ben0628

Banned
Related question -- if the TYW is significantly shorter, how much devastation (demographic, economic, and cultural) is averted? How much had Germany already lost by, say, 1630, compared to what was lost after 1635?

The most devastating part of the War from what I read occurred after Swedish intervention began. The Danish and Bohemian conflicts at the beginning weren't as drawn out like the rest of the war, so i'd assume the devastation would be far far less.
 
The most devastating part of the War from what I read occurred after Swedish intervention began. The Danish and Bohemian conflicts at the beginning weren't as drawn out like the rest of the war, so i'd assume the devastation would be far far less.
I've seen a lot of plausible talk here on how Gustavus Adolphus could have been kept out of the war (being distracted by Poland, dying earlier, etc) with fairly late PoDs (circa 1627), so that much seems plausible.

And I wanted to ask specifically -- with a PoD in 1627 or 28, could the Edict of Restitution in 1629 be prevented altogether? Specifically, a Hapsburg victory where such a measure is never introduced?
 
Interesting stuff. Sadly the stuff on the Archduchesses aren't that helpful for me at this point as that's way to far back for my taste. Out of curiosity, what's your source on epilepsy for Maximilian? I haven't seen that before. My idea was for Maximilian Ernst to become one of the ecclesiastical Electors, either of Mainz (first choice) or Trier (second choice). This gives the Habsburgs more influence in the imperial Church and the College of Electors. Mainz would be the best choice but not sure if the Cathedral chapter would elect an Archduke or if the other Princes would be comfortable with a Habsburg as Emperor and another as Archchancellor of the Empire.

I found it on Kleio, that Maximilian was epileptic. Admittedly, some of the info on Kleio seems still more suspect than wikipedia - Leonardo da Vinci having married Isabella of Aragon, Dowager Duchess of Milan and had five kids by her, for instance - but they do cite their sources (most times), and the fact that the Habsburgs, and the Habsburg-Lorraines, have at least one epileptic every generation (Elisabeth, Queen of Poland; Max Ernst, Archduke of Austria; Maria Anna, Queen of Spain; Felipe Prosper, Prince of the Asturias; (I think it must've been one of the few illnesses Carlos II didn't have, since ICR reading that he was epileptic); Karl, Duke of Teschen; Ferdinand I (who had something like 50 fits a day); Rainer of Austria; etc.).
 
I think we'd see a lot of blame gaming among the factions as to just who is responsible for the Republic's fall. The factions themselves are awkward considering the Orangists generally supported the war and the Republicans/Regents were against it. The Orangists would simultaneously be discredited and the best hope of retaining some autonomy. At the same time the Regents would need to support Spain to retain trade with the Caribbean and the new world. A definite realignment would be due to happen. This could tie in well with the later emigration from the Netherlands.

IIRC the Orangists were primarily landowners and military men, while the Republicans/Regents were more city and merchant based. This could really make for lots of "fun" political craziness in the Netherlands.

The supposed inferiority of the Tercios has been blown out of proportion, at least in my opinion. They were still able to win battles up through the 1659 Battle of the dunes and Rocroi was not only a near thing but also a short-term defeat. However, yes I do think we'd see some incorporation of the Dutch regimental system. As for muskets, chances are that would be more of a gradual thing than OTL. After all, the French wouldn't necessarily have a better army as here they're not at war for 25 years. But once war breaks out between France and Spain I think we'd see both sides begin to incorporate new technologies and learn new lessons. Basically things are merely delayed. But a stronger Spain with saner leadership would be more likely to try new things in the face of a defeat or as a way to get the edge.

I know that the tercios have been underappreciated in regards to their effectiveness up until the emergence of largescale musket formations.My point was more in regards to them not really having built up experience facing Swedish style armies with their combined arms approach - light cannon, swift cavalry and a ton of muskets. This means that when they finally face that type of army they are going to take a while to change their approach to warfare to fit the more dynamic formations needed for all-musket armies. The Tercio remains effective as long as the Pike remains effective, when proper bayonets become available the Tercio is going to experience severe problems. Historically the Spanish were very slow to adapt to these changes and it might catch them unaware ITTL as well. I don't think that a victorious Spain would be more likely to adapt, i think the opposite is more likely to happen. ITTL the Tercio has proven itself the most effective military unit for the last two centuries almost, that is not a legacy that is easy to change.

Another thought that occured to me was that without Gustavus Adolphus involving himself in Germany the effectiveness of light cannon and cavalry charges might not be learned any time soon. You are likely to have Denmark follow the Swedish innovations whenever they next clash, similarly for Russia and the PLC, but Western Europe will not learn of these changes. This means that cavalry tactics remain focused around the Caracole and heavy cannon remains the mainstay of battles. I would not want to be a member of the first western army to run into the armies being developed in northern and eastern Europe. If you can keep a steady stream of northern wars running, with Russia, the PLC, Sweden and Denmark all fighting each other on a regular basis you could have two completely divergent military philosophies develop in Europe.

Interesting idea. How bout instead a three-way rivalry between the English, Dutch and Danish? I think that's more likely as chances are the Dutch would still remain a major player, loss of merchants or not. In this case they would merely be replaced with their Catholic counterparts. But I do like a English-Danish rivalry. It plays well with the traditional argument over which kingdom was the leading Protestant power. As to the sound, maybe. Remember that Sweden did a lot of trade with Spain during this time. So pissing off the Spanish could also piss off the Swedes and create a very bizarre bedfellow scenario. Of course, sense they're not raising the toll, its not technically a shot at Spain. I wonder if this could lead to an attempt at an early Kiel canal as a way to bypass the Danish entirely? If successful it would give the Empire a massive new revenue stream. Finally, I think there might not be as many fleeing as you would think. Fleeing to Denmark means they'd likely have give up the spice trade of the east indies and the New world/Caribbean trade: Spain would cut them off of both.

Now THAT would be really interesting! Hell if Christian IV's son the Prince Elect marries a bit earlier and produces a son, this ATL Prince could marry Queen Cristina. This would mean the Kalmar union is restored legally, not just by conquest. Of course that also means a war with the PLC, as the Vasas of Poland aren't likely to take the conquest of "their" other kingdom all that well. Could turn the Baltic into a three-way cold war between the Polish-Lithuanians, Danish-Swedes and the Russians.

I think that while the Dutch would remain players in the contest they are more likely to be relegated to a third place in the competition. The Dutch merchants might just get annoyed enough with having to pay the full Sound Toll when they are used to the lowered ones they traditionally got that they switch flag to Denmark to evade them. The large degree of trade between Sweden and Spain in this case would be very profitable for the Danish King's coffers. The Sound Toll was basically what allowed the Danish kings to bypass the nobility and let them finance massive mercenary armies. This wouldn't really annoy the Spanish as such, since nothing has really changed for them. The only ones who would really feel the change in sound tolls are the formerly Dutch sailors who now have to pay the full toll. i don't think there is any way a early Kiel canal is built, I don't think the technology, resources or will are there to do so. Further, I am pretty sure at least some of the area that the canal would go through is part of the Christian's Duchies. I don't see why they would be giving up their spice trade - I think it much more likely that when it looks like the Dutch are about to fall a number of the different colonies change their colors particularly in the east indies and Caribbean where the two sides have been fighting intensely for so long and the Dutch have been largely winning. Some of the areas might even go nominally pirate for a while before they can find a benefactor. Then you could have Denmark and England, as part of the who is the leading protestant power rivalry, try to take the various colonies before their rival can. The Spanish already have a global colonial empire that is larger than they can really handle so they might just shift the Dutch focus towards the internal colonies - although then you start running into problems of monopolies and the Council of the Indies having control of all trade. The Spanish were honestly horrendous when it came to their trade policies and that definitely played a part in starting the 80YW.

There are a couple of problems with a latter-day Kalmar Union. Firstly, by this point I am pretty sure you would be in for a challenge to find a pair of countries more at odds with each other than Denmark and Sweden. The Swedish population would go crazy if there was even a hint of returning to the Union. Do remember that it is only a century ago that Christian II perpetrated the Stockholm Bloodbath. The Dano-Swedish rivalry, although at this point Sweden would still be viewed as the lesser of the two, is only 30 years from reaching its peak. I cannot imagine any way this would work out. All of this is ignoring Christina's absolute unwillingness to marry and play the proper demure wife. Christina is honestly a really interesting character and it might be fun to keep her on the throne for a longer period of time - especially considering her catholic sympathies and high degree of education which would help build ties with the Habsburgs.

That's what I was thinking myself. Maybe we'd see a Spanish Day of the Dupes but I think Olivares would be able to retain the support of Felipe IV in such a scenario. We'd definitely see a more fair distribution of taxes across the monarchy, a larger standing army emerge across the empire and I'm thinking of a centralized Cortes of Aragon based on the Cortes Generales in Castile-Leon (by that I mean the dissolution of the various minor estates in favor of one major estates for the entire Crown). That should help the government run more smoothly, especially combined with control over Dutch financial institutions. As to the Barbary states, I think something similar to the British and US campaigns in the early 19th century is possible, if not quite likely.

Speaking of Richelieu, I wonder what happens to him? I mean does he remain in retirement, try to claw his way back into power or does he offer his services to another state? Richelieu in say England, Savoy or Bavaria could be highly interesting.

I think you might be right about Olivares, but with his greater success do you think that his opponents would actually go to Felipe and try to get him replaced? I just got to thinking about whether there would be support for attempting to assassinate him instead. This would solve many of the problems Olivares opponents faced completely and I can see some of the members of the opposition being willing to go this far when they see Olivares trying to bring the Dutch closer to the realm. The decision to be tolerant towards the Dutch heretics could lead to a large backlash among the devout Castilian. What reaction and role might the Spanish Inquisition have in all of this?

With regards to Richelieu, I honestly don't know. He could stay and try to fight it out but I don't see how he could succeed in this case. He really is in a problematic position, he alienated the Savoyards with the Treaty of Monçon - though he was able to reconcile with them. They might be willing to work with him if they believe he would work on their behalf. This might actually prove very interesting, because with Richelieu there to guide things along he could play France and Spain off against each other and make gains for Savoy in the Mantuan Succession. This would actually give Savoy a chance to play the two (three with the Empire) against each other. With Richelieu's political abilities and a smaller drain on Savoyard finances the ground work for a strong Alpine state should be possible.

That sounds similar to what I'm thinking. However I don't think the Habsburgs would get to the point of being openly opposed to each other. Definitely tensions between the branches but not an open break. That leaves the dynasty vulnerable to French influence/power and in the case of the Empire could weaken their hold over the vassals, who could play Spain against the Emperor. Though I like the idea of a gradual drift in relations over a length of time that could lead to the emergence of eastern and western Habsburg power blocks. I could see France as a wild card in such a scenario.

As for England, the religious situation could be delayed indefinitely if handled carefully. I think we'd see something similar to the Clarendon code/laws emerge in the 1630s, giving the Laudian reforms legal backing. It would also help if the Calvinists can be associated with instability and radicalism. Make them less attractive to the populace. I think Parliament would remain like it was under James I and Elizabeth in this scenario, as here the Peers and MPs haven't ignored and humiliated the King. As long as they cooperate partially then the status quo would continue.

I wasn't thinking of an early open opposition, I was thinking more long term. By the late 1600s - early 1700s you could see these two powerblocks being the only ones really left with France perhaps supporting one of the sides against the other to help split them further apart. I think by that point there would be a feeling of Habsburg support being a solution rather than a problem, if they can turn the two parts of the family against each other. I am of the opinion that while the Habsburgs were better than almost any other dynasty at cooperating and working together for the greater good of the dynasty, if the Habsburgs begin to view themselves as being unchallenged they could quickly fall into infighting.

In regards to England I find it hard to imagine something like the Clarendon code passing without conflict. I think if you had the king publicly and legally back one side of the split then you could well see anyone opposed to him flock to the Puritans. Actually, now I think on it we might be able to use a more religiously motivated and active Charles as a starting point for a later conflict between Laudians and Puritans. I could be completely off here, I am not at my strongest with England's religious landscape at the time. I think that actively supporting the Laudian reforms might create fears in England that Charles is getting ready to imitate Ferdinand II in Austria pre-30YW.

Interesting stuff. Sadly the stuff on the Archduchesses aren't that helpful for me at this point as that's way to far back for my taste. Out of curiosity, what's your source on epilepsy for Maximilian? I haven't seen that before. My idea was for Maximilian Ernst to become one of the ecclesiastical Electors, either of Mainz (first choice) or Trier (second choice). This gives the Habsburgs more influence in the imperial Church and the College of Electors. Mainz would be the best choice but not sure if the Cathedral chapter would elect an Archduke or if the other Princes would be comfortable with a Habsburg as Emperor and another as Archchancellor of the Empire.

I think a dual Habsburg leadership in that way would be a step too far. The Habsburgs basically had the Mainz electorship locked down by this point and all of the Mainz Electors voted in the Habsburgs favor whenever it was necessary. I honestly can't see a reason for the Habsburgs to change the situation in this case.


