Prince-Stadtholder Maurice. Now from what I've read Maurice's last years in power, from his coup in 1618 to his death in 1625, did more harm than good in the Republic. Here's the link to what I'm talking about:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years'_War#The_Republic_under_siege_.281621.E2.80.931629.29. I might be wrong but it seems to me that a longer living Maurice would make things even worse in the Republic and improve the situation for the Spanish. Having him live to the early 1630s could drive the Dutch towards their death-keel much faster. Hell that could be a good base for the fall: Maurice's politics lead to an early seclusion of the House of Orange. In response the Oranges could turn to the Spanish and cut a deal: an autonomous province for their family and in exchange they bring their supporters behind the Spanish flag. I for one think it could work but what do you think?
I think your description of the situation in the East and Scandinavia sounds about right, though even if Sweden finds failure the reforms done by Gustavus Adolphus would likely still be adopted by his opponents as swiftly as possible. In regards to muskets, I think that the Spanish are likely to increase the weight of firearms in their Tercios but will probably follow their OTL unwillingness to adapt fully even longer ITTL due to the lack of clear defeats for the Tercio system by this point in time. One thing that got me wondering was that if we have a series of increasingly centralizing, militant and war-like Eastern and Scandinavian states fighting it out over the next several decades you might have the entire profession professionalizing earlier. You might begin to see some of the military developments that occurred in France IOTL happen in the north instead, with Depots, proper supply lines, and military staff etc. happen. I wonder how long would it take someone to think of introducing the bayonet? It was already being used for hunting by this point in time, so probably only really a question of time and someone thinking of it.
The reason that the Dutch became the arms-dealers of (Protestant) Christendom was their constant warfare with the Spanish. I think that with the internal strife, streams of refugees, incoming Spanish administration and all the other issues you would have happening in the northern Netherlands that it is likely to end up significantly reduced or moving elsewhere - Sweden with its booming steel industry seems like a logical place to go. Further, once the 30YW ends early, France is bound up in internal politics, and the Netherlands are conquered what is really left to fight over? Without constant conflicts to keep supplied might the Arms merchants and craftsmen change professions or move elsewhere?
I am of the opinion that a key reason for the Netherlands really flourishing during and in the immediate aftermath of the 80YW was the constant opposition they faced, the constant competition and need to improve if they were to survive. With the loss of the Netherlands you are likely to see widespread anger, fear and hopelessness in the middle-class and merchant classes of the Netherlands.
That would be quite interesting to see. It would basically shift military innovation from France to Scandinavia, which would fit as the west would be at peace while the North becomes the central location of European warfare for the time being. It also fits well considering Denmark was the first state to make absolutism the law of the land and Sweden's crown later established a financial dominance rarely seen in other European states. Plus near continuous wars between Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Russia would necessitate the professionalization of their armies. Depending on their success we could see Scandinavia be the place European nobles go to get their military education, sort of like how many served with the Dutch States army and the Army of Flanders to build up their skills/training. The baynet could grow out of experimental by a regimental colonel that ends up being successful and adapted by the rest of whichever army we chose.
To the arms industry, there could still be markets for them to sell two, albeit smaller than OTL. The Dutch would still be the standard to judge by, so we could see the Spanish sell arms to Poland for its Baltic/Turkish/Russian wars, Venice for its wars in the Med, the Catholics in France once the religious wars reignite and probably at least one other country I'm forgetting (England if some kind of war still happens?). But I do agree that Sweden, with its steel industry and probable position as a Northern France, would be the logical choice for a new home for parts of the industry.
To the Netherlands and trade, I agree with you there. The Spanish are unlikely to be able to keep the Dutch golden age going nor are they likely to wish to. I think that the Flemish (easier to say than constantly typing southern Dutch) would take some of the trade power via reopened Antwerp but its likely that the Dutch traders would be split among the rest of the Protestant powers (and possibly Portugal sense the Portuguese had previously dominated a lot of the eastern trade before the rise of the Dutch). And to be honest, I'm more interested in the Dutch financial system than anything else. The trade routes would just be a bonus. So basically some of the trade would fall to the Spanish-Flemish (sense the Northern Catholic merchants are going to stay in place) but most would be lost. Though on the flip side it means more competition so that could be better long-term.
