Thirty Years' War if Hungary is united?

[Fehérvári]

Let's say, that the Habsburgs successfully defeat the Turks in the Long Turkish War and banish them from Hungary entirely. If we assume, that the "30 Year's War" still takes place in some form or other, how could things play out differently? I'm looking forward for your answers!

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Let's say, that the Habsburgs successfully defeat the Turks in the Long Turkish War and banish them from Hungary entirely. If we assume, that the "30 Year's War" still takes place in some form or other, how could things play out differently? I'm looking forward for your answers!

Is Hungary Catholic led? If yes then Bohemia is screwed. If yes but it still has large Protestant nobles then there will be Civil War + likely another war with the Ottomans. If the Ottomans lose Hungary so soon and see a chance to return they really will go for it, so this time Hungary is screwed.

The Habsburgs might be in a worse position with Hungary recently being reconquered though.

 

[Fehérvári]

Is Hungary Catholic led? If yes then Bohemia is screwed. If yes but it still has large Protestant nobles then there will be Civil War + likely another war with the Ottomans. If the Ottomans lose Hungary so soon and see a chance to return they really will go for it, so this time Hungary is screwed.

The Habsburgs might be in a worse position with Hungary recently being reconquered though.

Protestantism is strong in Hungary, but much less so, than IOTL. Transylvania was under Catholic, pro-Habsburg rule for decades at this point, while the nobility from Royal Hungary did not develop their anti-Habsburg, protestant tendencies just yet. Another factor is the ownership of the reclaimed lands. Those who want to get their lands back, or to get some extra, they have to be Catholic and loyal to the Habsburgs. Therefore, most of the protestants would be townsmen or from the lesser nobility, but they wouldn't matter much.

I think the Ottomans were quite busy with the Persians at this point, so I don't think they could do much. I might be wrong though.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Protestantism is strong in Hungary, but much less so, than IOTL. Transylvania was under Catholic, pro-Habsburg rule for decades at this point, while the nobility from Royal Hungary did not develop their anti-Habsburg, protestant tendencies just yet. Another factor is the ownership of the reclaimed lands. Those who want to get their lands back, or to get some extra, they have to be Catholic and loyal to the Habsburgs. Therefore, most of the protestants would be townsmen or from the lesser nobility, but they wouldn't matter much.

I think the Ottomans were quite busy with the Persians at this point, so I don't think they could do much. I might be wrong though.

The Persian War was over by 1612, entirely in 1618. Just during the start of the 30 years war. In OTL Osman II wanted to help the Protestants but for some reason attack Poland-Lithuania instead of Vienna. God knows why.

 

[Fehérvári]

I see. Could the Ottoman treasure handle a war with the Habsburgs though? Also, if the Turks attack before 1623, I could see the Thirty Years' War not happening/being postponed, which is kinda against my hopes regarding this thread.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I see. Could the Ottoman treasure handle a war with the Habsburgs though? Also, if the Turks attack before 1623, I could see the Thirty Years' War not happening/being postponed, which is kinda against my hopes regarding this thread.

Ottoman treasury handled continous war from 1578 to 1618. That is about 40 years of war and 5 sultans. Of course with handled I mean still had problems but could field Armies on two fronts. With just an Austrian front (at first) it could handle it.

The biggest problem for the Ottomans I see is Osman II. He is young and not experienced yet. But the butterflies of losing Hungary may affect the lives of Mehmed III or at least Ahmed I to live maybe... a little longer. Or even Sehzade Mahmud becoming Sultan as he was 18 when he was strangled.

The 30 years war being postponed depends on the course of war. I don't see the Bohemians suddenly agree to join the hated Ferdinand II just to fight the Ottomans.

What do you actually want from your scenario? Why is it against your hopes?

 

[alexmilman]

Is Hungary Catholic led? If yes then Bohemia is screwed.

Bohemia was screwed in OTL so no difference there.

If yes but it still has large Protestant nobles then there will be Civil War + likely another war with the Ottomans. If the Ottomans lose Hungary so soon and see a chance to return they really will go for it, so this time Hungary is screwed.

The Habsburgs might be in a worse position with Hungary recently being reconquered though.

IMO, you are missing an important point: if the Hapsburgs managed to conquer all Hungary prior to the 30YW this means that they are MUCH stronger militarily than in OTL. Which, in turn, means that Bohemia is squashed even before it starts rebelling seriously. It also means that the Protestant princes in Germany would think twice before starting any anti-imperial activities. In that framework even if the Hungarian Protestants start an uprising, situation is somewhat similar to one during the Wars of the Spanish Succession: the Hapsburgs are strong enough to operate on two fronts (with a good chance that the German front simply does not happen and that Hungary is being attacked by the PLC).