I just want to say to you guys this is one of the most educational and well formed thread I have ever since on this sights. Likes on the house

Thank you! :D

Related question -- if the TYW is significantly shorter, how much devastation (demographic, economic, and cultural) is averted? How much had Germamy already lost by, say, 1630, compared to what was lost after 1635?

The most devastating part of the War from what I read occurred after Swedish intervention began. The Danish and Bohemian conflicts at the beginning weren't as drawn out like the rest of the war, so i'd assume the devastation would be far far less.

As ben0628 put it, it was only after the Swedish intervention began that the devastation really went out of control. Prior to the Swedes intervening you had significant devastation and land confiscation in Bohemia, more limited along the Rhine where the Palatinate was located, and very limited devastation in Lower Saxony/Pomerania/Jutland.

The Swedes were the first to really exploit the massive number of mercenaries built up during the previous period and they had next to no compunction about destroying anything that got in their way. One of the estimates I have seen is that the Swedish Army - by itself - destroyed 1/3 of all castles, towns and villages in Germany. The regions that were hardest hit by the devastation were also the areas Sweden was most involved in, with Brandenburg losing 1/2 its population during the conflict - and the male population of Germany was halved.

I think it is difficult to find a more devastating conflict in European history you could argue that the world wars were more devastating, but if you consider how quickly Germany bounced back from those when compared to the centuries it took many of the population centers to come close to their former greatness.

I've seen a lot of plausible talk here on how Gustavus Adolphus could have been kept out of the war (being distracted by Poland, dying earlier, etc) with fairly late PoDs (circa 1627), so that much seems plausible.

And I wanted to ask specifically -- with a PoD in 1627 or 28, could the Edict of Restitution in 1629 be prevented altogether? Specifically, a Hapsburg victory where such a measure is never introduced?

I don't see how the Edict isn't proclaimed if the Habsburgs find themselves victorious it was Ferdinand's master stroke - his way of ensuring catholic dominance of the Empire for the future. Ferdinand's later problems with the Electors - who ended up boycotting meetings in Regensburg in protest - might be avoided here simply because the electors in Brandenburg and Saxony would be too scared of Wallenstein bringing his army south against them.
 
About the dutch economy. Dutch historians more or less agree among each other that the only reason the dutch got such a dominant role in the european trade is that it's main potential competitors (England in the first place and second France) were politicaly explosively divided (England protestants vs catholics before 1580. And king vs parlement after that. f.i.) When those two countries got their affairs finaly in order, 'De Gouden Eeuw' of the dutch economy was over.
Another point is that Holland and Zeeland also were blessed by the fact that since the 1580's there hadn't been any hostilities in those two provinces. The Spanish bringing the fight to the core of the Dutch Republic would mean in itself already a major disruption of the economy.
Religion must not be overestimated. A large majority of the population remained catholic until around 1650. They were also represented among the trading 'class'. The only thing (and that is not unimportant) is that they were exluded from government and administration.
I think more (like many others here) that when the Dutch Republic would fall to the Spanish, the tension between the centralizing force of the king and the particularism of the cities will have an paralysing effect on the economy. A lot of the Dutch trade would move away to England, Hamburg (Has anyone already thought about what happens to that one in this timeline?), and maybe Sweden or Denmark.
 
Last edited:
I just want to say to you guys this is one of the most educational and well formed thread I have ever since on this sights. Likes on the house

Ah thanks :biggrin:! Its been a really fun thread, one of the most interesting I've been apart of for a long while now.

Related question -- if the TYW is significantly shorter, how much devastation (demographic, economic, and cultural) is averted? How much had Germany already lost by, say, 1630, compared to what was lost after 1635?

The damages would still be bad but not nearly to the point of 1648. It was Swedish and then French intervention that really caused the shear devastation that characterized the Thirty years' war. Plus the war is ending with a stronger centralized monarchy, not a weak confederation. This would help speed up the recovery process.

I've seen a lot of plausible talk here on how Gustavus Adolphus could have been kept out of the war (being distracted by Poland, dying earlier, etc) with fairly late PoDs (circa 1627), so that much seems plausible.

And I wanted to ask specifically -- with a PoD in 1627 or 28, could the Edict of Restitution in 1629 be prevented altogether? Specifically, a Hapsburg victory where such a measure is never introduced?

No. Ferdinand II saw things from a Catholic interpretation of the Augsburg settlement and in that view all ecclesiastical states were to remain Catholic and led by Catholics. In his mind the Emperor was simply correcting a situation that was illegal but hadn't been enforced due to weakness on the part of his imperial predecessors. Any Imperialist victory would end up with this happening, especially considering the push to do so by the Emperor's Jesuit advisors and the Liga.
 
I found it on Kleio, that Maximilian was epileptic. Admittedly, some of the info on Kleio seems still more suspect than wikipedia - Leonardo da Vinci having married Isabella of Aragon, Dowager Duchess of Milan and had five kids by her, for instance - but they do cite their sources (most times), and the fact that the Habsburgs, and the Habsburg-Lorraines, have at least one epileptic every generation (Elisabeth, Queen of Poland; Max Ernst, Archduke of Austria; Maria Anna, Queen of Spain; Felipe Prosper, Prince of the Asturias; (I think it must've been one of the few illnesses Carlos II didn't have, since ICR reading that he was epileptic); Karl, Duke of Teschen; Ferdinand I (who had something like 50 fits a day); Rainer of Austria; etc.).

That its only mentioned once and without a source makes me inclined to dismiss it. Plus Maria Anna having epilepsy isn't mentioned in any of the sources I can find.

IIRC the Orangists were primarily landowners and military men, while the Republicans/Regents were more city and merchant based. This could really make for lots of "fun" political craziness in the Netherlands.

Yep. Lots of crazy will be happening in the North. I imagine the tensions that existed during the truce and the war would be even worse at this point. Probably works in favor of Spain sense it means the opposing factions aren't likely to work together and try to drive the Spanish out a second time. Just a thought but considering that Arminianism was seen by some to be too close to Catholicism, we could see the Remonstrants cozy up to the new Spanish government in exchange for religious concessions. I think we could see the Brussels administration be OK with such a deal.

I know that the tercios have been underappreciated in regards to their effectiveness up until the emergence of large scale musket formations.My point was more in regards to them not really having built up experience facing Swedish style armies with their combined arms approach - light cannon, swift cavalry and a ton of muskets. This means that when they finally face that type of army they are going to take a while to change their approach to warfare to fit the more dynamic formations needed for all-musket armies. The Tercio remains effective as long as the Pike remains effective, when proper bayonets become available the Tercio is going to experience severe problems. Historically the Spanish were very slow to adapt to these changes and it might catch them unaware ITTL as well. I don't think that a victorious Spain would be more likely to adapt, i think the opposite is more likely to happen. ITTL the Tercio has proven itself the most effective military unit for the last two centuries almost, that is not a legacy that is easy to change.

Another thought that occurred to me was that without Gustavus Adolphus involving himself in Germany the effectiveness of light cannon and cavalry charges might not be learned any time soon. You are likely to have Denmark follow the Swedish innovations whenever they next clash, similarly for Russia and the PLC, but Western Europe will not learn of these changes. This means that cavalry tactics remain focused around the Caracole and heavy cannon remains the mainstay of battles. I would not want to be a member of the first western army to run into the armies being developed in northern and eastern Europe. If you can keep a steady stream of northern wars running, with Russia, the PLC, Sweden and Denmark all fighting each other on a regular basis you could have two completely divergent military philosophies develop in Europe.

So basically we could see a slow development technologically and tactically in the west while a quicker advance in the east? That could be very interesting considering that its usually the opposite. At this point best bet is somewhat adaption of the Dutch reforms for Spain and perhaps copying some of the tactics used by the Empire as well. The Spanish/Dutch school remains the standard for the organization of armies in the west while in the east the Swedish organization, depending on how well the Swedes do, would become the standard for Denmark, Russia and the Commonwealth. Sounds about right? As for muskets, that I'm unsure about. Eventually they would become the standard armament, just not sure if the Spanish would take it up faster or delay it like OTL.

Something else I found while reading Thirty years war that I didn't know was that the Dutch were basically the Tony Starks of Europe at that point. By that I mean the arms-dealers of Christendom. I wonder if the Spanish would be able to take up that role after the conquest of the Republic and if so what that would mean for their army and for their economy. I wonder if it could cause a revival of industry within Spain itself or if it would have the opposite effect and make the Spaniards more economically lazy than they already were.

I think that while the Dutch would remain players in the contest they are more likely to be relegated to a third place in the competition. The Dutch merchants might just get annoyed enough with having to pay the full Sound Toll when they are used to the lowered ones they traditionally got that they switch flag to Denmark to evade them. The large degree of trade between Sweden and Spain in this case would be very profitable for the Danish King's coffers. The Sound Toll was basically what allowed the Danish kings to bypass the nobility and let them finance massive mercenary armies. This wouldn't really annoy the Spanish as such, since nothing has really changed for them. The only ones who would really feel the change in sound tolls are the formerly Dutch sailors who now have to pay the full toll. i don't think there is any way a early Kiel canal is built, I don't think the technology, resources or will are there to do so. Further, I am pretty sure at least some of the area that the canal would go through is part of the Christian's Duchies. I don't see why they would be giving up their spice trade - I think it much more likely that when it looks like the Dutch are about to fall a number of the different colonies change their colors particularly in the east indies and Caribbean where the two sides have been fighting intensely for so long and the Dutch have been largely winning. Some of the areas might even go nominally pirate for a while before they can find a benefactor. Then you could have Denmark and England, as part of the who is the leading protestant power rivalry, try to take the various colonies before their rival can. The Spanish already have a global colonial empire that is larger than they can really handle so they might just shift the Dutch focus towards the internal colonies - although then you start running into problems of monopolies and the Council of the Indies having control of all trade. The Spanish were honestly horrendous when it came to their trade policies and that definitely played a part in starting the 80YW.

There are a couple of problems with a latter-day Kalmar Union. Firstly, by this point I am pretty sure you would be in for a challenge to find a pair of countries more at odds with each other than Denmark and Sweden. The Swedish population would go crazy if there was even a hint of returning to the Union. Do remember that it is only a century ago that Christian II perpetrated the Stockholm Bloodbath. The Dano-Swedish rivalry, although at this point Sweden would still be viewed as the lesser of the two, is only 30 years from reaching its peak. I cannot imagine any way this would work out. All of this is ignoring Christina's absolute unwillingness to marry and play the proper demure wife. Christina is honestly a really interesting character and it might be fun to keep her on the throne for a longer period of time - especially considering her catholic sympathies and high degree of education which would help build ties with the Habsburgs.

Actually from my research the Dutch were still paying the full toll as of the end of the twelve years' truce in 1621, so they might not be feeling all that much of a difference financially. As for the proposed canal, tech wise it should be feasible, considering that the Canal royal en Languedoc/du Midi was a much larger behemoth and it was constructed around the same time. Resources wise I think it could happen considering how many nations hated the (supposedly) high tolls. Could be an investment by German, English, Swedish and Dutch merchants. As for the will part, Wallenstein had a lot of ideas for his territories OTL, so here he has the chance to put them into practice. Finally, looking at the map of today's canal, I think it would skirt the edge of Schleswig but not go into Danish territory. I'm not saying its likely or gonna happen, but I wouldn't discount it yet.

To the colonies and trade, I'll admit I'm weak on that subject. That being said though, I think that Spain is in a much stronger position than any Dutch refugees, Danish support or no. Portugal's reconquest of most of its colonies during the restoration war is a good example to whats likely to happen here. Spain would be at peace in Europe and in a great position to conquer the Dutch colonies or divy them up with the English. As to the trade policies, again don't know much but wasn't monopolies and attempting to centralize trade quite normal for the era, with the Dutch being more of the exception rather than the rule?

To the potential Kalmar union, I 100% agree. While it would be a cool thing to see, and would no doubt create a major Northern powerhouse, such a union would be at the end of a sword, held together by cannon and troops. Not unlike the real Kalmar union to be honest. Though I do wonder what it would take for the two to see an alliance with one another as the lesser evil. Maybe the Empire's transformation would put pressure on both to put aside differences? Or perhaps a rising Commonwealth, able to threaten Sweden and possibly control over the sound? IDK but realistically chances are both would get embroiled in another war, with Poland jumping in to try and regain Livonia. Still interesting, but not original. As to Christina, if Gustav lives she could end up radically different. He did dote on her but if she's his heiress chances are her refusal to marry isn't going to be tolerated like it was OTL. Any way you slice it Scandinavia and the Baltic will be interesting places in the mid 17th century, that's for sure!

I think you might be right about Olivares, but with his greater success do you think that his opponents would actually go to Felipe and try to get him replaced? I just got to thinking about whether there would be support for attempting to assassinate him instead. This would solve many of the problems Olivares opponents faced completely and I can see some of the members of the opposition being willing to go this far when they see Olivares trying to bring the Dutch closer to the realm. The decision to be tolerant towards the Dutch heretics could lead to a large backlash among the devout Castilian. What reaction and role might the Spanish Inquisition have in all of this?