The reason I find any attempt at circumnavigating the tolls unlikely is how absolutely vital they were to the Danish finances. A Kiel canal would be a direct threat to the functioning of the Danish state, I honestly can't think of anything you could do that would cause a worse reaction in Denmark than attempting to circumvent the tolls. While a canal might be feasible in theory, though it should be mentioned the Canal du Midi took 16 years to build and an immense amount of resources under the absolutist auspices of Louis XIV helping to guide the project along and preventing any work stoppage in combination with one of the great Engineers of the age, I don't think that even Wallenstein or a conglomeration of merchants would be able to marshal the resources necessary.
I think you might be right about Spanish power in comparison to Dutch refugees, but I do think that Spain was already significantly overstretched with regards to their colonial holdings, so while they might go for the most profitable Dutch colonies - the East Indies with all the spices particularly - I think that most of the remainder: New Netherlands, Dutch West Africa, Dutch India - Coromondel, Malabar and Formosa. I think the Danes would be very quick to take over the West African, Indian and Formosan operations seeing as they were actively looking for colonies in those areas at the time. An interesting PoD in Colonial India might be having the Portugese-Ceylon conflict last longer, meaning that when the Danish expedition arrives they are able to push out the Portugese and establish sole rights to trade in Ceylon. That would give Denmark a proper starting point for involvement in India beyond what they did IOTL and provide the Danish East India Company with a lucrative starting point that would help draw the Danes into the race for colonies. So to clarify, I am suggesting that the Iberian Union takes over the Dutch East Indies and the associated Spice Islands, Denmark takes over Formosa, Ceylon (having won the race for it ITTL), Dutch India and pieces of Dutch West Africa (split with England). This leaves New Netherlands in America and the remainder of the West African colonies to England. The West African split could be the impetus for conflict between the Danes and English.
I wonder how Gustavus' marriage would develop had he lived longer, because by the time he died it really seemed to be on its last legs. At the same time a Christina growing up under Gustavus would be very interesting and probably quite a bit more martial than IOTL. I don't see any way of reconciling Denmark and Sweden any time soon, though without its rampant successes in Germany to build on I do wonder what Sweden can hope to achieve. I think a minor war between Denmark and Sweden following the end of whatever the Swedo-Polish conflict ends up being called, before turning back to the PLC. maybe Sweden takes a chance by attacking Russia? I really can't say, though it seems to me that the dynamic being prepared in this region is one of near constant small and large scale warfare while the rest of Europe, particularly Spain and France, will probably have much more peaceful mid-centuries. The HRE is likely to clash with the Ottomans at some point later on as well.
Your no doubt correct about the feasibility of the Kiel canal at this time, I was simply pointing out that it was possible in theory. Though I will say that if Denmark emerges as an imperial power TTL (basically OTL's Swedish Empire), then chances are we will see plans for a canal later down the road. After all France built the Canal du Midi as a way to bypass Spanish control of the straits of Gibraltar, so a TTL wish to bypass Danish control of the Sound would fit well with the era.
For Spain's colonies, I agree. So the colonies would likely be divided up among the Portuguese (who have prior claim), the English (due to a treaty with Spain) and Denmark (by right of conquest). However, I don't think the Danes are going to get all of Dutch India, at least some are likely to fall (back) into the hands of Portugal I'd say Dutch Coromandel and Malabar would go to Denmark, along with some of the southern ports but the rest are up in the air. The Dutch didn't get involved in Ceylon until 1638, which is around the year I'm thinking of for the Republic's fall. So the Danish have no set in at that point. However, I can definitely see the Danish taking over the Chinese, Korean and Japanese trade. So here's the likely division: North America and parts of West Africa go to England, the Caribbean, part of India and the East Indies go to the Iberian union, and the rest of India, some of the Pacific islands, Taiwan, and possibly Cape town goes to Denmark. I think this is the most likely division, especially as Denmark would likely be late to the party, so to say.
Now Gustavus' marriage is a very interesting point. By the time of his death Queen Maria Eleonora was pretty much losing it and I don't see her husband's survival making much difference. That creates a difficult question of what happens to the marriage. Is Maria Eleonora locked up somewhere like OTL, only this time with the marriage dissolved to allow the King a chance to remarry and have a son? Or does he endure it and accept Christina as his sole heiress? The former would be the scenario pushed for by his advisors but would be a grave insult to Brandenburg-Prussia, while the later would be more or less like OTL. I think a divorce could be a way to further push Brandenburg into the Habsburg camp, combined with the earlier Swedish "betrayal" of Prussia to Poland. This could also be a way to push Sweden into trying to improve its relationship with Denmark: a common fear of the Empire. Not likely but possible. And I agree with the rest, about the Northern wars and an Imperial-Ottoman conflict I mean.