With regards to Richelieu, I honestly don't know. He could stay and try to fight it out but I don't see how he could succeed in this case. He really is in a problematic position, he alienated the Savoyards with the Treaty of Monçon - though he was able to reconcile with them. They might be willing to work with him if they believe he would work on their behalf. This might actually prove very interesting, because with Richelieu there to guide things along he could play France and Spain off against each other and make gains for Savoy in the Mantuan Succession. This would actually give Savoy a chance to play the two (three with the Empire) against each other. With Richelieu's political abilities and a smaller drain on Savoyard finances the ground work for a strong Alpine state should be possible.

Now that could really make him the Spanish Richelieu. If I recall correctly there were multiple plots to remove Richelieu from power, either by dismissal or by violence. In a way we could see a reversal of things between France and Spain: Spain centralizes under the Crown and a powerful bureaucracy while France remains under the power of the great feudal magnates and Princes du Sang. Could be very interesting to see. As for the Inquisition, I can't see them having a role. Remember that the Inquisitorial persecutions helped cause the Dutch revolt to begin with. No one in their right mind would reintroduce it into the Netherlands and risk the whole mess starting all over again.

BTW, I've given some thought as to France after Richelieu. Chances are we'd see the Dévot party rise to power in terms of foreign policy. The heirs of the old Catholic league, they advocated opposition to the Protestants inside France and alliance with the Catholic Habsburg Monarchy abroad. They were opposed to an absolute monarchy, were supporters of Queen Marie de Médicis during her regency and were heavily opposed to Richelieu. Of course opposition to the Huguenots wouldn't be happening due to the recent royal defeat. I can't see Louis XIII wanting to risk another open defeat so soon. As for a minister, Michel de Marillac was a leading member of the Dévots and was the Surintendant des finances (Finance minister) during Richielu's early years before siding with Gaston d'Orleans and the Queen mother in the day of the Dupes. This lead to his fall, imprisonment and death. So I think we could see him play a leading role in the new royal ministry. I'll have to look into other members of this faction around this time to get a better picture for other ministers and power-players. Interesting note, the Dévots later rallied around Anne of Austria during her regency, so an earlier alliance could be in the cards TTL.

Just a thought, but could Richelieu end up serving the Emperor in Vienna? Its out there but something similar happened OTL: Prince Eugene of Savoy was a born and bred Frenchman but he ended up serving the Holy Roman Emperors after being refused a command by Louis XIV. Sure he had screwed over nearly everyone with Monçon, but that could also be an example of his talents, especially if he privately transfers the blame to the French generals and Louis XIII. He would also have a potential in via Henrietta Maria. IDK of their relationship OTL though, so that might be a black mark instead. It would fascinating to see if a succession of Richelieu and Mazarin could do for the Empire TTL what they did for France OTL. But the idea of a Savoyard Richelieu is also interesting. Perhaps it could create an Italian league or something similar. I wonder if this could lead to Savoy becoming a Prussian analogue, ie a new power this time in Italy instead of Germany. Or he could serve the Papacy. After all he was still a Cardinal and had connections to Urban VIII and the Barberini family. Really any of the three could work.

I wasn't thinking of an early open opposition, I was thinking more long term. By the late 1600s - early 1700s you could see these two powerblocks being the only ones really left with France perhaps supporting one of the sides against the other to help split them further apart. I think by that point there would be a feeling of Habsburg support being a solution rather than a problem, if they can turn the two parts of the family against each other. I am of the opinion that while the Habsburgs were better than almost any other dynasty at cooperating and working together for the greater good of the dynasty, if the Habsburgs begin to view themselves as being unchallenged they could quickly fall into infighting.

In regards to England I find it hard to imagine something like the Clarendon code passing without conflict. I think if you had the king publicly and legally back one side of the split then you could well see anyone opposed to him flock to the Puritans. Actually, now I think on it we might be able to use a more religiously motivated and active Charles as a starting point for a later conflict between Laudians and Puritans. I could be completely off here, I am not at my strongest with England's religious landscape at the time. I think that actively supporting the Laudian reforms might create fears in England that Charles is getting ready to imitate Ferdinand II in Austria pre-30YW.

Ah, I see your point. I think a later break does make much more sense and would probably be an east/west divide like I said above. Though we could see a three way later on if France and Britain ally with each other, like a neutral alliance dividing east and west. Or perhaps an Anglo-Scandinavian alliance, with France playing arbiter of Europe or as you said playing the Habsburgs against each other.

To England, I think your a bit off. Charles fully backed Laud's reforms as much as he could without summoning Parliament. And OTL there was a big fear that Charles would try to return England to the true faith, even though I can't find any source that even so much as hints towards that possibility. As to the Clarendon code, I think its difficult but doable. If the King can pack Parliament it would be a big help. Plus here the Crown has a lot more political capital than OTL, meaning a better chance of leaning on the MPs to support such acts. Though I will admit that they passed much easier OTL due to actually experiencing what a Puritan regime was like. Also, like I said above, here the Crown has been successful in its foreign policy and no doubt in at least some of its domestic plans. This weakens the opposition significantly. At this point I can't see anything like the civil war breaking out and even if it did the opposition would likely be rebels without a legal ground to stand on, severely weakening their ability to raise troops, get loans, control trade, ex,ex. I might be wrong but I think we've basically derailed the English civil war entirely! Or made it into a minorish rebellion that's put down. Hay maybe it turns into a religious uprising not unlike Bohemia, with the Puritans/Calvinists trying to call over one of the Palatinate Princes? Could be cool if a bit copycatish.

I think a dual Habsburg leadership in that way would be a step too far. The Habsburgs basically had the Mainz electorship locked down by this point and all of the Mainz Electors voted in the Habsburgs favor whenever it was necessary. I honestly can't see a reason for the Habsburgs to change the situation in this case.

Sadly I bet your right. I can't realistically see a way for Mainz, the center of the Imperial church and Archchancellor of the Empire, to fall in the hands of the Habsburgs. Trier though, I think is possible. Not sure if its more likely in 1623 and before the election of Philipp Christoph von Sötern or have him die earlier/be removed due to plotting against the Emperor. I'll have to figure that one out later.

As ben0628 put it, it was only after the Swedish intervention began that the devastation really went out of control. Prior to the Swedes intervening you had significant devastation and land confiscation in Bohemia, more limited along the Rhine where the Palatinate was located, and very limited devastation in Lower Saxony/Pomerania/Jutland.

The Swedes were the first to really exploit the massive number of mercenaries built up during the previous period and they had next to no compunction about destroying anything that got in their way. One of the estimates I have seen is that the Swedish Army - by itself - destroyed 1/3 of all castles, towns and villages in Germany. The regions that were hardest hit by the devastation were also the areas Sweden was most involved in, with Brandenburg losing 1/2 its population during the conflict - and the male population of Germany was halved.

I think it is difficult to find a more devastating conflict in European history you could argue that the world wars were more devastating, but if you consider how quickly Germany bounced back from those when compared to the centuries it took many of the population centers to come close to their former greatness.

Agreed. At this point Germany has suffered typical war damage, not the level of horror that was Sweden's total warfare. Here Germany has a chance to bounce back relatively quickly, not the century plus that it took OTL. Of course, TTL the Protestant states could be in a better position than OTL, with the influx of Dutch refugees. Though on the flip side, the Protestant states didn't seem to like the refugees that got during the Thirty years' war OTL, so really its hard to say.

I don't see how the Edict isn't proclaimed if the Habsburgs find themselves victorious it was Ferdinand's master stroke - his way of ensuring catholic dominance of the Empire for the future. Ferdinand's later problems with the Electors - who ended up boycotting meetings in Regensburg in protest - might be avoided here simply because the electors in Brandenburg and Saxony would be too scared of Wallenstein bringing his army south against them.

I can see that happening. Consider Wallenstein's statement after initial protests to the Edict: "he would teach the Electors manners. They must be dependent on the emperor, not the emperor on them." No northern threat means the army isn't tied up and considering that statement, I imagine that the Electors would be quite afraid of the Emperor turning him loose on them. So a carrot and stick method should work: threaten with Wallenstein then give them exemptions for the (three each) bishoprics they had annexed between Augsburg and then.

About the dutch economy. Dutch historians more or less agree among each other that the only reason the dutch got such a dominant role in the European trade is that it's main potential competitors (England in the first place and second France) were politically explosively divided (England protestants vs catholics before 1580. And king vs parlement after that. f.i.) When those two countries got their affairs finally in order, 'De Gouden Eeuw' of the dutch economy was over.
Another point is that Holland and Zeeland also were blessed by the fact that since the 1580's there hadn't been any hostilities in those two provinces. The Spanish bringing the fight to the core of the Dutch Republic would mean in itself already a major disruption of the economy.
Religion must not be overestimated. A large majority of the population remained catholic until around 1650. They were also represented among the trading 'class'. The only thing (and that is not unimportant) is that they were excluded from government and administration.
I think more (like many others here) that when the Dutch Republic would fall to the Spanish, the tension between the centralizing force of the king and the particularism of the cities will have an paralyzing effect on the economy. A lot of the Dutch trade would move away to England, Hamburg (Has anyone already thought about what happens to that one in this timeline?), and maybe Sweden or Denmark.

So from what I'm getting is the fall of the Republic would mean the Dutch economic power wouldn't fall to Spain but instead be divided among the rest of the northern states (ie England, France, Scandinavia and parts of the Empire). But at the same time the Catholic majority in the North would mean a smoother transition back to Spanish rule. Would the Catholic merchants be able to step into their Protestant counterparts shoes and transfer some of the Dutch economic power to the Spanish monarchy? I mean at the least control of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp means that the Spanish Netherlands remains a major player in trade, especially when combined with the New world. Doubt they would get control of the trade with Japan sense the Japanese excluded Catholics by this point but not sure about the Eastern trade routes, like with China or the East Indies. Maybe the English? IDK at this point. What do you think, does this sound about right?


BTW, for anyone interested, I cam across an interesting passage in Thirty years war: Ferdinand II planned to make Austria a Kingdom before abandoning this plan in 1623 due to opposition from his brother Archduke Leopold V of Tyrol. Apparently Leopold V was afraid that such an elevation would diminish his status within the composite monarchy and got his brother to back down. This is one of the few direct references I've ever found towards the idea of elevating Austria's status and I find it very interesting. So does anyone have more information or direct me to more information on this subject? I'd love to find out more on this plan, both for Austria in particular and if the Emperor could create new kingdoms within the Empire.
 
Yep. Lots of crazy will be happening in the North. I imagine the tensions that existed during the truce and the war would be even worse at this point. Probably works in favor of Spain sense it means the opposing factions aren't likely to work together and try to drive the Spanish out a second time. Just a thought but considering that Arminianism was seen by some to be too close to Catholicism, we could see the Remonstrants cozy up to the new Spanish government in exchange for religious concessions. I think we could see the Brussels administration be OK with such a deal.

I agree that the tensions between the factions will help the Spanish exert more control over the region, however, I think the different factions might well end up warring against each other when tensions boil over. This would mean that the Spanish have a civil war between Dutch factions that they have to police, which could become somewhat of a drain in the long run. Further, the political infighting in the northern Netherlands would likely work as a continuous reason to emigrate, either as self-imposed exile, being pushed out, or looking for greener pastures.

I am not sure how influential the Remonstants would be by this point in time, their political influence having largely been purged in the late 1610s. They were actually viewed as a non-issue by 1630 when the were allowed to practice across the United Provinces. Beyond that I still think that the Catholic Church would view Arminianism as heresy, and having emerged victorious in the conflict would, while not actively pursuing the faithful, be unwilling to compromise the faith on their behalf.

So basically we could see a slow development technologically and tactically in the west while a quicker advance in the east? That could be very interesting considering that its usually the opposite. At this point best bet is somewhat adaption of the Dutch reforms for Spain and perhaps copying some of the tactics used by the Empire as well. The Spanish/Dutch school remains the standard for the organization of armies in the west while in the east the Swedish organization, depending on how well the Swedes do, would become the standard for Denmark, Russia and the Commonwealth. Sounds about right? As for muskets, that I'm unsure about. Eventually they would become the standard armament, just not sure if the Spanish would take it up faster or delay it like OTL.

Something else I found while reading Thirty years war that I didn't know was that the Dutch were basically the Tony Starks of Europe at that point. By that I mean the arms-dealers of Christendom. I wonder if the Spanish would be able to take up that role after the conquest of the Republic and if so what that would mean for their army and for their economy. I wonder if it could cause a revival of industry within Spain itself or if it would have the opposite effect and make the Spaniards more economically lazy than they already were.

I think your description of the situation in the East and Scandinavia sounds about right, though even if Sweden finds failure the reforms done by Gustavus Adolphus would likely still be adopted by his opponents as swiftly as possible. In regards to muskets, I think that the Spanish are likely to increase the weight of firearms in their Tercios but will probably follow their OTL unwillingness to adapt fully even longer ITTL due to the lack of clear defeats for the Tercio system by this point in time. One thing that got me wondering was that if we have a series of increasingly centralizing, militant and war-like Eastern and Scandinavian states fighting it out over the next several decades you might have the entire profession professionalizing earlier. You might begin to see some of the military developments that occured in France IOTL happen in the north instead, with Depots, proper supply lines, and military staff etc. happen. I wonder how long would it take someone to think of introducing the bayonet? It was already being used for hunting by this point in time, so probably only really a question of time and someone thinking of it.