I wasn't talking about the Inquisition returning to the Netherlands. What I meant was that the Inquisition was a significant political actor in Spain at this point in time, and that it might get involved if it seems heretics are getting too close to power in Spain.
How would the Dévots interact with some of the other people we have been proposing so far? But otherwise I agree, it seems like a likely direction for the politics to go at this point in time. Maybe you could have several factions fighting for influence: The Dévots supported by Marie de Medici, the Chevreusois supported by Anne of Austria, and the Centralists made up of Richelieu's old supporters. This would certainly create an interesting dynamic, though the Centralists are likely to end up subsumed by one party or the other. This would leave Louis having to balance between his Mother and his Wife.
Regarding Richelieu I can see the appeal of a Imperial Richelieu but I don't think it likely that if he went there he would end up in a truly influential position, his history and possible french ties simply being too much of a danger to allow him true power. I think him going to Savoy would be most interesting, then having it develop as a Prussian analogue seems most interesting. Later on, once the two Habsburg sides split it would be an obvious ally of the Empire against Spanish Milan if it came to it. Maybe have Richelieu significantly more involved in papal politics than IOTL, but working from Savoy rather than from Rome? So you could have parts of all three options: Richelieu as prime minister of Savoy, allied with the Empire and involved in papal and Italian politics.
Oh my bad. In that case I'm not sure but I imagine that the Inquisition would be at the forefront of the conservative opposition to Olivares' policies. However, I don't see Olivares employing Dutch Protestants in Spain. The Netherlands sure but not at the His Most Catholic Majesty's court. Though I can see some of the Dutch Catholics that are trained in financial matters move to Madrid and the Council of Finance, if not as Councillors than at least as advisors. Also, in a lot of ways the Spanish Inquisition was a government department, answerable more to the King than the Pope, so we could just as likely to see the more vocal critics dismissed by Felipe IV as we are to have them lead the opposition at court.
For interaction, hard to say. But I think the idea of multiple factions would fit well with the unstable politics that existed before Richelieu's rise to power. The court and government would basically be hodgepodge coalition half at war with itself and jockeying for influence between this royal and that. We're also likely to see whomever ends up as Louis XIII's favorite in this scenario become a French Buckingham without Richelieu to neutralize him. The Centralists would likely try to play both sides against each other, with varying degrees of success. This also could fit in well with one of my ideas for our favorite Cardinal that I've included below.
For Richelieu I think that's the best case scenario. It allows him to retain his power, still favor native France, transform Savoy into a rising power and opens the door to meddling in Papal affairs. Hell we could even see a Pope Richelieu: very unlikely mind you but more probable here than OTL. Of course we could also see him eventually rehabilitated in France later on: at the point of his dismissal he had yet to burn his bridges with the Queen Mother and Duc d'Orleans. I can see the two engineering his recall as a way to oppose the power of Queen Anne or as a way to fix the mess that the French government becomes. That way France isn't too weakened but is unable to respond to the developments in the Empire and the Low countries until its to late, so to say.
With regards to Laud and the Clarendon code, I think that a milder version of them would make sense but without the horrors of the civil war and the dangers of a Puritan state completely clear I think the Clarendon code would be a step too far. Ooooh I like the idea of Puritans calling in the Palatine Princes. Maybe have it develop into a sort of Jacobite cause sort of situation with long term Palatine claims on the English crown. Would help introduce a element of uncertainty to the English that would be fun to explore.
Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps it could be the result of an uprising on the parts of the Puritans, either combined with an attempt to enthrone a Palatine Prince or as a result of the Spanish match and a growing number of Catholics (think the 1554 Wyatt's rebellion). Something to make the Puritans be seen as the villains rather than victims. Plus the Clarendon code did fit in quite well with what Charles I was aiming for, so I can definitely see him trying something like that here sense Parliament isn't his avowed enemy. As for the Palatinate pretenders, I'm still unsure. It would be quite interesting to explore to be sure but IDK if that's a route I want to go down, especially considering the weakness of the Palatinate family and the effective lack of foreign support. Maybe something similar to what happened OTL, with one of the Palatine Princes flirting with the Puritans but not fully committing to them? That could work.
I think having Philipp Christoph von Sötern be elected and then eventually being deposed by the Habsburgs would be a good way of showing growing Habsburg authority.
Sounds better to me. I like the idea of the Habsburgs being able to depose Princes, secular or ecclesiastical. Though I'd bet that it would cause a bit of consternation in Rome. But on the flip side its not like the Pope could do all that much: this isn't the middle ages and the Investiture controversy. Interdicts were know longer effective, Venice had proved that back in 1606/07, and I can't see the Pope excommunicating the Emperor whose tipped the balance in favor of Catholicism. Plus this is Urban VIII we're talking about: a big enough bribe should make him accept things with no major fuss.
The Dutch refugees that arrived in Scandinavia were largely welcomed and put to use by the Kings of the time, so if the protestant states find themselves annoyed at the refugees they can always seek the North.
True. I was mainly using the exiles from Austria and Bohemia in the 1620s as a basis for how other ones would be treated. The poorer exiles were regarded as an embarrassment and a major drain of resources by many of the German states, especially Saxony. Of course that's mainly due to them not having any real skills that would help their foster homes, so experienced Dutch refugees are likely to get better treatment.
Honestly, If Wallenstein had come south as a threat you might see a panic among the smaller protestant states though I don't see what they could do at this point in time.
The smaller states would likely respond to any occupation by filling lawsuits in the Aulic Council/Reichshofrat and Imperial Chamber Court/Reichskammergericht. As long as they are loyal to the Emperor the courts are likely to decide in their favor.
I think that much of the economic expertise among the northern merchant class would be lost to the Spanish and the Catholics are unlikely to take over the same roles in the future. I think you would see a massive refocusing of the Dutch merchant class towards the New World, though again you run into serious difficulties because of the various monopolies that they would need to break or become part of. Particularly the Seville monopoly on New World trade would create challenges for the Dutch traders. The Olivares government would have to make some sort of reform on this point or see the Netherlands go to ruins. But once those reforms are implemented you would have the Castilian merchants and others benefiting from the monopoly angered. I think that the more successful Olivares is in his reforms the more likely he is to get a knife to the back at some point. It might actually be an interesting way to go with this, have Olivares be too successful and end up killed in an assassination. I think you would end up with an Anglo-Danish rivalry for the Japanese and wider all of eastern trade routes. If you go with my suggestion of Denmark taking Ceylon and Formosa I think they would be well placed to take over from the Dutch.
Don't see anything here that I disagree with. Olivares will have to fight an uphill battle to break the monopolies and integrate the Dutch economic powers, but it would ultimately be worth it. And as long as he retains the confidence of his sovereign he's good. This is very likely considering how long he remained in power OTL despite several failures and the fact that TTL Olivares has basically done the impossible and ended a seventy year long conflict with a complete and total victory. Not sure about an assassination, mainly because I'm not sure who would/could succeed Olivares and still continue his reforms, but it could be interesting. Finally, I included the stuff on the Dutch/Danish/English in an above section.
I can't say I have found any other references to it but raising Austria to a Kingdom would certainly be interesting. If you can get some good family drama out of it, so much the better. With Ferdinand victorious he might be tempted to return to these plans.
I'd love to get details on this plan before deciding to incorporate it into this TL. I know that in theory and in practice the Emperor could create a new Kingdom (case in point the plans of Charles the Bold of Burgundy and Emperor Friedrich III and the later elevation of Prussia) but this would involve elevating his own estates, something that had never been attempted OTL. Plus I'm not sure if detaching Austria from Germany would be a good thing or not with the Empire beginning to coalesce into a centralized monarchy under the Emperor.
The best bet would be to make the HRE a hereditary monarchy under the House of Habsburg, making the de-facto de-jure. Of course the main problem with that would be the opposition of the Electors. Hm... maybe make the crown hereditary in the male line descendants of Emperor Ferdinand I? That way there's no danger of inheritance by Spain, and add a codicil allowing the Electors to select a new Emperor/dynasty if the male line goes extinct. Perhaps a law similar to that of Tanistry, making the Habsburgs the only ones that can be elected but leaving the individual up to the Electors? Or give the Electors the right to "confirm" an Emperor, with the German-Roman Kingship hereditary by the Imperial Crown not? I'll have to work in this one.