The reason that the Dutch became the arms-dealers of (Protestant) Christendom was their constant warfare with the Spanish. I think that with the internal strife, streams of refugees, incoming Spanish administration and all the other issues you would have happening in the northern Netherlands that it is likely to end up significantly reduced or moving elsewhere - Sweden with its booming steel industry seems like a logical place to go. Further, once the 30YW ends early, France is bound up in internal politics, and the Netherlands are conquered what is really left to fight over? Without constant conflicts to keep supplied might the Arms merchants and craftsmen change professions or move elsewhere?

I am of the opinion that a key reason for the Netherlands really flourishing during and in the immediate aftermath of the 80YW was the constant opposition they faced, the constant competition and need to improve if they were to survive. With the loss of the Netherlands you are likely to see widespread anger, fear and hopelessness in the middle-class and merchant classes of the Netherlands.

Actually from my research the Dutch were still paying the full toll as of the end of the twelve years' truce in 1621, so they might not be feeling all that much of a difference financially. As for the proposed canal, tech wise it should be feasible, considering that the Canal royal en Languedoc/du Midi was a much larger behemoth and it was constructed around the same time. Resources wise I think it could happen considering how many nations hated the (supposedly) high tolls. Could be an investment by German, English, Swedish and Dutch merchants. As for the will part, Wallenstein had a lot of ideas for his territories OTL, so here he has the chance to put them into practice. Finally, looking at the map of today's canal, I think it would skirt the edge of Schleswig but not go into Danish territory. I'm not saying its likely or gonna happen, but I wouldn't discount it yet.

To the colonies and trade, I'll admit I'm weak on that subject. That being said though, I think that Spain is in a much stronger position than any Dutch refugees, Danish support or no. Portugal's reconquest of most of its colonies during the restoration war is a good example to whats likely to happen here. Spain would be at peace in Europe and in a great position to conquer the Dutch colonies or divy them up with the English. As to the trade policies, again don't know much but wasn't monopolies and attempting to centralize trade quite normal for the era, with the Dutch being more of the exception rather than the rule?

To the potential Kalmar union, I 100% agree. While it would be a cool thing to see, and would no doubt create a major Northern powerhouse, such a union would be at the end of a sword, held together by cannon and troops. Not unlike the real Kalmar union to be honest. Though I do wonder what it would take for the two to see an alliance with one another as the lesser evil. Maybe the Empire's transformation would put pressure on both to put aside differences? Or perhaps a rising Commonwealth, able to threaten Sweden and possibly control over the sound? IDK but realistically chances are both would get embroiled in another war, with Poland jumping in to try and regain Livonia. Still interesting, but not original. As to Christina, if Gustav lives she could end up radically different. He did dote on her but if she's his heiress chances are her refusal to marry isn't going to be tolerated like it was OTL. Any way you slice it Scandinavia and the Baltic will be interesting places in the mid 17th century, that's for sure!

The reason I find any attempt at circumnavigating the tolls unlikely is how absolutely vital they were to the Danish finances. A Kiel canal would be a direct threat to the functioning of the Danish state, I honestly can't think of anything you could do that would cause a worse reaction in Denmark than attempting to circumvent the tolls. While a canal might be feasible in theory, though it should be mentioned the Canal du Midi took 16 years to build and an immense amount of resources under the absolutist auspices of Louis XIV helping to guide the project along and preventing any work stoppage in combination with one of the great Engineers of the age, I don't think that even Wallenstein or a conglomeration of merchants would be able to marshal the resources necessary.

I think you might be right about Spanish power in comparison to Dutch refugees, but I do think that Spain was already significantly overstretched with regards to their colonial holdings, so while they might go for the most profitable Dutch colonies - the East Indies with all the spices particularly - I think that most of the remainder: New Netherlands, Dutch West Africa, Dutch India - Coromondel, Malabar and Formosa. I think the Danes would be very quick to take over the West African, Indian and Formosan operations seeing as they were actively looking for colonies in those areas at the time. An interesting PoD in Colonial India might be having the Portugese-Ceylon conflict last longer, meaning that when the Danish expedition arrives they are able to push out the Portugese and establish sole rights to trade in Ceylon. That would give Denmark a proper starting point for involvement in India beyond what they did IOTL and provide the Danish East India Company with a lucrative starting point that would help draw the Danes into the race for colonies. So to clarify, I am suggesting that the Iberian Union takes over the Dutch East Indies and the associated Spice Islands, Denmark takes over Formosa, Ceylon (having won the race for it ITTL), Dutch India and pieces of Dutch West Africa (split with England). This leaves New Netherlands in America and the remainder of the West African colonies to England. The West African split could be the impetus for conflict between the Danes and English.

I wonder how Gustavus' marriage would develop had he lived longer, because by the time he died it really seemed to be on its last legs. At the same time a Christina growing up under Gustavus would be very interesting and probably quite a bit more martial than IOTL. I don't see any way of reconciling Denmark and Sweden any time soon, though without its rampant successes in Germany to build on I do wonder what Sweden can hope to achieve. I think a minor war between Denmark and Sweden following the end of whatever the Swedo-Polish conflict ends up being called, before turning back to the PLC. maybe Sweden takes a chance by attacking Russia? I really can't say, though it seems to me that the dynamic being prepared in this region is one of near constant small and large scale warfare while the rest of Europe, particularly Spain and France, will probably have much more peaceful mid-centuries. The HRE is likely to clash with the Ottomans at some point later on as well.

Now that could really make him the Spanish Richelieu. If I recall correctly there were multiple plots to remove Richelieu from power, either by dismissal or by violence. In a way we could see a reversal of things between France and Spain: Spain centralizes under the Crown and a powerful bureaucracy while France remains under the power of the great feudal magnates and Princes du Sang. Could be very interesting to see. As for the Inquisition, I can't see them having a role. Remember that the Inquisitorial persecutions helped cause the Dutch revolt to begin with. No one in their right mind would reintroduce it into the Netherlands and risk the whole mess starting all over again.

BTW, I've given some thought as to France after Richelieu. Chances are we'd see the Dévot party rise to power in terms of foreign policy. The heirs of the old Catholic league, they advocated opposition to the Protestants inside France and alliance with the Catholic Habsburg Monarchy abroad. They were opposed to an absolute monarchy, were supporters of Queen Marie de Médicis during her regency and were heavily opposed to Richelieu. Of course opposition to the Huguenots wouldn't be happening due to the recent royal defeat. I can't see Louis XIII wanting to risk another open defeat so soon. As for a minister, Michel de Marillac was a leading member of the Dévots and was the Surintendant des finances (Finance minister) during Richielu's early years before siding with Gaston d'Orleans and the Queen mother in the day of the Dupes. This lead to his fall, imprisonment and death. So I think we could see him play a leading role in the new royal ministry. I'll have to look into other members of this faction around this time to get a better picture for other ministers and power-players. Interesting note, the Dévots later rallied around Anne of Austria during her regency, so an earlier alliance could be in the cards TTL.

Just a thought, but could Richelieu end up serving the Emperor in Vienna? Its out there but something similar happened OTL: Prince Eugene of Savoy was a born and bred Frenchman but he ended up serving the Holy Roman Emperors after being refused a command by Louis XIV. Sure he had screwed over nearly everyone with Monçon, but that could also be an example of his talents, especially if he privately transfers the blame to the French generals and Louis XIII. He would also have a potential in via Henrietta Maria. IDK of their relationship OTL though, so that might be a black mark instead. It would fascinating to see if a succession of Richelieu and Mazarin could do for the Empire TTL what they did for France OTL. But the idea of a Savoyard Richelieu is also interesting. Perhaps it could create an Italian league or something similar. I wonder if this could lead to Savoy becoming a Prussian analogue, ie a new power this time in Italy instead of Germany. Or he could serve the Papacy. After all he was still a Cardinal and had connections to Urban VIII and the Barberini family. Really any of the three could work.

I wasn't talking about the Inquisition returning to the Netherlands. What I meant was that the Inquisition was a significant political actor in Spain at this point in time, and that it might get involved if it seems heretics are getting too close to power in Spain.

How would the Dévots interact with some of the other people we have been proposing so far? But otherwise I agree, it seems like a likely direction for the politics to go at this point in time. Maybe you could have several factions fighting for influence: The Dévots supported by Marie de Medici, the Chevreusois supported by Anne of Austria, and the Centralists made up of Richelieu's old supporters. This would certainly create an interesting dynamic, though the Centralists are likely to end up subsumed by one party or the other. This would leave Louis having to balance between his Mother and his Wife.

Regarding Richelieu I can see the appeal of a Imperial Richelieu but I don't think it likely that if he went there he would end up in a truly influential position, his history and possible french ties simply being too much of a danger to allow him true power. I think him going to Savoy would be most interesting, then having it develop as a Prussian analogue seems most interesting. Later on, once the two Habsburg sides split it would be an obvious ally of the Empire against Spanish Milan if it came to it. Maybe have Richelieu significantly more involved in papal politics than IOTL, but working from Savoy rather than from Rome? So you could have parts of all three options: Richelieu as prime minister of Savoy, allied with the Empire and involved in papal and Italian politics

Ah, I see your point. I think a later break does make much more sense and would probably be an east/west divide like I said above. Though we could see a three way later on if France and Britain ally with each other, like a neutral alliance dividing east and west. Or perhaps an Anglo-Scandinavian alliance, with France playing arbiter of Europe or as you said playing the Habsburgs against each other.

To England, I think your a bit off. Charles fully backed Laud's reforms as much as he could without summoning Parliament. And OTL there was a big fear that Charles would try to return England to the true faith, even though I can't find any source that even so much as hints towards that possibility. As to the Clarendon code, I think its difficult but doable. If the King can pack Parliament it would be a big help. Plus here the Crown has a lot more political capital than OTL, meaning a better chance of leaning on the MPs to support such acts. Though I will admit that they passed much easier OTL due to actually experiencing what a Puritan regime was like. Also, like I said above, here the Crown has been successful in its foreign policy and no doubt in at least some of its domestic plans. This weakens the opposition significantly. At this point I can't see anything like the civil war breaking out and even if it did the opposition would likely be rebels without a legal ground to stand on, severely weakening their ability to raise troops, get loans, control trade, ex,ex. I might be wrong but I think we've basically derailed the English civil war entirely! Or made it into a minorish rebellion that's put down. Hay maybe it turns into a religious uprising not unlike Bohemia, with the Puritans/Calvinists trying to call over one of the Palatinate Princes? Could be cool if a bit copycatish.

With regards to Laud and the Clarendon code, I think that a milder version of them would make sense but without the horrors of the civil war and the dangers of a Puritan state completely clear I think the Clarendon code would be a step too far. Ooooh I like the idea of Puritans calling in the Palatine Princes. Maybe have it develop into a sort of Jacobite cause sort of situation with long term Palatine claims on the English crown. Would help introduce a element of uncertainty to the English that would be fun to explore.

Sadly I bet your right. I can't realistically see a way for Mainz, the center of the Imperial church and Archchancellor of the Empire, to fall in the hands of the Habsburgs. Trier though, I think is possible. Not sure if its more likely in 1623 and before the election of Philipp Christoph von Sötern or have him die earlier/be removed due to plotting against the Emperor. I'll have to figure that one out later.

I think having Philipp Christoph von Sötern be elected and then eventually being deposed by the Habsburgs would be a good way of showing growing Habsburg authority.

Agreed. At this point Germany has suffered typical war damage, not the level of horror that was Sweden's total warfare. Here Germany has a chance to bounce back relatively quickly, not the century plus that it took OTL. Of course, TTL the Protestant states could be in a better position than OTL, with the influx of Dutch refugees. Though on the flip side, the Protestant states didn't seem to like the refugees that got during the Thirty years' war OTL, so really its hard to say.

The Dutch refugees that arrived in Scandinavia were largely welcomed and put to use by the Kings of the time, so if the protestant states find themselves annoyed at the refugees they can always seek the North.

I can see that happening. Consider Wallenstein's statement after initial protests to the Edict: "he would teach the Electors manners. They must be dependent on the emperor, not the emperor on them." No northern threat means the army isn't tied up and considering that statement, I imagine that the Electors would be quite afraid of the Emperor turning him loose on them. So a carrot and stick method should work: threaten with Wallenstein then give them exemptions for the (three each) bishoprics they had annexed between Augsburg and then.

Honestly, If Wallenstein had come south as a threat you might see a panic among the smaller protestant states though I don't see what they could do at this point in time.

So from what I'm getting is the fall of the Republic would mean the Dutch economic power wouldn't fall to Spain but instead be divided among the rest of the northern states (ie England, France, Scandinavia and parts of the Empire). But at the same time the Catholic majority in the North would mean a smoother transition back to Spanish rule. Would the Catholic merchants be able to step into their Protestant counterparts shoes and transfer some of the Dutch economic power to the Spanish monarchy? I mean at the least control of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp means that the Spanish Netherlands remains a major player in trade, especially when combined with the New world. Doubt they would get control of the trade with Japan sense the Japanese excluded Catholics by this point but not sure about the Eastern trade routes, like with China or the East Indies. Maybe the English? IDK at this point. What do you think, does this sound about right?

I think that much of the economic expertise among the northern merchant class would be lost to the Spanish and the Catholics are unlikely to take over the same roles in the future. I think you would see a massive refocusing of the Dutch merchant class towards the New World, though again you run into serious difficulties because of the various monopolies that they would need to break or become part of. Particularly the Seville monopoly on New World trade would create challenges for the Dutch traders. The Olivares government would have to make some sort of reform on this point or see the Netherlands go to ruins. But once those reforms are implemented you would have the Castilian merchants and others benefiting from the monopoly angered. I think that the more successful Olivares is in his reforms the more likely he is to get a knife to the back at some point. It might actually be an interesting way to go with this, have Olivares be too successful and end up killed in an assassination. I think you would end up with an Anglo-Danish rivalry for the Japanese and wider all of eastern trade routes. If you go with my suggestion of Denmark taking Ceylon and Formosa I think they would be well placed to take over from the Dutch.

BTW, for anyone interested, I cam across an interesting passage in Thirty years war: Ferdinand II planned to make Austria a Kingdom before abandoning this plan in 1623 due to opposition from his brother Archduke Leopold V of Tyrol. Apparently Leopold V was afraid that such an elevation would diminish his status within the composite monarchy and got his brother to back down. This is one of the few direct references I've ever found towards the idea of elevating Austria's status and I find it very interesting. So does anyone have more information or direct me to more information on this subject? I'd love to find out more on this plan, both for Austria in particular and if the Emperor could create new kingdoms within the Empire.

I can't say I have found any other references to it but raising Austria to a Kingdom would certainly be interesting. If you can get some good family drama out of it, so much the better. With Ferdinand victorious he might be tempted to return to these plans.
 
I think that much of the economic expertise among the northern merchant class would be lost to the Spanish and the Catholics are unlikely to take over the same roles in the future. I think you would see a massive refocusing of the Dutch merchant class towards the New World, though again you run into serious difficulties because of the various monopolies that they would need to break or become part of. Particularly the Seville monopoly on New World trade would create challenges for the Dutch traders. The Olivares government would have to make some sort of reform on this point or see the Netherlands go to ruins. But once those reforms are implemented you would have the Castilian merchants and others benefiting from the monopoly angered. I think that the more successful Olivares is in his reforms the more likely he is to get a knife to the back at some point. It might actually be an interesting way to go with this, have Olivares be too successful and end up killed in an assassination. I think you would end up with an Anglo-Danish rivalry for the Japanese and wider all of eastern trade routes. If you go with my suggestion of Denmark taking Ceylon and Formosa I think they would be well placed to take over from the Dutch.
I kind of want him to be successful, die, but still have his reforms hold.
 
So I have been thinking a bit about the Netherlands situation and I have a couple of things that I thought I would bring up.

By the time the Netherlands fall ITTL, they were in the early parts of the Dutch Golden Age. The Netherlands were at the center of finance, science, culture and a dozen other fields particularly for northern Europe. The Dutch were a happy expats in many protestant nations and were hired on to improve almost every aspect of life in many of these places. When Antwerp fell to the Spanish they instituted a grace period of 4 years in which people could leave for the United Provinces, I was wondering if Olivares might consider doing something similar in this case - so as to get rid of as many malcontents as possible and ease the integration of the states into the Habsburg Spanish Empire.

So what I was wondering had to do with the potential refugee population, specifically where they go from here and what they might change. You have the already massive refugee population, being a mixture of Sephardi Jews, Hussite, Calvinist and Protestant refugees from the HRE, Huguenots from France alongside refugees from the southern Netherlands and many others, in the United Provinces. These people were likely the largest conglomeration of knowledge, resources and talent up to this point and would help fuel the Dutch predominance for most of the century IOTL. ITTL They seem unlikely to stay in the Netherlands, particularly when you consider that they originally fled there to get away from Habsburg power. So it is not just parts of the Dutch population that might go refugee, but also the massive refugee population they had living with them.

Beyond the refugees from the Netherlands, you probably also have OTL's mass of refugees from Bohemia who IOTL streamed into the Netherlands, with the fall of the UP they will have to find somewhere willing to accept them and the knowledge and resources they bring with them. Many of these refugees are among the best educated and richest in the world, so its not like they won't prove to be a boon. At the same time I don't think too many will seek to go to the New World because the colonies are still too undeveloped for that to really be anything other than a last resort.

Sorry for the rather rambling post, Just came across a website on Dutch painters from the period and it got me thinking.
 
I think they would follow their business connections. It is easier to set up a new life in a place where you already know someone. You see that effect also in contemporary migration patterns. So, that's why I think the countries around the Baltic Sea would get a lot of these refugees. Especially Sweden, but also Poland, if that country holds her religious tollerance.
 
OK I haven't abandoned this discussion or plans for a TL on the Thirty years' war. I've just been super busy over the past few weeks. Didn't want anyone to think that I had.

I agree that the tensions between the factions will help the Spanish exert more control over the region, however, I think the different factions might well end up warring against each other when tensions boil over. This would mean that the Spanish have a civil war between Dutch factions that they have to police, which could become somewhat of a drain in the long run. Further, the political infighting in the northern Netherlands would likely work as a continuous reason to emigrate, either as self-imposed exile, being pushed out, or looking for greener pastures.

I am not sure how influential the Remonstants would be by this point in time, their political influence having largely been purged in the late 1610s. They were actually viewed as a non-issue by 1630 when the were allowed to practice across the United Provinces. Beyond that I still think that the Catholic Church would view Arminianism as heresy, and having emerged victorious in the conflict would, while not actively pursuing the faithful, be unwilling to compromise the faith on their behalf.

Definitely agree with you there. A Dutch civil war, even if its a short one, is likely to occur at that point. Either it will happen as a reaction over the Stadtholder attempting to surrender (think the short uprising that happened before Emperor Hirohito surrendered in 1945 but more drawn out) or shortly after the Republic falls. Of course it might not be as big a drain as you think, sense we're at the point of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", so to speak. The Spainish are likely to insist on the use of the Stadtholder's (former?) Dutch troops against the rebels. Between the Orangists and the Spanish army I think any civil war would be relatively short, as long as no one else intervenes. THEN we have a major mess on our hands.

As for the Remonstrants, that one I'm still working on. The purge happened in 1618/1619, so clearly within living memory, and chances are much of the community would have gone underground but remained semi-functional. Also, in 1619 an exiled community was founded in Antwerp, where the Remonstrant brotherhood was first founded. The choice of Antwerp also implies a certain approval or toleration from the Spanish as otherwise they would have set up shop in Germany or England. Perhaps the Spanish were aiming for a fifth column (which could be fun route to go down TTL)? I'll have to do more research but either way the Spaniards seem to have been willing to tolerate them and Arminianism could become a stepping stone towards a return to Catholicism. At least in Madrid's eyes.

Finally, to the non-issue part, I had also thought of that. It became a non-issue after the death of Prince-Stadtholder Maurice. Now from what I've read Maurice's last years in power, from his coup in 1618 to his death in 1625, did more harm than good in the Republic. Here's the link to what I'm talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years'_War#The_Republic_under_siege_.281621.E2.80.931629.29. I might be wrong but it seems to me that a longer living Maurice would make things even worse in the Republic and improve the situation for the Spanish. Having him live to the early 1630s could drive the Dutch towards their death-keel much faster. Hell that could be a good base for the fall: Maurice's politics lead to an early seclusion of the House of Orange. In response the Oranges could turn to the Spanish and cut a deal: an autonomous province for their family and in exchange they bring their supporters behind the Spanish flag. I for one think it could work but what do you think?

I think your description of the situation in the East and Scandinavia sounds about right, though even if Sweden finds failure the reforms done by Gustavus Adolphus would likely still be adopted by his opponents as swiftly as possible. In regards to muskets, I think that the Spanish are likely to increase the weight of firearms in their Tercios but will probably follow their OTL unwillingness to adapt fully even longer ITTL due to the lack of clear defeats for the Tercio system by this point in time. One thing that got me wondering was that if we have a series of increasingly centralizing, militant and war-like Eastern and Scandinavian states fighting it out over the next several decades you might have the entire profession professionalizing earlier. You might begin to see some of the military developments that occurred in France IOTL happen in the north instead, with Depots, proper supply lines, and military staff etc. happen. I wonder how long would it take someone to think of introducing the bayonet? It was already being used for hunting by this point in time, so probably only really a question of time and someone thinking of it.

The reason that the Dutch became the arms-dealers of (Protestant) Christendom was their constant warfare with the Spanish. I think that with the internal strife, streams of refugees, incoming Spanish administration and all the other issues you would have happening in the northern Netherlands that it is likely to end up significantly reduced or moving elsewhere - Sweden with its booming steel industry seems like a logical place to go. Further, once the 30YW ends early, France is bound up in internal politics, and the Netherlands are conquered what is really left to fight over? Without constant conflicts to keep supplied might the Arms merchants and craftsmen change professions or move elsewhere?

I am of the opinion that a key reason for the Netherlands really flourishing during and in the immediate aftermath of the 80YW was the constant opposition they faced, the constant competition and need to improve if they were to survive. With the loss of the Netherlands you are likely to see widespread anger, fear and hopelessness in the middle-class and merchant classes of the Netherlands.

That would be quite interesting to see. It would basically shift military innovation from France to Scandinavia, which would fit as the west would be at peace while the North becomes the central location of European warfare for the time being. It also fits well considering Denmark was the first state to make absolutism the law of the land and Sweden's crown later established a financial dominance rarely seen in other European states. Plus near continuous wars between Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Russia would necessitate the professionalization of their armies. Depending on their success we could see Scandinavia be the place European nobles go to get their military education, sort of like how many served with the Dutch States army and the Army of Flanders to build up their skills/training. The baynet could grow out of experimental by a regimental colonel that ends up being successful and adapted by the rest of whichever army we chose.

To the arms industry, there could still be markets for them to sell two, albeit smaller than OTL. The Dutch would still be the standard to judge by, so we could see the Spanish sell arms to Poland for its Baltic/Turkish/Russian wars, Venice for its wars in the Med, the Catholics in France once the religious wars reignite and probably at least one other country I'm forgetting (England if some kind of war still happens?). But I do agree that Sweden, with its steel industry and probable position as a Northern France, would be the logical choice for a new home for parts of the industry.

To the Netherlands and trade, I agree with you there. The Spanish are unlikely to be able to keep the Dutch golden age going nor are they likely to wish to. I think that the Flemish (easier to say than constantly typing southern Dutch) would take some of the trade power via reopened Antwerp but its likely that the Dutch traders would be split among the rest of the Protestant powers (and possibly Portugal sense the Portuguese had previously dominated a lot of the eastern trade before the rise of the Dutch). And to be honest, I'm more interested in the Dutch financial system than anything else. The trade routes would just be a bonus. So basically some of the trade would fall to the Spanish-Flemish (sense the Northern Catholic merchants are going to stay in place) but most would be lost. Though on the flip side it means more competition so that could be better long-term.

The reason I find any attempt at circumnavigating the tolls unlikely is how absolutely vital they were to the Danish finances. A Kiel canal would be a direct threat to the functioning of the Danish state, I honestly can't think of anything you could do that would cause a worse reaction in Denmark than attempting to circumvent the tolls. While a canal might be feasible in theory, though it should be mentioned the Canal du Midi took 16 years to build and an immense amount of resources under the absolutist auspices of Louis XIV helping to guide the project along and preventing any work stoppage in combination with one of the great Engineers of the age, I don't think that even Wallenstein or a conglomeration of merchants would be able to marshal the resources necessary.

I think you might be right about Spanish power in comparison to Dutch refugees, but I do think that Spain was already significantly overstretched with regards to their colonial holdings, so while they might go for the most profitable Dutch colonies - the East Indies with all the spices particularly - I think that most of the remainder: New Netherlands, Dutch West Africa, Dutch India - Coromondel, Malabar and Formosa. I think the Danes would be very quick to take over the West African, Indian and Formosan operations seeing as they were actively looking for colonies in those areas at the time. An interesting PoD in Colonial India might be having the Portugese-Ceylon conflict last longer, meaning that when the Danish expedition arrives they are able to push out the Portugese and establish sole rights to trade in Ceylon. That would give Denmark a proper starting point for involvement in India beyond what they did IOTL and provide the Danish East India Company with a lucrative starting point that would help draw the Danes into the race for colonies. So to clarify, I am suggesting that the Iberian Union takes over the Dutch East Indies and the associated Spice Islands, Denmark takes over Formosa, Ceylon (having won the race for it ITTL), Dutch India and pieces of Dutch West Africa (split with England). This leaves New Netherlands in America and the remainder of the West African colonies to England. The West African split could be the impetus for conflict between the Danes and English.