So I have been thinking a bit about the Netherlands situation and I have a couple of things that I thought I would bring up.
By the time the Netherlands fall ITTL, they were in the early parts of the Dutch Golden Age. The Netherlands were at the center of finance, science, culture and a dozen other fields particularly for northern Europe. The Dutch were a happy expats in many protestant nations and were hired on to improve almost every aspect of life in many of these places. When Antwerp fell to the Spanish they instituted a grace period of 4 years in which people could leave for the United Provinces, I was wondering if Olivares might consider doing something similar in this case - so as to get rid of as many malcontents as possible and ease the integration of the states into the Habsburg Spanish Empire.
So what I was wondering had to do with the potential refugee population, specifically where they go from here and what they might change. You have the already massive refugee population, being a mixture of Sephardi Jews, Hussite, Calvinist and Protestant refugees from the HRE, Huguenots from France alongside refugees from the southern Netherlands and many others, in the United Provinces. These people were likely the largest conglomeration of knowledge, resources and talent up to this point and would help fuel the Dutch predominance for most of the century IOTL. ITTL They seem unlikely to stay in the Netherlands, particularly when you consider that they originally fled there to get away from Habsburg power. So it is not just parts of the Dutch population that might go refugee, but also the massive refugee population they had living with them.
Beyond the refugees from the Netherlands, you probably also have OTL's mass of refugees from Bohemia who IOTL streamed into the Netherlands, with the fall of the UP they will have to find somewhere willing to accept them and the knowledge and resources they bring with them. Many of these refugees are among the best educated and richest in the world, so its not like they won't prove to be a boon. At the same time I don't think too many will seek to go to the New World because the colonies are still too undeveloped for that to really be anything other than a last resort.
Sorry for the rather rambling post, Just came across a website on Dutch painters from the period and it got me thinking.
I think a grace period to leave would be a good choice and quite likely as a way to, as you said, get rid of potential threats and malcontents. As for your other point, I hadn't actually thought of the refugee population that already existed in the Netherlands. Those with the resources
The newer refugees and the Jews will obviously try to take advantage of the grace period to leave for greener pastures, but it will depend on what resources they have and what if any the Spaniards and Protestant nations offer, like providing transportation for example. However, I imagine a good good amount, likely the older generation of refugees like the Huguenots and southern Dutch, will likely stay, either due to a lack of means/resources to leave or an unwillingness to abandon yet another home. There are also those who, despite being at odds religiously with the Spanish, will stay for economic or political advantages. After all the Spanish are going to need local administrators to integrate the Republic into the Seventeen Provinces and there would definitely be rewards for collaborating with the new regime.
For the Jews, I think they're likely to head to England. Stuart England was generally quite tolerant towards them, though this is before they regained citizenship under Charles II. On the other hand this could cause a restoration of rights to happen a few decades earlier. Along with the Jews I can see some of the Bohemian and Palatinate refugees going to England due to the connections of the Stuarts and Palatine Wittelsbachs. All the others though are likely to have to go to Scandinavia and Germany, maybe Switzerland if the Swiss are feeling generous.
BTW, I did find a few interesting things in my new book on the Spanish match,
The Prince and the Infanta by Glyn Redworth. King James offered a joint Anglo-Spanish campaign against the Dutch, with whom the English had little love. That this was offered gives credence to a TTL cooperation between London and Madrid against The Hague and to an English route for the Spanish road. Also I've given further thoughts for the possible route: we could possibly the connection go from Spain to Ireland, where the Spanish could recruit troops, then to Bristol and on to the Netherlands. This addition would be due to fears of an interception by the Dutch fleet (the Spaniards already had secure routes to Ireland) and as a way to recruit additional men.
I think they would follow their business connections. It is easier to set up a new life in a place where you already know someone. You see that effect also in contemporary migration patterns. So, that's why I think the countries around the Baltic Sea would get a lot of these refugees. Especially Sweden, but also Poland, if that country holds her religious tolerance.
Hadn't thought of Poland but that would also be a possibility. Hell it could end up being a big boost to the Commonwealth as it would potentially give the Crown new financial resources outside of the nobility's control.