I wonder how Gustavus' marriage would develop had he lived longer, because by the time he died it really seemed to be on its last legs. At the same time a Christina growing up under Gustavus would be very interesting and probably quite a bit more martial than IOTL. I don't see any way of reconciling Denmark and Sweden any time soon, though without its rampant successes in Germany to build on I do wonder what Sweden can hope to achieve. I think a minor war between Denmark and Sweden following the end of whatever the Swedo-Polish conflict ends up being called, before turning back to the PLC. maybe Sweden takes a chance by attacking Russia? I really can't say, though it seems to me that the dynamic being prepared in this region is one of near constant small and large scale warfare while the rest of Europe, particularly Spain and France, will probably have much more peaceful mid-centuries. The HRE is likely to clash with the Ottomans at some point later on as well.

Your no doubt correct about the feasibility of the Kiel canal at this time, I was simply pointing out that it was possible in theory. Though I will say that if Denmark emerges as an imperial power TTL (basically OTL's Swedish Empire), then chances are we will see plans for a canal later down the road. After all France built the Canal du Midi as a way to bypass Spanish control of the straits of Gibraltar, so a TTL wish to bypass Danish control of the Sound would fit well with the era.

For Spain's colonies, I agree. So the colonies would likely be divided up among the Portuguese (who have prior claim), the English (due to a treaty with Spain) and Denmark (by right of conquest). However, I don't think the Danes are going to get all of Dutch India, at least some are likely to fall (back) into the hands of Portugal I'd say Dutch Coromandel and Malabar would go to Denmark, along with some of the southern ports but the rest are up in the air. The Dutch didn't get involved in Ceylon until 1638, which is around the year I'm thinking of for the Republic's fall. So the Danish have no set in at that point. However, I can definitely see the Danish taking over the Chinese, Korean and Japanese trade. So here's the likely division: North America and parts of West Africa go to England, the Caribbean, part of India and the East Indies go to the Iberian union, and the rest of India, some of the Pacific islands, Taiwan, and possibly Cape town goes to Denmark. I think this is the most likely division, especially as Denmark would likely be late to the party, so to say.

Now Gustavus' marriage is a very interesting point. By the time of his death Queen Maria Eleonora was pretty much losing it and I don't see her husband's survival making much difference. That creates a difficult question of what happens to the marriage. Is Maria Eleonora locked up somewhere like OTL, only this time with the marriage dissolved to allow the King a chance to remarry and have a son? Or does he endure it and accept Christina as his sole heiress? The former would be the scenario pushed for by his advisors but would be a grave insult to Brandenburg-Prussia, while the later would be more or less like OTL. I think a divorce could be a way to further push Brandenburg into the Habsburg camp, combined with the earlier Swedish "betrayal" of Prussia to Poland. This could also be a way to push Sweden into trying to improve its relationship with Denmark: a common fear of the Empire. Not likely but possible. And I agree with the rest, about the Northern wars and an Imperial-Ottoman conflict I mean.

I wasn't talking about the Inquisition returning to the Netherlands. What I meant was that the Inquisition was a significant political actor in Spain at this point in time, and that it might get involved if it seems heretics are getting too close to power in Spain.

How would the Dévots interact with some of the other people we have been proposing so far? But otherwise I agree, it seems like a likely direction for the politics to go at this point in time. Maybe you could have several factions fighting for influence: The Dévots supported by Marie de Medici, the Chevreusois supported by Anne of Austria, and the Centralists made up of Richelieu's old supporters. This would certainly create an interesting dynamic, though the Centralists are likely to end up subsumed by one party or the other. This would leave Louis having to balance between his Mother and his Wife.

Regarding Richelieu I can see the appeal of a Imperial Richelieu but I don't think it likely that if he went there he would end up in a truly influential position, his history and possible french ties simply being too much of a danger to allow him true power. I think him going to Savoy would be most interesting, then having it develop as a Prussian analogue seems most interesting. Later on, once the two Habsburg sides split it would be an obvious ally of the Empire against Spanish Milan if it came to it. Maybe have Richelieu significantly more involved in papal politics than IOTL, but working from Savoy rather than from Rome? So you could have parts of all three options: Richelieu as prime minister of Savoy, allied with the Empire and involved in papal and Italian politics.

Oh my bad. In that case I'm not sure but I imagine that the Inquisition would be at the forefront of the conservative opposition to Olivares' policies. However, I don't see Olivares employing Dutch Protestants in Spain. The Netherlands sure but not at the His Most Catholic Majesty's court. Though I can see some of the Dutch Catholics that are trained in financial matters move to Madrid and the Council of Finance, if not as Councillors than at least as advisors. Also, in a lot of ways the Spanish Inquisition was a government department, answerable more to the King than the Pope, so we could just as likely to see the more vocal critics dismissed by Felipe IV as we are to have them lead the opposition at court.

For interaction, hard to say. But I think the idea of multiple factions would fit well with the unstable politics that existed before Richelieu's rise to power. The court and government would basically be hodgepodge coalition half at war with itself and jockeying for influence between this royal and that. We're also likely to see whomever ends up as Louis XIII's favorite in this scenario become a French Buckingham without Richelieu to neutralize him. The Centralists would likely try to play both sides against each other, with varying degrees of success. This also could fit in well with one of my ideas for our favorite Cardinal that I've included below.

For Richelieu I think that's the best case scenario. It allows him to retain his power, still favor native France, transform Savoy into a rising power and opens the door to meddling in Papal affairs. Hell we could even see a Pope Richelieu: very unlikely mind you but more probable here than OTL. Of course we could also see him eventually rehabilitated in France later on: at the point of his dismissal he had yet to burn his bridges with the Queen Mother and Duc d'Orleans. I can see the two engineering his recall as a way to oppose the power of Queen Anne or as a way to fix the mess that the French government becomes. That way France isn't too weakened but is unable to respond to the developments in the Empire and the Low countries until its to late, so to say.

With regards to Laud and the Clarendon code, I think that a milder version of them would make sense but without the horrors of the civil war and the dangers of a Puritan state completely clear I think the Clarendon code would be a step too far. Ooooh I like the idea of Puritans calling in the Palatine Princes. Maybe have it develop into a sort of Jacobite cause sort of situation with long term Palatine claims on the English crown. Would help introduce a element of uncertainty to the English that would be fun to explore.

Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps it could be the result of an uprising on the parts of the Puritans, either combined with an attempt to enthrone a Palatine Prince or as a result of the Spanish match and a growing number of Catholics (think the 1554 Wyatt's rebellion). Something to make the Puritans be seen as the villains rather than victims. Plus the Clarendon code did fit in quite well with what Charles I was aiming for, so I can definitely see him trying something like that here sense Parliament isn't his avowed enemy. As for the Palatinate pretenders, I'm still unsure. It would be quite interesting to explore to be sure but IDK if that's a route I want to go down, especially considering the weakness of the Palatinate family and the effective lack of foreign support. Maybe something similar to what happened OTL, with one of the Palatine Princes flirting with the Puritans but not fully committing to them? That could work.

I think having Philipp Christoph von Sötern be elected and then eventually being deposed by the Habsburgs would be a good way of showing growing Habsburg authority.

Sounds better to me. I like the idea of the Habsburgs being able to depose Princes, secular or ecclesiastical. Though I'd bet that it would cause a bit of consternation in Rome. But on the flip side its not like the Pope could do all that much: this isn't the middle ages and the Investiture controversy. Interdicts were know longer effective, Venice had proved that back in 1606/07, and I can't see the Pope excommunicating the Emperor whose tipped the balance in favor of Catholicism. Plus this is Urban VIII we're talking about: a big enough bribe should make him accept things with no major fuss.

The Dutch refugees that arrived in Scandinavia were largely welcomed and put to use by the Kings of the time, so if the protestant states find themselves annoyed at the refugees they can always seek the North.

True. I was mainly using the exiles from Austria and Bohemia in the 1620s as a basis for how other ones would be treated. The poorer exiles were regarded as an embarrassment and a major drain of resources by many of the German states, especially Saxony. Of course that's mainly due to them not having any real skills that would help their foster homes, so experienced Dutch refugees are likely to get better treatment.

Honestly, If Wallenstein had come south as a threat you might see a panic among the smaller protestant states though I don't see what they could do at this point in time.

The smaller states would likely respond to any occupation by filling lawsuits in the Aulic Council/Reichshofrat and Imperial Chamber Court/Reichskammergericht. As long as they are loyal to the Emperor the courts are likely to decide in their favor.

I think that much of the economic expertise among the northern merchant class would be lost to the Spanish and the Catholics are unlikely to take over the same roles in the future. I think you would see a massive refocusing of the Dutch merchant class towards the New World, though again you run into serious difficulties because of the various monopolies that they would need to break or become part of. Particularly the Seville monopoly on New World trade would create challenges for the Dutch traders. The Olivares government would have to make some sort of reform on this point or see the Netherlands go to ruins. But once those reforms are implemented you would have the Castilian merchants and others benefiting from the monopoly angered. I think that the more successful Olivares is in his reforms the more likely he is to get a knife to the back at some point. It might actually be an interesting way to go with this, have Olivares be too successful and end up killed in an assassination. I think you would end up with an Anglo-Danish rivalry for the Japanese and wider all of eastern trade routes. If you go with my suggestion of Denmark taking Ceylon and Formosa I think they would be well placed to take over from the Dutch.

Don't see anything here that I disagree with. Olivares will have to fight an uphill battle to break the monopolies and integrate the Dutch economic powers, but it would ultimately be worth it. And as long as he retains the confidence of his sovereign he's good. This is very likely considering how long he remained in power OTL despite several failures and the fact that TTL Olivares has basically done the impossible and ended a seventy year long conflict with a complete and total victory. Not sure about an assassination, mainly because I'm not sure who would/could succeed Olivares and still continue his reforms, but it could be interesting. Finally, I included the stuff on the Dutch/Danish/English in an above section.

I can't say I have found any other references to it but raising Austria to a Kingdom would certainly be interesting. If you can get some good family drama out of it, so much the better. With Ferdinand victorious he might be tempted to return to these plans.

I'd love to get details on this plan before deciding to incorporate it into this TL. I know that in theory and in practice the Emperor could create a new Kingdom (case in point the plans of Charles the Bold of Burgundy and Emperor Friedrich III and the later elevation of Prussia) but this would involve elevating his own estates, something that had never been attempted OTL. Plus I'm not sure if detaching Austria from Germany would be a good thing or not with the Empire beginning to coalesce into a centralized monarchy under the Emperor.

The best bet would be to make the HRE a hereditary monarchy under the House of Habsburg, making the de-facto de-jure. Of course the main problem with that would be the opposition of the Electors. Hm... maybe make the crown hereditary in the male line descendants of Emperor Ferdinand I? That way there's no danger of inheritance by Spain, and add a codicil allowing the Electors to select a new Emperor/dynasty if the male line goes extinct. Perhaps a law similar to that of Tanistry, making the Habsburgs the only ones that can be elected but leaving the individual up to the Electors? Or give the Electors the right to "confirm" an Emperor, with the German-Roman Kingship hereditary by the Imperial Crown not? I'll have to work in this one.

So I have been thinking a bit about the Netherlands situation and I have a couple of things that I thought I would bring up.

By the time the Netherlands fall ITTL, they were in the early parts of the Dutch Golden Age. The Netherlands were at the center of finance, science, culture and a dozen other fields particularly for northern Europe. The Dutch were a happy expats in many protestant nations and were hired on to improve almost every aspect of life in many of these places. When Antwerp fell to the Spanish they instituted a grace period of 4 years in which people could leave for the United Provinces, I was wondering if Olivares might consider doing something similar in this case - so as to get rid of as many malcontents as possible and ease the integration of the states into the Habsburg Spanish Empire.

So what I was wondering had to do with the potential refugee population, specifically where they go from here and what they might change. You have the already massive refugee population, being a mixture of Sephardi Jews, Hussite, Calvinist and Protestant refugees from the HRE, Huguenots from France alongside refugees from the southern Netherlands and many others, in the United Provinces. These people were likely the largest conglomeration of knowledge, resources and talent up to this point and would help fuel the Dutch predominance for most of the century IOTL. ITTL They seem unlikely to stay in the Netherlands, particularly when you consider that they originally fled there to get away from Habsburg power. So it is not just parts of the Dutch population that might go refugee, but also the massive refugee population they had living with them.

Beyond the refugees from the Netherlands, you probably also have OTL's mass of refugees from Bohemia who IOTL streamed into the Netherlands, with the fall of the UP they will have to find somewhere willing to accept them and the knowledge and resources they bring with them. Many of these refugees are among the best educated and richest in the world, so its not like they won't prove to be a boon. At the same time I don't think too many will seek to go to the New World because the colonies are still too undeveloped for that to really be anything other than a last resort.

Sorry for the rather rambling post, Just came across a website on Dutch painters from the period and it got me thinking.

I think a grace period to leave would be a good choice and quite likely as a way to, as you said, get rid of potential threats and malcontents. As for your other point, I hadn't actually thought of the refugee population that already existed in the Netherlands. Those with the resources

The newer refugees and the Jews will obviously try to take advantage of the grace period to leave for greener pastures, but it will depend on what resources they have and what if any the Spaniards and Protestant nations offer, like providing transportation for example. However, I imagine a good good amount, likely the older generation of refugees like the Huguenots and southern Dutch, will likely stay, either due to a lack of means/resources to leave or an unwillingness to abandon yet another home. There are also those who, despite being at odds religiously with the Spanish, will stay for economic or political advantages. After all the Spanish are going to need local administrators to integrate the Republic into the Seventeen Provinces and there would definitely be rewards for collaborating with the new regime.

For the Jews, I think they're likely to head to England. Stuart England was generally quite tolerant towards them, though this is before they regained citizenship under Charles II. On the other hand this could cause a restoration of rights to happen a few decades earlier. Along with the Jews I can see some of the Bohemian and Palatinate refugees going to England due to the connections of the Stuarts and Palatine Wittelsbachs. All the others though are likely to have to go to Scandinavia and Germany, maybe Switzerland if the Swiss are feeling generous.

BTW, I did find a few interesting things in my new book on the Spanish match, The Prince and the Infanta by Glyn Redworth. King James offered a joint Anglo-Spanish campaign against the Dutch, with whom the English had little love. That this was offered gives credence to a TTL cooperation between London and Madrid against The Hague and to an English route for the Spanish road. Also I've given further thoughts for the possible route: we could possibly the connection go from Spain to Ireland, where the Spanish could recruit troops, then to Bristol and on to the Netherlands. This addition would be due to fears of an interception by the Dutch fleet (the Spaniards already had secure routes to Ireland) and as a way to recruit additional men.

I think they would follow their business connections. It is easier to set up a new life in a place where you already know someone. You see that effect also in contemporary migration patterns. So, that's why I think the countries around the Baltic Sea would get a lot of these refugees. Especially Sweden, but also Poland, if that country holds her religious tolerance.

Hadn't thought of Poland but that would also be a possibility. Hell it could end up being a big boost to the Commonwealth as it would potentially give the Crown new financial resources outside of the nobility's control.
 
A united HRE? A centralized Spain and Commonwealth? United Netherlands? POPE RICHELIE?!? Sir, I can only be so aroused.
 
Definitely agree with you there. A Dutch civil war, even if its a short one, is likely to occur at that point. Either it will happen as a reaction over the Stadtholder attempting to surrender (think the short uprising that happened before Emperor Hirohito surrendered in 1945 but more drawn out) or shortly after the Republic falls. Of course it might not be as big a drain as you think, sense we're at the point of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", so to speak. The Spainish are likely to insist on the use of the Stadtholder's (former?) Dutch troops against the rebels. Between the Orangists and the Spanish army I think any civil war would be relatively short, as long as no one else intervenes. THEN we have a major mess on our hands.

As for the Remonstrants, that one I'm still working on. The purge happened in 1618/1619, so clearly within living memory, and chances are much of the community would have gone underground but remained semi-functional. Also, in 1619 an exiled community was founded in Antwerp, where the Remonstrant brotherhood was first founded. The choice of Antwerp also implies a certain approval or toleration from the Spanish as otherwise they would have set up shop in Germany or England. Perhaps the Spanish were aiming for a fifth column (which could be fun route to go down TTL)? I'll have to do more research but either way the Spaniards seem to have been willing to tolerate them and Arminianism could become a stepping stone towards a return to Catholicism. At least in Madrid's eyes.

Finally, to the non-issue part, I had also thought of that. It became a non-issue after the death of Prince-Stadtholder Maurice. Now from what I've read Maurice's last years in power, from his coup in 1618 to his death in 1625, did more harm than good in the Republic. Here's the link to what I'm talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years'_War#The_Republic_under_siege_.281621.E2.80.931629.29. I might be wrong but it seems to me that a longer living Maurice would make things even worse in the Republic and improve the situation for the Spanish. Having him live to the early 1630s could drive the Dutch towards their death-keel much faster. Hell that could be a good base for the fall: Maurice's politics lead to an early seclusion of the House of Orange. In response the Oranges could turn to the Spanish and cut a deal: an autonomous province for their family and in exchange they bring their supporters behind the Spanish flag. I for one think it could work but what do you think?

While I agree that a a short civil war is likely to occur right around the time of surrender, which the Stadtholder is likely to win with Spanish aid, I also think that there will be a long period of unrest even after a victorious civil war. This can be limited by allowing people to leave, but when you consider the sheer level of obstinacy many of the Dutch political elites and their supporters reached at this time and later I have a hard time imagining them simply rolling over and accepting defeat. They would go straight back to passive resistance and attempt to build up a anti-Orangist movement. Any move to suppress the movement would then put either the Orangists or the Spanish, likely both, in a bad light and validate the positions set out by the rebels. Who would be able to intervene in the fighting at this point, the Scandinavians are well and truly distracted, the protestants of the HRE are in serious danger of suppression themselves, and the English were integral to the fall of the republic to begin with.

If we are going with a longer-lived Maurice then you need to take into consideration that he was one of the main opponents of the Remonstrants and was central to their suppression with the Remonstrants only slowly returning after Maurice's death, which also brought the Calvinists back to power. From what I can see the Remonstrants were indeed used by the Spanish to expose the internal weaknesses of the Dutch republic. With a longer-lived Maurice you have the Counter-Remonstrants, who were absolute fanatics, in power longer which keeps tensions in the republic high. At the same time you have Maurice with his non-stop entreaties for peace which could expand into him dumping the rest of the republic if his family can make it out on top. My read of it is also that without the Mantuan War swallowing up massive troop numbers the Spanish are able to keep up the pressure. What you really need is to change Spinola's mind on sieges, maybe have him see the fall of Breda as a reason to add siege warfare to the commercial warfare he was undertaking. If you can simultaneously limit dutch financial resources and bring the English in on the Spanish side instead of on the Dutch side the Dutch should crack.

That would be quite interesting to see. It would basically shift military innovation from France to Scandinavia, which would fit as the west would be at peace while the North becomes the central location of European warfare for the time being. It also fits well considering Denmark was the first state to make absolutism the law of the land and Sweden's crown later established a financial dominance rarely seen in other European states. Plus near continuous wars between Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Russia would necessitate the professionalization of their armies. Depending on their success we could see Scandinavia be the place European nobles go to get their military education, sort of like how many served with the Dutch States army and the Army of Flanders to build up their skills/training. The baynet could grow out of experimental by a regimental colonel that ends up being successful and adapted by the rest of whichever army we chose.

To the arms industry, there could still be markets for them to sell two, albeit smaller than OTL. The Dutch would still be the standard to judge by, so we could see the Spanish sell arms to Poland for its Baltic/Turkish/Russian wars, Venice for its wars in the Med, the Catholics in France once the religious wars reignite and probably at least one other country I'm forgetting (England if some kind of war still happens?). But I do agree that Sweden, with its steel industry and probable position as a Northern France, would be the logical choice for a new home for parts of the industry.

To the Netherlands and trade, I agree with you there. The Spanish are unlikely to be able to keep the Dutch golden age going nor are they likely to wish to. I think that the Flemish (easier to say than constantly typing southern Dutch) would take some of the trade power via reopened Antwerp but its likely that the Dutch traders would be split among the rest of the Protestant powers (and possibly Portugal sense the Portuguese had previously dominated a lot of the eastern trade before the rise of the Dutch). And to be honest, I'm more interested in the Dutch financial system than anything else. The trade routes would just be a bonus. So basically some of the trade would fall to the Spanish-Flemish (sense the Northern Catholic merchants are going to stay in place) but most would be lost. Though on the flip side it means more competition so that could be better long-term.

Scandinavian warfare could get quite interesting. You could have the Danes building fortresses along the Norwegian border with Sweden with them being on the defensive commonly while the Swedes take a more offensive outlook. Dano-Swedish border as the most fortified border, while Sweden goes on its long marches through Poland and Russia.

On the Spanish arms trade I just wanted to point out that Spain and Venice were almost constantly at odds with them being rivals for control of the Mediterranean IIRC. My main worry with regards to Spanish takeover of the Netherlands is that they always took a very mercantalist approach to trade and economics, relying on state monopolies enforced by limiting trading routes and the like. Their reliance on those approaches aren't likely to change any time soon and would cause numerous headaches for the Dutch merchants. The Dutch financial abilities and their rise to prominence were also predicated on the degree of freedom they were able to act with and the fact that they could help finance businesses and the like. Without the proto-capitalist environment of the Dutch Republic I am not sure how effective they will prove.

Your no doubt correct about the feasibility of the Kiel canal at this time, I was simply pointing out that it was possible in theory. Though I will say that if Denmark emerges as an imperial power TTL (basically OTL's Swedish Empire), then chances are we will see plans for a canal later down the road. After all France built the Canal du Midi as a way to bypass Spanish control of the straits of Gibraltar, so a TTL wish to bypass Danish control of the Sound would fit well with the era.

For Spain's colonies, I agree. So the colonies would likely be divided up among the Portuguese (who have prior claim), the English (due to a treaty with Spain) and Denmark (by right of conquest). However, I don't think the Danes are going to get all of Dutch India, at least some are likely to fall (back) into the hands of Portugal I'd say Dutch Coromandel and Malabar would go to Denmark, along with some of the southern ports but the rest are up in the air. The Dutch didn't get involved in Ceylon until 1638, which is around the year I'm thinking of for the Republic's fall. So the Danish have no set in at that point. However, I can definitely see the Danish taking over the Chinese, Korean and Japanese trade. So here's the likely division: North America and parts of West Africa go to England, the Caribbean, part of India and the East Indies go to the Iberian union, and the rest of India, some of the Pacific islands, Taiwan, and possibly Cape town goes to Denmark. I think this is the most likely division, especially as Denmark would likely be late to the party, so to say.

Now Gustavus' marriage is a very interesting point. By the time of his death Queen Maria Eleonora was pretty much losing it and I don't see her husband's survival making much difference. That creates a difficult question of what happens to the marriage. Is Maria Eleonora locked up somewhere like OTL, only this time with the marriage dissolved to allow the King a chance to remarry and have a son? Or does he endure it and accept Christina as his sole heiress? The former would be the scenario pushed for by his advisors but would be a grave insult to Brandenburg-Prussia, while the later would be more or less like OTL. I think a divorce could be a way to further push Brandenburg into the Habsburg camp, combined with the earlier Swedish "betrayal" of Prussia to Poland. This could also be a way to push Sweden into trying to improve its relationship with Denmark: a common fear of the Empire. Not likely but possible. And I agree with the rest, about the Northern wars and an Imperial-Ottoman conflict I mean.

I think a better comparison for Denmark would the Dutch republic at its height tbh, with their commercial and financial interests coupled to a need to defend against foreign encroachment on their borderlands. I think that if Sweden and Denmark at some point started aligning their interests (although it is incredibly hard to imagine that happening in this time period) that would be enough to serve as impetus for the establishment of a Kiel Canal. However the building of a canal would serve as the perfect pretext for Swedo-Danish attacks into northern Germany with their well-trained professional armies.

I have been looking closely at Dutch India and I think that Dutch Malabar would end up going to the Portugese, there simply isn't any way I can see them going for Denmark. However I do think Denmark is poised to take everything else, particularly because they were themselves establishing forts and trade posts there at the same time. These areas are the Coromondel coast, considering the already existing danish fort at Tanjor and Masulipatnam, the Bengal, where the danish tradeposts at Pipli and Balasore gave them a starting point, and Suratte in Gujarat. Particularly the colonies in the Coromondel region would set up for a significant show-down between Denmark and Portugal over Ceylon and the rest of southern India within a couple of decades, likely by the 1640s. I think the split you suggested makes sense, though I disagree with the Danes being late to the game. By 1600 they were looking for any colonies they could get their hands on, and from 1610 onwards they were highly focused on India, the reason Danish efforts in India ended up unsuccessful was particularly Dutch pressure that forced them out, in this situation they are set to dominate the area. I think Denmark, if they didn't capture at least a little of the Dutch Gold Coast, would establish their own trading posts in the region to allow their ships to get to India. For the same reason I think you would have Danes establishing a resupply base on the Cape of Good Hope, maybe picking up an island or two in the Indian Ocean, to secure the trade route.

Who would be a good match for Gustavus if he divorced Maria Eleonora? I am unsure of quite how ASB it would be, but what about a Frederik III match with Kristina as sovereign queen of Sweden? She would be a couple years older than Frederik's OTL wife and if there is enough fear of the Empire it might be enough to push them together. Maybe if the Habsburgs start supporting the Polish Wasa dynasty in their fighting against Sweden... I think it would be very difficult to manage and almost impossible to keep together longer than the reigns of Frederik and Kristina, but it might be possible. on the other hand, if you have GA2 go through with the divorce, marry and have a son then a Frederik/Kristina match to pause the Scandinavian rivalry might work as well since we are considering ways of pausing or bringing an end to the Dano-Swedish conflict. The betrothal could follow a Dano-Swedish war after the Swedo-Polish war we have been discussing earlier.

One thing, on the Danes. With Christian IV coming out of this entire thing in a better position and with significantly more prestige than OTL, Frederik III would probably be able to avoid signing the "håndfæstning" charter which significantly weakened his position while strengthening Rigsraadet. This would then set him up to implement Absolutism almost 13 years earlier and as such act much more forcefully. This goes into the whole Scandinavia at the forefront of political thought. You could have Gustavus go through with the taxation of the nobility that Christian X would go through with IOTL (i am pretty sure it was discussed throughout Kristina's reign as well but she was against it IOTL). Scandinavia is turning out to be very interesting in TTL.

Oh my bad. In that case I'm not sure but I imagine that the Inquisition would be at the forefront of the conservative opposition to Olivares' policies. However, I don't see Olivares employing Dutch Protestants in Spain. The Netherlands sure but not at the His Most Catholic Majesty's court. Though I can see some of the Dutch Catholics that are trained in financial matters move to Madrid and the Council of Finance, if not as Councillors than at least as advisors. Also, in a lot of ways the Spanish Inquisition was a government department, answerable more to the King than the Pope, so we could just as likely to see the more vocal critics dismissed by Felipe IV as we are to have them lead the opposition at court.

For interaction, hard to say. But I think the idea of multiple factions would fit well with the unstable politics that existed before Richelieu's rise to power. The court and government would basically be hodgepodge coalition half at war with itself and jockeying for influence between this royal and that. We're also likely to see whomever ends up as Louis XIII's favorite in this scenario become a French Buckingham without Richelieu to neutralize him. The Centralists would likely try to play both sides against each other, with varying degrees of success. This also could fit in well with one of my ideas for our favorite Cardinal that I've included below.

For Richelieu I think that's the best case scenario. It allows him to retain his power, still favor native France, transform Savoy into a rising power and opens the door to meddling in Papal affairs. Hell we could even see a Pope Richelieu: very unlikely mind you but more probable here than OTL. Of course we could also see him eventually rehabilitated in France later on: at the point of his dismissal he had yet to burn his bridges with the Queen Mother and Duc d'Orleans. I can see the two engineering his recall as a way to oppose the power of Queen Anne or as a way to fix the mess that the French government becomes. That way France isn't too weakened but is unable to respond to the developments in the Empire and the Low countries until its to late, so to say.

My point regarding the Inquisition was more about their role as a political actor in the Spanish court that ensured heresy was kept out as much as possible. They were almost an entity onto themselves and their opposition to a policy or act would be highly disruptive. They would seem like an obvious source of legitimacy for any opponents of Olivares. I like the idea of catholic Dutch being brought in to assist but again, it seems likely to piss off the Castillians.

French politics are going to be interesting in a Chinese sense of a while, that is for sure. Which faction would be most interesting as winners in the infighting I wonder, and who could this french Buckingham be... In my experience the centralists rarely survive the crossfire between two opposing factions, i think it is likely they end up split between factions without a strong leader like Richelieu to control and support them.

I think Pope Richelieu would be a step too far, but you might see a protege raised up instead. Further, while I think he would involve himself in the mess of French politics, I don't see him returning to the top once more. I think that Savoy might be the best spot for him TBH, able to join in papal and french politics while helping develop the Alpine state into something more substantial than OTL. France isn't going to have a fun time of it for at least the next couple decades, but they will remain an incredibly powerful force if they ever are able to turn their focus outward. Would the Huguenot presence necessarily result in a re-ignition of the Wars of Religion, or could a equitable Status Quo be possible?

Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps it could be the result of an uprising on the parts of the Puritans, either combined with an attempt to enthrone a Palatine Prince or as a result of the Spanish match and a growing number of Catholics (think the 1554 Wyatt's rebellion). Something to make the Puritans be seen as the villains rather than victims. Plus the Clarendon code did fit in quite well with what Charles I was aiming for, so I can definitely see him trying something like that here sense Parliament isn't his avowed enemy. As for the Palatinate pretenders, I'm still unsure. It would be quite interesting to explore to be sure but IDK if that's a route I want to go down, especially considering the weakness of the Palatinate family and the effective lack of foreign support. Maybe something similar to what happened OTL, with one of the Palatine Princes flirting with the Puritans but not fully committing to them? That could work.

You need some inciting event to get the Clarendon code passed, that is where an abortive palatine uprising comes in. However, it could also simply be a bunch of puritans rising up and then calling for a Palatine to take the English Throne following a bit of flirting, the palatine saying no way, and the rebels being crushed. This could happen following the Palatines fleeing the Hague when the republic falls and living in England. Lots of nice intrigues to go with there.

Sounds better to me. I like the idea of the Habsburgs being able to depose Princes, secular or ecclesiastical. Though I'd bet that it would cause a bit of consternation in Rome. But on the flip side its not like the Pope could do all that much: this isn't the middle ages and the Investiture controversy. Interdicts were know longer effective, Venice had proved that back in 1606/07, and I can't see the Pope excommunicating the Emperor whose tipped the balance in favor of Catholicism. Plus this is Urban VIII we're talking about: a big enough bribe should make him accept things with no major fuss.

At this point in time I am pretty sure that ecclesiasticals were being elected in most of the theocratic states. Urban isn't likely to be all that bothered TBH. I do wonder what happens with the papal states in TTL and who ends up pope this time around once the butterflies start flapping.

True. I was mainly using the exiles from Austria and Bohemia in the 1620s as a basis for how other ones would be treated. The poorer exiles were regarded as an embarrassment and a major drain of resources by many of the German states, especially Saxony. Of course that's mainly due to them not having any real skills that would help their foster homes, so experienced Dutch refugees are likely to get better treatment.

The smaller states would likely respond to any occupation by filling lawsuits in the Aulic Council/Reichshofrat and Imperial Chamber Court/Reichskammergericht. As long as they are loyal to the Emperor the courts are likely to decide in their favor.

The exiles are going to have a significant effect on every aspect of life in the remaining protestant nations. I wonder what happens once the Clarendon code is passed in England and all the non-Anglicans find themselves limited. Where will they go now? The New World, Scandinavia, or France seem the only places left to go. This is all going to have so many interesting effects.

Don't see anything here that I disagree with. Olivares will have to fight an uphill battle to break the monopolies and integrate the Dutch economic powers, but it would ultimately be worth it. And as long as he retains the confidence of his sovereign he's good. This is very likely considering how long he remained in power OTL despite several failures and the fact that TTL Olivares has basically done the impossible and ended a seventy year long conflict with a complete and total victory. Not sure about an assassination, mainly because I'm not sure who would/could succeed Olivares and still continue his reforms, but it could be interesting. Finally, I included the stuff on the Dutch/Danish/English in an above section.

It is precisely because of his incredible successes that i think Olivares would be in danger. IOTL he was a unpopular man taking a shit duty, but someone needed to do it. In this case, he has emerged more successful than anyone would think possible and is likely being heaped with honors by the king and anyone else trying to curry favour with those in power. At the same time he is making highly unpopular reforms in Aragon, weakening the nobility of Castile, working with heretics in the Netherlands and alot more. He is far more involved in domestic politics without the distractions posed by warfare and as such can dedicate himself to making these immense changes. However change is rarely appreciated, and often downright hated - particularly at this point in time. My though was that you could have him achieve many of the reforms we have already discussed but then have him killed, maybe when trying to reform the Casa de Contración on the advice of Dutch experts. This would then give you an excuse to break with the Casa's dominance of trade and reform trade in the name of the martyred Olivares. Who succeeds him I don't know, but it could be some protege or other of Olivares, don't know who either atm.

I'd love to get details on this plan before deciding to incorporate it into this TL. I know that in theory and in practice the Emperor could create a new Kingdom (case in point the plans of Charles the Bold of Burgundy and Emperor Friedrich III and the later elevation of Prussia) but this would involve elevating his own estates, something that had never been attempted OTL. Plus I'm not sure if detaching Austria from Germany would be a good thing or not with the Empire beginning to coalesce into a centralized monarchy under the Emperor.

The best bet would be to make the HRE a hereditary monarchy under the House of Habsburg, making the de-facto de-jure. Of course the main problem with that would be the opposition of the Electors. Hm... maybe make the crown hereditary in the male line descendants of Emperor Ferdinand I? That way there's no danger of inheritance by Spain, and add a codicil allowing the Electors to select a new Emperor/dynasty if the male line goes extinct. Perhaps a law similar to that of Tanistry, making the Habsburgs the only ones that can be elected but leaving the individual up to the Electors? Or give the Electors the right to "confirm" an Emperor, with the German-Roman Kingship hereditary by the Imperial Crown not? I'll have to work in this one.

Maybe the Habsburgs go on a round of King raising for the electors in return for a hereditary monarchy and dumping the election mechanism. I think it is unlikely that something like Tanistry is put forward, either continued elections or get rid of them all together in return for a number of concessions. the important part is that the electors want to ensure that they remain important to the running of the state.

I think a grace period to leave would be a good choice and quite likely as a way to, as you said, get rid of potential threats and malcontents. As for your other point, I hadn't actually thought of the refugee population that already existed in the Netherlands. Those with the resources

The newer refugees and the Jews will obviously try to take advantage of the grace period to leave for greener pastures, but it will depend on what resources they have and what if any the Spaniards and Protestant nations offer, like providing transportation for example. However, I imagine a good good amount, likely the older generation of refugees like the Huguenots and southern Dutch, will likely stay, either due to a lack of means/resources to leave or an unwillingness to abandon yet another home. There are also those who, despite being at odds religiously with the Spanish, will stay for economic or political advantages. After all the Spanish are going to need local administrators to integrate the Republic into the Seventeen Provinces and there would definitely be rewards for collaborating with the new regime.

For the Jews, I think they're likely to head to England. Stuart England was generally quite tolerant towards them, though this is before they regained citizenship under Charles II. On the other hand this could cause a restoration of rights to happen a few decades earlier. Along with the Jews I can see some of the Bohemian and Palatinate refugees going to England due to the connections of the Stuarts and Palatine Wittelsbachs. All the others though are likely to have to go to Scandinavia and Germany, maybe Switzerland if the Swiss are feeling generous.

BTW, I did find a few interesting things in my new book on the Spanish match, The Prince and the Infanta by Glyn Redworth. King James offered a joint Anglo-Spanish campaign against the Dutch, with whom the English had little love. That this was offered gives credence to a TTL cooperation between London and Madrid against The Hague and to an English route for the Spanish road. Also I've given further thoughts for the possible route: we could possibly the connection go from Spain to Ireland, where the Spanish could recruit troops, then to Bristol and on to the Netherlands. This addition would be due to fears of an interception by the Dutch fleet (the Spaniards already had secure routes to Ireland) and as a way to recruit additional men.

Hadn't thought of Poland but that would also be a possibility. Hell it could end up being a big boost to the Commonwealth as it would potentially give the Crown new financial resources outside of the nobility's control.

I am not sure about the old refugees staying put, they weren't all that poor - the republic was honestly a miracle worker when it came to integrating them into society, they were often among the societal elite. I think the Huguenots might begin moving back to France actually following their victory in the Anglo-French war. the Southern Dutch had to flee once before from the same people coming for them now, so they are likely to do as they have in the past, pack up their valuables and move to a place more to their liking. At the same time I think you are right about the Jewish, Palatine and Bohemian refugees going to England - although whether they stay following the Clarendon Code is another question I think we need to consider, and if you take up my suggestion on the Wittelbachs then there would be good reason for the Stuarts to want the Palatine and Bohemians gone as well. This probably means a massive number of dutch end up in Scandinavia, which would then help with the whole setting up of Scandinavia as a powerhouse later on.

With regards to the Irish, wouldn't the English worry about Irish rebellions when these well trained and bloodied veterans return with all of their skills to Ireland? But otherwise it is interesting that the route was suggested OTL.

;)! If your interested I can PM you some of the more detailed ideas I have so far.

I would love to be involved in this if possible. I am very interested in how this project turns out as you might have guessed :p .
 
WRT cavalry tactics, there is very little direct evidence that pistol wielding cuirassiers actually fired from a distance in a "caracole"-they would normally charge in and shoot their pistols point blank to pierce their heavily armoured counterparts armour, while carbine wielding cavalry called Harquebusiers gave them fire support in a manner that more closely resembles the "caracole"-this combined arms system was actually quite similar to infantry pike and shot.

What Gustavus changed was having his cavalry wear lighter harquebusier amour while using aggressive sword-and-pistol tactics, the resultant cavalry being known as Light Horse or Demi-Cuirassiers, and replacing the Harquebusiers in their fire support role with dismounted dragoons, light guns and detached musketeers. His tactics showed that lightly armoured cavalry(by the standards of the day, they would be cuirassiers by Napoleonic standards!) could be just as effective as the Cuirassiers equipped with cumbersome, bulletproof 3/4th armour(eg full plate with the lower leg armour removed).
 
Top